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11:41 WTI Oil struggles to return above $65.00 amid expectations of another supply hike
WTI Crude Prices are picking up from two-week lows, but they remain about $12 below the previous Monday highs, as the peace in the Middle East and market expectations that OPEC+ countries will agree on another supply hike this week, are keeping upside attempts limited.Trading action is showing minor
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WTI Crude Prices are picking up from two-week lows, but they remain about $12 below the previous Monday highs, as the peace in the Middle East and market expectations that OPEC+ countries will agree on another supply hike this week, are keeping upside attempts limited.
Trading action is showing minor gains on Monday, yet with prices constrained within the previous days’ range around $65.00, with the $66.00 level capping bulls for now.Higher supply and lower demand expectations are weighing on pricesInvestors are anticipating a highly likely agreement to increase supply by 411,000 barrels per day for the fourth consecutive time this year, which, in the context of a soft global economic outlook, is likely to lead to an oversupplyIn China, the NBS Manufacturing PMI revealed that factory activity contracted for the third consecutive month in June, weighed by weak demand and an uncertain trade context. The US economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, and the Eurozone is struggling. These numbers point to a weak demand for Oil in the coming months
Furthermore, the ongoing peace between Israel and Iran has eased concerns about a potential disruption of global supply if the conflict spilled into a full-blown regional war. This is adding negative pressure on prices. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
WTI Crude Prices are picking up from two-week lows, but they remain about $12 below the previous Monday highs, as the peace in the Middle East and market expectations that OPEC+ countries will agree on another supply hike this week, are keeping upside attempts limited.
Trading action is showing minor gains on Monday, yet with prices constrained within the previous days’ range around $65.00, with the $66.00 level capping bulls for now.Higher supply and lower demand expectations are weighing on pricesInvestors are anticipating a highly likely agreement to increase supply by 411,000 barrels per day for the fourth consecutive time this year, which, in the context of a soft global economic outlook, is likely to lead to an oversupplyIn China, the NBS Manufacturing PMI revealed that factory activity contracted for the third consecutive month in June, weighed by weak demand and an uncertain trade context. The US economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, and the Eurozone is struggling. These numbers point to a weak demand for Oil in the coming months
Furthermore, the ongoing peace between Israel and Iran has eased concerns about a potential disruption of global supply if the conflict spilled into a full-blown regional war. This is adding negative pressure on prices. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
11:31 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) climbed from previous 3.2% to 3.5% in May
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) climbed from previous 3.2% to 3.5% in May
11:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) below expectations (£4.1B) in May: Actual (£2.91B)
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) below expectations (£4.1B) in May: Actual (£2.91B)
11:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) increased to 0.2% in May from previous 0%
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) increased to 0.2% in May from previous 0%
11:29 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals above forecasts (59.75K) in May: Actual (63.032K)
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals above forecasts (59.75K) in May: Actual (63.032K)
11:29 United Kingdom Consumer Credit below expectations (£1.1B) in May: Actual (£0.859B)
United Kingdom Consumer Credit below expectations (£1.1B) in May: Actual (£0.859B)
11:29 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals registered at 63.03K above expectations (59.75K) in May
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals registered at 63.03K above expectations (59.75K) in May
11:28 USD/CHF sticks around 0.8000 following KOF Leading Indicator Survey
USD/CHF remains steady following a five-day losing streak, trading around 0.7990 during the European hours on Monday. The pair sticks around 0.7957, the lowest since September 2011, recorded on Friday.
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The pair sticks around 0.7957, the lowest since September 2011, recorded on Friday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) moves little against the US Dollar (USD) after the KOF Leading Indicator was released in Switzerland, which fell to 96.1 in June from 98.6 in May. The readings came below market forecasts of 99.3, marking the lowest reading since October 2023.Earlier this month, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates to 0% in response to easing inflationary pressures and indicated it may move into negative territory if downside risks persist. The Swiss central bank warned, in its Q2 Bulletin, that global trade risks could weigh on growth, forecasting GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% this year.The USD/CHF pair faced challenges as the US Dollar struggles amid rising expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates at the September meeting. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, noted on Friday that he was sticking to his view that cooling inflation would allow the Fed to cut its policy rate twice that year, beginning in September.Data showed on Friday that US Personal Spending unexpectedly fell in May, the second decline this year. Meanwhile, US Personal income dropped by 0.4% in May, the largest decrease since September 2021. Traders will likely observe US labor market data scheduled to be released later this week to gain further impetus on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Economic Indicator KOF Leading Indicator The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator is released by the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research and it's a joint survey with leading indicator which measures future trends of the overall economic activity. It captures the movement of GDP growth and the economic trend in Switzerland. An optimistic view is considered as bullish for the CHF, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as bearish. Read more. Last release: Mon Jun 30, 2025 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 96.1 Consensus: 99.3 Previous: 98.5 Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute
11:12 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) up to 0.1% in June from previous 0%
Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) up to 0.1% in June from previous 0%
11:12 Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.3% in June
Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.3% in June
11:06 Spain Current Account Balance declined to €1.36B in April from previous €1.42B
Spain Current Account Balance declined to €1.36B in April from previous €1.42B
11:05 US Dollar Index falls to near 97.00 near three-year lows
