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23:48 Australian Dollar finds tentative footing near 0.6000 amid tariff turmoil, mixed signals on Tuesday
The Australian Dollar staged a fragile bounce during Tuesday’s American session, holding near the 0.6000 zone after rebounding from session lows. This recovery came as the US Dollar’s earlier strength faded, helping risk currencies like the Aussie stabilize within their recent five-year low range.
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The Australian Dollar staged a fragile bounce during Tuesday’s American session, holding near the 0.6000 zone after rebounding from session lows. This recovery came as the US Dollar’s earlier strength faded, helping risk currencies like the Aussie stabilize within their recent five-year low range. Market sentiment improved somewhat following reports that the US is in trade talks with dozens of countries, although China remains a clear outlier. At the same time, the latest batch of tariff announcements from Washington — featuring a cumulative import duty exceeding 100% on Chinese goods — has kept downside pressure alive. On the technical front, AUD/USD remains tilted lower, but mixed signals across oscillators hint at potential short-term consolidation.
Daily digest market movers: Tariff showdown persists
After a turbulent start to the week, sentiment improved on Tuesday following confirmation from the White House that tariffs on China took effect at noon EST. Despite the escalation, US officials revealed ongoing discussions with over 50 countries, suggesting a multilateral approach outside China’s scope.Fed officials expressed concern over the inflationary risks of widespread tariffs. San Francisco Fed’s Daly warned of rising price pressure, while Chicago’s Goolsbee underscored the limited flexibility for importers to navigate the new trade landscape.Despite retaliatory threats from Beijing, risk appetite returned as markets bet on potential breakthroughs in global negotiations. Equities pared losses, Gold dipped below the $3,000 mark, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its pullback toward the 103.00 threshold.China’s Ministry of Commerce condemned Washington’s new tariff barrage as counterproductive, pledging a firm response. The comments reignited fears over Australia’s export vulnerability, especially given its reliance on China-bound goods.Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia remains under scrutiny, with increasing expectations of policy easing as trade headwinds continue to threaten the domestic outlook.
Technical analysis
AUD/USD is navigating a narrow range around the mid-point of its daily boundaries, showing hesitant movement after days of pronounced weakness. Price action remains bearish in the broader context, but intraday signals are becoming muddled.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has printed another red bar, reinforcing the dominant downtrend. In contrast, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains stuck near 29, flashing oversold conditions and leaning toward a possible rebound. Adding complexity, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also supports a recovery, suggesting the pair may be primed for short-term upside correction.However, trend indicators continue to weigh heavily on the pair. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), alongside the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), all slope downward, offering no reprieve to bulls. The Average Directional Index (ADX) remains neutral, further supporting the notion of potential sideways movement rather than directional conviction.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The Australian Dollar staged a fragile bounce during Tuesday’s American session, holding near the 0.6000 zone after rebounding from session lows. This recovery came as the US Dollar’s earlier strength faded, helping risk currencies like the Aussie stabilize within their recent five-year low range. Market sentiment improved somewhat following reports that the US is in trade talks with dozens of countries, although China remains a clear outlier. At the same time, the latest batch of tariff announcements from Washington — featuring a cumulative import duty exceeding 100% on Chinese goods — has kept downside pressure alive. On the technical front, AUD/USD remains tilted lower, but mixed signals across oscillators hint at potential short-term consolidation.
Daily digest market movers: Tariff showdown persists
After a turbulent start to the week, sentiment improved on Tuesday following confirmation from the White House that tariffs on China took effect at noon EST. Despite the escalation, US officials revealed ongoing discussions with over 50 countries, suggesting a multilateral approach outside China’s scope.Fed officials expressed concern over the inflationary risks of widespread tariffs. San Francisco Fed’s Daly warned of rising price pressure, while Chicago’s Goolsbee underscored the limited flexibility for importers to navigate the new trade landscape.Despite retaliatory threats from Beijing, risk appetite returned as markets bet on potential breakthroughs in global negotiations. Equities pared losses, Gold dipped below the $3,000 mark, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its pullback toward the 103.00 threshold.China’s Ministry of Commerce condemned Washington’s new tariff barrage as counterproductive, pledging a firm response. The comments reignited fears over Australia’s export vulnerability, especially given its reliance on China-bound goods.Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia remains under scrutiny, with increasing expectations of policy easing as trade headwinds continue to threaten the domestic outlook.
Technical analysis
AUD/USD is navigating a narrow range around the mid-point of its daily boundaries, showing hesitant movement after days of pronounced weakness. Price action remains bearish in the broader context, but intraday signals are becoming muddled.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has printed another red bar, reinforcing the dominant downtrend. In contrast, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains stuck near 29, flashing oversold conditions and leaning toward a possible rebound. Adding complexity, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also supports a recovery, suggesting the pair may be primed for short-term upside correction.However, trend indicators continue to weigh heavily on the pair. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), alongside the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), all slope downward, offering no reprieve to bulls. The Average Directional Index (ADX) remains neutral, further supporting the notion of potential sideways movement rather than directional conviction.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
23:35 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock declined to -1.057M in April 4 from previous 6.037M
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock declined to -1.057M in April 4 from previous 6.037M
22:16 Forex Today: Markets’ attention shifts to the Fed Minutes
The Greenback’s recovery seems to have run out of some steam on Tuesday, encouraging the risk complex to recoup part of the recent ground lost against the backdrop renewed hopes on the tariffs front.
The Greenback’s recovery seems to have run out of some steam on Tuesday, encouraging the risk complex to recoup part of the recent ground lost against the backdrop renewed hopes on the tariffs front.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 9: The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated markedly, coming under renewed selling interest and revisiting the sub-103.00 region. The FOMC Minutes will take centre stage, seconded by the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. Additionally, the Fed’s Barkin is expected to speak.EUR/USD reversed two daily declines in a row and regain strong upside impulse north of 1.0900 the figure on an improved sentiment in the risk-associated universe. The final Inflation Rate in Germany and the Current Account results will be released on April 11.GBP/USD set aside the weakness seen in the last couple of days and retested its key 200-day SMA past the 1.2800 barrier. Next on tap across the Channel will be the GDP data, Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker, all expected on April 11.USD/JPY partially faded two daily advances in a row and slipped back to the low-146.00s on Tuesday. The Japanese docket will include the Consumer Confidence gauge, Machine Tool Orders, Bank Lending figures, and the speech by the BoJ’s Ueda.AUD/USD added to the ongoing weakness and retreated once again to the area of five-year lows around 0.5950. The Building Permits and Private House Approvals are due in Oz.WTI tumbled to four-year troughs below the $59.00 mark per barrel, as further trade tensions and the likelihood of a global trade war spooked traders.Prices of Gold traded in an inconclusive day following three consecutive daily declines on Tuesday, maintaining the trade below the key $3,000 mark per troy ounce. Silver prices resumed their downtrend following Monday’s bullish attempt, returning below the $30.00 mark per ounce.
21:59 Fed's Daly: I'm a little concerned inflation may pick back up
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that inflation pressure from widespread tariffs is an increasing concern.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that inflation pressure from widespread tariffs is an increasing concern.Key highlightsThe hard data are not a misread of solid growth and the labor market.
I'm a little concerned inflation may pick back up from tariffs.
The uncertainty we have now can be worked through.
It is important to stay steady, and think about the net effect of the administration's slate of changes.
We don't have complete clarity on tariffs.
We have time to tread slowly and carefully on policy.
Fed policy is in a very good place, modestly restrictive.
I'm a little concerned inflation may pick back up from tariffs.
The uncertainty we have now can be worked through.
It is important to stay steady, and think about the net effect of the administration's slate of changes.
We don't have complete clarity on tariffs.
We have time to tread slowly and carefully on policy.
Fed policy is in a very good place, modestly restrictive.
21:49 Fed's Goolsbee: Tariffs are way bigger than anticipated
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned on Tuesday that US tariffs, which were far larger than most market watchers anticipated, poses a real risk to US importers who have very few fallback options.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned on Tuesday that US tariffs, which were far larger than most market watchers anticipated, poses a real risk to US importers who have very few fallback options.Key highlightsTariffs are way bigger than anticipated.
The Fed has to take the longer view, not like the stock market, which is volatile.
There is disagreement among firms on how quickly or how much the tariff increase will get passed to consumers, it could lead to bankruptcies of suppliers.
I can't wait for the GDP data to find out the investment impact.
It's not obvious how the Fed would react to negative supply shock.
Sentiment measures are almost cratering, that's a concern.
The relationship of sentiment to spending isn't as strong as before.
Businesses also aren't going to invest when it's not clear what the rules are.
There is anxiety that high inflation will return.
The Fed has to take the longer view, not like the stock market, which is volatile.
There is disagreement among firms on how quickly or how much the tariff increase will get passed to consumers, it could lead to bankruptcies of suppliers.
I can't wait for the GDP data to find out the investment impact.
It's not obvious how the Fed would react to negative supply shock.
Sentiment measures are almost cratering, that's a concern.
The relationship of sentiment to spending isn't as strong as before.
Businesses also aren't going to invest when it's not clear what the rules are.
There is anxiety that high inflation will return.
21:29 US Dollar inches higher as Greer comments stir trade hopes
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading near the 103.00 region during Tuesday’s session. Momentum picked up after upbeat labor market data last week, helping the index rebound from recent lows.
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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading near the 103.00 region during Tuesday’s session. Momentum picked up after upbeat labor market data last week, helping the index rebound from recent lows. Investors welcomed remarks from US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer, who told the Senate Finance Committee that the US is engaged in tariff discussions with nearly 50 countries.However, selling pressure resumed after the US confirmed additional tariffs to go into effect on April 9 against China.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar sees choppy session on trade dialogueUSTR Greer told lawmakers that the US is actively working with dozens of countries on tariff negotiations despite US tariffs expected to begin imminently.Optimism over trade momentum and hints at market access expansion for agriculture supported sentiment, although no clear timeline was offered.Despite engagement from several trading partners, Greer noted China remains resistant to negotiations, widening the rift between Washington and Beijing.In line with that, Trump Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said as retaliation for China's applying 34% duties on US exports the US would add another 50% tariff to Chinese goods.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that President Trump will directly participate in future talks, while European Commission President von der Leyen warned of potential retaliation if no resolution is reached.
Technical analysisThe US Dollar Index remains within a narrow range near 103.00, reflecting cautious market behavior. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.87 and Bull Bear Power at -0.98 reflect a neutral stance. Despite this, bearish signals persist from the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) all pointing lower. Similarly, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and SMA reinforce the downward tilt. Key resistance levels to watch include 103.48, 103.66 and 103.71, while immediate support stands at 102.73. A daily close above 103.18 remains crucial for bulls to regain control.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading near the 103.00 region during Tuesday’s session. Momentum picked up after upbeat labor market data last week, helping the index rebound from recent lows. Investors welcomed remarks from US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer, who told the Senate Finance Committee that the US is engaged in tariff discussions with nearly 50 countries.However, selling pressure resumed after the US confirmed additional tariffs to go into effect on April 9 against China.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar sees choppy session on trade dialogueUSTR Greer told lawmakers that the US is actively working with dozens of countries on tariff negotiations despite US tariffs expected to begin imminently.Optimism over trade momentum and hints at market access expansion for agriculture supported sentiment, although no clear timeline was offered.Despite engagement from several trading partners, Greer noted China remains resistant to negotiations, widening the rift between Washington and Beijing.In line with that, Trump Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said as retaliation for China's applying 34% duties on US exports the US would add another 50% tariff to Chinese goods.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that President Trump will directly participate in future talks, while European Commission President von der Leyen warned of potential retaliation if no resolution is reached.
