ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

ศุกร์, พฤษภาคม 24, 2024

The USD/CAD pair remains unchanged above the crucial support of 1.3700 even though Canadian Retail Sales were weaker-than-expected in March and United States Durable Goods Orders for April beats estimates.

USD/CAD didn’t move as expected despite the release of the Canadian Retail Sales and the US Durable Goods Orders data.The Canadian Retail Sales contracted by 0.2% in March on a month-on-month basis.US Durable Goods Orders surprisingly rose by 0.8% in April. The USD/CAD pair remains unchanged above the crucial support of 1.3700 even though Canadian Retail Sales were weaker-than-expected in March and United States Durable Goods Orders for April beats estimates. Canadian Retail Sales were down by 0.2% while investors forecasted them to have remained stagnant. In February, Retail Sales also contracted by 0.1%. Sales data excluding automobiles surprisingly declined by 0.6% as economists expected them to rise by 0.1%. Retail Sales data indicate the current status of consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of economic growth. Significant decline in sales at retail stores indicates households are struggling to bear the consequences of higher interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BoE). This would strengthen the speculation that the BoC will start reducing interest rates from the June meeting. Meanwhile, the market sentiment is upbeat though Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers continue to maintain a hawkish guidance on interest rates. Considering positive overnight futures, the S&P 500 is expected to open on a positive note. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls to 104.77. The United States (US) Census Bureau has reported that Durable Goods Orders surprisingly rose by 0.7% while investors expected them to decline by 0.8%. The Durable Goods Orders data is a leading indicator of core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and higher demand for durable goods suggest a stubborn inflation outlook. USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3713 Today Daily Change -0.0017 Today Daily Change % -0.12 Today daily open 1.373   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3676 Daily SMA50 1.3647 Daily SMA100 1.3563 Daily SMA200 1.3572   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3744 Previous Daily Low 1.3657 Previous Weekly High 1.3691 Previous Weekly Low 1.359 Previous Monthly High 1.3846 Previous Monthly Low 1.3478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.371 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.369 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3676 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3623 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.359 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3763 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3797 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.385    

Durable Goods Orders in the US increased $1.9 billion, or 0.7%, to $284.1 billion in April, the US Census Bureau reported on Friday.

Durable Goods Orders in the US rose 0.7% in April.US Dollar Index stays in negative territory below 105.00.Durable Goods Orders in the US increased $1.9 billion, or 0.7%, to $284.1 billion in April, the US Census Bureau reported on Friday. This reading followed the 0.8% growth recorded in March (revised from +2.6%) and came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.8%. "Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%," the press release read. "Excluding defense, new orders were virtually unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion, or 1.2%, to $96.2 billion."Market reactionThese figures don't seem to be having a significant impact on the US Dollar's performance against its rivals. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.22% on the day at 104.80.

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.1%) in April

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (0%) in March: Actual (-0.2%)

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.6%)

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense declined to 0% in April from previous 2.3%

United States Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.7%, above expectations (-0.8%) in April

AUD/USD has broken out of the rising channel and fallen to a preliminary target for the breakout, based on the Fibonacci 0.618 ratio of the height of the channel extrapolated from the breakout point lower.

AUD/USD has broken out of a rising channel and reached an initial target. There is a possibility the short-term trend is now bearish and the pair may go lower. AUD/USD has broken out of the rising channel and fallen to a preliminary target for the breakout, based on the Fibonacci 0.618 ratio of the height of the channel extrapolated from the breakout point lower.  AUD/USD 4-hour Chart
  The breakdown from the channel brings the short-term uptrend into doubt. If price now breaks below the 0.6592 day’s low it would help confirm the bearish trend and probably result in a continuation to the next downside target in the 0.6550-8 zone, where the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is situated.  A recovery above the 0.6653 May 23 high, however, would suggest the uptrend was still intact and AUD/USD is likely to go higher.   

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $: $-2.578B (April) vs previous $-1.583B

Mexico Trade Balance, $ came in at $-3.746B, below expectations ($-0.8B) in April

The Mexican Peso (MXN) declines in most pairs on Friday as widespread risk aversion, on the back of geopolitical concerns, disproportionately weigh on the Peso, a risk-on currency.

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The news added to reports of a continued escalation in conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.  US data released on Thursday showed a surprise rise in US preliminary Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for May – especially in Services sector – and led to a substantial fall in the MXN against the USD.  The US data came after the release of hawkish Fed meeting Minutes from the April 30-May 1 meeting, in which policymakers repeated their mantra that more work needed to be done to bring down inflation and even discussed the possibility of hiking rates.   Bank of Mexico releases meeting Minutes Mexican data released on Thursday mostly came out in line with estimates, but the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a surprise upward revision to 0.3% on a quarter-on-quarter basis compared to the 0.2% previous estimate. This temporarily boosted the Mexican Peso in its pairs.  The release of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) May meeting Minutes showed most policymakers continued to see upside risks to inflation despite data showing core inflation continuing to decline. Persistent inflation in the Services sector was seen as a key stumbling block to inflation falling to Banxico’s 3.0% target.  The Minutes showed the decision to keep interest rates at 11.00% was unanimous.  In its concluding statements, Banxico’s Governing Board said: “challenges and risks prevail, which requires monetary policy to continue being managed prudently.” Adding, “With this decision, the monetary policy stance remains restrictive and will continue being conducive to the convergence of inflation to the 3% target in the forecast horizon.” Technical Analysis: USD/MXN breaks above trendline and continues rising USD/MXN – or the number of Pesos that can be bought with one US Dollar – rises after breaking above the trendline for the April-May decline. This could possible indicate the pair is now in a short-term uptrend, favoring long positions over shorts.  USD/MXN 4-hour Chart A break above Thursday’s high at 16.76 would confirm a continuation of the young uptrend to a possible target at the previous range lows around 16.85.  Given the medium and long-term trends are bearish, however, there remains a high risk of the short-term trend reversing and the pair continuing lower.  A decisive break below the grey trendline for the up move at roughly 16.68 would bring the short-term uptrend into doubt and possibly signal the resumption of more downside.  Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product released by INEGI is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Mexico. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Peso, while a negative trend is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Thu May 23, 2024 12:00 Frequency: QuarterlyActual: 0.3%Consensus: 0.2%Previous: 0.2%Source:  

The US Dollar (USD) trades broadly stable on Friday and looks set to end the week in the green as the US Dollar Index (DXY) fights to log in a five-day winning streak. The USD seems to have fallen back into the graces of the markets as the rate

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The USD seems to have fallen back into the graces of the markets as the rate differential is supporting a stronger Greenback against many of its peers. Both the Federal Reserve Minutes and Fed members throughout the week have been vocal on their concerns about inflation and that the initial rate cut will be happening only when all conditions are met.  The broad US Dollar strength was supported on Thursday by stronger-than-expected Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for May. The data suggested that US business activity expanded at the fastest pace in just over two years, led by an upturn in the services sector. On the economic data front, there are two main components that could snap the four-day winning streak for the DXY. First up, the preliminary Durable Goods Orders data for April. Secondly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation expectation release for May will deliver the last data point for this week. Daily digest market movers: Durable Goods already priced inDurable Goods Orders for April will be released at 12:30 GMT: Orders are set to decline by 0.8% after increasing 2.6% in March. Orders without cars and transportation should increase by a marginal 0.1%, down from the 0.2% advance seen a month earlier. With a softer print already in the consensus backed in, any uptick above the consensus could see some more US Dollar strength.  Around 13:35 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a keynote address at the Reykjavik Economic Conference in Iceland. To round off this Friday, at 14:00 GMT, the University of Michigan will release its recent findings for May: Consumer Sentiment is expected to come in at 67.5,  broadly unchanged from its preliminary reading of 67.4. The 5-year inflation expectations index is also expected to remain unchanged from the mid-month estimate of 3.1%. Equities are in the red this Friday from the Asia-Pacific session to Europe. US futures are flat for the day and looking for direction.  The CME Fedwatch Tool is pricing 98.7% for no change in the policy rate for June. September futures are seeing more action where it is a neck-a-neck race with 53.2% chances for a cut against 46.2% for unchanged. A marginal 0.6% price in a rate hike. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.47%, near the high for this week.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Do not think it will be that easy!The US Dollar Index (DXY) is surging again, nearly erasing all the losses from last week on the back of the disinflationary report. Still, the US Dollar Index is not out of the woods yet. It is still a long way to go to head to 106.00, and several economic data points are starting to retreat from their peak performances.  Traders will need to ask themselves when the US is no longer exceptional in its economic performance against other countries. Is the Greenback then really earning to be back at 106.00 or higher, with the rate differential against its peer as a single main driver? Food for thought for traders over the weekend.  On the upside, the DXY Index has broken two technical elements which were keeping price action in check. The first level was the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.83 and the second was the red descending trend line crossed at 104.79 on Wednesday. From now further up, the following levels to consider are 105.12 and 105.52.  On the downside, the 100-day SMA around 104.28 is the last man supporting the decline. Once that level snaps, an air pocket is placed between 104.11 and 103.00. Should the US Dollar decline persist, the low of March at 102.35 and the low from December at 100.62 are levels to consider.   US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

The GBP/JPY pair moves higher to 199.50 in Friday’s European session.