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is continuing its losing streak that began on June 19, while trading around 97.20 during the European hours on Monday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index has fallen to 96.98, the lowest since March 2022, as recorded on Monday.The US Dollar loses ground as traders expect that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September.President Trump said that “One great big beautiful bill is moving along nicely!”The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is continuing its losing streak that began on June 19, while trading around 97.20 during the European hours on Monday. Traders await US employment figures scheduled to be released later in the week, which may further offer fresh impetus on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.The US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show the economy added 110,000 new jobs in June, down from 135,000 in May. The estimated range is currently between a high of 140,000 and a low of 75,000. Moreover, Unemployment is anticipated to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%.The US Dollar struggles amid rising expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates at the September meeting. Data showed on Friday that US Personal Spending unexpectedly fell in May, the second decline this year. Meanwhile, US Personal income dropped by 0.4% in May, the largest decrease since September 2021.US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday, saying, “One great big beautiful bill is moving along nicely!” The Trump Administration has gotten costs down, very substantially, for the American Consumer. There has never been anything like this!The US Dollar received downward pressure from Friday’s dovish comments from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, who noted that he was sticking to his view that cooling inflation would allow the Fed to cut its policy rate twice that year, beginning in September.However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted last week that Trump's tariff policies may cause a one-time price hike, but they could also lead to more persistent inflation. The Fed should be careful in considering further rate cuts. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% 0.05% -0.22% -0.14% 0.01% -0.24% 0.00% EUR -0.05% -0.04% -0.24% -0.20% -0.06% -0.28% -0.05% GBP -0.05% 0.04% -0.41% -0.16% -0.02% -0.26% -0.01% JPY 0.22% 0.24% 0.41% 0.09% 0.29% 0.03% 0.28% CAD 0.14% 0.20% 0.16% -0.09% 0.10% -0.10% 0.17% AUD -0.01% 0.06% 0.02% -0.29% -0.10% -0.24% 0.00% NZD 0.24% 0.28% 0.26% -0.03% 0.10% 0.24% 0.25% CHF -0.01% 0.05% 0.01% -0.28% -0.17% -0.01% -0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
11:03 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) up to 2.4% in June from previous 2.3%
Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) up to 2.4% in June from previous 2.3%
11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in June
Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in June
11:02 Italy Public Deficit/GDP rose from previous 0.4% to 8.5% in 1Q
Italy Public Deficit/GDP rose from previous 0.4% to 8.5% in 1Q
11:01 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) up to 0.2% in June from previous 0%
Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) up to 0.2% in June from previous 0%
11:01 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.2% in June
Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.2% in June
11:01 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) remains unchanged at 3.8% in May
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) remains unchanged at 3.8% in May
11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2% to 1.8% in June
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2% to 1.8% in June
11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.2% to -0.1% in June
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.2% to -0.1% in June
11:01 Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) in line with forecasts (2%) in May
Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) in line with forecasts (2%) in May
11:01 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) up to 2.3% in June from previous 2.2%
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) up to 2.3% in June from previous 2.2%
11:01 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) increased to 0.2% in June from previous -0.1%
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) increased to 0.2% in June from previous -0.1%
11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 1.8% (June) vs previous 2.1%
Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 1.8% (June) vs previous 2.1%
11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM): -0.1% (June) vs previous 0.1%
Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM): -0.1% (June) vs previous 0.1%
11:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 3.9%, below expectations (4%) in May
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 3.9%, below expectations (4%) in May
10:39 USD/CAD retreats below 1.3700 as Canada resumes trade talks with the US
The US Dollar is giving away most of the ground taken in the previous two trading days.
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The US Dollar is giving away most of the ground taken in the previous two trading days. The positive risk sentiment following the announcement that the trade talks between Canada and the US will continue has boosted confidence in the CAD, pushing the US Dollar back below the 1.3700 level to hit intraday lows at 1.3650 so far.
On Sunday, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that the trade negotiations with the US will resume this week, af ter the country withdrew the digital services tax that caused the end of the negotiations last week.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump announced the suspension of the trade discussions with Canada, complaining about the digital tax, which he called a “direct and blatant attack on our Country (sic).” The US Dollar rallied after the news, hitting session highs right above 1.3755.çCanada's economy contracted in AprilOn the macroeconomic front, an unexpected contraction of Canada’s economy in April increased bearish pressure on the Canadian Dollar. Canada’s monthly GDP shrank by 0.1% against expectations of a flat performance, with weak manufacturing activity, highlighting the negative impact of trade tensions.
The pair, however, seems to have resumed the broader bearish trend, as the risk-on mood and hopes of a trade deal keep supporting the CAD, in spite of the falling oil prices.
Beyond that, the progress of Trump’s sweeping tax bill and growing hopes of Fed cuts in the coming months are likely to keep the US Dollar on the defensive today, with all eyes on a slew of US employment data, which will provide further clues on the US central bank’s easing calendar. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (MoM) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Canada during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Canadian economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jun 27, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -0.1% Consensus: 0% Previous: 0.1% Source:
The US Dollar is giving away most of the ground taken in the previous two trading days. The positive risk sentiment following the announcement that the trade talks between Canada and the US will continue has boosted confidence in the CAD, pushing the US Dollar back below the 1.3700 level to hit intraday lows at 1.3650 so far.