Technical analysisThe US Dollar Index remains within a narrow range near 103.00, reflecting cautious market behavior. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.87 and Bull Bear Power at -0.98 reflect a neutral stance. Despite this, bearish signals persist from the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) all pointing lower. Similarly, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and SMA reinforce the downward tilt. Key resistance levels to watch include 103.48, 103.66 and 103.71, while immediate support stands at 102.73. A daily close above 103.18 remains crucial for bulls to regain control.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
21:12 Dow Jones Industrial Average pares intraday gains as equity recovery falters ahead of tariffs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fumbled an early recovery on Tuesday, briefly crossing above 39,000 before slumping back to the 38,000 handle as markets brace for tariff kick-off following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements last week.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow Jones briefly rallied on Tuesday before falling back to the 38,000 level.Equities are struggling to regain their footing after getting obliterated by the Trump administration’s tariff announcements last week.“Reciprocal” tariffs, as well as additional tariffs on China, are due to take effect at midnight EST.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fumbled an early recovery on Tuesday, briefly crossing above 39,000 before slumping back to the 38,000 handle as markets brace for tariff kick-off following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements last week. The Dow Jones is still trading in recovery territory following one of the worst three-day runs in US market history, however, topside momentum remains limited.The Trump administration’s wide array of “reciprocal” tariffs are slated to come into effect at midnight EST on April 9, but apparently, this wasn’t fast enough for additional counter-retaliatory tariffs on China. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the US’s steep 104% package of tariffs came into effect as of noon EST on Tuesday in response to China’s 34% counter-tariff in response to the US’s own 34% reciprocal tariffs announced last week. United States (US) President Donald Trump flew into a tailspin when China retaliated against his tariff package, immediately announcing an additional 50% tariff on top of all of the other import levies already set to be imposed on Chinese goods being imported into the US.Tariff stress bolsters rate cut hopesAs tariff stress continues to weigh on markets, interest rate watchers are continuing to ramp up their bets of additional Federal Reserve (Fed) easing in 2025. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are now pricing in 125-150 bps in rate cuts over the next 12 months, with 100 bps expected by the end of the year. Rate traders are also ramping up their bets of a quarter-point cut as early as May, with the majority of rate bets set on a first cut in July.US economic data takes on new importance later this week, with US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation due on Thursday, followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey results slated for Friday. The latest round of inflation and sentiment data still won’t include any direct fallout from the Trump administration’s announced tariffs, however the most recent batch of economic data will serve as important “bellwether” readings before tariff impacts begin to bleed over directly into the economy.Stock newsUS stock markets are overall higher than they were on Monday, but bullish momentum is running out of gas quickly. The financial and tech sectors recovered some ground on Tuesday, but tariff-sensitive sectors like building materials and energy providers are still languishing on the bearish side.Notable gainers on Tuesday include JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), which rose 3% to $221 per share, followed by Boeing (BA) and Nvidia (NVDA), which both rose around 2.7% to $143 and $100 per share, respectively. On the low side, Merck & Co (MRK) and Nike (NKE) both fell around 2.3%, with Merck & Co slipping below $80 per share and Nike falling to $54 per share.Read more stock news: UnitedHealth Group stock shoots up on Medicare Advantage rate hike proposalDow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones Industrial Average appears to have found a technical floor from the 37,000 handle, but the major equity index isn’t out of the woods yet. DJIA bids are still trading steeply off of all-time highs just above 45,000, with the Dow Jones down over 15% from the peak.A recovery play may be on the cards if upside momentum is able to keep the wheels on the road. However, stiff technical price ceilings are in play at the last swing low below 41,000 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 42,000.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
20:57 Mexico GDP forecast slashed, Banxico seen cutting rates aggressively in 2025 – Citi
On April 7, Citi revealed its latest Mexico Expectations Survey, in which private economists projected that the economy would grow 0.3% in 2025, less than the 0.6% expected in the last survey. For 2026, GDP is expected to decrease from 1.7% to 1.5%.
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For 2026, GDP is expected to decrease from 1.7% to 1.5%.Banxico to lower rates to 8% in 2025 and to 7% in 2026For the upcoming Banco de Mexico (Banxico) meeting in May, 29 analysts estimate the central bank will lower rates 50 basis points (bps) to 8.50%. Three participants project a 25-bps rate cut. For the rest of the year, the median expected Mexico’s interest rates to end at 8%, and for 2026, the median forecasts rates at 7%.The USD/MXN exchange rate for year-end in 2025 is 20.90, and for 2026 it is projected to rise to 21.30, 20 cents lower than the previous survey.March headline inflation is projected to end at 3.8% YoY higher than February’s 3.77% rate. Core figures are projected to end at 3.64% YoY lower than the previous month of 3.65%.Inflation expectations remained stable in 2025, with headline figures expected at 3.80% for the full year and an increase from 3.66% to 3.7% by the year’s end. For 2026, inflation is expected to remain at 3.78%, unchanged from the previous survey. Banxico FAQs What is the Bank of Mexico? The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%. How does the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy influence the Mexican Peso? The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor. How often does the Bank of Mexico meet during the year? Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
20:49 Mexican Peso weakens amid tariff concerns despite trade deal hopes
The Mexican Peso prolonged its losses for the third straight day against the Greenback as market sentiment improved, spurred by revelations of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that deals could be made with major trading partners. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 20.72, up 0.25%.
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At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 20.72, up 0.25%.As of this writing, the global equity sell-off has paused, yet bulls are not out of the woods, even though Bessent's words provide hope. Nevertheless, news broke that the White House confirmed that 104% tariffs on China went into effect at 12:00pm ESTThe Peso weakened slightly on the headlines amid a scarce economic docket. USD/MXN traders are awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, which is expected to rise slightly.Citi Mexico Expectations Survey hints that most economists project further easing by Banco de Mexico (Banxico), which is expected to cut rates 50 basis points (bps) in May. The USD/MXN exchange rate would likely remain below 21.00, and the economy is expected to grow less than expected in the previous survey.Across the border, Chicago Fed Governor Austan Goolsbee crossed the wires, saying that tariff rates are much more than what the Fed had been modelling. On the data front, the schedule is absent, yet investors are eyeing the release of the Fed’s latest minutes, alongside US CPI and PPI data.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso drops as economists project a deeper economic slowdownCiti Mexico Expectations Survey revealed that Banxico will likely cut rates to 8% toward the end of 2025. For the next year, rates are expected to fall to 7%.The poll showed that the USD/MXN is projected to end at 20.90, while inflation in 2025 will be 3.80% for the full year and increase from 3.66% to 3.7% by the year’s end.Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2025, less than the previous survey of 0.6%.Banxico’s Governor, Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, stated that the central bank will remain attentive to US trade policies and their impact on the country, with a primary focus on inflation.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso treads water as USD/MXN surges past 20.70The uptrend remains in place as the USD/MXN cleared the confluence of the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near 20.34/36, keeping the rally alive. On further strength, buyers could challenge the March 4 peak at 20.99, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high of 21.28.Conversely, if USD/MXN falls below 20.34, the first support will be the psychological 20.00 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 19.80. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
20:04 United States 3-Year Note Auction fell from previous 3.908% to 3.784%
United States 3-Year Note Auction fell from previous 3.908% to 3.784%
19:53 White House slaps 104% tariffs on China
The White House announced that 104% tariffs on China went into effect at noon Eastern Time, revealed Karoline Leavitt, Press Secretary, as retaliation for China's applying 34% duties on US exports. She added that tariffs will be collected starting on April 9th.
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The White House announced that 104% tariffs on China went into effect at noon Eastern Time, revealed Karoline Leavitt, Press Secretary, as retaliation for China's applying 34% duties on US exports. She added that tariffs will be collected starting on April 9th.Market's reaction to the headlineUS equity markets are pairing some of their earlier gains. Gold tumbled below the $3,000 mark, despite holding to modest gains of 0.27%, and the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against a basket of currencies, continued to edge lower, down 0.34% at 103.11 Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
18:52 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro holds steady near 1.0900 amid mixed momentum signals
The EUR/USD pair traded with a slight bearish bias on Tuesday after the European session, slipping mildly toward the 1.0900 region strugguling to hold earlier gains.
EUR/USD was seen around the 1.0900 zone after a mild decline on Tuesday’s session post-European hours.Despite a neutral RSI and a MACD sell signal, moving averages continue to support a bullish outlook.Support aligns near the 1.0888 area, while resistance emerges just below the 1.1000 zone.The EUR/USD pair traded with a slight bearish bias on Tuesday after the European session, slipping mildly toward the 1.0900 region strugguling to hold earlier gains. Despite the setback, the pair remains within its recent range and retains an overall bullish tone thanks to favorable longer-term technical setups. The price action was contained between intraday lows near 1.0887 and highs approaching the 1.0990 area.Daily chart
Technically, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints a neutral 58.60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) leans bearish with a sell signal. Meanwhile, other indicators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 73.12 and the Stochastic RSI Fast at 35.32 remain neutral, showing a lack of clear directional momentum for now.However, the strength lies in the moving averages. The 20-day SMA at 1.08646, the 100-day SMA at 1.05377, and the 200-day SMA at 1.07364 all point upward, reflecting broad underlying support. Similarly, the 10-day EMA and 10-day SMA—hovering near 1.08880 and 1.08662, respectively—offer additional short-term bullish cues.On the downside, immediate support is seen near 1.09059, followed by 1.0888 and the 1.08662 region. Resistance appears at 1.09816, and a break above could expose the pair to further gains toward the 1.10 threshold.
Technically, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints a neutral 58.60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) leans bearish with a sell signal. Meanwhile, other indicators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 73.12 and the Stochastic RSI Fast at 35.32 remain neutral, showing a lack of clear directional momentum for now.However, the strength lies in the moving averages. The 20-day SMA at 1.08646, the 100-day SMA at 1.05377, and the 200-day SMA at 1.07364 all point upward, reflecting broad underlying support. Similarly, the 10-day EMA and 10-day SMA—hovering near 1.08880 and 1.08662, respectively—offer additional short-term bullish cues.On the downside, immediate support is seen near 1.09059, followed by 1.0888 and the 1.08662 region. Resistance appears at 1.09816, and a break above could expose the pair to further gains toward the 1.10 threshold.
18:32 GBP/USD rebounds as Trump, Bessent stoke tariff deal hopes
The Pound Sterling recovers some ground against the Greenback on Tuesday, edges up 0.34% amid renewed hopes that tariffs are indeed used as a negotiation tools, as US President Donald Trump said that “many, many, countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us.” At the time of writing, the GBP/
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}UK’s Starmer pushes for economic partnership with US to bypass 10% export tariffs.Trump hints tariffs are leverage for new deals; Bessent says negotiations are underway, lifting risk sentiment.Traders await UK GDP data and Fed minutes; sticky US inflation could revive dollar strength and weigh on GBP.The Pound Sterling recovers some ground against the Greenback on Tuesday, edges up 0.34% amid renewed hopes that tariffs are indeed used as a negotiation tools, as US President Donald Trump said that “many, many, countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us.” At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2756 after bouncing off daily lows around 1.2700.Sterling rises 0.34% as optimism over US-UK trade talks and easing USD support short-term recoveryHopes fueled by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that trade deals would be made improved the market mood, underpinning global equities, while the US Dollar retreated somewhat.UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday that they could secure an economic partnership with the US to dodge 10% tariffs imposed on British exports to the United States.In the meantime, the UK economic schedule is light with traders eyeing the release of February’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures by the end of the week. Money market traders expect the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, with market participants estimating 75 bps of easing toward the end of 2025.Across the pond, tariff news is grabbing the headlines ahead of the release of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting minutes. After that, traders will focus on consumer and producer price inflation figures, which are expected to edge lower. Higher readings would be an unwelcome surprise for investors, pushing the Greenback higher, due to inflationary pressures.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/USD most likely trades sideways for at least two days, as participants await US inflation and UK GDP data. The range is delineated by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the bottom at 1.2736, while the 200-day SMA sits above the spot price at 1.2811.In the case of a bearish resumption, the first support would be 1.2700, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.2628. Conversely, if bulls move in and claim the 200-day SMA, the 1.2900 could be up for grabs.
British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.45% 0.97% 0.96% -0.33% 0.40% 0.00% 0.19% EUR -0.45% 0.80% 1.14% -0.15% -0.11% 0.22% 0.35% GBP -0.97% -0.80% -0.96% -0.93% -0.91% -0.58% -0.44% JPY -0.96% -1.14% 0.96% -1.27% 0.39% 0.31% -0.44% CAD 0.33% 0.15% 0.93% 1.27% 0.38% 0.37% 0.24% AUD -0.40% 0.11% 0.91% -0.39% -0.38% 0.33% 0.48% NZD -0.01% -0.22% 0.58% -0.31% -0.37% -0.33% 0.14% CHF -0.19% -0.35% 0.44% 0.44% -0.24% -0.48% -0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.45% 0.97% 0.96% -0.33% 0.40% 0.00% 0.19% EUR -0.45% 0.80% 1.14% -0.15% -0.11% 0.22% 0.35% GBP -0.97% -0.80% -0.96% -0.93% -0.91% -0.58% -0.44% JPY -0.96% -1.14% 0.96% -1.27% 0.39% 0.31% -0.44% CAD 0.33% 0.15% 0.93% 1.27% 0.38% 0.37% 0.24% AUD -0.40% 0.11% 0.91% -0.39% -0.38% 0.33% 0.48% NZD -0.01% -0.22% 0.58% -0.31% -0.37% -0.33% 0.14% CHF -0.19% -0.35% 0.44% 0.44% -0.24% -0.48% -0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
17:40 US Trade Rep. Greer: China has not indicated that it wants to work towards reciprocity
US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer said during the Senate Finance Committee hearing on Tuesday that they are currently in talks with about 50 countries about tariffs, per Reuters.