GBP/JPY advances to 199.50 as soft Japan’s CPI report raised doubts over BoJ extending the rate-tightening cycle.Japan’s inflation declines due to weak private spending.UK’s weak Retail Sales suggest that inflation will soften further.The GBP/JPY pair moves higher to 199.50 in Friday’s European session. The cross rebounds after a short-lived corrective move to near 199.00 as Japan’s inflation declined again on April, deepening fears that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will take more time in raising interest rates further. Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that annual National CPI excluding fresh food declined to 2.2% as expected from the prior reading of 2.6%. The core core index, which is BoJ’s preferred inflation gauge that strips off volatile fresh food and energy items decelerated to 2.4% from the prior reading of 2.9%. The CPI report also showed that weak private consumption led to softening of inflationary pressures. Though inflation remains above BoJ’s desired target of 2%, investors are uncertain about steadiness in price pressures, which could limit the scope of BoJ’s rate-tightening plans. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling remains firm despite weak United Kingdom Retail Sales data for April. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that monthly Retal Sales declined at a faster pace of 2.3%. Investors forecasted the economic data to have declined by 0.4% from the prior reading of 0.2%, revised to negative from a stagnant performance. Annual Retail Sales contracted by 2.7% after expanding at a pace of 0.4% in March, downwardly revised from 0.8%. Economists expected a decline of 0.2%. The Retail Sales report showed that sales at retail stores contracted due to the rainy season. Weak UK Retail Sales data indicate that households are struggling to bear the consequences of higher interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE). This would force the BoE to start reducing interest rates earlier than what was previously anticipated. GBP/JPY Overview Today last price 199.6 Today Daily Change 0.34 Today Daily Change % 0.17 Today daily open 199.26   Trends Daily SMA20 196.03 Daily SMA50 193.45 Daily SMA100 190.81 Daily SMA200 187.14   Levels Previous Daily High 199.9 Previous Daily Low 199.02 Previous Weekly High 197.86 Previous Weekly Low 194.74 Previous Monthly High 200.59 Previous Monthly Low 190 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 199.36 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 199.56 Daily Pivot Point S1 198.89 Daily Pivot Point S2 198.51 Daily Pivot Point S3 198.01 Daily Pivot Point R1 199.77 Daily Pivot Point R2 200.27 Daily Pivot Point R3 200.64    

Oil prices extend their decline on Friday and fall to a three-month low to levels not seen since February 26 near $76.00, erasing the previous week's gains and losing more than 4% this week.

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There were plenty of headlines for Crude prices to jump up on, such as Russia planning to move its borders in the Baltic Sea and fresh missile attacks from Russia into Ukraine, which could affect the supply of crude in the markets. Unfortunately, those headlines were no match for the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is currently killing off any hopes or prospects of early interest rate cuts, that in turn would boost demand for Crude Oil.  Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, has jumped back above 105.00 after the US preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers for May revealed that all sectors keep expanding, with Services leading the charge. In the PMI report, the prices component showed an uptick as well, which could filter through into an already hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) release again, and would see the DXY benefit from inflow into the Greenback again.  At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $76.20 and Brent Crude at $80.55.Oil news and market movers: OPEC June meeting not in personOPEC+ (OPEC members plus other oil-producing countries)  has just confirmed to Bloomberg that it will not hold its June 2 meeting in Vienna. Countries will participate in a video conference, which could point to no big decisions or changes to be announced, making it a non-event already in advance.  In addition to discussing rolling over current production cuts, the production capacity per member will be reviewed ahead of the individual targets for 2025.  Mexico produced nearly 6.4% less Oil in April than a year before, according to Bloomberg News. The decline means nearly 1.56 million barrels per day less.  Markets have completely discarded the possibility that the Fed will not cut interest rates before the summer, and chances for a cut thereafter are even diminishing. This kills off the assumption that a boost given by rate cuts to the US economy will not take place, and translates into more sluggish Oil demand for the rest of the year. Oil Technical Analysis: Stand still despite all moving partsOil prices are flirting with a three-month low to levels not seen since the end of February. The pivotal line in the sand is $75.27, where Oil prices are currently trading. With the outlook for more sluggish demand in the US and possibly in the rest of the world, the risk could be that more discounts need to be priced in, in order to keep demand balanced. Although a full unwind back to $68 does not look to be in the cards for now, a snoozing OPEC decision, which is not taking up more actions to underpin Oil prices, might see a $72.00 or $70.00 price tested over the summer.    On the upside, a trifecta of Simple Moving Averages (SMA) is forming, with two of them falling in line with pivotal levels to have in mind. First up is the 100-day SMA at $78.72, which falls in line with the ascending green trend line as the first hurdle. Next, just ahead of $80.00 is the 200-day SMA at $79.57, near the pivotal blue line at $79.94. The last one is the 55-day SMA at $81.18, the target level once $80.00 got firmly broken.  On the downside, the pivotal level at $75.27 is the last solid line that could support the decline. If this level is unable to hold, investors could expect an accelerated sell-off towards $72.00 and $70.00, erasing all gains for 2024. Further down, Oil price could test $68, the December 13 low. US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.  

China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY): -27.9% (April) vs previous -26.1%

EUR/USD seems well-supported near the round-level support of 1.0800 in Friday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD finds cushion near 1.0800 amid improvement in the Eurozone’s economic outlook.The ECB is set to start reducing interest rates from the June meeting.The US Dollar drops even though traders pare back Fed rate-cut bets.EUR/USD seems well-supported near the round-level support of 1.0800 in Friday’s European session. The strength in the major currency pair is majorly driven by strong Eurozone preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May. The strong Composite PMI has improved the Eurozone’s economic outlook, but the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) lowering interest rates in the short term remains firm. S&P Global reported on Thursday that the Composite PMI jumped to 52.3, beating the consensus of 52.0 and the former release of 51.7. The PMI data rose for the third consecutive month even though the ECB is maintaining a restrictive policy framework. Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) – which also publishes the PMI data in collaboration with S&P Global – said: “This time, there is also some good news for the ECB as the rates of inflation for input and output prices in the services sector have softened compared to the month before. This will be supportive of the apparent stance of the ECB to cut rates at the meeting on June 6. However, the better inflation outlook will most probably not be enough for the central bank to announce that further rate cuts will follow suit.” Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD rebounds as US Dollar recovery stalls EUR/USD holds the crucial support of 1.0800 as the US Dollar declines despite upbeat data from the United States and deepening uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates. The early PMI print by S&P Global for May showed that the Composite PMI also beat expectations in the US, exceeding the prior reading due to robust growth in both manufacturing and service activities. The US preliminary PMI numbers suggested that business activity rose at the fastest pace in just over two years after two months of slower growth, indicating that the economy is on track to post solid Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gain in the second quarter. Strong US PMI data has weakened market speculation that the Fed will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability for rate cuts from their current levels in September has been reduced to 53% from 64% recorded a week ago. Meanwhile, hawkish guidance on interest rates by Fed policymakers has also weighed on rate-cut bets for September. On Thursday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said the central bank may need to wait for the rate-cut consideration amid upside risks to inflation despite a slowdown in price pressures in April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, Reuters reported. In a virtual class session with Stanford University business school students, Bostic said prices of a few goods are increasing at a faster pace than what is required to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Bostic added that a strong job market gives him comfort in maintaining a restrictive stance on interest rates. In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US Durable Goods Orders data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Fresh orders for Durable Goods are estimated to have declined by 0.8% after expanding 2.6% in March. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds 1.0800EUR/USD finds buying interest near the breakout region of the Symmetrical Triangle formed on the daily time frame around 1.0800. The near-term outlook of the shared currency pair remains firm as the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have delivered a bullish crossover around 1.0780. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into the 40.00-60.00, suggesting that the momentum, which was leaned toward the upside has faded for now. The major currency pair is expected to recapture a two-month high around 1.0900. A decisive break above this level would drive the asset towards March 21 high around 1.0950 and the psychological resistance of 1.1000. However, a downside move below the 200-day EMA at 1.0800 could push it further down. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Reuters reported comments delivered by European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Isabel Schnabel during an interview conducted on May 16.

Reuters reported comments delivered by European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Isabel Schnabel during an interview conducted on May 16. Key quotes A June rate cut is likely. The decision won't be made until the day the Governing Council meets. If data gives us confidence that price target can be met sustainably, a June rate cut will be likely. Some elements of inflation are proving persistent, services in particular. Would caution against moving too quickly on rate cuts.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

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Silver trades at $30.58 per troy ounce, up 1.50% from the $30.13 it cost on Thursday. Silver prices have increased by 20.06% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Today Price Silver price per troy ounce $30.58 Silver price per gram $0.98   The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of troy ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one troy ounce of Gold, stood at 76.59 on Friday, down from 77.30 on Thursday. Investors might use this ratio to determine the relative valuation of Gold and Silver. Some may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued – or Gold is overvalued – and might buy Silver or sell Gold accordingly. Conversely, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

USD/CHF retraces its recent losses that were registered in the previous session, trading around 0.9150 during the European hours on Friday.