On Sunday, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that the trade negotiations with the US will resume this week, af ter the country withdrew the digital services tax that caused the end of the negotiations last week.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump announced the suspension of the trade discussions with Canada, complaining about the digital tax, which he called a “direct and blatant attack on our Country (sic).” The US Dollar rallied after the news, hitting session highs right above 1.3755.çCanada's economy contracted in AprilOn the macroeconomic front, an unexpected contraction of Canada’s economy in April increased bearish pressure on the Canadian Dollar. Canada’s monthly GDP shrank by 0.1% against expectations of a flat performance, with weak manufacturing activity, highlighting the negative impact of trade tensions.
The pair, however, seems to have resumed the broader bearish trend, as the risk-on mood and hopes of a trade deal keep supporting the CAD, in spite of the falling oil prices.
Beyond that, the progress of Trump’s sweeping tax bill and growing hopes of Fed cuts in the coming months are likely to keep the US Dollar on the defensive today, with all eyes on a slew of US employment data, which will provide further clues on the US central bank’s easing calendar. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (MoM) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Canada during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Canadian economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jun 27, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -0.1% Consensus: 0% Previous: 0.1% Source:
10:36 Forex Today: US Dollar stays under pressure on last day of H1
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 30:
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Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 30:The US Dollar (USD) Index, which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, continues to push lower on the last day of June after losing more than 1.5% in the previous week. The economic calendar will feature inflation data from Germany and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index from the US. Several policymakers from major central bankers will be delivering speeches throughout the day as well. US Dollar PRICE This month The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -3.07% -1.61% -0.13% -1.04% -1.43% -1.78% -3.04% EUR 3.07% 1.54% 3.01% 2.09% 1.73% 1.65% 0.03% GBP 1.61% -1.54% 1.46% 0.58% 0.20% -0.05% -1.46% JPY 0.13% -3.01% -1.46% -0.91% -1.21% -1.51% -2.85% CAD 1.04% -2.09% -0.58% 0.91% -0.31% -0.62% -2.01% AUD 1.43% -1.73% -0.20% 1.21% 0.31% -0.07% -1.66% NZD 1.78% -1.65% 0.05% 1.51% 0.62% 0.07% -1.59% CHF 3.04% -0.03% 1.46% 2.85% 2.01% 1.66% 1.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said over the weekend that the drop in the USD this year is normal variance, adding that the US still has a strong USD policy. Since the beginning of 2025, the USD Index is down about 12% and it was last seen trading at its weakest level since March 2022 at around 97.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures gain between 0.4% and 0.6% in the European morning on Monday, reflecting a risk-positive market atmosphere.The UK government announced in a press release on Monday that the UK-US trade deal has officially come into force. UK car manufacturers can now export to the US under a reduced 10% tariff quota and the UK aerospace sector will have 10% tariffs on goods like engines and aircraft parts removed. Following the previous week's rally, GBP/USD stays relatively quiet and moves sideways slightly above 1.3700.EUR/USD clings to small daily gains above 1.1700 in the European morning on Monday. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver an introductory speech at the opening reception and dinner of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades below 144.00 in the European session on Monday. Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Monday that he will continue working with the United States (US) to reach an agreement while defending national interest.Following Friday's sharp decline, Gold started the week on the back foot and touched its weakest level since late May below $3,250 before staging a rebound toward $3,300.Canada's Finance Ministry said in a statement early Monday that they will rescind digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US and noted that Canada's PM Mark Carney and President Donald Trump agreed that parties will resume negotiations to agree on a deal by July 21. USD/CAD edges slightly lower at the beginning of the week and trades at around 1.3660. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
10:01 Turkey Trade Balance came in at -6.65B, below expectations (-6.5B) in May
Turkey Trade Balance came in at -6.65B, below expectations (-6.5B) in May
10:01 Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -3.5% in May from previous -0.2%
Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -3.5% in May from previous -0.2%
10:01 Austria Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.1% (May) vs -0.9%
Austria Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.1% (May) vs -0.9%
10:00 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD edges higher above $36.00, Bullish outlook remains intact
The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher to near $36.20 during the early European session on Monday. Traders raise their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates more times this year and possibly sooner than previously expected.
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The positive view of the Silver prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator. The immediate resistance level emerges at $36.84; the first support level to watch is $35.28.The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher to near $36.20 during the early European session on Monday. Traders raise their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates more times this year and possibly sooner than previously expected. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and underpins the USD-denominated commodity price, as a weaker USD makes Silver cheaper for foreign buyers.Technically, the constructive outlook of Silver remains in place as the white metal is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 57.40, displaying bullish momentum in the near term. On the bright side, the first upside barrier for XAG/USD is located at $36.84, the high of June 26. A decisive break above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for $37.40, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next resistance level is seen at the $38.00 psychological level. In the bearish case, the low of June 24 at $35.28 acts as an initial support level for Silver. A breach of this level could drag the metal toward $34.85, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The additional downside filter to watch is $33.60, the 100-day EMA. Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
09:52 US President Trump: One great big beautiful bill is moving along nicely!
US President Donald Trump said in his latest post on Truth Social on Monday, “one great big beautiful bill is moving along nicely!”
US President Donald Trump said in his latest post on Truth Social on Monday, “one great big beautiful bill is moving along nicely!”Additional quotesThe Trump Administration has gotten costs down, very substantially, for the American Consumer.