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US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer said during the Senate Finance Committee hearing on Tuesday that they are currently in talks with about 50 countries about tariffs, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Had several conversations with Japanese officials in past week.""US President Donald Trump's administration wants more market access for agriculture"Trump administration is open to ideas from other countries to achieve reciprocal trade.""China made significant changes early in phase 1 trade deal, but did not comply in large part.""Will work with India to address intellectual property, structural barriers to trade.""Higher reciprocal tariffs will go into effect tomorrow.""Many countries have said they won't retaliate, some have already lowered tariffs.""China has not indicated that it wants to work towards reciprocity.""Seeing distinct difference between China and other countries that are seeking to negotiate."Market reactionThe market mood remains upbeat following these comments. At the time of press, the S&P 500 Index was up 3.8% on the day. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
17:32 Turkey Treasury Cash Balance up to -298.42B in March from previous -397.602B
Turkey Treasury Cash Balance up to -298.42B in March from previous -397.602B
17:23 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps to near $30.50 on potential US-China trade war
Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to near $30.50 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal strengthens as its safe-haven appeal has increased, with traders becoming increasingly concerned over the outlook of trade relations between the United States (US) and China.
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The white metal strengthens as its safe-haven appeal has increased, with traders becoming increasingly concerned over the outlook of trade relations between the United States (US) and China.Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce warned that new tariff threats by US President Donald Trump were "a mistake on top of a mistake" and that China would “fight to the end” to protect its interests. The statement from Beijing came after Trump threatened to increase import duties on China to 104% if it imposed 34% tariffs on products imported from the US.On Thursday, China announced a 34% levy on exports from the US in retaliation to similar reciprocal tariffs slapped by Donald Trump on them on the Liberation Day.The scenario of a trade war between China and the US will be unfavorable for the global economy. The appeal of Silver increases amid heightening global economic tensions.However, the demand for Silver as a metal decreases, given its significant application in various industries. China is considered the manufacturing hub of the world, and silver is demanded in various industries, such as Electric Vehicles (EV), electronics, and solar energy.Going forward, the next major trigger for the Silver price will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Thursday. The inflation data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.Silver technical analysisSilver price recovers to test the breakdown region of the Ascending Triangle chart formation near its upward-sloping border around the August 8 low of $26.45. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the October 22 high of $34.87.Technically, the breakdown of the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates results in a volatility expansion, which leads to higher volume and formation of wide ticks.The overall trend of the Silver price is bearish as it trades below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $30.70.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides into the 20.00-40.00 range, indicating that a bearish momentum has been triggered.Looking down, the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the April 4 high of $32.00 will be the major barrier.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
17:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 51.3 below forecasts (53.2) in March
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 51.3 below forecasts (53.2) in March
16:56 WH Economic Adviser Hassett: Fed will decide interest rates, we respect independence
In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that they are getting ready to present a plan to US President Donald Trump on "who and when for tariff talks," per Reuters.
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In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that they are getting ready to present a plan to US President Donald Trump on "who and when for tariff talks," per Reuters.Key takeaways"Trump wants fair and reciprocal trade, will weigh that as he decides whether to accept countries' offers.""Focused like laser beam on big trading partners that have been giving us trade deficits for years.""The Fed will decide interest rates, we respect independence.""We are prioritizing trading partners for talks."Market reactionRisk flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets following these comments. At the time of press, the S&P 500 Index was up 3.45% on the day at 5,235 points. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
16:41 Copper: What rises high can fall deep – Commerzbank
The Copper price was one of the biggest losers among base metals since 2 April, starting the week by falling by more than 15%, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
The Copper price was one of the biggest losers among base metals since 2 April, starting the week by falling by more than 15%, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Copper price falls by more than 15% since 2 April"However, it was able to make up some of the losses in yesterday's trading. Ultimately, the price was down 10% by the end of the day. The fact that the market was overheated, particularly on the Comex, due to tariff fears probably contributed to the larger drop." "According to initial reports, the mood at Cesco, the largest meeting of the Copper industry currently taking place in Chile, appears to be divided: The Chilean Copper commission Cochilco, for example, expressed a rather cautious view and believes that the price peak has probably passed this year. The trade war between the USA and China in particular would be a major burden." "Meanwhile, Chile's state Copper producer was more optimistic ahead of the meeting and emphasised the good long-term demand prospects on the market. The world's largest Copper producer also reported a slight increase in production for the first quarter compared to the previous year, despite temporary shortfalls. The company is targeting production of just under 1.4 million tons for the year as a whole, marking the second consecutive year of increased production."
16:38 GBP/USD edges slightly lower – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets price in more BoE easing risk"UK PM Starmer’s response to trade tensions appears to be centered around domestic measures targeting regulation reforms and tax breaks for sectors impacted by the US tariffs. Rate expectations have also shifted, with markets moving to price in a full 25bps cut for the BoE’s May 8 meeting, adding about 5bps over the past week or so.""The loss of rate support adds to near-term downside risk for GBP. GBP/USD’s sharp reversal of last week’s delivered a break of its one-month range and a push to fresh local lows in the mid/lower-1.28s. The RSI has drifted below 50, in bearish territory, and there doesn’t appear to be any clear support ahead of the lower 1.27s."
16:37 EUR underperforms amid broad USD losses – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating in a tight range in the 1.09s, eking out a marginal gain against the US Dollar (USD) while underperforming all the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD weakness.
Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating in a tight range in the 1.09s, eking out a marginal gain against the US Dollar (USD) while underperforming all the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD weakness. EUR consolidates on the day"The data calendar remains light, and focus is on next Thursday’s ECB decision where some policymakers are making a renewed case for easing in response to recent trade tensions. The EUR’s loss of support from spreads is notable, and our fair value estimate has fallen to the lower 1.07s from 1.10 on April 3." "EUR/USD is still consolidating last week’s gains and trading in a relatively tight range roughly bound between support just below 1.09 and resistance above 1.11. Momentum is bullish but fading and the RSI is offering negative divergence, in that it failed to confirm last week’s fresh highs in spot."
16:22 OPEC+ sticks to production increase for the time being – Commerzbank
At a virtual meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ oil ministers at the weekend, the only thing that was apparently discussed was better compliance with existing production targets, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
At a virtual meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ oil ministers at the weekend, the only thing that was apparently discussed was better compliance with existing production targets, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Oil market is at risk of facing a considerable oversupply"New plans for cuts to compensate for previous overproduction are to be submitted by the respective countries by 15 April. There is no mention of a reassessment of the sharp increase in production announced for May." "Instead, the press release only contains the usual wording stating that an OPEC+ meeting can be convened at any time at the request of the JMMC. The next regular official OPEC+ meeting is on 28 May." "If OPEC+ sticks to the planned production increase of 411 thousand barrels per day in May, the oil market is at risk of facing a considerable oversupply in the short term, which would put further pressure on oil prices."
16:19 CAD trades near estimated fair value on softer USD – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has firmed up a little in response to the improvement in risk appetite, although it is lagging its commodity cousins’ intraday gains, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has firmed up a little in response to the improvement in risk appetite, although it is lagging its commodity cousins’ intraday gains, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD is firmer on softer narrower spreads"Narrower US/ Canada spreads are providing the CAD with some additional tailwinds (2Y swap spreads are the narrowest in four months) but the CAD needs a fair bit more spread compression to sustain more meaningful gains, I believe. Spot is trading right on our fair value estimate (1.4196) today. The BoC’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey reflected weaker business sentiment and widespread uncertainty related to tariffs which has spilled over into hiring and investment decision-making. No surprise." "As might be expected, however, tariffs are also lifting price expectations. Expectations for input prices turned higher for the first time in two years, according to the survey. Markets are clearly leaning towards more easing coming from the Bank in the coming months but policymakers are likely to want more certainty around the outlook than they have right now before deciding whether to cut. I think a move next week is unlikely." "Spot remains range-bound in a broad sense. But short-term, price signals do suggest the USD peaked yesterday near 1.43 via a daily “doji” candle signals and a bearish outside range pattern on the 6-hour chart. Shortterm resistance is 1.4260/70, with firm resistance at 1.4400/20. Support is 1.4150 and 1.4025/30."
16:16 USD: Equity markets steady, giving high beta FX a lift – Scotiabank
Markets are steadier so far today, with a lot more green on the screen than over the past few days.
Markets are steadier so far today, with a lot more green on the screen than over the past few days. Gains in Asian and European equities as well as US futures reflect market hopes that tariffs might be delayed or quickly negotiated away rather than concrete developments, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD softer overall as stocks recover, lifting high beta FX"Price swings yesterday underscore the market’s sensitivity to tariff news. An erroneous, (actual 'fake' news) X post suggested the Trump administration could consider a 90-day pause in tariffs, triggering a very brief 7% jump stocks. Instead, in the real world, President Trump threatened to level another 50- percentage point tariff on China if it did not remove its retaliatory 34% tariff on US imports, helping dump stocks off the snap high." "So far, 'crickets' from China on that but the Chinese authorities did wheel out measures to help support local markets and the PBoC allowed the USD/CNY fix to nudge above the 7.20 level, a point which has marked the top of the fixing range recently, in a sign that more CNY weakness may be tolerated to help offset massive tariffs. Messaging from the administration on tariff policy remains confusing. Treasury Sec. Bessent announced talks with Japan on tariffs could start shortly while trade advisor Navarro said Trump would not negotiate on tariffs. Markets may lack enough clarity on tariff policy end goals to form a solid base for now." "The USD’s broader rebound appears to have stalled, with firmer stocks helping lift high beta FX; the AUD and NZD are leading gains among the major currencies on the session. DXY gains may reverse from the mid-103 area and the index faces solid technical resistance at 103.75/00 on the short-term chart. There are no US data reports today. The just-released NFIB Small Business Optimism index dropped 3.3 points to a weaker-than-forecast 97.4 in March. Respondents anticipate weaker sales and hiring and a softer outlook for the broader economy amid uncertainty over tariffs."
15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 7.2% in April 4 from previous 4.8%
United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 7.2% in April 4 from previous 4.8%
15:54 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.
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Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $915.30 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $913.55. In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $925.55 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $918.95 at the previous close.
Palladium FAQs Why do people buy Palladium?
Palladium is a rare and valuable precious metal with strong industrial demand, particularly in the automotive sector. It is widely used in catalytic converters to reduce vehicle emissions, making it essential for global environmental regulations. Investors also see palladium as a store of value, similar to gold and silver, and a potential hedge against inflation. Given its supply constraints and high demand, palladium often attracts traders looking for price volatility and profit opportunities. What is Palladium in trading?
In trading, palladium (XPD/USD) is considered both an industrial and a precious metal. It is traded on major commodity exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM). Traders speculate on palladium prices through futures contracts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and spot markets. Since palladium supply is concentrated in a few countries, particularly Russia and South Africa, geopolitical and mining disruptions can lead to significant price swings, making it an attractive asset for short-term traders and long-term investors alike. Is Palladium more expensive than Gold?
Palladium has historically been less expensive than gold, but in recent years, it has traded at a premium due to rising demand and tight supply. Prices fluctuate based on market conditions, but palladium has, at times, outperformed gold due to its critical role in the automotive industry. However, as markets shift and industrial demand changes, the price relationship between the two metals can vary. What does the price of Palladium depend on?
Palladium prices are influenced by several factors, including industrial demand, supply constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. The automotive industry is the biggest driver of demand, as stricter emissions regulations increase the need for palladium-based catalytic converters. Supply is heavily dependent on mining output from Russia and South Africa, making the metal vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, broader market trends, such as the strength of the US dollar, interest rates, and economic growth, can impact palladium prices, as they do with other precious metals. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) prices mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
14:50 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Trump is committed to fixing trade imbalances
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he was not involved in the calculations of tariffs rates and reiterated that US President Donald Trump is committed to fixing trade i mbalances.