USD/CHF gained ground as investors turned toward US Dollar after robust US PMI data.Fed’s Raphael Bostic stated that the inflation outlook might not improve as quickly as market expectations.Swiss Employment Level (QoQ) came in at 5.484 million in Q1 compared to the previous reading of 5.488 million.USD/CHF retraces its recent losses that were registered in the previous session, trading around 0.9150 during the European hours on Friday. Traders shifted their focus to the US Dollar (USD) following higher-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US), which dampened risk appetite. The robust data further strengthened the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed), suggesting the maintenance of higher policy rates for an extended period. The S&P Global US Composite PMI increased to 54.4 in May, up from 51.3 in April, reaching its highest level since April 2022 and surpassing market expectations of 51.1. The Service PMI surged to 54.8, indicating the most significant output growth in a year, while the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated on Thursday that the inflation outlook might not improve as quickly as market participants are hoping for. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has decreased to 46.6% from 49.4% a day earlier. In Switzerland, the Employment Level (QoQ) released by the Swiss Statistics indicated that the total number of employed workers stood at 5.484 million in the first quarter, slightly below the previous reading of 5.488 million. The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond hovers around 0.76%, suggesting that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to maintain current interest rates. This could potentially strengthen the CHF and weaken the USD/CHF pair. Investors have been closely watching for clues on when the Fed will begin cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates for the first time in nine years in March, reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%. This move made it the first major central bank to ease its monetary policy. USD/CHF Overview Today last price 0.9149 Today Daily Change 0.0005 Today Daily Change % 0.05 Today daily open 0.9144   Trends Daily SMA20 0.9098 Daily SMA50 0.9064 Daily SMA100 0.889 Daily SMA200 0.8881   Levels Previous Daily High 0.9157 Previous Daily Low 0.9126 Previous Weekly High 0.9103 Previous Weekly Low 0.8988 Previous Monthly High 0.9195 Previous Monthly Low 0.8998 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.9138 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.9145 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.9128 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.9111 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.9097 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.9159 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.9173 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.919    

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data from India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

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As for futures contracts, Gold prices decreased to INR 71,531 per 10 gms from INR 71,577 per 10 gms. Prices for Silver futures contracts decreased to INR 91,030 per kg from INR 900,437 per kg. Global Market Movers: Comex Gold price retreats from record highs amid the Fed’s hawkish remarks The US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 8K to 215K for the week ending May 18. This figure came in lower than the expectation of 220K and the previous week's reading of 223K. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 50.0 in April. The Services PMI climbed to 54.8 in May from the previous reading of 51.3. Both figures came in better than the estimation.  The US S&P Global Composite PMI jumped to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, beating the market expectation of 51.1, the highest level since April 2022. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he still sees upward inflation pressure, adding the Fed may need to be more patient to avoid heating the economy. China’s private sector imported 543 tonnes of gold in Q1 2024, and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 189 tonnes to its reserves during the same period, according to the latest analysis by Gainesville Coins’ Jan Nieuwenhuijs. Gold imports to India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, might decline by about a fifth in 2024 as high prices encourage retail customers to exchange old jewelry for new products, per Reuters. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

USD/CAD halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 1.3720 during the European session on Friday.

USD/CAD halts its winning streak ahead of Canadian Retail Sales and US Consumer Sentiment due on Friday.The US Dollar edges lower due to a downward correction in US Treasury yields.Lower WTI price puts pressure on the commodity-link Canadian Dollar.USD/CAD halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 1.3720 during the European session on Friday. However, the US Dollar (USD) advanced against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) during the earlier hours of the Asian market due to the emergence of the risk aversion sentiment. This could be attributed to the higher-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on Thursday from the United States (US). The data reinforced the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) of maintaining higher policy rates for an extended period. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 54.4 in May from April's 51.3, marking the highest level since April 2022. The index exceeded market expectations of 51.1. The Service PMI surged to 54.8, indicating the biggest output growth in a year, while the Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9. Additionally, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes suggested that Fed policymakers expressed concerns about the lack of progress on inflation, which was more persistent than expected at the start of 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated on Thursday that the inflation outlook might not improve as quickly as market participants are hoping for. On the CAD front, declining crude Oil prices are exerting selling pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices have been falling for the fifth consecutive session, trading around $77.80 per barrel at the time of writing. Higher-than-expected US PMI data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a delay in the Fed’s rate cuts. Higher interest rates can negatively impact economic activities in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, potentially reducing Oil demand. Additionally, the expectation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) might cut interest rates before the US Federal Reserve could weigh on the Canadian Dollar, supporting the USD/CAD pair. Investors expect Retail Sales data from Canada on Friday. On the US front, US Durable Goods Orders and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will offer insight into economic conditions in the United States. USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3723 Today Daily Change -0.0007 Today Daily Change % -0.05 Today daily open 1.373   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3676 Daily SMA50 1.3647 Daily SMA100 1.3563 Daily SMA200 1.3572   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3744 Previous Daily Low 1.3657 Previous Weekly High 1.3691 Previous Weekly Low 1.359 Previous Monthly High 1.3846 Previous Monthly Low 1.3478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.371 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.369 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3676 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3623 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.359 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3763 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3797 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.385    

Gold (XAU/USD) puts in a temporary floor under the recent sell-off on Friday, trading a quarter of a percent higher at around the $2,330s, as a combination of market and geopolitical concerns lead investors to seek solace in its safe-haven qualities.

Gold has cushioned its decline as investors seek it out for its safe-haven qualities on Friday. Mounting geopolitical risks from multiple hotspots – China, Gaza and Ukraine – are sending investors fleeing for safety. Stronger-than-expected US data on Thursday sent Gold into a downward spiral as higher interest rates become normalized. Gold (XAU/USD) puts in a temporary floor under the recent sell-off on Friday, trading a quarter of a percent higher at around the $2,330s, as a combination of market and geopolitical concerns lead investors to seek solace in its safe-haven qualities.  Gold retrenches on geopolitical concerns The news that China has started a second day of war games around Taiwan, as well as the decision by Ireland, Norway and Spain to recognise the independent state of Palestine, have ratcheted up geopolitical tensions and impacted markets, helping drive demand for Gold.  Asian stocks are broadly lower on Friday, with the Hang Seng down 1.71%, the Shanghai Composite down 0.90%, and the Nikkie closing 1.36% lower. Investor concerns about high interest rates were a further factor weighing on sentiment.   Gold price weakened after US data  A slew of unexpectedly strong US economic data took its toll on the price of Gold on Thursday.  The higher-than-expected US Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) preliminary data for May, especially in the Services sector – which has been singled out as a major contributor to high inflation – has dialed back bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement early interest-rate cuts. This is negative for non-yielding Gold as it increases the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.  India imports fall The relatively high price of Gold may also be acting as a counterweight to demand in India, according to Reuters, who notes a fall in imports to the country as “high prices encourage retail customers to exchange old jewelry for new products”, reports FXStreet Editor Lallalit Srijandorn.   Technical Analysis: Gold breaks below major trendlineGold price (XAU/USD) has decisively broken below a major trendline for the uptrend since February, ushering in a new more bearish technical atmosphere.  The steep decline from the all-time highs registered on Monday now suggests Gold is probably in a short-term downtrend, favoring short positions over longs.  XAU/USD 4-hour ChartThe penetration of the major trendline signals Gold will probably now fall to a conservative target at $2,303 (Fibonacci 0.618 extrapolation of the prior down move from $2,435 to $2,355) or all the way down to $2,272 (100% of the prior down move). The latter level is also the support from the May 3 lower high. A break below the $2,325 lows would provide confirmation of more downside to these targets.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) became oversold and then reentered neutral territory on the previous bar, suggesting an increased chance of a pull back. It is also possible Gold could correct higher and return to the trendline in a throwback move before rolling over and going lower.  The precious metal’s medium and long-term trends are still bullish, suggesting the risk of a recovery remains high, yet price action does not suggest this is currently the case. A decisive break back above the trendline at $2,360 would provide evidence of a recovery and reversal of the short-term downtrend.  A decisive break would be one accompanied by a long green bullish candle or three green candles in a row.   

Silver price (XAG/USD) finds temporary support near the psychological support of $30.00 in Friday’s European session after witnessing a sharp sell-off in the past two trading session.

Silver price steadies above $30.00 but is prone to more downside amid multiple headwinds.The US Dollar strengthens as Fed supports maintaining interest rates at their current levels for longer.Strong US economic outlook has negatively impacted Fed rate-cut prospects for September.Silver price (XAG/USD) finds temporary support near the psychological support of $30.00 in Friday’s European session after witnessing a sharp sell-off in the past two trading session. The outlook for the Silver price is still uncertain as investors are losing confidence over the Federal Reserve (Fed) returning to policy normalization in the September meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability for rate cuts in September has reduced to 53% from 64% recorded a week ago. Diminished Fed rate-cut bets are the outcome of hawkish Fed’s commentary on interest rates and upbeat United States (US) economic outlook. Fed officials have been communicating the need to maintain interest rates at their current levels for a longer period until they get evidence that inflation will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2%. The US economic outlook has improved as early S&P Global PMI report for May has shown that both Manufacturing and Services PMI surprisingly beat their prior readings. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence commented on data, “The US economic upturn has accelerated again after two months of slower growth, with the early PMI data signalling the fastest expansion for just over two years in May. The data put the US economy back on course for another solid GDP gain in the second quarter.”The US Dollar Index (DXY) exhibits strength near 105.00 due to Fed’s hawkish stance on the interest rate outlook and firm US economic prospects. Going forward, investors will focus on the US Durable Goods Orders data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Fresh orders for Durable Goods are estimated to have declined by 0.8% after expanding 2.6% in March. XAG/USD Overview Today last price 30.45 Today Daily Change 0.32 Today Daily Change % 1.06 Today daily open 30.13   Trends Daily SMA20 28.57 Daily SMA50 27.39 Daily SMA100 25.2 Daily SMA200 24.25   Levels Previous Daily High 30.98 Previous Daily Low 30.07 Previous Weekly High 31.6 Previous Weekly Low 27.97 Previous Monthly High 29.8 Previous Monthly Low 24.75 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 30.42 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 30.63 Daily Pivot Point S1 29.8 Daily Pivot Point S2 29.48 Daily Pivot Point S3 28.89 Daily Pivot Point R1 30.72 Daily Pivot Point R2 31.31 Daily Pivot Point R3 31.63    

EUR/GBP extends its gains, trading around 0.8520 during the early European session on Friday.