There has never been anything like this!Market reactionTrump’s comments fail to offer any support to the US Dollar against its major peers, as the US Dollar Index sheds 0.39% on the day to 97.03.
There has never been anything like this!Market reactionTrump’s comments fail to offer any support to the US Dollar against its major peers, as the US Dollar Index sheds 0.39% on the day to 97.03.
09:34 Japan's Akazawa: Still working with US to reach an agreement
Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Monday that he will continue working with the United States (US) to reach an agreement while defending national interest.
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Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Monday that he will continue working with the United States (US) to reach an agreement while defending national interest.Key quotesWill continue working with the US to reach an agreement while defending national interest.
Aware of Trump's comment on autos, will decline to talk about it.
It was unfortunate I couldn't meet Bessent this time.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.45% lower on the day to trade at 143.98. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Aware of Trump's comment on autos, will decline to talk about it.
It was unfortunate I couldn't meet Bessent this time.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.45% lower on the day to trade at 143.98. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
09:15 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds toward 1.3750 near multi-year highs
The GBP/USD pair retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3730 during the Asian hours on Monday. The bullish bias persists as the daily chart’s technical analysis indicates that the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD may find resistance at 1.3770, the highest since October 2021.A break above the 70 mark would signal overbought conditions, suggesting a potential downward correction ahead.The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 1.3635.The GBP/USD pair retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3730 during the Asian hours on Monday. The bullish bias persists as the daily chart’s technical analysis indicates that the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below the 70 level, strengthening the bullish bias. However, a breach above the 70 mark would indicate an oversold situation and a downward correction soon. Additionally, the GBP/USD pair rises above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting the short-term price momentum is stronger.On the upside, the GBP/USD pair is poised to test the 1.3770, the highest since October 2021, which was recorded on June 26, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A successful breach above this crucial resistance zone could reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the psychological level of 1.3800.The GBP/USD pair could find the initial support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3634. A break below this level could weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to test the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3460, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3426. Further declines could open the doors for the pair to navigate the region around the two-month low at 1.3139, recorded on May 12.GBP/USD: Daily Chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:14 NZD/USD strengthens above 0.6060 as US Dollar weakness continues
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory for six consecutive days around 0.6080 during the early European session on Monday. Rising bets of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
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The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory for six consecutive days around 0.6080 during the early European session on Monday. Rising bets of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The Fed officials are set to speak later on Monday, including Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee.Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that the country’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May. This figure came in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.5 in June versus 50.3 prior, stronger than the expectation of 50.3. The encouraging Chinese economic data provide some support to the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. Furthermore, investors interpreted Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to US Congress last week as dovish. This, in turn, continues to undermine the Greenback and acts as a tailwind for NZD/USD. The markets have priced in nearly 92.4% chance of one quarter-point Fed rate reduction, up from 70% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch tool. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
09:07 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $64.82 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $64.54.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $64.82 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $64.54.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is stable, hovering around its previous daily close at $66.33. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:04 German Retail Sales rise 1.6% YoY in May vs. 2.3% previous
Retail Sales in Germany unexpectedly dropped 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in May, following the 1.1% decline reported in April, according to official data released by Destatis on Monday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Retail Sales in Germany rose 1.6% over the year in May.EUR/USD defends bids above 1.1700 following the downbeat data.Retail Sales in Germany unexpectedly dropped 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in May, following the 1.1% decline reported in April, according to official data released by Destatis on Monday.The market forecast was for a 0.5% increase.On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 1.6% in May vs. April’s 2.3%.Market reactionThese data has limited impact on the Euro (EUR). At the press time, EUR/USD is trading 0.04% higher on the day at 1.1725. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% -0.12% -0.32% -0.23% -0.17% -0.47% -0.04% EUR -0.04% -0.20% -0.34% -0.29% -0.24% -0.51% -0.09% GBP 0.12% 0.20% -0.34% -0.09% -0.04% -0.33% 0.11% JPY 0.32% 0.34% 0.34% 0.08% 0.20% -0.12% 0.33% CAD 0.23% 0.29% 0.09% -0.08% 0.01% -0.24% 0.19% AUD 0.17% 0.24% 0.04% -0.20% -0.01% -0.29% 0.14% NZD 0.47% 0.51% 0.33% 0.12% 0.24% 0.29% 0.44% CHF 0.04% 0.09% -0.11% -0.33% -0.19% -0.14% -0.44% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
09:03 South Africa Private Sector Credit up to 4.98% in May from previous 4.6%
South Africa Private Sector Credit up to 4.98% in May from previous 4.6%
09:01 United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-23.456B below forecasts (£-19.7B) in 1Q
United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-23.456B below forecasts (£-19.7B) in 1Q
09:01 United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) below expectations (8.1%) in 1Q: Actual (6.1%)
United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) below expectations (8.1%) in 1Q: Actual (6.1%)
09:01 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.5%) in May: Actual (-1.6%)
Germany Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.5%) in May: Actual (-1.6%)
09:00 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (1.3%) in 1Q
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (1.3%) in 1Q
09:00 Germany Import Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.7%, below expectations (-0.4%) in May
Germany Import Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.7%, below expectations (-0.4%) in May
09:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 1.6% in May from previous 2.3%
Germany Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 1.6% in May from previous 2.3%
09:00 Germany Import Price Index (YoY) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.8%) in May
Germany Import Price Index (YoY) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.8%) in May
09:00 United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) came in at 3.9%, below expectations (5.8%) in 1Q
United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) came in at 3.9%, below expectations (5.8%) in 1Q
09:00 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q
09:00 United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-23.5B below forecasts (£-19.7B) in 1Q
United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-23.5B below forecasts (£-19.7B) in 1Q
08:08 AUD/USD appreciates to near 0.6550 following MI Inflation Gauge, China’s NBS PMI data
AUD/USD gains ground after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 0.6540 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger following the release of economic data from Australia.