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In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he was not involved in the calculations of tariffs rates and reiterated that US President Donald Trump is committed to fixing trade i mbalances.Key takeaways"Tariff negotiations are result of massive inbound calls, not market.""Trump will be personally involved in negotiations.""If we're successful, the tariffs would be a melting ice cube in a way.""We have discussed which countries to prioritize.""If there are solid proposals, we can end up with good deals.""As part of calculus with deals, some part of tariffs may stay on.""China's escalation was a big mistake."Market reactionThe US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen losing 0.3% on the day at 103.15. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
14:42 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Slumps below 1.4200
The USD/CAD pair fall sharply below the key level of 1.4200 in Tuesday’s European session.
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The Loonie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure amid fears that the United States (US) economy could enter a recession due to the imposition of harsh-than-expected tariffs by President Donald Trump.Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday in addition to a 10% universal baseline levy, whose burden is expected to be borne by US importers. Theoretically, importers will pass on the impact of higher prices to consumers. Such a scenario will be inflationary and slow down the domestic economic growth by diminishing the purchasing power of households.Fears of potential US economic shocks have led market experts to revise their growth forecasts. Investment banking firm JP Morgan has forecasted that the US economy could end the year with a 0.3% decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades higher against the US Dollar, but its outlook remains uncertain as the probability of the Canadian economy to enter a recession has swelled. Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Mark Carney said on Monday that President Donald Trump’s tariffs have increased the possibility of a US recession, and that will have a major “negative effect on the Canadian economy”.USD/CAD recovers strongly after a “fake” breakdown of the 1.4150 support plotted from the February 14 low. The near-term outlook of the Loonie pair is still bearish as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is acting as a major barricade around 1.4300.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds the key level of 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI fails to hold the 40.00 level.The pair would strengthen if it breaks above the April 3 high of 1.4320. Such a scenario would send the major higher to near the April 1 high of 1.4415 and the March 14 high of 1.4447.On the flip side, a fresh downside would appear if the pair breaks below the December 6 low of 1.4020. The scenario would expose the pair to the psychological support of 1.4000, followed by the November 25 low of 1.3927.USD/CAD daily charta Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
14:17 Oil prices at 4-year low – Commerzbank
Oil prices remained under pressure at the start of the new trading week. Brent fell at times by more than 5% to $62.5 per barrel, the lowest level in four years, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
Oil prices remained under pressure at the start of the new trading week. Brent fell at times by more than 5% to $62.5 per barrel, the lowest level in four years, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Brent and WTI hit four-year lows"WTI slipped to $59 per barrel. Gasoil fell below $600 per ton for the first time since the end of 2021. Since Trump announced the tariffs, oil prices have fallen by more than 16% at their lowest point. The main negative factor is concerns about a global recession triggered by the trade war, which would lead to a significant slowdown in oil demand." "In China in particular, oil consumption could be even weaker due to the exceptionally high tariffs. Negative effects on oil demand are also expected in the US due to the anticipated countermeasures by other countries and higher inflation as a result of tariffs, even if the fall in oil prices could lead to lower gasoline prices and thus provide some relief.""Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling prices for customers in Asia by $2.3 per barrel in May compared to the Oman/Dubai benchmark, the largest reduction in more than two years. This also points to weaker oil demand. After all, the significantly higher production levels from May onwards can apparently only be sold at more substantial discounts. Market participants surveyed by Reuters before the announcement of the production increase had expected a smaller price reduction."
14:08 Silver price plummets, Gold/Silver ratio at 100 – Commerzbank
Silver was hit even harder, losing a good 7% on Friday and plummeting to a 7-month low of USD 28.3 per troy ounce yesterday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Silver was hit even harder, losing a good 7% on Friday and plummeting to a 7-month low of USD 28.3 per troy ounce yesterday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Silver takes a heavy hit amid rising risk aversion"Since last Wednesday, the drop in silver has totalled a good 16%, meaning that the silver price has fallen almost as much as oil prices. The gold/silver ratio subsequently rose above the 100 mark for the first time since mid-2020, when it was the coronavirus pandemic that put the silver price under massive pressure." "This shows once again that silver is not a safe haven in times of sharply rising risk aversion or increasing fears of recession, but behaves like a cyclical commodity. The reason for this is the great importance of industrial demand, which has risen significantly in recent years and now accounts for almost 60% of total silver demand. Industrial demand is therefore both a blessing and a curse for silver." "A blessing because it is strongly driven by demand for applications for the climate-neutral generation and use of energy (photovoltaics, e-mobility), a curse because it is very sensitive to the economy and becomes a negative factor in times of high risk aversion and recession fears, as is currently the case. It is therefore impossible at the moment to estimate how long the weakness in silver prices will continue."
14:00 USD/CAD is down on broad USD weakness – BBH
Bank of Canada faces weak business outlook, BBH FX analysts report.
Bank of Canada faces weak business outlook, BBH FX analysts report. Markets price in rate cuts as BOC faces economic slowdown"The Bank of Canada’s (BOC) business outlook survey deteriorated in Q1. The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator reversed its upward trend and remains below average. The decline reflects lower balances of opinion on employment, investment, and measures of future sales.""Meanwhile, one year inflation expectations increased for a second consecutive quarter to 3.61% in March, the highest since October 2023. Still, longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored around 2% and leaves room for the BOC to ease again next week." "Markets price-in 70% odds of a follow-up 25bps BOC policy rate cut to 2.50% at the April 16 meeting and a total of almost 75bps of easing over the next 12 months."
13:59 AUD/USD surges to near 0.6050 despite multiple headwinds
The AUD/USD pair soars to near 0.6050 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) advances strongly even though fears of a trade war between the United States (US) and China have escalated.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD gains sharply to near 0.6050 despite worsening trade relations between the US and China.In retaliation to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, China has imposed a 34% import duty on goods coming from the US.Fed Powell expects that risks to inflation and unemployment have skewed on the upside by Trump’s tariffs.The AUD/USD pair soars to near 0.6050 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) advances strongly even though fears of a trade war between the United States (US) and China have escalated. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.18% -0.17% -0.63% -0.36% -0.94% -0.98% -0.56% EUR 0.18% -0.04% -0.50% -0.19% -0.76% -0.76% -0.39% GBP 0.17% 0.04% -0.43% -0.13% -0.71% -0.72% -0.28% JPY 0.63% 0.50% 0.43% 0.26% -0.31% -0.38% 0.11% CAD 0.36% 0.19% 0.13% -0.26% -0.59% -0.60% -0.13% AUD 0.94% 0.76% 0.71% 0.31% 0.59% -0.00% 0.44% NZD 0.98% 0.76% 0.72% 0.38% 0.60% 0.00% 0.45% CHF 0.56% 0.39% 0.28% -0.11% 0.13% -0.44% -0.45% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
China vows to retaliate against the US in the face of worse-than-expected tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce warned that the US president’s new tariff threats were "a mistake on top of a mistake" and China will “fight to the end” to protect its interest.The comments came from Beijing after Trump threatened on Monday to slap additional 50% import duty on China for announcing 34% levy on the US as a countermeasure against reciprocal tariffs revealed on Liberation Day.An absence of demand for goods by the US from China will also stem a sharp decline in the business activity in Australia, given its significant dependency on its exports to China.In addition to US-China trade tensions, bloating Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dovish bets are also unfavorable for the Australian Dollar. RBA dovish bets have swelled as tariffs on China are also a big hit on the Australian economy.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure as investors expect that Trump’s tariff agenda could lead to a resurgence in inflation and slower economic growth in the US economy. We face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation," Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
13:48 Gold price under pressure despite high risk aversion – Commerzbank
The Gold price was unable to escape the sell-off on the commodity and financial markets and also fell significantly, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
The Gold price was unable to escape the sell-off on the commodity and financial markets and also fell significantly, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Gold struggles amid market turmoil"This may sound strange, but it has happened several times in periods of heightened risk aversion, as market participants have to sell Gold positions to offset losses elsewhere, e.g. in equities. As such, the world's largest Gold ETF has recorded outflows of 9.4 tons in the last two trading days. This is probably one of the reasons why Gold has fallen by up to 5% since Friday." "Yesterday, the price slipped well below the $3,000 per troy ounce mark at times. The significant rise in rate cut expectations in recent days - the Fed Funds Futures now imply that the Fed will cut rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year - suggests that the Gold price will soon rise again. The fact that the Chinese central bank PBoC announced that it had bought Gold for the fifth month in a row in March made headlines yesterday." "However, the PBoC's Gold holdings rose by less than three tons month-on-month, meaning that purchases were even lower than in previous months. Apparently, the sharp price rise also curbed the PBoC's buying interest in March."
13:41 US Dollar softens with equities turning green
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades above 103.20 at the time of writing on Tuesday, slightly lower in the day while risk on is trying to take over market sentiment.
The Greenback softens a touch on Tuesday against major peers amidst trade war tensions.Markets revalued the Greenback to the upside after upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls numbers and US yields rebounding. The US Dollar Index trades back above 103.00 and looks to consolidate further. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades above 103.20 at the time of writing on Tuesday, slightly lower in the day while risk on is trying to take over market sentiment. Over the past few days, the overall risk-off sentiment had rather devalued the Greenback substantially, though since the strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) released on Friday, the DXY has been climbing back. The question will be if the index can hold on to this recovery when more US data comes in. On the economic calendar front, some light data is set to be published. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release its Business Optimism Index for March. With the current tariffs narrative, markets will be sensitive to see how business sentiment is in the US, as this is often seen as a leading indicator. Daily digest market movers: Sentiment to watch The NFIB Business Optimism Index for March is due. The actual number comes in at 97.4, missing the elevated estimate at 101.3 and below the previous reading at 100.7.At 17:00 GMT, a 3-Year Note Auction will be released in the US. At 18:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary C. Daly moderates a discussion with Brigitte C. Madrianm Dean of the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business.A change from the red numbers this Tuesday, with both the Japanese Nikkei and Topix having closed off over 6% higher. Europe and the US face gains of over 1% across the board. The CME FedWatch tool shows chances for an interest rate cut by the Fed in May standing at 28.6%, falling back from nearly 50% on Monday. For June, the chances of a rate cut are 94.5%, with a slim 5.5% chance for no rate cut at all.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.16%, bouncing off the five-month low at 3.85%. Considering this surge back above 4.00%, interest rate cut bets for the upcoming Fed meeting in May are being pared back. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Chopping around A parental disclosure for the US Dollar Index is in its place here. With the significant moves and pickup in volatility, the DXY could again fall or jump quite quickly. Traders will need to stick to known levels and trade what they see instead of trying to outsmart the market under these conditions. The first level to watch out for is 103.18, which needs to see a daily close above it. Above there, the 104.00 round level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.86 come into play. On the downside, 101.90 is the first line of defense, and it should be able to trigger a bounce as it has been able to hold the last two trading days. Maybe not on Tuesday, but in the coming days, a break below 101.90 could see a leg lower towards 100.00. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
13:37 Australia’s consumer confidence hits 6-month low amid tariff concerns – BBH
Australia’s business survey was mixed but consumer confidence plunged, BBH FX analysts report.
Australia’s business survey was mixed but consumer confidence plunged, BBH FX analysts report. RBA Governor Michele Bullock gives a keynote speech Thursday"The NAB March Business conditions rose 1 point to 4 remain a little below average while business confidence fell 1 point to -3. Meanwhile, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index dropped to a six-month low at 90.1 in April from 95.9 in March due to the tariff turmoil.""RBA Governor Michele Bullock gives a keynote speech Thursday. Markets will look to see if Bullock pivots away from her cautious policy guidance to an outright dovish stance due to the downside risk to Australia’s economy from the US tariffs. Australia is a small open economy meaning it is heavily reliant on international trade." "Cash rate futures have fully priced-in a 25bps cut at the next May 20 RBA meeting and 40% odds of an additional 25bps cut."
13:34 USD/CNH: Set to weaken to 7.2430 before stabilisation can be expected – UOB Group
Scope for US Dollar (USD) to weaken to 7.2430 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH) before stabilisation can be expected; it is unclear if 7.2150 will come into view.