EUR/GBP gains ground as Office for National Statistics released lower-than-expected UK Retail Sales data on Friday.UK Retail Sales (MoM) declined by 2.3% in April, marking the largest decrease in four months.The Euro continues to advance since the improved Eurozone Manufacturing PMI released on Thursday.EUR/GBP extends its gains, trading around 0.8520 during the early European session on Friday. The decline in the Pound Sterling (GBP) supports the EUR/GBP cross, which could be attributed to lower-than-expected Retail Sales data from the United Kingdom (UK). UK Retail Sales (MoM) declined by 2.3% in April, following a downwardly revised 0.2% fall in March and a worse-than-expected decline of 0.4%. This marks the largest decrease in retail sales in four months. Annually, Retail Sales decreased by 2.7%, swinging from the previous increase of 0.4%. Core Retail Sales, which exclude auto motor fuel sales, fell by 2.0% MoM, compared to a 0.6% decline in March. On an annual basis, Core Retail Sales decreased by 3.0%, compared to no change in the previous month. Moreover, the GfK Consumer Confidence came in at the reading of -17 in May, as compared to the previous reading of -19 in April, posting the highest reading since December 2021 and coming in better than forecasts of -18. The data shows that the cost of living crisis and high borrowing costs continued to weigh on consumer sentiment. On Friday, Reuters reported Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, saying “All in all, consumers are clearly sensing that conditions are improving. This good result anticipates further growth in confidence in the months to come.” On Thursday, the Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 47.4 in May from April's 45.7, surpassing the expected reading of 46.2 and reaching a 15-month high. This improvement in the manufacturing sector's downturn supported the Euro. According to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control and suggested that an interest rate cut is likely next month. LSEG data indicates that financial markets have priced in a 25 basis-point cut in June. EUR/GBP Overview Today last price 0.8518 Today Daily Change 0.0001 Today Daily Change % 0.01 Today daily open 0.8517   Trends Daily SMA20 0.8565 Daily SMA50 0.8566 Daily SMA100 0.8561 Daily SMA200 0.8603   Levels Previous Daily High 0.8527 Previous Daily Low 0.85 Previous Weekly High 0.8614 Previous Weekly Low 0.8555 Previous Monthly High 0.8645 Previous Monthly Low 0.8521 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.8517 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.851 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8502 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8487 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8475 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.853 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.8542 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.8557    

The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its downside to 1.2670 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s London session after failing to keep above the round figure of 1.2700.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling falls sharply to 1.2670 as UK Retail Sales contracted at a faster pace than expected.Weak UK Retail Sales data for April suggests a soft inflation outlook.The US Dollar strengthens after upbeat US preliminary PMI report for May.The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its downside to 1.2670 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s London session after failing to keep above the round figure of 1.2700. The GBP/USD pair has come under pressure as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported a sharp decline in the Retail Sales data for April and the US Dollar extended recovery. The ONS has shown that monthly Retail Sales declined at a faster pace of 2.3%. Investors forecasted the economic data to have declined by 0.4% from the prior reading of -0.2%, revised negative from a stagnant performance. Annual Retail Sales contracted by 2.7% after expanding at a pace of 0.4% in March, downwardly revised from 0.8%. Economists expected a decline by 0.2%. Retail Sales data indicate the current status of consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of economic growth. A significant decline in sales at retail stores indicates that the consequences of the Bank of England's (BoE) higher interest rates have deeply impacted consumer spending. Retail Sales data is a leading indicator of the inflation outlook, and weak numbers suggest that price pressures will ease further. This could force the BoE to shift to policy normalization earlier than previously expected. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling drops while US Dollar extends upside The Pound Sterling faces an intense sell-off due to weak economic data such as Retail Sales and the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May, released on Thursday. The agency reported that the Composite PMI dropped at a faster pace to a two-month low at 52.8 from the estimates of 54.0 and the prior reading of 54.1. The sharp decline in the Composite PMI was driven by weak Services PMI, which fell to a six-month low at 52.9 from the consensus of 54.7 and the former reading of 55.0. The Manufacturing PMI rose above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction and grew strongly to 51.3. Economists forecasted that the factory PMI would have increased to 49.5 from 49.1 in April. Weak economic indicators have painted a gloomy picture of the UK economic outlook, which could revamp speculation that the BoE will begin reducing interest rates from the June meeting. Expectations for the BoE to begin lowering interest rates in June were strong earlier this week, but a slower-than-expected decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April forced traders to pare rate-cut bets. Meanwhile, firm US Dollar has also weighed on the GBP/USD pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to the crucial resistance of 105.00 as uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates has deepened. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see a 53% probability that interest rates will be lower than the current level at the September meeting. The probability has reduced from 64% recorded a week ago due to Fed policymakers maintaining hawkish guidance on the interest rate outlook and surprisingly strong preliminary United States PMI data for May. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling holds the 61.8% Fibo retracement support The Pound Sterling has extended its correction slightly below 1.2700 against the US Dollar from a two-month high near 1.2750 recorded on Wednesday. The near-term outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains firm as it is well-established above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (plotted from the March 8 high of 1.2900 to the April 22 low at 1.2300) at 1.2667. The Cable is expected to remain in the bullish trajectory as all short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher, suggesting a strong uptrend. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting that the momentum has leaned toward the upside. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 23: The US Dollar (USD) capitalized on the upbeat PMI data from the US on Thursday, and the USD Index closed the fourth consecutive day in positive territory.

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Durable Goods Orders data for April and the revision to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey for May will be featured in the US economic docket ahead of the weekend. S&P Global Composite PMI climbed to 54.4 in May's flash estimate from 51.3 in April, showing that the business activity continued to expand at an accelerating pace. Manufacturing and Services PMIs improved to 50.9 and 54.8, respectively. Following a downward correction seen in the European trading hours, the USD Index regained its traction and climbed above 105.00 for the first time in 10 days. Early Friday, the index holds steady near Thursday's closing level, while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuates below 4.5% after gaining more than 1% on Thursday.  US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.49% 0.06% 0.89% 0.86% 1.42% 0.65% 0.62% EUR -0.49%   -0.46% 0.46% 0.37% 0.93% 0.14% 0.14% GBP -0.06% 0.46%   0.76% 0.88% 1.41% 0.60% 0.58% JPY -0.89% -0.46% -0.76%   -0.06% 0.52% -0.24% -0.27% CAD -0.86% -0.37% -0.88% 0.06%   0.50% -0.22% -0.24% AUD -1.42% -0.93% -1.41% -0.52% -0.50%   -0.80% -0.79% NZD -0.65% -0.14% -0.60% 0.24% 0.22% 0.80%   -0.03% CHF -0.62% -0.14% -0.58% 0.27% 0.24% 0.79% 0.03%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). During the Asian trading hours, the data from Japan showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% on a yearly basis in April, following the 2.7% growth recorded in March. In the same period, National CPI ex Fresh Food rose 2.2%, matching the market expectation. USD/JPY showed no reaction to this data and extended its sideways grind at around 157.00. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Hawkesby said on Friday that lowering interest rates was not a part of near-term discussions and noted that there was a lot of uncertainty about tradable inflation going forward. After rising to its highest level in over two months above 0.6150 on the RBNZ's hawkish hold earlier in the week, NZD/USD lost its traction and retreated to the 0.6100 area. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales declined 2.3% on a monthly basis in April. This reading followed the 0.2% contraction recorded in March and came in much worse than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.4%. GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure after the disappointing data and trades below 1.2700.EUR/USD registered small losses on Thursday but managed to hold above 1.0800. The pair fluctuates in a tight range at around 1.0820 in the European morning on Friday. Germany's Destatis confirmed earlier in the day that the real Gross Domestic Product expanded 0.2% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter. After suffering heavy losses on Wednesday, Gold extended its slide on Thursday and fell more than 2% on the day. XAU/USD stages a technical correction early Friday and trades below $2,340. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 99, below expectations (100) in May

FX option expiries for May 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0690 2.5b 1.0700 1.6b 1.0705 1.1b 1.0710 1.2b 1.0830 911m 1.0850 977m 1.0885 963m 1.0875 3b 1.0890 2.3b 1.0900 1.4b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2700 407m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 154.50 1.1b 155.00 1.5b 155.50 1.4b 156.00 1.4b 157.00 3.4b - USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.9115 576m 0.9200 1.3b - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6605 545m 0.6675 907m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3705 546m .

FX option expiries for May 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0690 2.5b 1.0700 1.6b 1.0705 1.1b 1.0710 1.2b 1.0830 911m 1.0850 977m 1.0885 963m 1.0875 3b 1.0890 2.3b 1.0900 1.4b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2700 407m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      154.50 1.1b 155.00 1.5b 155.50 1.4b 156.00 1.4b 157.00 3.4b - USD/CHF: USD amounts      0.9115 576m 0.9200 1.3b - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6605 545m 0.6675 907m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3705 546m

Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ) dipped from previous 5.488M to 5.484M in 1Q

United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -2.3%, below expectations (-0.4%) in April

Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous -0.6% to 0.9% in April

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) below forecasts (-1.1%) in April: Actual (-3%)

Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in 1Q

The UK Retail Sales dropped 2.3% over the month in April vs.

The UK Retail Sales came in at -2.3% MoM in April, a big miss.Core Retail Sales for the UK dropped 2.0% MoM in April.GBP/USD extends losses below 1.2700 after dismal UK data.The UK Retail Sales dropped 2.3% over the month in April vs. -0.4% expected and -0.2% in March, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. developing story ....