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The pair remains stronger following the release of economic data from Australia.TD-MI Inflation Gauge edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, reversing a 0.4% previous decline. The rise came even as both headline and underlying inflation continued to ease within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2–3% target range.Australia's Private Sector Credit climbed to 0.5% month-over-month in May, against the market expectations and the prior month's 0.7% rise. The slowdown was primarily due to a deceleration in business loans, which eased to 0.8% from 1% in April.In Australia’s close trading partner, China, NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) advanced to 49.7 in June, compared with 49.5 in May. The data came in line with the market consensus in the reported month. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in June versus May’s 50.3 and the expected 50.3 reading.The AUD/USD pair also draws support from the subdued US Dollar (USD), driven by the increasing odds of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cutting interest rates at the September meeting. Data showed on Friday that US Personal Spending unexpectedly fell in May, the second decline this year. Meanwhile, US Personal income dropped by 0.4% in May, the largest decrease since September 2021.Traders await key US labor data scheduled to be released later in the week to gain a further idea of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to show 110,000 new jobs added, down from 135,000 in May. Markets currently estimate the range between a high of 140,000 and a low of 75,000. Moreover, Unemployment is anticipated to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
08:07 USD/JPY attracts some sellers below 144.00 on weaker US Dollar
The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers to around 143.85 during the Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid rising bets of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts.
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Expectations for earlier Fed interest rate cuts undermine the US Dollar. Traders brace for the Fedspeak later on Monday ahead of the BoJ’s Q2 Tankan survey. The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers to around 143.85 during the Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid rising bets of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. Later on Monday, the Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are set to speak. The United States (US) and China are close to a tariff deal. However, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly ended trade discussions with Canada, adding uncertainty to the market's positive outlook. Additionally, traders bet that the US central bank will cut rates more times and possibly sooner than previously expected. The markets are pricing in nearly 92.4% odds of one quarter-point Fed rate reduction, up from 70% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool. About the data, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.3% YoY in May, compared to 2.2% in April (revised from 2.1%), according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday. This reading came in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.7% in May, following the 2.6% increase (revised from 2.5%) seen in April. On the other hand, the cautious stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) around raising interest rates could weigh on the JPY and create a tailwind for the pair. Looking ahead, traders will keep an eye on the BoJ’s upcoming quarterly Tankan survey for the second quarter (Q2), due later on Tuesday, for fresh impetus. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:00 Japan Construction Orders (YoY) fell from previous 52.7% to 14% in May
Japan Construction Orders (YoY) fell from previous 52.7% to 14% in May
07:58 FX option expiries for Jun 30 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jun 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Jun 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1400 1.1b1.1500 1.5b1.1625 903m1.1650 3.2b1.1700 2.4b1.1750 1.7b1.1775 956m1.1800 1.4b1.1850 931mGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3500 578m1.3600 1b1.4000 921mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.00 761m143.85 1.1b145.00 720m145.50 1.6b146.00 695m147.00 722mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8000 2bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6425 1.1bUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3600 801m1.3650 799m1.3705 653m
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,010.69 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,998.38 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 105,098.90 per tola from INR 104,955.30 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,010.69 10 Grams 90,107.03 Tola 105,098.90 Troy Ounce 280,269.10
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price gains momentum on increased optimism of a Fed rate cut
“The slowdown in geopolitics has offered an opportunity for investors to start taking profit because of the forward-looking prospects of some kind of kinetic war with China and the developments in the Middle East,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
Top US President Donald Trump advisers said on Friday that agreements with as many as a dozen of the US’s largest trading partners are expected to be completed by the July 9 deadline, per Bloomberg.
US Personal Spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in May, the second decline this year, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday. Meanwhile, US Personal income dropped by 0.4% in May, the largest decrease since September 2021.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.3% YoY in May, compared to 2.2% in April (revised from 2.1%), the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. This reading came in line with market expectations.
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.7% in May, following the 2.6% increase (revised from 2.5%) seen in April. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index and the core PCE Price Index increased 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:22 UK Government: UK-US trade deal has officially come into force
The United Kingdom (UK) government announced in a press release on Monday that “the UK-US trade deal has officially come into force.”
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The United Kingdom (UK) government announced in a press release on Monday that “the UK-US trade deal has officially come into force.”Additional takeawaysUK car manufacturers can now export to the US under a reduced 10% tariff quota.