Scope for US Dollar (USD) to weaken to 7.2430 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH) before stabilisation can be expected; it is unclear if 7.2150 will come into view. In the longer run, USD could continue to rise; it is unclear whether it can break above 7.3800, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD can continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "USD soared and closed higher by 0.76% at 7.3471 yesterday. The strong surge appears to be overdone. However, provided that 7.3000 (minor support at 7.3200) is not breached, USD could rise further. That said, given the overbought conditions, any advance is unlikely to reach 7.3800." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "USD swung wildly between 7.3485 and 7.2394 late last week. Yesterday (07 Apr), USD closed at 7.3471 (+0.76%), its highest level since Nov 2023. The increase in momentum suggests USD could continue to rise, but after the wild swings, it is unclear whether USD can break above the significant resistance at 7.3800. To keep the momentum going, USD must hold above 7.2750."
13:30 USD/JPY gains on strengthening US Dollar – BBH
USD/JPY firmed up on USD strength, BBH FX analysts report.
USD/JPY firmed up on USD strength, BBH FX analysts report. Japan’s record current account surplus boosts JPY"Japan’s current account surplus widened to ¥2,317bn from ¥1947bn in January to total a record ¥29.1tn in the twelve months to February (4.7% of GDP). Japan’s balance of payments backdrop is JPY supportive especially during periods of heightened risk aversion."
13:25 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a range between 146.00 and 149.00 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 146.00 and 149.00 vs Japanese Yen (JPY).
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 146.00 and 149.00 vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, oversold weakness has not stabilized; there is a chance for USD to drop below 145.00 again before the risk of another rebound increases, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Oversold weakness has not stabilized24-HOUR VIEW: "USD traded on a soft note upon opening yesterday before rebounding to end the day higher by 0.64% at 147.84. The price action is likely part of a range-trading phase, probably between 146.00 and 149.00." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Friday (04 Apr, spot at 146.30), we indicated that 'despite being deeply oversold, it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise.' We also indicated that 'the 145.00 level is a significant support and USD must break and hold below this level before further decline is likely.' USD subsequently dropped to 144.54 and then rebounded. While the oversold weakness still has not stabilised, as USD did not close below 145.00, there has been no further increase in downward momentum. However, provided that 149.00 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached, there is a chance for USD to drop below 145.00 again before the risk of another rebound increases. At this time, the likelihood of USD breaking the significant mid-term support at 143.50 is not high."
13:22 PBOC signals weaker yuan as USD/CNH tests resistance – BBH
The Shanghai Composite Index recovered slightly today after diving by roughly 9% on Monday. China’s state fund manager, controlled by the Ministry of Finance, confirmed it had taken action to increase its holdings of stock market index funds and promised to buy more, BBH FX analysts report.
The Shanghai Composite Index recovered slightly today after diving by roughly 9% on Monday. China’s state fund manager, controlled by the Ministry of Finance, confirmed it had taken action to increase its holdings of stock market index funds and promised to buy more, BBH FX analysts report. USD/CNH faces a multi-year resistance level at 7.3800"Moreover, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) signaled greater tolerance for a weaker yuan. The PBOC set the USD/CNY fixing at 7.2038, the weakest since September 2023, which pushed USD/CNH higher to 7.3600. USD/CNH faces a multi-year resistance level at 7.3800.""While a weaker yuan would increase China’s external competitiveness, it would also further curtail the role consumption plays in the economy and worsen domestic imbalances. A currency depreciation is like a tax on consumption that lowers disposable household income and reduces spending. As such, a better way for China to achieve its long-overdue investment-to-consumer pivot is via a gradual revaluation of its currency.""This could be the basis for a grand bargain between the US and China. Devaluing USD versus CNY would hit two goals at once: help US President Donald Trump achieve his core goal to revitalize American manufacturing activity and help rebalance China’s economy away from investment towards consumption."
13:19 US recession odds rise as global trade conflict deepens
Expectations for the United States (US) economy to tip into recession this year gain traction following the introduction of aggressive tariffs by US President Donald Trump.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US' new tariff regime is forecast to weigh heavily on the growth outlook.Financial institutions see a stronger probability of a recession in the US.The Fed is expected to address the worsening outlook by cutting rates at the next meeting.Expectations for the United States (US) economy to tip into recession this year gain traction following the introduction of aggressive tariffs by US President Donald Trump.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that they don't have a probability forecast of a recession. "We don't make a probability forecast of how likely it is for there to be a recession, but many outside forecasters do and many of them have raised the likelihood, albeit from very low levels,” Powell explained.Is a US recession imminent?Goldman Sachs, who was predicting a 20% probability of a recession in the US before Trump's tariff announcements, raised this odd to 35% initially, before raising it again to 45% on Monday.Similarly, JPMorgan Chase lifted its odds for a US and a global recession to 60%. "Disruptive US policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year," the brokerage wrote in a note late last week. Meanwhile, CEO Jamie Dimon said on Monday that the US economy is facing considerable turbulence, with potential positive effects from tax reforms and harm from tariffs and trade wars. Morgan Stanley noted that although they are not forecasting a recession, they see the gap between a sluggish growth and a downturn has narrowed. Additionally, the financial services provider revised the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast down to 0.8% for the fourth quarter from 1.5% previously.Finally, S&P Global announced that they raised their subjective probability of a US recession to 30%-35 from 25% in March. Related news Breaking: Fed Chairman Powell says Trump tariffs risk higher inflation, slower growth “Reciprocal” tariffs are bad for world growth and worse for the US Embracing the global impact of Trump's trade policies
Markets expect the Fed to take a dovish turnAlongside heightened expectations for a downturn in the US economy, the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in May also increased. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 72% probability of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting, up from about 20% on April 1. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022.
Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency.
When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
13:16 EUR/USD struggles to extend recovery amid fears of potential Eurozone-US tariff war
EUR/USD trades higher in Tuesday’s European trading session but struggles to reclaim the psychological figure of 1.1000. The major currency pair tussles for more upside as the US Dollar Index (DXY) strives to extend its two-day recovery move above Monday’s high of 103.50.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD faces pressure while reclaiming 1.1000 as investors await the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers to discuss measures against Trump’s tariffs.Trump threatened to impose additional 50% tariffs on China for taking countermeasures against reciprocal levies announced last week.The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates in June.EUR/USD trades higher in Tuesday’s European trading session but struggles to reclaim the psychological figure of 1.1000. The major currency pair tussles for more upside as the US Dollar Index (DXY) strives to extend its two-day recovery move above Monday’s high of 103.50. Broadly, the US Dollar (USD) is under pressure in the aftermath of the reciprocal tariff announcement by United States (US) President Donald Trump last week. He swept new levies in addition to a 10% universal baseline on Wednesday in an attempt to fix trade imbalances and ‘make America great again.’Financial market participants expect that the new suite of Trump tariffs and likely countermeasures by US trading partners could lead to an economic recession. On Monday, Trump threatened to hike import duty on China by 50% if the country doesn’t withdraw its retaliatory response of 34% reciprocal tariffs on US goods already announced last Friday and coming into effect this Thursday.Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce warned that the US president’s new tariff threats were "a mistake on top of a mistake" and China will “fight to the end” to protect its interest.This has also led to traders raising bets supporting an interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the June policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are confident that the central bank will cut its key borrowing rates in June.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as the US Dollar faces pressureEUR/USD gains at the expense of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the outlook of the Euro (EUR) has become uncertain as investors become increasingly concerned that countermeasures by the European Union (EU) in the face of reciprocal tariffs by Donald Trump could lead to a trade war between regions situated on the opposite sides of the Atlantic.Finance ministers of all Euro area countries are scheduled to meet in Warsaw on Friday to discuss measures to contain the likely consequences of tariffs imposed by the US. Ahead of the meeting, Poland Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said, "Disrupted supply chains and rising costs for companies will affect European growth ratios and currencies." He added that such a scenario will have “adverse social consequences” and “increasing prices for consumers”, leaving citizens more vulnerable, Reuters report.On Monday, European Union trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič also stated that our continent has offered to the US “zero-for-zero tariffs” for “cars and all industrial goods". Investors considered the statement positive for the Euro as a cooperative deal would be prosperous for the Eurozone.Additionally, escalating European Central Bank (ECB) dovish bets have also put some pressure on the Euro. Some ECB officials, including Bank of Italy Governor Piero Cipollone, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Governor of Bank of Greece Yannis Stournaras, have all supported further policy easing. Stournaras said last week that US tariffs will not be an “obstacle to April rate cut” as the inflation path remains “unchanged”. He guided that US tariffs will “negatively impact” the Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate by “0.3%-0.4%” in the first year.During European trading hours, Stournaras said that the monetary policy needs to be less “restrictive in 2025”. However, he warned of the possibility that the inflation rise might “delay the normalisation of monetary policy”.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD tussles around 1.1000EUR/USD struggles to break above 1.1000 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair rebounded from the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Monday, which trades around 1.0883. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds the 60.00 level, suggesting that the bullish momentum is intact.Looking down, the March 31 high of 1.0850 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
13:15 S&P 500 faces crucial support at 4800pts after breakdown – Société Générale
S&P 500 has experienced a steep decline after breaking down from its multi-month range, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
S&P 500 has experienced a steep decline after breaking down from its multi-month range, Société Générale's FX analysts note. S&P 500 hits key support level as decline continues"It has reached the graphical level of 4800pts representing highs of 2021/2022/2023. This is a potential support. Daily MACD is at the lowest point after 2020 highlighting a stretched decline. A brief bounce can’t be ruled out; recent gap level at 5390pts is likely to be a short-term hurdle." "In the event that S&P fails to defend 4800pts, the down move could extend towards last year lows of 4680pts and 4600pts."
13:11 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a 0.5500/0.5600 range – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5500/0.5600 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise, but it remains to be seen if NZD can decline to the next support at 0.5450, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5500/0.5600 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise, but it remains to be seen if NZD can decline to the next support at 0.5450, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD can decline to the next support at 0.545024-HOUR VIEW: "While NZD continues to decline after the outsized drop last Friday, downward momentum seems to have slowed slightly. This, combined with oversold conditions, suggests NZD is more likely to trade in a 0.5500/0.5600 range today instead of declining further." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After NZD surged to a high of 0.5852, in our latest update from last Friday (04 Apr, spot at 0.5785), we pointed out that 'for further sustained rise, NZD must close above 0.5850.' However, NZD did not rise further. Instead, it plunged over the past couple of days. Although it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise, it remains to be seen how much more can NZD decline. The next support is at 0.5450. On the upside, a breach of the ‘strong resistance’ at 0.5690 would mean that NZD is unlikely to weaken further."
13:03 USD/CNH eyes breakout as 7.37 resistance looms – Société Générale
USD/CNH has rebounded after defending the 200-DMA at 7.22. Daily MACD has entered positive territory highlighting regain of upward momentum, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
USD/CNH has rebounded after defending the 200-DMA at 7.22. Daily MACD has entered positive territory highlighting regain of upward momentum, Société Générale's FX analysts note. USD/CNH approaches crucial 7.37 barrier"It is now approaching the upper limit of the range since 2022 at 7.37; this is a crucial resistance. If USD/CNH establishes beyond 7.37, a larger uptrend could take shape. Next projections could be located at 7.41 and 7.46/7.47. First support is at 7.3050, the 38.2% retracement from March."
13:00 United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 97.4, below expectations (101.3) in March
United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 97.4, below expectations (101.3) in March
12:55 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.5945/0.6110 – UOB Group
Instead of continuing to drop, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a range of 0.5945/0.6110 vs US Dollar (USD).
Instead of continuing to drop, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a range of 0.5945/0.6110 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further declines are not ruled out; given the deeply oversold conditions, it is unclear if AUD can reach the next support at 0.5870, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further declines are not ruled out24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the dramatic plunge last Friday, AUD continued to decline yesterday, albeit at a slower pace, closing lower by 0.94% at 0.5988. The sharp drop appears to be overdone. This, combined with early sign of slowing momentum indicates that instead of continuing to drop, AUD is more likely to trade in a range of 0.5945/0.6110 today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest update from last Friday, 05 Apr, when AUD was at 0.6330, we indicated that AUD 'must break and hold above the significant resistance at 0.6410 before further advances can be expected.' Not only did AUD not break above 0.6410, but it also staged a dramatic drop over the past two days. Although further declines are not ruled out, given the deeply oversold conditions, it is unclear if AUD can reach the next support at 0.5870. Overall, only a breach of 0.6185 would suggest that the current downward pressure has eased."