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) registered at -2%, below expectations (-0.6%) in April

United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at -2.7% below forecasts (-0.2%) in April

Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) remains at -0.9% in 1Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q

Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.5% in April from previous 0.6%

The EUR/USD pair extends the decline around 1.0808 during the early European session on Friday.

EUR/USD loses traction near 1.0808 in Friday’s early Asian session. The upbeat US PMI data and the Fed’s hawkish comments support the Greenback. Traders raise their bets on the ECB rate cuts in June, weighing on the Euro. The EUR/USD pair extends the decline around 1.0808 during the early European session on Friday. The recovery of the US Dollar (USD) broadly, backed by the stronger US PMI data drags the major pair lower. The German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) is due on Friday. The quarterly GDP is projected to grow 0.2% QoQ, while the annual GDP is estimated to contract 0.2% YoY in Q1. 

The Greenback edges higher on the upbeat US economic data released on Thursday. The US S&P Global flash May Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) climbed to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, the highest since April 2022. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 50.0 in April. The Services PMI climbed to 54.8 in May from the previous reading of 51.3. Both figures came in above the market consensus. Additionally, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 18 dropped to 215K from 223K in the previous week, lower than the estimation of 220K.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that the US central bank may need to wait longer to cut interest rates as he still sees upward inflation pressure. His hawkish remarks boost the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). 

Across the pond, the growing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting the interest rate before the Fed exerts some selling pressure on the EUR. The ECB President Christine Lagarde said that she is "really confident" that Eurozone inflation was under control and an interest-rate cut is probable next month. According to LSEG data, financial markets currently priced in a 25 basis point (bps) cut in June. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0809 Today Daily Change -0.0006 Today Daily Change % -0.06 Today daily open 1.0815   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0784 Daily SMA50 1.0777 Daily SMA100 1.0815 Daily SMA200 1.0788   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0861 Previous Daily Low 1.0805 Previous Weekly High 1.0895 Previous Weekly Low 1.0766 Previous Monthly High 1.0885 Previous Monthly Low 1.0601 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0826 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0839 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0793 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0771 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0737 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0849 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0883 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0905    

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, look set to close the week on a bearish note.

The Oil price sets to conclude the week on a bearish note.Fed officials believe that the decline in US inflation observed in April won’t be long-lasting.OPEC members are scheduled to meet on June 1 to discuss supply policy.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, look set to close the week on a bearish note. The Oil price has extended its losing spree for the fifth trading session on Friday. The black gold has remained under pressure for the entire week as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers maintain a hawkish guidance on interest rates despite an expected decline in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April. Fed officials are uncertain about a resumption in progress in the disinflation process, given the strength in the labor market. Policymakers are clear that rate cuts will be considered only if they get greater confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the May meeting indicated that a few policymakers have supported for tightening the monetary policy further to be sure that price stability will be achieved. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the majority of other policymakers said that more rate hikes are unlikely. The Fed's hawkish outlook on interest rates is unfavorable for the Oil price. Higher interest rates reduce the flow of liquidity into the economy, which negatively influences consumer spending and factor activities and eventually impacts overall oil demand. The next trigger for the Oil price will be the OPEC meeting scheduled for June 1, during which members will discuss the supply policy. In the last meeting on April 13, oil-rich nations made no change in the current voluntary oil output cut, which is 2.2 million barrels per day. WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 76.74 Today Daily Change -0.12 Today Daily Change % -0.16 Today daily open 76.86   Trends Daily SMA20 79 Daily SMA50 81.52 Daily SMA100 78.68 Daily SMA200 79.59   Levels Previous Daily High 78.55 Previous Daily Low 76.34 Previous Weekly High 79.63 Previous Weekly Low 76.38 Previous Monthly High 87.12 Previous Monthly Low 80.62 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 77.18 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 77.7 Daily Pivot Point S1 75.95 Daily Pivot Point S2 75.04 Daily Pivot Point S3 73.73 Daily Pivot Point R1 78.16 Daily Pivot Point R2 79.46 Daily Pivot Point R3 80.37    

Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 7.1%, above expectations (5.7%) in April

Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -1.6%, below expectations (-0.7%) in April

NZD/USD received pressure due to the emergence of the risk aversion sentiment after the higher-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US) was released on Thursday.

NZD/USD pares daily losses amid hawkish comments from RBNZ officials on Friday.Strong PMI data pushed US yields higher, bolstering the Greenback.The improved Kiwi Consumer Confidence could limit the losses of the New Zealand Dollar.NZD/USD received pressure due to the emergence of the risk aversion sentiment after the higher-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US) was released on Thursday. The data reinforced the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) of maintaining higher policy rates for an extended period. The NZD/USD pair trades around 0.6100 during the Asian session on Friday. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 54.4 in May from April's 51.3, marking the highest level since April 2022. The index exceeded market expectations of 51.1. The Service PMI surged to 54.8, indicating the biggest output growth in a year, while the Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9. Additionally, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes suggested that Fed policymakers expressed concerns about the lack of progress on inflation, which was more persistent than expected at the start of 2024. Investors are expected to closely monitor US Durable Goods Orders on Friday, which assess the worth of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods meant to last for three years or more. Additionally, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will offer insight into consumer attitudes toward financial and income situations in the United States. In New Zealand, the ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose to 84.9 in May from April’s 82.1, yet it remains relatively low, staying close to values observed during the pandemic response. While this uptick in data may have offered some support for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), limiting the downside of the NZD/USD pair. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stated on Friday that "cutting interest rates is not part of the near-term discussion." Additionally, RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk expressed concern about near-term inflation risks, noting that the bank has adjusted its modeling after underestimating domestic inflation strength. In an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, Governor Adrian Orr played down the likelihood of another interest rate hike, indicating that the bank would only tighten policy further if necessary to contain inflation expectations. Orr also mentioned that the central bank could consider easing before inflation reaches 2%. NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6097 Today Daily Change -0.0002 Today Daily Change % -0.03 Today daily open 0.6099   Trends Daily SMA20 0.603 Daily SMA50 0.6003 Daily SMA100 0.6071 Daily SMA200 0.6042   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6138 Previous Daily Low 0.6091 Previous Weekly High 0.6146 Previous Weekly Low 0.5995 Previous Monthly High 0.6079 Previous Monthly Low 0.5851 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.612 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6109 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6081 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6062 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6033 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6128 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6157 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6175    

Indian Rupee (INR) trades with a mild positive bias on Friday despite the rebound of the US Dollar (USD).

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On Friday, investors will focus on the US Durable Goods Orders, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the Fed’s Waller speech for fresh impetus. The stronger US economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials might lift the Greenback and limit the downside for the pair. Also, the foreign outflows ahead of India's upcoming election outcome might also weigh on the INR.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains strong, supported by robust economic data India’s flash HSBC Composite PMI came in at 61.7 in May from 61.5 in April, reaching the third strongest reading in nearly 14 years and marking the 34th consecutive month above the 50-level, which separates growth from contraction. The Indian Manufacturing PMI dropped to 58.4 in May from 58.8 in April. The services PMI index rose to a four-month high of 61.4 in May from 60.8 in April.  The preliminary US S&P Composite PMI came in better than market expectations, jumping to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, the highest level since April 2022. The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May versus 50.0 in April, above the market consensus of 50.0. The Services PMI jumped to 54.8 in May, better than the estimation and previous reading of 51.3. The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 18 declined to 215K from the previous week's reading of 223K, lower than the expectation of 220K. Technical analysis: USD/INR becomes more vulnerable on the daily timeframe The Indian Rupee trades stronger on the day. The USD/INR pair has formed the Head and Shoulders pattern since March 21. The bullish picture of the pair seems fragile on the daily chart as the price is hovering around the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the neckline. If USD/INR crosses below the mentioned level, its downside could resume. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in bearish territory near 42.30, suggesting that further consolidation or downside cannot be ruled out. 

The confluence of the 100-day EMA and the neckline of 83.20 is the potential support level for USD/INR. A decisive closing price below this level could pave the way to the 83.00 psychological level and a low of January 15 at 82.78. 

On the upside, any follow-through buying above the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders pattern of 83.54 (high of May 13) would end up invalidating the chart pattern and attract some buyers to a high of April 17 at 83.72 en route to 84.00. 

US Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Pound Sterling.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.04% 0.03% 0.05% 0.10% 0.07% 0.05% 0.10%EUR-0.04%   -0.01% -0.01% 0.08% 0.04% 0.03% 0.05%GBP-0.03% 0.01%   0.02% 0.09% 0.07% 0.05% 0.07%CAD-0.04% 0.04% 0.00%   0.10% 0.04% 0.04% 0.06%AUD-0.10% -0.07% -0.09% -0.06%   -0.05% -0.05% 0.00%JPY-0.09% -0.05% -0.06% -0.06% 0.02%   0.01% 0.02%NZD-0.05% -0.03% -0.04% -0.02% 0.05% 0.00%   0.02%CHF-0.10% -0.04% -0.07% -0.06% 0.01% -0.02% -0.04%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued its decline on Friday after the release of softer National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by the Statistics Bureau of Japan.