UK aerospace sector will have 10% tariffs on goods like engines and aircraft parts removed.Market reactionThe above statements fail to move the needle around the Pound Sterling (GBP). The GBP/USD pair is currently trading flat at 1.3715. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
UK aerospace sector will have 10% tariffs on goods like engines and aircraft parts removed.Market reactionThe above statements fail to move the needle around the Pound Sterling (GBP). The GBP/USD pair is currently trading flat at 1.3715. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
07:20 USD/INR edges higher as strengthening Oil prices weigh on Indian Rupee
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after registering gains in the previous two sessions. The USD/INR pair appreciates probably as the higher crude Oil prices put downward pressure on the INR.
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The USD/INR pair appreciates probably as the higher crude Oil prices put downward pressure on the INR. It is important to note that India is one of the largest crude Oil importers in the world. Traders await a slew of economic figures from India on Monday, including Industrial Output, Manufacturing Output, and Trade Deficit.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading around $64.70 per barrel at the time of writing. However, the upside of the Crude Oil prices could be limited amid easing fears over supply disruptions, driven by the Middle East ceasefire. Moreover, OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, is set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following a similar hike already planned for July.The Indian Rupee gained ground due to strong foreign inflows. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought Indian equities worth Rs 8,915 crore into Indian equities so far this June. Analysts note that this renewed interest reflects confidence in India’s economic growth story and the market’s underlying strength.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee holds losses amid a stable US DollarThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading higher at around 97.20 at the time of writing. US employment figures are scheduled to be released later in the week, which may further offer fresh impetus on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.The US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show the economy added 110,000 new jobs in June, down from 135,000 in May. The estimated range is currently between a high of 140,000 and a low of 75,000. Moreover, Unemployment is anticipated to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%.The US Dollar may struggle amid rising expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates at the September meeting. Data showed on Friday that US Personal Spending unexpectedly fell in May, the second decline this year. Meanwhile, US Personal income dropped by 0.4% in May, the largest decrease since September 2021.US President Donald Trump may announce a successor for Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell by September or October. Trump might consider former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, according to the Wall Street Journal.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that the political waves are not a factor in decision-making, nor would the naming of a shadow chair, per CNBC.Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted on Wednesday that Trump's tariff policies may cause a one-time price hike, but they could also lead to more persistent inflation. The Fed should be careful in considering further rate cuts.Economists have projected a slightly slower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in India for the current financial year ending in March at 6.4%, compared to 6.5% growth seen last year, according to a poll from Reuters. Economists have projected a slower growth despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) having front-loaded interest rate cuts.Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds gains around 85.50The USD/INR pair holds modest gains near 85.50 on Monday, falling below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a weaker short-term price momentum.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, indicating a persistent bearish bias.On the downside, the monthly low at 85.30 appears as the immediate support. Meanwhile, the nine-day EMA at 85.81 could act as the primary barrier.USD/INR: Daily Chart Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:59 WTI holds steady near $64.50 on easing risk in Middle East
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $64.50 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The WTI price trades on a flat note amid an easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of another OPEC+ output hike in August.
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Israel-Iran ceasefire and the prospect of more OPEC+ supply weigh on the WTI price. OPEC+ is set to raise August output by another 411,000 bpd. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $64.50 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The WTI price trades on a flat note amid an easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of another OPEC+ output hike in August. The Israel-Iran ceasefire eases geopolitical risks in the Middle East as investors expect a truce between both countries will reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the region. This, in turn, could drag the WTI lower in the near term. The market has stripped out most of the geopolitical risk premium built into the price following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, said IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) said the group was set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar-size output increases for May, June and July. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on July 6, and this would be the fifth monthly hike since the group started unwinding production cuts in April.However, the upbeat Chinese economic data might provide some support to the black gold, as China is the world's second-largest consumer of oil and gas. Data released on Monday showed that China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7 in June versus 49.5 prior. This figure came in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.5 in June, compared to May’s 50.3 and the 50.3 expected. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
05:42 USD/CAD falls to near 1.3650 due to improving Oil prices
USD/CAD loses ground, trading around 1.3670 during the Asian hours on Monday. The USD/CAD pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from improving Oil prices. This is important to note that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
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The USD/CAD pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from improving Oil prices. This is important to note that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading around $64.70 per barrel at the time of writing. However, the upside of the Crude Oil prices could be limited amid easing fears over supply disruptions, driven by the Middle East ceasefire. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump noted that he might support sanctions relief on Iran if it can be peaceful. Moreover, reports indicated that OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, was prepared to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following a similar hike already planned for July.Canada's Finance Ministry stated on Sunday that it will “rescind digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the United States (US). Canada's PM Mark Carney and President Donald Trump agreed that parties will resume negotiations to agree on a deal by July 21.The upside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) struggles, as traders expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates at the September meeting. Data showed on Friday that US Personal Spending unexpectedly fell in May, the second decline this year. Meanwhile, US Personal income dropped by 0.4% in May, the largest decrease since September 2021.A slew of key US employment figures is scheduled to be released later in the week, which may further offer fresh impetus on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. The June US payrolls report is expected to show the economy added 110,000 new jobs, down from 135,000 in May – the estimate range is currently between a high of 140,000 and a low of 75,000. Moreover, Unemployment is anticipated to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
05:29 Gold price drifts lower amid improved market sentiment
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline during Asian trading hours on Monday. A trade deal reached between the US and China last week on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US was viewed positively by markets.