12:48 Gas prices hit 7-month low – ING
European natural gas prices haven’t escaped the broader risk-off move, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
European natural gas prices haven’t escaped the broader risk-off move, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Tariffs cloud global LNG outlook"Title Transfer Facility (TTF) is down almost 13% so far this month, trading at its lowest level since September. While investment funds reduced their net long in TTF by a sizeable amount between February and March, there’s still room for further fund liquidation." "Yet while funds have been exiting the market, fundamentals are still supportive. The EU, for example, faces the tough task of hitting its 90% storage target ahead of next winter. Clearly, tariffs provide some downside risk not just to European gas demand, but also to Asian LNG demand. This risk is fairly difficult to quantify at the moment."
12:47 Gold bounces back above $3,000 as trade war tensions flair up
Gold price (XAU/USD) is bouncing higher in tandem with Equities after another stellar nosedive move on Monday. The precious metal trades just above the $3,000 mark at the time of writing on Tuesday.
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Markets still favor Bullion as the safer bet for any stagflation or recession scenario.Gold bounces off from $2,955 and pops back above $3,010, gaining nearly 1% intraday. Gold price (XAU/USD) is bouncing higher in tandem with Equities after another stellar nosedive move on Monday. The precious metal trades just above the $3,000 mark at the time of writing on Tuesday. The bounce is supported by a technical element on the one hand and a geopolitical driver on the other. That last one is the tit-for-tat war between China and the United States (US) spiraling out of control. US President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, traders are sending the US yield curve all over the place. At a given point on Monday, investors were betting on five interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, quite a change compared to the one-or-none stance from just a week ago.Daily digest market movers: Alerts flashingWest Australia’s Gold Road Resources says a scoping study on its flagship asset suggests there is more Gold than first thought, a clear indication that a $3.3 billion takeover bid from its joint venture partner undervalues the company, Financial Review reports. On Tuesday, Gold Road Resources released new data that showed the open-pit mine could hold more ounces underground that can be tapped profitably.The CME FedWatch tool shows chances for an interest rate cut by the Fed in May’s meeting standing at 31.7%, falling back from nearly 50% on Monday. For June, the chances of a rate cut are 96.9%, with a slim 3.1% chance for no rate cut at all.In his latest move, Trump threatened to slap an additional 50% levy on Chinese imports, while Beijing responded by saying it’s prepared to “fight to the end.” Shares in Europe rebounded from the worst three-day loss in five years, while US equity-index futures pointed to gains on Wall Street after Monday’s dizzying swings. Treasuries advanced after Monday’s sharp selloff. Oil gained while Gold climbed for the first time in four days. The US Dollar slipped against major peers, Bloomberg reports. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Not an easy recoveryGold, known as a safe haven asset, is unable to withstand selling pressure when market turmoil spreads to all asset classes, as seen in the past few days. That is something to keep in mind, meaning that the precious metal will not recover back to the all-time high at $3,167 in a straight line, as trade war tensions are set to take place from here on out. Looking up, resistances are a bit spread out, with the first cap at $3,040 as the R1 resistance, followed by $3,057, a pivotal level since March 20. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,097 precedes the current all-time high at $3,167.On the downside, the pivotal level of the March 14 high at $3,004 roughly coincides with the $3,000 round number and is trying to provide support as writing. If this area does not hold as support, bears can target $2,955, where clearly many buyers were interested in scooping up Gold on Monday. Further down, the S2 support at $2,899 is the last line of defence, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) coming in already in advance at $2,930.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
12:46 ECB’s Stournaras: Monetary policy is to be less restrictive in 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned on Tuesday, “monetary policy is to be less restrictive in 2025.”
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned on Tuesday, “monetary policy is to be less restrictive in 2025.”“But it is possible that inflation rise might delay normalisation of monetary policy,” he added.Market reactionEUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.0926, up 0.15% on the day.
12:42 USD: Wild moves continue – ING
Markets remain on edge as trade tensions, erratic headlines, and shifting currency dynamics drive sharp moves across asset classes. While some signs of optimism emerge, risks to the US dollar and commodity-linked currencies persist, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Markets remain on edge as trade tensions, erratic headlines, and shifting currency dynamics drive sharp moves across asset classes. While some signs of optimism emerge, risks to the US dollar and commodity-linked currencies persist, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.USD safe haven role faces a stress test"Equity volatility has remained very high and was joined by a selloff in bonds yesterday. After a very weak open, US equities spiked into positive territory on the back of an unconfirmed headline suggesting a 90-day pause in tariffs. Trump quickly labelled it as “fake news” and actually threatened an additional 50% tariff on China if Beijing doesn’t lift retaliatory duties. The S&P closed only marginally lower after a rollercoaster ride.""Newfound tentative optimism has led to a material rebound overnight in the battered commodity currencies. Interestingly, AUD and NZD are the best performers in G10 this morning despite the threat of additional tariffs on China. The reason may lie behind the People Bank of China's decision to fix USD/CNY above 7.20: a bearish signal for the yuan that can take some pressure off the proxies. We discuss the CNY situation in detail below.""We are seeing the dollar re-establishing its role as a safe haven. Incidentally, it appears that yesterday’s spike in Treasury yields was still largely beneficial to the greenback. One key downside risk for the dollar is if Treasuries accelerate their selloff in an environment where equities remain pressured. If that happens independently from other safe-haven sovereign bonds, that could be an early sign of the 'sell America' scenario that can take the dollar substantially lower."
12:35 Confidence tumbles and US Dollar falls under pressure – Commerzbank
Business and consumer sentiment in the US is collapsing, and hard data may soon follow. With tariffs acting as an exogenous shock, investors are preparing for recession — not inflation — and abandoning the US Dollar, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
Business and consumer sentiment in the US is collapsing, and hard data may soon follow. With tariffs acting as an exogenous shock, investors are preparing for recession — not inflation — and abandoning the US Dollar, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. USD loses its safe haven shine"The mood is not only affecting sentiment, but will presumably soon also affect hard data. If you look at how quickly the mood among companies in the US (ISM Index) and among consumers deteriorated even before the big announcement last Wednesday, you don't need to be an expert to predict that things will continue to go downhill after 'Liberation Day.' Because for now, both for companies and for consumers, uncertainty remains high, prices are likely to rise, incomes are likely to fall and the stock market, as the last pillar of income, seems to be breaking away as well, given the see of red on the (global) stock markets in recent days – the US stock markets have lost more than 10% of their value since Liberation Day.""After all, not everything is as simple as Trump might think. In my view, by drastically increasing tariffs, he is creating an 'artificial' exogenous shock to world trade and thus to the world economy. The only problem is that the US is part of this world economy. And as long as the US consumes more than it produces, it is difficult to completely isolate or fence itself off. Especially not overnight. In this respect, Trump is biting the hand he is currently riding on.""This is why the market is now pricing in around 100 bp of interest rate cuts for the Fed. In other words, the market is evidently weighing the economic risks (i.e. the US sliding into a recession) higher than the inflation risks resulting from higher tariffs on imports to the US. This is one of the reasons why the US dollar has come under so much downward pressure since Liberation Day."
12:34 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $30.14 per troy ounce, up 0.16% from the $30.09 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 4.32% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 30.14 1 Gram 0.97
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 99.55 on Tuesday, up from 99.14 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 99.55 on Tuesday, up from 99.14 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:26 ECB's Šimkus: 25 bps rate cut needed in April
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Tuesday that a“25 basis points (bps) rate cut is needed in April.”
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Tuesday that a“25 basis points (bps) rate cut is needed in April.”Further commentsUS tariff announcement warrants more accomodative monetary policy.We need to move to a less restrictive policy stance.Worsening of trade tensions can be deflationary in the medium term.Policy is currently still more restrictive rather than neutral.Even with another cut, will still only be at the upper bound of neutral interval.US tariffs announcement much more disappointing that anticipated.Undershooting risk already up before April 2, must carefully monitor.In the medium term, undershooting or being at target is more probable than overshooting.In June, let's see what has changed since April, then decide whether to cut again.I see no need to talk about 50 bps. That would be too much. We are not behind the curve.
12:06 Oil: Tariff tensions build – ING
Oil prices witnessed something of a relief rally this morning. Yet risks are still skewed to the downside as President Trump threatens an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if it doesn’t lift its 34% retaliatory tariff today. It's unlikely that China will reverse the policy.
Oil prices witnessed something of a relief rally this morning. Yet risks are still skewed to the downside as President Trump threatens an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if it doesn’t lift its 34% retaliatory tariff today. It's unlikely that China will reverse the policy. As such, markets are likely to see further escalation, which will only exacerbate growth concerns and worries over oil demand, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.OPEC+ can pause or even reverse supply increases"As we mentioned following the move by OPEC+ to increase supply, we expect a strengthening in the Brent-Dubai spread, something we’ve seen in recent days. A combination of stronger OPEC+ supply and tariff impacts (with a number of Asian countries receiving higher-than-feared reciprocal tariffs), should cause the spread to strengthen further.""The broader move lower we’ve seen in crude oil since 2 April suggests the market is pricing in bigger odds of a recession. The scale of the sell-off will worry OPEC+, which last week surprised the market with a larger-than-expected supply hike for May. If downward pressure continues, the OPEC+ move could be very short-lived. We could see OPEC+ pause or even reverse supply increases. The Saudis need around US$90/bbl to balance their budget. While their supply increase last week suggests they’re not aiming for this level, the Saudis probably don’t want to see an even wider gap between their fiscal breakeven level and current prices.""Slowing in US drilling activity could offer some soft support for the market. We expect current WTI prices to lead to a pullback in drilling. This will eventually feed through to slower supply growth and potentially even a decline in US oil output. High decline rates for US shale mean consistent drilling is needed to keep US output stable. According to the latest Dallas Federal Reserve Energy survey, producers need an average of $65/bbl to profitably drill a new well."
12:04 GBP/USD: Set to edge lower to 1.2675 before stabilising – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could edge lower to 1.2675 before stabilisation is likely vs US Dollar (USD); any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.2580.
Pound Sterling (GBP) could edge lower to 1.2675 before stabilisation is likely vs US Dollar (USD); any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.2580. In the longer run, GBP could decline further; it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.GBP could decline further24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP dropped sharply for the second day in a row yesterday, closing lower by 1.41% at 1.2724. The sharp decline over the past couple of days is deeply oversold. However, GBP could edge lower to 1.2675 before stabilisation is likely. Any further decline is unlikely to reach the next major support at 1.2580. Resistance is at 1.2820; a breach of 1.2870 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After rising to 1.3207 last Thursday, GBP staged a dramatic decline, plunging by 2.87% over the past two days, marking its biggest 2-day drop since Sep 2022. While the swift and sharp decline appears excessive, there is no sign of stabilisation just yet. From here, as long as GBP holds below 1.3000, GBP could decline further. However, it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580."
12:01 NZD/USD sticks to gains near 0.5600 on weaker USD; bulls seem cautious amid tariff worries
The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction on Tuesday and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session.
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The momentum lifts spot prices back above the 0.5600 mark and is sponsored by the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for bullish traders. Investors now seem convinced that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the markets are currently pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs at least four times by the end of this year. This, along with a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment, fails to assist the safe-haven USD to capitalize on its recent recovery move from a multi-month low and benefits the perceived riskier New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Apart from this, reports that China is considering frontloading stimulus to mitigate the effects of US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs underpins antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak to its lowest level since March 2020, around the 0.5500 psychological mark touched on Monday. Furthermore, spot prices stall the recent sharp pullback from the 0.5850 area, or the year-to-date set last Thursday, though escalating the US-China trade war might cap gains.Trump unveiled reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods last Wednesday, with China facing 54% levies under this new regime. Trump upped the ante further and threatened an additional 50% tariff on China if it doesn't withdraw a retaliatory 34% import fee on American products announced on Friday. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has bottomed out and positioning for any further near-term appreciating move in the absence of any relevant US macro releases.Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), due on Thursday and Friday, respectively, will be looked for cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the NZD/USD pair. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
12:00 CNY: Controlled depreciation – ING
USD/CNY edged a little higher today to around 7.33 as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) set its daily fixing above 7.20 for the first time since 2023.