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The annual inflation rate dropped to 2.5% in April from 2.7% in the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of moderation but still staying above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target. This sustained inflation keeps pressure on the central bank to consider further policy tightening. The Bank of Japan has emphasized that a virtuous cycle of sustained, stable achievement of its 2% price target along with strong wage growth is essential for normalizing policy. Meanwhile, investors expect that the persistent weakness of the JPY might compel the BOJ to advance its next interest rate hike to mitigate the impact on the cost of living, according to Reuters. US Dollar (USD) advances on hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) of maintaining higher policy rates for an extended period. This sentiment is reinforced by the higher-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US) that was released on Thursday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has decreased to 46.6% from 49.4% a day earlier. Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen extends losses after softer CPI Japan’s Core CPI (YoY), which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.2% in April as expected, slowing for the second straight month, as compared to March’s reading of 2.6%. The S&P Global US Composite PMI jumped to 54.4 in May, from 51.3 in April, reaching its highest point since April 2022 and surpassing market expectations of 51.1. The Service PMI climbed to 54.8, reflecting the largest output growth in a year, while the Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.9. The Bank of Japan announced on Thursday that it left the Japanese government bonds (JGB) amounts unchanged compared to the previous operation. Over a month ago, the BoJ trimmed the amount of 5-10 years it bought in a scheduled operation. Tensions are escalating following Lai Ching-te's assumption of office as Taiwan's new president. Chinese state media reports indicate that China has deployed numerous fighter jets and conducted simulated strikes in the Taiwan Strait and around groups of Taiwan-controlled islands, per Reuters. Japan’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on Thursday by Jibun Bank and S&P Global, rose to 50.5 in May from April’s 49.6, surpassing market expectations of 49.7. This marks the first growth since May 2023. Meanwhile, the Services PMI fell to 53.6 from the previous 54.3, still indicating the fastest expansion in eight months. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1% this week for the first time since May 2013, fueled by traders' increasing bets that the Bank of Japan would tighten policy further in 2024. Technical Analysis: USD/JPY moves above the psychological level of 157.00 The USD/JPY pair trades around 157.10 on Friday. A rising wedge pattern on the daily chart suggests a potential bearish reversal as the pair approaches the wedge’s tip. Despite this, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating continued bullish momentum. A decline below this level would signify a shift in momentum. The USD/JPY pair might retest the upper boundary of the rising wedge at approximately 157.20. If it breaks above this level, the pair could advance toward the recent high of 160.32. On the downside, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 156.33 seems to appear as immediate support, followed by the lower threshold of the rising wedge and a psychological level of 156.00. A break below this level could exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair, potentially moving it toward the throwback support at 151.86. USD/JPY: Daily ChartJapanese Yen price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.09% 0.06% 0.07% 0.07%EUR-0.03%   0.00% -0.01% 0.08% 0.03% 0.07% 0.04%GBP-0.02% 0.00%   -0.01% 0.08% 0.04% 0.06% 0.04%CAD-0.03% 0.04% 0.00%   0.08% 0.04% 0.07% 0.05%AUD-0.10% -0.08% -0.09% -0.09%   -0.05% -0.02% -0.03%JPY-0.07% -0.04% -0.04% -0.05% 0.01%   0.06% 0.01%NZD-0.06% -0.07% -0.07% -0.08% 0.02% -0.03%   -0.03%CHF-0.07% -0.03% -0.05% -0.06% 0.02% -0.02% 0.00%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Hawkesby said on Friday that “cutting interest rates is not part of near-term discussion.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1.8svh}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Hawkesby said on Friday that “cutting interest rates is not part of near-term discussion. “ Further comments While near-term inflation risks are to upside, confident medium-term inflation is returning to target. No single data point will cause rate hike, watching domestic inflation pressures, expectations. A lot of uncertainty about tradable inflation going forward. Market reaction NZD/USD remains on the defensive near 0.6100 following these comments, down 0.11% on the day. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.06% 0.03% 0.14% 0.03% 0.13% 0.15% 0.08% EUR -0.06%   -0.01% 0.07% -0.05% 0.07% 0.10% 0.02% GBP -0.03% 0.00%   0.08% -0.02% 0.09% 0.11% 0.02% JPY -0.14% -0.07% -0.08%   -0.09% -0.00% 0.02% -0.07% CAD -0.03% 0.05% 0.02% 0.09%   0.09% 0.13% 0.04% AUD -0.13% -0.07% -0.09% 0.00% -0.09%   0.02% -0.06% NZD -0.15% -0.10% -0.11% -0.02% -0.13% -0.02%   -0.09% CHF -0.08% -0.02% -0.02% 0.07% -0.04% 0.06% 0.09%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).  

The USD/CAD pair trades on a stronger note for the fifth consecutive day near 1.3730 on Friday during the Asian trading hours.

USD/CAD holds positive ground around 1.3730 in Friday’s Asian session. The US S&P Global PMI came in better than expectations in May. The further decline of crude oil prices weighs on the Loonie. The USD/CAD pair trades on a stronger note for the fifth consecutive day near 1.3730 on Friday during the Asian trading hours. The stronger US Dollar (USD) following the upbeat US PMI data provides some support to the pair. Traders await the Canadian Retail Sales and US Durable Goods Orders for fresh impetus. Also, the Fed’s Waller is set to speak later in the day. 

The business activity in the US private sector grew at a faster pace than in April, according to the S&P Global. The flash US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came better than the market expectation, jumping to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May versus 50.0 in April, above the market consensus of 50.0. The Services PMI jumped to 54.8 in May, better than the estimation and previous reading of 51.3. Following the upbeat US PMI reports, the USD Index (DXY) has risen above the 105.00 hurdle and created a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. 

On the Loonie front, the decline of crude oil prices exerts some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States. Additionally, the expectation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut the interest rate before the US Fed might weigh on the Loonie against the USD. The money markets are pricing in a 53% chance of 25 basis points (bps) cut in June, while the possibility of a July rate cut is fully priced in.   USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3728 Today Daily Change -0.0002 Today Daily Change % -0.01 Today daily open 1.373   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3676 Daily SMA50 1.3647 Daily SMA100 1.3563 Daily SMA200 1.3572   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3744 Previous Daily Low 1.3657 Previous Weekly High 1.3691 Previous Weekly Low 1.359 Previous Monthly High 1.3846 Previous Monthly Low 1.3478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.371 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.369 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3676 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3623 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.359 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3763 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3797 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.385    

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Karen Silk said early Friday that she is “concerned about near-term inflation risks.” “Bank has adjusted its modeling after it underestimated the strength of domestic inflation,” she added.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Karen Silk said early Friday that she is “concerned about near-term inflation risks.” “Bank has adjusted its modeling after it underestimated the strength of domestic inflation,” she added.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session on Friday, possibly driven by risk aversion.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar continues to lose ground after the release of higher-than-expected US PMI data.Australian equities faced pressure due to the lower commodity prices amid hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed.US Dollar gained ground after FOMC Minutes suggested a lack of progress on inflation.The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session on Friday, possibly driven by risk aversion. The AUD/USD pair experiences downside as the US Dollar (USD) advances on hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) of maintaining higher policy rates for an extended period. The Australian Dollar came under pressure as the Consumer Inflation Expectation of future inflation over the next 12 months fell to 4.1% in May from 4.6% in April, marking the lowest level since October 2021. This has increased the risk of inflation remaining above the target for an extended period. The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes showed that the policymakers agreed that it was challenging to either rule in or rule out future changes in the cash rate. The US Dollar (USD) extends its gains as higher-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US), was released on Thursday. The data raised concerns that interest rates will remain elevated for much more time, sending Treasury yields higher. Additionally, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed that Fed policymakers expressed concerns about the lack of progress on inflation, which was more persistent than expected at the start of 2024. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar extends losses due to risk aversion The ASX 200 Index has rebounded, trading around 7,740 on Friday. However, Australian equities faced pressure amid lower commodity prices as stronger-than-expected US PMI data raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. The S&P Global US Composite PMI surged to 54.4 in May, up from April's 51.3. The index marked the highest level since April 2022 and exceeded market expectations of 51.1. The Service PMI rose to 54.8, indicating the biggest output growth in a year, while the Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has decreased to 46.6% from 49.4% a day earlier. The preliminary data showed on Thursday that Australian private sector activity remained expansionary for the fourth straight month in May. The preliminary Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decreased to 52.6 in May from April’s reading of 53.0, indicating a slight moderation in growth. The Judo Bank Australia Services PMI was 53.1 in May, down from April’s reading of 53.6. This marks the fourth consecutive month of expansion, albeit at a slower yet still solid pace. The Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 49.6 in May, indicating that manufacturing conditions continued to deteriorate for the fourth consecutive month. Reuters cited Chinese state media reports on Thursday, which indicated that China has deployed numerous fighter jets and conducted simulated strikes in the Taiwan Strait and around groups of Taiwan-controlled islands. Any geopolitical tension in the region may impact the Australian market as China and Australia are both close trade partners. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar hovers around the psychological level of 0.6600 The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6600 on Friday. Analysis of the daily chart indicates a weakening bullish bias as the AUD/USD pair has breached the lower boundary of a rising wedge. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at the 50 level. A further decline in this momentum indicator could confirm a bearish bias. The major support level at 0.6550 is significant. A continued decline may increase pressure on the AUD/USD pair, potentially driving it toward the throwback support region at 0.6470. On the upside, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6630, near the lower boundary of the rising wedge, could pose immediate resistance. A breakthrough above this level could reinforce the prevailing bullish bias for the AUD/USD pair, potentially leading it to reach the major level of 0.6650. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.00% -0.02% -0.03% -0.01% 0.04% 0.00% 0.04%EUR0.00%   -0.02% -0.03% 0.00% 0.05% 0.02% 0.03%GBP0.03% 0.02%   -0.01% 0.02% 0.07% 0.05% 0.07%CAD0.02% 0.06% 0.01%   0.02% 0.07% 0.05% 0.06%AUD0.03% 0.02% 0.00% -0.01%   0.06% 0.04% 0.08%JPY-0.05% -0.04% -0.06% -0.08% -0.05%   0.00% 0.00%NZD0.00% -0.02% -0.04% -0.05% -0.01% 0.03%   0.02%CHF-0.04% -0.02% -0.06% -0.07% -0.05% 0.01% -0.04%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1102, as against the previous day's fix of 7.1098 and 7.2539 Reuters estimates.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1102, as against the previous day's fix of 7.1098 and 7.2539 Reuters estimates.