Gold price drifts lower in Monday’s Asian session. The improved risk sentiment undermines the Gold price, a safe-haven asset. Traders brace for the Fedspeak later on Monday for a fresh impetus. The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline during Asian trading hours on Monday. A trade deal reached between the US and China last week on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US was viewed positively by markets. The US-China trade agreement, along with the ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran boosts risk appetite and diminishes bullion's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset.Nonetheless, rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates more times this year and possibly sooner than previously expected might undermine the Greenback and support the USD-denominated commodity price as a weaker USD makes Gold cheaper for foreign buyers. Traders brace for the Fedspeak later on Monday. The Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are scheduled to speak. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price loses momentum on US-China trade agreement, Israel-Iran ceasefire deal“The slowdown in geopolitics has offered an opportunity for investors to start taking profit because of the forward-looking prospects of some kind of kinetic war with China and the developments in the Middle East,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.Top US President Donald Trump advisers said on Friday that agreements with as many as a dozen of the US’s largest trading partners are expected to be completed by the July 9 deadline, per Bloomberg.US Personal Spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in May, the second decline this year, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday. Meanwhile, US Personal income dropped by 0.4% in May, the largest decrease since September 2021.The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.3% YoY in May, compared to 2.2% in April (revised from 2.1%), the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. This reading came in line with market expectations.The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.7% in May, following the 2.6% increase (revised from 2.5%) seen in April. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index and the core PCE Price Index increased 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Gold price retains a bullish tone in the longer termThe Gold price trades in negative territory on the day. Technically, the precious metal keeps the bullish vibe on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, in the near term, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located below the midline near 41.50, suggesting further downside looks favorable. The first upside barrier for yellow metal emerges near $3,350, the high of June 26. Sustained trading above this level could take XAU/USD back toward the $3,400 psychological level, en route to $3,425, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. In the bearish event, the initial support level for yellow metal is seen at $3,170, the 100-day EMA. A break below the mentioned level might even drag the gold price toward $3,120, the low of May 15.
05:26 Canada: To rescind digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with US
Canada's Finance Ministry said in a statement on Sunday that they will “rescind digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the United States (US).
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Canada's Finance Ministry said in a statement on Sunday that they will “rescind digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the United States (US).Canada's PM Mark Carney and President Donald Trump agreed that parties will resume negotiations to agree on a deal by July 21, the statement read.Market reactionThe Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives a fresh lift on the above headlines, as USD/CAD loses 0.11% on the day to trade near 1.3665, as of writing. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
05:10 US President Trump whines about ‘big, beautiful’ bill, higher rates, unfair Japanese auto trade
In a pre-taped interview with Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures”, US President Donald Trump expressed his concerns about his ‘big, beautiful’ spending bill and unfair Japanese auto trade.
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In a pre-taped interview with Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures”, US President Donald Trump expressed his concerns about his ‘big, beautiful’ spending bill and unfair Japanese auto trade.On passing the bill by his July 4 target date, he said: “I don’t know. I mean, I can’t tell you that.”“I’d like to say, yes. But the problem is if we’re two days late or five days late, everybody says, ‘Oh, you had a tremendous failure,’” he noted further.Speaking on the $9 trillion US debt that is set to mature this year, he said, “I don’t want to have to pay for 10 years debt at a higher rate."He said, “we’re to get somebody into the Fed who’s going to be able to lower the rate.”On Japanese trade, Trump said, “they won’t take our cars, and we take millions of theirs. It’s not fair,” adding that “Japan could import more US oil and other products.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under moderate selling pressure following these comments, down 0.21% so far at 97.20. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% -0.10% -0.14% -0.22% -0.03% -0.31% -0.01% EUR -0.07% -0.20% -0.20% -0.30% -0.12% -0.38% -0.09% GBP 0.10% 0.20% -0.22% -0.09% 0.08% -0.19% 0.11% JPY 0.14% 0.20% 0.22% -0.08% 0.16% -0.14% 0.17% CAD 0.22% 0.30% 0.09% 0.08% 0.14% -0.10% 0.20% AUD 0.03% 0.12% -0.08% -0.16% -0.14% -0.27% 0.03% NZD 0.31% 0.38% 0.19% 0.14% 0.10% 0.27% 0.30% CHF 0.01% 0.09% -0.11% -0.17% -0.20% -0.03% -0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
04:39 GBP/USD maintains position above 1.3700 ahead of UK Q1 GDP data
GBP/USD inches higher ahead of the United Kingdom’s (UK) Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter, trading around 1.3720 during the Asian hours on Monday.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
04:32 China's June NBS Manufacturing PMI advances to 49.7, Non-Manufacturing PMI rises to 50.5
China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) advanced to 49.7 in June, compared with 49.5 in May. The data came in line with the market consensus in the reported month.
China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) advanced to 49.7 in June, compared with 49.5 in May. The data came in line with the market consensus in the reported month. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in June versus May’s 50.3 and the expected 50.3 reading.