USD/CNY edged a little higher today to around 7.33 as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) set its daily fixing above 7.20 for the first time since 2023. Despite another round of tariff threats from Trump, the mood in markets was relatively stable today, showing that further tariff threats at this point will have heavily diminishing returns, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.CNY to fluctuate in a 7.00-7.40 band this year"The developments from the past week illustrate very clearly why we have been arguing for the past half year that intentional CNY depreciation to offset tariffs was a heavily flawed argument. If China was truly planning to rely on devaluation to help offset tariffs, CNY would’ve needed a massive devaluation to do so, and such a move could easily be countered by further tariff hikes from Trump." "Furthermore, the damage of yuan devaluation to domestic purchasing power, market sentiment, and China's RMB internationalisation plans would far outweigh the benefit to trade. The benefits of a stronger CNY are further magnified as tariffs could accelerate the trend of Chinese companies expanding outward investment.""Near-term risks remain. Further external shocks, capital outflow, and PBoC easing could add to depreciation pressure. However, the PBoC will likely keep the upside of USD/CNY capped, and in the medium term, a rising probability for faster Fed cuts this year, combined with likely aggressive policy support in China, could narrow US-China yield spreads and favour a CNY recovery. We’re holding our CNY fluctuation band at 7.00-7.40 for this year."
11:57 Spain 6-Month Letras Auction declined to 2.115% from previous 2.255%
Spain 6-Month Letras Auction declined to 2.115% from previous 2.255%
11:57 Spain 12-Month Letras Auction down to 2.007% from previous 2.173%
Spain 12-Month Letras Auction down to 2.007% from previous 2.173%
11:38 Gold slides below $3,000 – ING
Gold fell further on Monday, with prices sliding below $3,000/oz.
Gold fell further on Monday, with prices sliding below $3,000/oz. Central banks to continue buying Gold"Gold is traditionally a safe haven, but sometimes investors sell it along with other asset classes to cover losses elsewhere. We think Gold’s selloff will be short-lived as trade and tariff uncertainty continue to bolster its safe-haven appeal.""China’s central bank added Gold to its reserves for a fifth straight month in March, despite record-high prices. Gold reached a new record high above $3,100/oz last month, ending the first quarter 19% higher. Gold held by the People’s Bank of China rose by 0.09 million troy ounces last month." "We believe central banks will continue to buy Gold as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty push them to increase allocations toward safe-haven assets. This should provide a further tailwind to Gold prices looking ahead."
11:36 India Gold price today: Gold rebounds as US-China trade war revives haven demand
Gold prices in India witnesses a turnaround Tuesday as the US-China trade war escalates and revives the safe-haven demand for the bullion.
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Gold prices in India witnesses a turnaround Tuesday as the US-China trade war escalates and revives the safe-haven demand for the bullion.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry warned on Tuesday that it “firmly opposes and will take countermeasures if the US enacts additional 50% tariffs.”
US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose a new 50% tariff, which will be cumulative alongside the US's 10% across-the-board tariffs and targeted 34% "reciprocal" tariffs, which are set to take effect on Wednesday, April 9.
Gold price stood at 8,318.25 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, advancing from the INR 8,251.11 it cost on Monday, according to the FXStreet data.
Gold price rose to INR 97,023.63 per tola from INR 96,239.36 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,318.25 10 Grams 83,183.53 Tola 97,023.63 Troy Ounce 258,727.30
Global Market Movers: Gold price retains positive bias amid fears of a global recession Investors remain worried that US President Donald Trump’s latest trade tariffs would trigger an all-out global trade war and negatively impact the world economy. This, along with the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling, helps revive demand for the safe-haven precious metal during the Asian session on Tuesday. Market participants now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid worries about the potential economic fallout from Trump's aggressive trade policies. Moreover, Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates as soon as possible, arguing that the US economy was in a strong position. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Monday that the US central bank's focus should be on keeping inflation in check and noted that short-term inflation expectations have risen but remain well-anchored in the longer term. She further added that Fed policymakers are still committed to the 2% inflation target. Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that a global trade war eruption may lead to a consumer behavior shift. If tariffs are as large as announced, with counter-tariffs, they could lead to supply disruptions, and high inflation, Goolsbee added further, though it does little to dent Fed rate cut expectations. In fact, the current market pricing indicated the possibility that the US central bank could again lower borrowing costs at the June policy meeting and deliver at least four rate cuts by the year-end. This fails to assist the USD in building on its recovery gains registered over the past two days and benefits the non-yielding Gold price. Traders will closely monitor minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index on Thursday and the Producer Price Index on Friday should provide cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will influence the USD and the XAU/USD pair. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:35 EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.0860 and 1.1030 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.0860 and 1.1030. In the longer run, decrease in momentum indicates the chance for EUR to rise has diminished; a breach of 1.0850 would suggest EUR has entered a range-trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.0860 and 1.1030. In the longer run, decrease in momentum indicates the chance for EUR to rise has diminished; a breach of 1.0850 would suggest EUR has entered a range-trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Chance for EUR to rise has diminished24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR traded choppily yesterday before closing at 1.0904, down by 0.47%. The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.0860 and 1.1030." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent update was from last Friday (04 Apr, spot at 1.1040), wherein we highlighted that 'while the upside risk is intact, it remains to be seen if EUR can break the significant weekly resistance zone of 1.1215/1.1230.' We added, 'the upside risk will stay intact as long as 1.0850 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached. Yesterday, EUR fell to a low of 1.0881. The decrease in upward momentum indicates the chance for EUR to rise to 1.1215/1.1230 has diminished. However, only a breach of 1.0850 would indicate that EUR has entered a range trading phase."
11:26 EUR: Stable short-term fair value around 1.090 – ING
EUR/USD is trading just below 1.10 after having oscillated in a wide band (1.088-1.104) since the weekend.
EUR/USD is trading just below 1.10 after having oscillated in a wide band (1.088-1.104) since the weekend. It’s worth noting that the near-term fair value for EUR/USD has remained quite stable just below 1.090 over the past week, and the pair was in stretched overvaluation territory when it spiked to 1.110, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.ECB looks increasingly likely to cut next week"Remember that short-term fair value is highly reliant on the two-year swap rate differential, which is currently around 145bp. As the ECB looks increasingly likely to cut next week while the Fed still hasn’t given any signal to justify the four cuts priced by 2025, there is probably a slightly downside-tilted risk for EUR/USD purely from the rate angle.""The euro’s high liquidity character continues to shield it from the much bigger volatility that has affected the likes of NOK, SEK and GBP in the past few sessions. The European Union still claims it is ready to discuss tariff-free options with the US, but that will likely take time. In the meantime, the EU is going ahead with a relatively measured retaliation to US tariffs.""It has been reported that 25% tariffs can hit a wide range of US products, but would still fall well short of the $ amount targeted by the US. If we don’t see a turn to a more aggressive response by the EU, the euro could also benefit, especially in the crosses with EM and G10 high beta currencies."
11:04 Pound Sterling recovers against USD as US recession fears boost Fed dovish bets
The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back to near 1.2800 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session from over a month’s low of 1.2708 posted on Monday. The GBP/USD pair recovers as the US Dollar resumes its downside move after a short-lived recovery in the last two trading days.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling rebounds to near 1.2800 against the US Dollar as traders have raised Fed dovish bets for the June meeting.The US-China trade war could lead the UK economy into a downturn.Fed Goolsbee stated that there is no generic answer to what the central bank should do to contain stagflation.The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back to near 1.2800 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session from over a month’s low of 1.2708 posted on Monday. The GBP/USD pair recovers as the US Dollar resumes its downside move after a short-lived recovery in the last two trading days. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, tumbles to near 102.90.The Greenback remains on the backfoot as traders have become increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could reduce interest rates earlier this year to offset fears of potential United States (US) economic recession. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are almost certain that the central bank will resume its monetary policy easing cycle in the June policy meeting, which it paused in January.The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump and fears of countermeasures by China and the Eurozone have stemmed the risks of a recession in the US. Investment banking firm Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of the US entering a recession to 45% from 35%, as anticipated last week.The commentary from Fed officials has indicated that they are clueless about how protectionist policies by the President will shape the economic and the monetary policy outlook. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with CNN on Monday, "The anxiety is if these tariffs are as big as what are threatened on the US side, and if there’s massive retaliation, and then if there’s counter-retaliation again, it might send us back to the kind of conditions that we saw in 2021-22 when inflation was raging out of control," Reuters report.Goolsbee added that our job is to look at the “hard data”, and if we have something that is called “stagflation,” then there is no “generic answer” to what the Fed should do “in response to that".Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling weakens against its risky peersThe Pound Sterling underperforms its risky peers on Tuesday as financial market participants expect Donald Trump’s tariffs-led fears of global economic slowdown could send the United Kingdom (UK) economy into a downturn. Market experts believe the trade war will be majorly between the US and China as the latter has announced retaliatory measures despite Trump’s warning his trading partners not to retaliate after imposing reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Though the Eurozone is also planning countermeasures in the face of a new suite of tariffs by Donald Trump, the region is still expected to negotiate humbly.A massive trade war between the US and China would result in the dumping of products by Chinese firms to other markets. Given the competitiveness of Chinese firms in manufacturing goods at cheaper rates compared to other nations, UK businesses would be incapable of competing against them in a pricing war. Such a scenario would lead to a sharp decline in UK business activity, which will be unfavorable for the Pound Sterling.With UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer already sensing the pricing war has vowed to protect domestic firms from the storm of Trump tariffs. "We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm," Starmer said over the weekend. Escalating fears of UK economic risks could also force Bank of England (BoE) officials to adopt an aggressive monetary policy easing approach this year. The BoE has cut interest rates in one of two policy meetings in 2025 and is expected to deliver two more this year.This week, the British currency will be influenced by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March and the monthly UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for February, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling bounces back to near 1.2800The Pound Sterling recovers around 1.2800 against the US Dollar on Tuesday after facing intense selling pressure in the last two trading days. The GBP/USD pair trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.2887, suggesting that the near-term trend is bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum could be triggered if the RSI fails to hold the 40.00 level.Looking down, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement plotted from late September high to mid-January low, near 1.2600, will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the psychological figure of 1.3000 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:59 Forex Today: Tariff talks under scrutiny following volatile opening to week
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 8:
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Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 8:In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, market participants continue to assess the latest developments surrounding the global trade conflict that was triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariffs. The NFIB Business Optimism Index for March will be the only noteworthy data release featured in the US economic calendar on Tuesday. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.33% -0.28% -0.43% -0.51% -1.25% -1.24% -0.24% EUR 0.33% 0.01% -0.11% -0.19% -0.90% -0.86% 0.09% GBP 0.28% -0.01% -0.15% -0.17% -0.93% -0.88% 0.14% JPY 0.43% 0.11% 0.15% -0.08% -0.80% -0.83% 0.24% CAD 0.51% 0.19% 0.17% 0.08% -0.75% -0.71% 0.33% AUD 1.25% 0.90% 0.93% 0.80% 0.75% 0.04% 1.08% NZD 1.24% 0.86% 0.88% 0.83% 0.71% -0.04% 1.03% CHF 0.24% -0.09% -0.14% -0.24% -0.33% -1.08% -1.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Markets turned risk-averse at the beginning of the week as Trump and other US officials reiterated their willingness to keep tariffs in place. In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that Trump is doubling down on something he knows works and added that Trump will listen to trading partners if they offer "really great deals." Later in the day, several news outlets, including Reuters, reported that Hassett told CNBC that Trump is considering a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China. The positive impact of this headline on the risk mood remained short-lived, however, as the White House came out with a statement, calling the CNBC reporting "fake news."In the meantime, Trump took to social media to threaten an additional 50% tariffs on China, after China issued retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US goods on Friday. In response, "if the US insists on a trade war, China will fight until the end," China's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.Despite this back and forth between China and the US, US stock index futures trade decisively higher in the European morning on Tuesday, pointing to an improving risk mood, while the US Dollar (USD) Index stays in negative territory at around 103.00.After closing the day virtually unchanged on Monday, EUR/USD clings to daily gains at around 1.0950 in the early European session. European Union trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Monday that they have offered zero-for-zero tariffs to the US for cars and all industrial goods.GBP/USD lost more than 1% on Monday and touched its weakest level in a month near 1.2720. The pair corrects higher on Tuesday and trades slightly above 1.2750. NZD/USD lost more than 3% last Friday and continued to push lower on Monday. After dropping to its weakest level in about five years near 0.5500, the pair reversed its direction and was last seen trading at around 0.5600, where it was up 1.2% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce monetary policy decisions in the early trading hours of the Asian session on Wednesday.USD/JPY rose more than 0.5% on Monday but failed to preserve its bullish momentum. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.5% on the day at 147.10. Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday they will continue to push the US to review the tariff policies and noted that he is considering visiting the US at the appropriate time to have a direct talk with Trump.Gold extended its slide on Monday and lost more than 1.5% on the day. XAU/USD stages a rebound in the European morning on Tuesday and trades slightly above $3,000. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
10:30 Crude oil price today: WTI price mostly unchanged at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.85 per barrel, up from Monday’s close at $60.77. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $64.26 price posted on Monday, and trading at $64.28.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. Disclaimer: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices mentioned above are based on FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
10:04 USD/CHF remains under selling pressure near 0.8550 amid Trump tariff turmoil
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8550 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) as the fears of a global recession heighten following US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on trading partners.