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to a two-week low on Friday amid renewed US Dollar (USD) demand.

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Gold investors will take more cues from the Fedspeak. The Fed’s Waller is set to speak on Friday. The hawkish remarks from the Fed policymakers might further weigh on yellow metal. It’s worth noting that a higher rate generally hurts gold price as it increases the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. Apart from this, the US Durable Goods Order and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price retreats from record highs amid the Fed’s hawkish stance The US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 8K to 215K for the week ending May 18. This figure came in lower than the expectation of 220K and the previous week's reading of 223K. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 50.0 in April. The Services PMI climbed to 54.8 in May from the previous reading of 51.3. Both figures came in better than the estimation.  The US S&P Global Composite PMI jumped to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, beating the market expectation of 51.1, the highest level since April 2022. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he still sees upward inflation pressure, adding the Fed may need to be more patient to avoid heating the economy. China’s private sector imported 543 tonnes of gold in Q1 2024, and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 189 tonnes to its reserves during the same period, according to the latest analysis by Gainesville Coins’ Jan Nieuwenhuijs. Gold imports to India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, might decline by about a fifth in 2024 as high prices encourage retail customers to exchange old jewelry for new products, per Reuters.  Technical Analysis: Gold price’s bullish outlook remains intact, with a Bearish Divergence in focus  Gold price trades on a weaker note on the day. The precious metal keeps the bullish vibe unchanged on the daily chart as it holds above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the yellow metal has formed a bearish divergence as the price made higher highs on May 20, but the RSI indicator has formed lower highs, suggesting the momentum is slowing and a correction or consolidation in price cannot be ruled out. 

The upper boundary of Bollinger Band at $2,428 acts as an immediate resistance level for XAU/USD. A decisive break above this level could resume its climb to an all-time high of $2,450, en route to the $2,500 psychological barrier. 

On the flip side, the first downside target will emerge at a low of May 13 at $2,285. Extended losses could take gold lower to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at $2,267. Further south, the next contention level is seen at the 100-period EMA of $2,217. US Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.02% -0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.05% 0.04%EUR-0.02%   -0.02% -0.01% 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.01%GBP0.02% 0.02%   0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.08% 0.03%CAD-0.02% 0.04% -0.01%   -0.01% 0.04% 0.06% 0.02%AUD0.00% 0.01% -0.02% 0.00%   0.03% 0.05% 0.04%JPY-0.05% -0.02% -0.05% -0.04% -0.04%   0.05% -0.01%NZD-0.05% -0.05% -0.08% -0.06% -0.06% -0.02%   -0.04%CHF-0.04% 0.00% -0.04% -0.03% -0.03% 0.01% 0.01%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) meets expectations (2.2%) in April

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.4% in April

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 2.5% in April from previous 2.7%

New Zealand’s Trade Balance came in at NZD $-10.11B YoY in April versus $-9.98B prior, according to the latest data released by Statistics New Zealand on Friday.

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Further details suggest that Exports increased to $6.42B during the said month versus $6.38B prior whereas Imports rose to $6.32B compared to $5.90B in previous readings. Market reaction At the press time, the NZD/USD pair is up 0.01% on the day to trade at 0.6099. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

EUR/USD headed lower on Thursday, driven closer to the 1.0800 handle after an unexpected upswing in US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures sparked renewed fears of fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1.8svh}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} EUR/USD eases lower as risk-off flows bolster the Greenback.A spike in US Services PMIs reignite fears of sticky inflation.Fed rate cut hopes hinging in easing services inflation stumble.EUR/USD headed lower on Thursday, driven closer to the 1.0800 handle after an unexpected upswing in US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures sparked renewed fears of fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. This sent investors into the safe-haven US Dollar and deflated the Euro despite better-than-expected HCOB PMI figures earlier in the day. European and US PMI figures on Thursday both beat market expectations, with figures broadly printing above expectations and improving on previous figures, but a higher-than-forecast upswing in US Services PMIs from 51.3 to 54.8 pummeled broad-market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.Forex Today: Data continues to rule the sentimentAccording to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in barely even odds of at least a quarter-point cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Significantly lower than the 70% odds that were priced in at the beginning of the trading week, investors are grappling with the possibility of no Fed cuts in 2024. Traders’ broad hopes for Fed rate trims have been slowly ground to a paste through 2024. In December, markets were broadly pricing in at least six rate cuts from the Fed through the end of the year. Fast forward to late May, and investors are scrambling to hold onto hopes of a single cut, potentially as late as December. Friday brings a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) update for Germany, which is expected to hold steady at 0.2% for the first quarter. US Durable Goods Orders in April are slated to print during Friday’s US market session, and are forecast to backslide -0.8% MoM compared to the previous month’s 2.6%. Euro PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.51% 0.05% 0.88% 0.83% 1.34% 0.56% 0.58% EUR -0.51%   -0.50% 0.41% 0.32% 0.86% 0.08% 0.07% GBP -0.05% 0.50%   0.76% 0.82% 1.34% 0.56% 0.55% JPY -0.88% -0.41% -0.76%   -0.06% 0.47% -0.27% -0.29% CAD -0.83% -0.32% -0.82% 0.06%   0.47% -0.24% -0.25% AUD -1.34% -0.86% -1.34% -0.47% -0.47%   -0.79% -0.78% NZD -0.56% -0.08% -0.56% 0.27% 0.24% 0.79%   -0.01% CHF -0.58% -0.07% -0.55% 0.29% 0.25% 0.78% 0.01%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD is waffling into reach of the 1.0800 handle, trading on the south side of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0833. The Euro took an early run at a high bid on Thursday of 1.0860, but short pressure quickly dragged the Fiber down into fresh lows for the trading week. On daily candlesticks, EUR/USD is getting dragged back into consolidation at the 200-day EMA at 1.0801, and the pair has declined for all but one of the last five trading days. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0814 Today Daily Change -0.0009 Today Daily Change % -0.08 Today daily open 1.0823   Trends Daily SMA20 1.078 Daily SMA50 1.0778 Daily SMA100 1.0816 Daily SMA200 1.0788   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0864 Previous Daily Low 1.0818 Previous Weekly High 1.0895 Previous Weekly Low 1.0766 Previous Monthly High 1.0885 Previous Monthly Low 1.0601 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0835 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0846 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0806 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0789 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.076 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0852 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0881 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0898    

The GBP/USD pair loses its recovery momentum near 1.2695 during the early Asian session on Friday.

GBP/USD weakens to 1.2695 on the firmer USD on Friday. The US PMI accelerated to the highest level in just over two years in May. The UK inflation data dashed hopes of BoE rate cuts in June. The GBP/USD pair loses its recovery momentum near 1.2695 during the early Asian session on Friday. The major pair edges lower after retracing from the recent top around 1.2760 amid renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Later on Friday, the UK Retail Sales, US Durable Goods Orders, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be due. 

On Thursday, the flash US S&P Global Composite PMI climbed to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, above the market consensus of 51.1. This figure registered the highest level since April 2022. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in April from the previous reading of 50.0. The Services PMI improved to 54.8 in the same period from 51.3 prior. Both figures came in better than market expectations. 

A surge in prices of inputs in the manufacturing sector suggested that inflation could pick up in the months ahead, which might prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay the interest rate cut this year. This, in turn, provides some support to the Greenback and creates a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.  

On the other hand, the UK CPI inflation report earlier this week prompted investors to lower their bets on the Bank of England (BoE) rate cut next month. Investors see nearly 50% odds of a first-rate cut in August, and a quarter-point move is not fully priced in until November. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2696 Today Daily Change -0.0021 Today Daily Change % -0.17 Today daily open 1.2717   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2581 Daily SMA50 1.2582 Daily SMA100 1.2633 Daily SMA200 1.2541   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2761 Previous Daily Low 1.27 Previous Weekly High 1.2712 Previous Weekly Low 1.2509 Previous Monthly High 1.2709 Previous Monthly Low 1.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2738 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2724 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2691 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2665 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.263 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2752 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2787 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2813    