04:30 China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5, above expectations (50.3) in June
China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5, above expectations (50.3) in June
04:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) climbed from previous 6.7% to 6.9% in May
Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) climbed from previous 6.7% to 6.9% in May
04:30 China NBS Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (49.7) in June
China NBS Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (49.7) in June
04:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in May: Actual (0.5%)
Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in May: Actual (0.5%)
04:18 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) down to 2.4% in June from previous 2.6%
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) down to 2.4% in June from previous 2.6%
04:15 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) up to 0.1% in June from previous -0.4%
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) up to 0.1% in June from previous -0.4%
04:02 EUR/USD gathers strength above 1.1700 as traders brace for German Retail Sales, CPI releases
The EUR/USD pair extends the rally to around 1.1720 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). The Greenback weakens against the Euro (EUR) as traders are convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates at the September meeting.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
04:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence increased to 46.3 in June from previous 36.6
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence increased to 46.3 in June from previous 36.6
03:07 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends downside to near $3,250 on better risk appetite
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $3,265 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal tumbles to near one-month low after a United States (US)-China trade agreement boosted risk appetite. Investors await the Fedspeak later on Monday for fresh impetus.
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US-China trade agreement diminished investors’ appetite for Gold. Safe-haven flows and optimism of a Fed rate cut might cap the Gold’s downside. The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $3,265 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal tumbles to near one-month low after a United States (US)-China trade agreement boosted risk appetite. Investors await the Fedspeak later on Monday for fresh impetus. A trade deal reached between the US and China last week on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US was viewed positively by markets. This, in turn, diminished bullion's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the ceasefire deal between Iran and Israel last week contributes to the yellow metal’s downside. “The slowdown in geopolitics has offered an opportunity for investors to start taking profit because of the forward-looking prospects of some kind of kinetic war with China and the developments in the Middle East,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.On the other hand, any renewed geopolitical tensions or trade uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump could prompt central bank buying and increasing demand for the precious metal, a traditional, safe-haven asset. Increased optimism of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut might also lift the non-interest-bearing bullion. Traders raise bets that the US central bank will cut rates more times this year and possibly sooner than previously expected as US data released Friday showed an unexpected fall in consumer spending. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
02:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) down to -1.8% in May from previous 0.5%
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) down to -1.8% in May from previous 0.5%
02:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at 0.5%, below expectations (3.4%) in May
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at 0.5%, below expectations (3.4%) in May
02:11 AUD/USD gains ground above 0.6500 ahead of Chinese PMI data
The AUD/USD pair gains traction to near 0.6535 during the early Asian session on Monday. The renewed trade concerns due to the White House appear poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve, weighing on the Greenback.
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China’s NBS PMI data for June will be the highlight later on Monday. The AUD/USD pair gains traction to near 0.6535 during the early Asian session on Monday. The renewed trade concerns due to the White House appear poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve, weighing on the Greenback. Investors brace for the release of China’s NBS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which will be released later on Monday. Top US President Donald Trump advisers said on Friday that agreements with as many as a dozen of the US’s largest trading partners are expected to be completed by the July 9 deadline, per Bloomberg. However, the uncertainty remains, as it was still unclear whether the administration would hold firm on the deadline or extend it to allow more time for talks. This, in turn, drags the US Dollar (USD) lower and acts as a tailwind for the pair. Markets widely expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain on hold at its late July meeting. However, traders raise bet that the US central bank will cut rates more times this year and possibly sooner than previously expected, as some US economic data points to a weakening economy, which contributes to the USD's downside. China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish its monthly PMI reports later on Monday. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI is projected to remain unchanged at 50.3 in the same report period. Any surprise downside in the Chinese economic data could undermine China-proxy Aussie, as China is a major trading partner for Australia. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
02:00 South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) declined to 0.2% in May from previous 4.9%
South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) declined to 0.2% in May from previous 4.9%
02:00 South Korea Service Sector Output remains unchanged at -0.1% in May
South Korea Service Sector Output remains unchanged at -0.1% in May
02:00 South Korea Industrial Output Growth: -2.9% (May) vs previous -0.9%
South Korea Industrial Output Growth: -2.9% (May) vs previous -0.9%
01:39 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: US still has a strong Dollar policy
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said over the weekend that the US Dollar (USD) drop this year is normal variance, adding that the United States still has a strong Dollar policy.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said over the weekend that the US Dollar (USD) drop this year is normal variance, adding that the United States still has a strong Dollar policy.Key quotesThe US still has a strong dollar policy.
Currencies move up and down.
More fiscal spending in Europe tells you that the euro should appreciate.
I don't think anyone is necessarily talking about a shadow Fed.
One spot on the Fed will open up early in the year when Kugler leaves.
A group of trade deals (10-12) will be wrapped up by then.
Approximately 20 other nations will either see reciprocal rates kick in or will see a 10% baseline if they're negotiating in good faith.
It's all up to Trump.
My inclination is that USTR will start a 301 investigation into Canada's digital services tax.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.03% lower on the day to trade at 97.22. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Currencies move up and down.
More fiscal spending in Europe tells you that the euro should appreciate.
I don't think anyone is necessarily talking about a shadow Fed.
One spot on the Fed will open up early in the year when Kugler leaves.
A group of trade deals (10-12) will be wrapped up by then.
Approximately 20 other nations will either see reciprocal rates kick in or will see a 10% baseline if they're negotiating in good faith.
It's all up to Trump.
My inclination is that USTR will start a 301 investigation into Canada's digital services tax.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.03% lower on the day to trade at 97.22. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
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