The Australian Dollar lost 0.20% against the US Dollar for the third straight day on Thursday as investors digested the latest S&P Global PMI report in the US, hinting the economy is reaccelerating.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1.8svh}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/USD falls 0.20% to 0.6605, continuing its third day of losses.US economic resurgence evident with S&P Global Composite PMI at a 12-month high of 54.4.Strong US Services PMI at 54.8 and Manufacturing PMI at 50.9 dampen hopes for a Fed rate cut.The Australian Dollar lost 0.20% against the US Dollar for the third straight day on Thursday as investors digested the latest S&P Global PMI report in the US, hinting the economy is reaccelerating. Consequently, Federal Reserve rate cut hopes were hurt, with traders expecting 27 basis points of easing toward the end of the year. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6605, virtually unchanged. Aussie Dollar slumped as the Greenback got underpinned by strong PMIs Wall Street ended the session with losses. US Treasury bond yields jumped following the release of the S&P Global Composite PMI, rising to 54.4, its highest level in twelve months. The Services PMI rose to 54.8, its highest level since October 2022, while the Manufacturing PMI expanded by 50.9, exceeding estimates and forecasts of 50.0. The data propelled the AUD/USD from around 0.6650 toward 0.6618 on the data release. Earlier, the US Department of Labor (DOL) revealed that Initial Jobless Claims rose less than expected, to 215K, below 220K, and much less than the 223K of the previous reading. Thursday data, along with the latest FOMC minutes, revealed that Fed officials are ready to tighten policy “should risks to outlook materialize and make such action appropriate.” They added that the disinflation process “would take longer than previously anticipated,” warranting higher rates for longer. On the Aussie’s front, Thursday’s economic docket featured the release of the Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs final readings for May. The Services PMI came at 49.6, unchanged while the Manufacturing PMI stood at 53.1, lower than the 53.6 on its preliminary release. AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook After trading within a narrow range of 0.6640-0.6700, the AUD/USD broke below the bottom of the range and extended its losses towards the 0.6610 region. Buyers appear to be losing momentum, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flattening out despite being in bullish territory, suggesting potential for lower price levels. The first support for AUD/USD is at 0.6600. If this level is breached, it will expose the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6562, followed by the 50 and 200-DMAs at 0.6553 and 0.6526, respectively. Conversely, if buyers regain control and push prices above 0.6640, it could pave the way towards 0.6700.AUD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6605 Today Daily Change -0.0015 Today Daily Change % -0.23 Today daily open 0.662   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6603 Daily SMA50 0.6553 Daily SMA100 0.6564 Daily SMA200 0.6528   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6686 Previous Daily Low 0.6608 Previous Weekly High 0.6714 Previous Weekly Low 0.658 Previous Monthly High 0.6644 Previous Monthly Low 0.6362 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6638 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6656 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.659 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.656 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6513 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6668 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6715 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6745   Australian Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.51% 0.04% 0.88% 0.82% 1.33% 0.59% 0.58% EUR -0.51%   -0.50% 0.42% 0.31% 0.86% 0.07% 0.07% GBP -0.04% 0.50%   0.78% 0.82% 1.35% 0.56% 0.56% JPY -0.88% -0.42% -0.78%   -0.08% 0.45% -0.29% -0.30% CAD -0.82% -0.31% -0.82% 0.08%   0.47% -0.24% -0.24% AUD -1.33% -0.86% -1.35% -0.45% -0.47%   -0.79% -0.78% NZD -0.59% -0.07% -0.56% 0.29% 0.24% 0.79%   -0.01% CHF -0.58% -0.07% -0.56% 0.30% 0.24% 0.78% 0.00%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).  

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -17, above expectations (-18) in May

New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) down to $-10.11B in April from previous $-9.87B

New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) fell from previous $588M to $91M in April

New Zealand Exports fell from previous $6.5B to $6.42B in April

New Zealand Imports climbed from previous $5.91B to $6.32B in April

Ireland Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 67.8 to 65.7 in May

NZD/USD descended to the bottom of recent consolidation as broad-market risk appetite turned sour on Thursday after rising US Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures re-ignited concerns that sticky inflation from the services sector could keep price growth elevated for much longer than rate-cut-hungry investors had initially hoped.

NZD/USD eased to the bottom of a sideways pattern on Thursday.Resurging fears of fewer Fed cuts bolstered Greenback.NZ Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations recover ground but remain low.NZD/USD descended to the bottom of recent consolidation as broad-market risk appetite turned sour on Thursday after rising US Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures re-ignited concerns that sticky inflation from the services sector could keep price growth elevated for much longer than rate-cut-hungry investors had initially hoped. Rate cut expectations knocked lower through the day, dragging risk assets lower and bumping the US Dollar into higher bids on the day.Forex Today: Data continues to rule the sentimentThe Kiwi is heading into the early Friday market session on the low end, but could find thin support from a slight improvement in New Zealand Consumer Confidence figures. ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence in May rose to 84.9 from April’s 81.9. Despite the rebound, New Zealand consumer confidence remains on the low side in the aggregate, sticking close to values seen during the pandemic response.  Consumer Inflation Expectations in May also eased further, declining to 3.8% compared to April’s 4.4%. On the other hand, Consumer House Price Inflation rose further to 3.5% from 3.2%. NZD/USD technical outlook The Kiwi has been churning sideways recently, with a technical ceiling hardening from 0.6140. Bids are catching technical support from the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6089. Daily candlesticks are catching a squeeze pattern into the midrange with the pair trading just north of the 200-day EMA at 0.6070. NZD/USD hourly chart NZD/USD daily chart NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.61 Today Daily Change 0.0003 Today Daily Change % 0.05 Today daily open 0.6097   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6022 Daily SMA50 0.6003 Daily SMA100 0.6072 Daily SMA200 0.6042   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6153 Previous Daily Low 0.6083 Previous Weekly High 0.6146 Previous Weekly Low 0.5995 Previous Monthly High 0.6079 Previous Monthly Low 0.5851 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6126 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.611 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6069 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6041 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5999 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6139 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6181 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6209    

Silver price tumbled more than 2% on Thursday as economic data from the United States showed that business activity is faring well amid a high interest rates economy.

Silver falls 2.18%, trading at $30.10, as strong US business activity data impacts the market.Key support levels: $30.00 psychological level, April 12 high at $29.79, and $29.00.Additional support at May 18, 2021, high of $28.74 and June 10, 2021, high of $28.28.Silver price tumbled more than 2% on Thursday as economic data from the United States showed that business activity is faring well amid a high interest rates economy. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.10, down 2.18%. XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Silver’s uptrend remains intact, but the rapid and strong movement has led to a mean reversion. The buyer’s momentum is fading, as hinted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below the 70.00 level, aiming toward the 50-midline. This suggests that sellers are gathering control. Given this context, the first support level for XAG/USD would be the $30.00 psychological level. If further weakness occurs, the next support level would be the April 12 high, now turned support, at $29.79, followed by $29.00. Additional key support levels include the May 18, 2021, high at $28.74, and the June 10, 2021, high at $28.28. XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartXAG/USD Overview Today last price 30.12 Today Daily Change -0.66 Today Daily Change % -2.14 Today daily open 30.78   Trends Daily SMA20 28.43 Daily SMA50 27.28 Daily SMA100 25.13 Daily SMA200 24.21   Levels Previous Daily High 32.2 Previous Daily Low 30.76 Previous Weekly High 31.6 Previous Weekly Low 27.97 Previous Monthly High 29.8 Previous Monthly Low 24.75 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 31.31 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 31.65 Daily Pivot Point S1 30.29 Daily Pivot Point S2 29.8 Daily Pivot Point S3 28.84 Daily Pivot Point R1 31.73 Daily Pivot Point R2 32.69 Daily Pivot Point R3 33.18    

New Zealand's ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence in May rebounded to 84.9 from the previous 11-month low of 81.9.

New Zealand's ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence in May rebounded to 84.9 from the previous 11-month low of 81.9. May's thin rebound still leaves aggregate consumer confidence near pandemic lows, but consumer inflation expectations also eased to 3.8% from 4.4%, printing at its lowest level since October of 2020. Market reaction The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is trading on the low side of near-term consolidation in the early Friday market session, pushed to an intraday bottom as broad-market flows bolster the Greenback. NZD/USD is trading near 0.6100 amidst a stubborn sideways pattern. About ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence The Consumer Confidence released by the ANZ is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: 84.9 (May) vs 82.1

The USD/SGD recovered from daily lows, and ahead of the Asian session is trading with slight gains.

USD/SGD rose to 1.3515 and managed to clear all of its daily losses.The US saw an uptick in manufacturing and services PMI data which bolstered the Dollar.Strong Jobless Claims figures are also painting a resilient US economy which justifies the delay of rate cuts by the Fed.The USD/SGD recovered from daily lows, and ahead of the Asian session is trading with slight gains. The pair's movements have been influenced primarily by the cautious posture of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seen in Wednesday’s minutes, and the strong US Manufacturing and Services PMI figures. Strong Unemployment data released during the European session contributed to the recovery. While the US Federal Reserve maintains its cautious approach towards monetary easing, strong manufacturing and service sector data seem to justify the bank’s stance. May's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI surpassed market expectations, increasing to 50.9 compared to April's figure of 50.0. Furthermore, a robust increase was also seen in the services PMI, which accelerated to 54.8 from 51.3, undermining market expectations. Additionally, the US Department of Labor reported a rise in Jobless Claims, which was below the expected estimates, suggesting that the labor market remains strong. The strong economic figures fueled a rise in US Treasury yields which seems to be signalling that markets are delaying the start of the easing cycle. This is corroborated by the CME FedWatch Tool which indicated that the odds of a cut in September declined just below 40%. Next week, the US will release April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data which will provide additional insights into the US economy.. USD/SGD technical analysis Within the daily overview, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is treading in negative territory, inclining slightly towards a neutral trend while oscillating around the 50 mark. However, a recovery was seen after bottoming at 44 which may imply that the buyers are gaining ground. The decreasing red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram reveals a decreasing selling momentum, providing a signal that the bear's time might be over. USD/SGD daily chart USD/SGD Overview Today last price 1.3518 Today Daily Change 0.0010 Today Daily Change % 0.07 Today daily open 1.3508   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3534 Daily SMA50 1.352 Daily SMA100 1.3461 Daily SMA200 1.3493   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3514 Previous Daily Low 1.3459 Previous Weekly High 1.356 Previous Weekly Low 1.342 Previous Monthly High 1.369 Previous Monthly Low 1.3438 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3493 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.348 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3473 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3438 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3418 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3528 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3549 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3583    
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