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Heightening concerns about economic growth boost the Swiss Franc, a safe-haven currency. The Swiss Unemployment Rate rose to 2.8% in a seasonally adjusted in March from the previous reading of 2.7%. The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8550 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) as the fears of a global recession heighten following US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on trading partners.Trump stated last week that tariffs of at least 10% on all US imports, with targets of up to 50%, would help the US reclaim an industrial base that he said has withered over decades of trade liberalization. Market turmoil unleashed by US trade tariffs and the ongoing geopolitical tensions could boost the CHF, a safe-haven currency.Since Trump shocked world markets by announcing reciprocal tariffs for most of the global economy, more analysts have expected that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will again cut the interest rates. Markets are currently leaning towards another 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Swiss central bank, according to LSEG data.Data released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Tuesday showed that the Swiss Unemployment Rate stood at 2.8% in a seasonally adjusted March, up from the previous reading of 2.7%. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
10:01 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 94.45, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 93.66 Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 109.95 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also advancing after the GBP/INR pair settled at 109.42 at the previous close.
Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee?
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee?
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee?
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee?
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee. Rates for Indian Rupee crosses mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
09:46 France Exports, EUR down to €49.67B in February from previous €49.84B
France Exports, EUR down to €49.67B in February from previous €49.84B
09:46 France Imports, EUR rose from previous €56.38B to €57.54B in February
France Imports, EUR rose from previous €56.38B to €57.54B in February
09:45 France Trade Balance EUR below forecasts (€-5.4B) in February: Actual (€-7.87B)
France Trade Balance EUR below forecasts (€-5.4B) in February: Actual (€-7.87B)
09:45 France Current Account increased to €-1.9B in February from previous €-2.2B
France Current Account increased to €-1.9B in February from previous €-2.2B
09:45 France Imports, EUR increased to €57.5B in February from previous €56.38B
France Imports, EUR increased to €57.5B in February from previous €56.38B
09:45 France Exports, EUR down to €49.7B in February from previous €49.84B
France Exports, EUR down to €49.7B in February from previous €49.84B
09:38 China‘s Foreign Ministry: US actions do not show willingness for serious talks
China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that “US actions do not show willingness for serious talks.”
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China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that “US actions do not show willingness for serious talks.”Additional quotes"If US wants to talk, it should show attitude for equality and respect.""If US insists on a trade war, China will fight until the end.""China will take necessary measures against latest tariffs threat." Related news China’s Commerce Ministry: Will never accept the “blackmail nature” of the US AUD/JPY recovers to near 89.50 as global sentiment improves “Reciprocal” tariffs are bad for world growth and worse for the US Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
08:59 AUD/JPY recovers to near 89.50 as global sentiment improves
The AUD/JPY cross jumps to 89.40, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early European session on Tuesday. The improving global risk sentiment and encouraging stimulus plans from China provide some support to the Aussie.
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PBoC promised funding for sovereign funds to stablise markets hurt by US tariffs. The economic uncertainty and risk-off mood could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the JPY. The AUD/JPY cross jumps to 89.40, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early European session on Tuesday. The improving global risk sentiment and encouraging stimulus plans from China provide some support to the Aussie. Traders await the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda speech later on Wednesday for fresh impetus. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said early Tuesday that it will provide support to a sovereign fund when needed as it firmly supports its decision to buy more stocks. In a statement, China's central bank said that it will step up funding aid via a re-lending program to Central Huijin Investment Ltd. when it’s necessary, as needed, to ensure capital market stability. Fresh China’s stimulus plans could underpin the China-proxy Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia. Nonetheless, persistent trade-related uncertainty could boost demand for safe-haven currency like the Japanese Yen (JPY) and create a headwind for AUD/JPY. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said late Sunday that Japan would continue pressing the United States to lower tariffs on Japanese goods but acknowledged that progress was unlikely to come overnight. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he would lead the talks, underlining the importance of the US-Japan alliance and stating that the discussions will include tariffs, non-tariff barriers, currency policies, and government subsidies. Despite signaling a willingness to negotiate, Trump dismissed reports that he was considering a delay to new reciprocal tariffs and warned that levies could remain in place indefinitely. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:41 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) rose from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in March
Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) rose from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in March
08:05 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD keeps the bearish vibe, key support level emerges near $30.00
The Silver price (XAG/USD) posts modest gains around $30.15 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday.
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The first support level to watch is $30.00; the first upside barrier is seen at $30.85.The Silver price (XAG/USD) posts modest gains around $30.15 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The upside for the white metal might be limited due to investors liquidating positions to secure profits, possibly covering losses or margin calls on falling asset valuations, fueled by concerns about a global trade war. Nonetheless, the weaker Greenback might help limit the USD-denominated commodity price’s losses. According to the daily chart, the bearish sentiment of the Silver remains in play as the price remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 32.70, supporting the sellers in the near term.The first downside target for the XAG/USD emerges at the $30.00 psychological level. Further south, the next contention level is seen at $28.80, the low of December 20, 2024. The additional downside filter to watch is $28.31, the low of April 7. On the bright side, the immediate resistance level is located at $30.85, the high of January 21. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to $31.77, the 100-day EMA. A decisive break above the mentioned level could see a rally to $33.20, the high of February 20. Silver price (XAG/USD) daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
07:55 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand while above 1.0900, 200-period EMA on H4
The EUR/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day losing streak and stalling the recent pullback from its highest level since September touched last week.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD attracts fresh buyers and snaps a two-day losing streak amid a broadly weaker USD. The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for additional near-term gains. A convincing break below the 200-hour EMA is needed to negate the constructive outlook. The EUR/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day losing streak and stalling the recent pullback from its highest level since September touched last week. The uptick lifts spot prices to the 1.0975 area, or a fresh daily high in the last hour, and is sponsored by renewed US Dollar (USD) selling bias. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair showed some resilience near the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Monday and the subsequent move up favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on daily/hourly charts are holding in positive territory and suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained breakout through a short-term descending trend-line hurdle, around the 1.1000 psychological mark before positioning for further gains. The EUR/USD pair might then climb to the overnight swing high, around the 1.1050 area, en route to the 1.1100 mark and the 1.1145 area, or the year-to-date peak.On the flip side, the 1.0940 area could offer some support ahead of the 100-hour EMA, near the 1.0900 round figure. The said handle should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders, which if broken decisively could drag the EUR/USD pair to the 1.0845 intermediate support en route to the 1.0800 mark and the 1.0735-1.0730 region (March 27 low). The latter coincides with the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A convincing break below will suggest that the EUR/USD pair has topped out in the near term and pave the way for a deeper corrective slide. EUR/USD 1-hour chart US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.63% -0.45% -0.09% -0.59% -1.16% -1.22% -0.44% EUR 0.63% 0.14% 0.49% 0.02% -0.52% -0.55% 0.18% GBP 0.45% -0.14% 0.36% -0.09% -0.65% -0.69% 0.12% JPY 0.09% -0.49% -0.36% -0.49% -1.03% -1.13% -0.28% CAD 0.59% -0.02% 0.09% 0.49% -0.56% -0.60% 0.23% AUD 1.16% 0.52% 0.65% 1.03% 0.56% -0.03% 0.78% NZD 1.22% 0.55% 0.69% 1.13% 0.60% 0.03% 0.82% CHF 0.44% -0.18% -0.12% 0.28% -0.23% -0.78% -0.82% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
07:34 FX option expiries for Apr 8 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Apr 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.0815 984m1.0825 1.4b1.0850 1.5b1.1050 955mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 145.00 1.6b147.14 720m149.00 1bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6350 1.5bEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8400 887m0.8500 714m
07:31 Gold price moves away from multi-week low set on Monday; climbs to $3,000 mark
Gold price (XAU/USD) regains some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak from a nearly four-week low, around the $2,957-2,956 area touched the previous day.
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Gold price (XAU/USD) regains some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak from a nearly four-week low, around the $2,957-2,956 area touched the previous day. US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs announced last week sparked concerns about a global trade war, which could push the world economy into a recession. The uncertainty continues to underpin demand for safe-haven assets and assists the bullion in stalling a sharp retracement slide from the record high touched last Thursday. Meanwhile, traders continue to ramp up their bets for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025 amid worries over a tariff-driven US economic slowdown. This keeps a lid on the recent US Dollar (USD) recovery from a multi-month low and turns out to be another factor lending support to the non-yielding Gold price. That said, a slight improvement in the global risk sentiment could act as a headwind for the commodity. Traders might also opt to wait for FOMC meeting minutes and the US consumer inflation figures, due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price attracts some safe-haven flows amid renewed USD sellingInvestors remain worried that US President Donald Trump’s latest trade tariffs would trigger an all-out global trade war and negatively impact the world economy. This, along with the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling, helps revive demand for the safe-haven precious metal during the Asian session on Tuesday.Market participants now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid worries about the potential economic fallout from Trump's aggressive trade policies. Moreover, Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates as soon as possible, arguing that the US economy was in a strong position.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Monday that the US central bank's focus should be on keeping inflation in check and noted that short-term inflation expectations have risen but remain well-anchored in the longer term. She further added that Fed policymakers are still committed to the 2% inflation target.Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that a global trade war eruption may lead to a consumer behavior shift. If tariffs are as large as announced, with counter-tariffs, they could lead to supply disruptions, and high inflation, Goolsbee added further, though it does little to dent Fed rate cut expectations. In fact, the current market pricing indicated the possibility that the US central bank could again lower borrowing costs at the June policy meeting and deliver at least four rate cuts by the year-end. This fails to assist the USD in building on its recovery gains registered over the past two days and benefits the non-yielding Gold price. Traders will closely monitor minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index on Thursday and the Producer Price Index on Friday should provide cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will influence the USD and the XAU/USD pair. Gold price might confront a stiff barrier near $3,020 amid negative technical setup on the daily chart From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction. However, the overnight bullish resilience near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April rally and the subsequent move-up warrants caution for bearish traders. The mixed setup suggests that the Gold price might continue to find some support near Monday’s swing low, around the $2,957-2,956 area. This is closely followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the $2,948-2,947 region. A convincing break below the latter will set the stage for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from the all-time peak touched last Thursday. On the flip side, any further move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the $3,020 horizontal zone, above which the Gold price could climb to the $3,055-3,056 horizontal barrier. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the XAU/USD to aim towards reclaiming the $3,100 mark, with some intermediate hurdle near the $3,075-3.080 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in March
Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in March
07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume up to 2.1% in February from previous 1.2%
Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume up to 2.1% in February from previous 1.2%
07:12 Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) came in at 2.48%, below expectations (2.5%) in February
Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) came in at 2.48%, below expectations (2.5%) in February
07:05 Indonesia Inflation (MoM) came in at 1.65% below forecasts (1.79%) in February
Indonesia Inflation (MoM) came in at 1.65% below forecasts (1.79%) in February
06:12 NZD/USD attracts some buyers above 0.5550, RBNZ rate decision in focus
The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5580 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump's tariffs on trade partners have raised fears of the potential recession in the United States, weighing on the Greenback.
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Traders move to price in five Fed rate cuts by year-end.China’s central bank said it will provide lending support to sovereign funds to stabilize the market. The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5580 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump's tariffs on trade partners have raised fears of the potential recession in the United States, weighing on the Greenback. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision will take center stage on Wednesday. Traders are now pricing in five 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) by year-end as rising fears of a recession in the US are exacerbating the pricing in the past week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, derivatives markets now imply a 44% possibility that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on May 6-7, up from 14% a week ago. The rising expectation of more Fed rate reductions this year drags the US Dollar (USD) lower and acts as a tailwind for NZD/USD. On the other hand, China’s stimulus plans could underpin the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said early Tuesday that it will provide support to a sovereign fund when needed as it firmly supports its decision to buy more stocks. In a statement, China's central bank said that it will step up funding aid via a re-lending program to Central Huijin Investment Ltd. when it’s necessary, as needed, to ensure capital market stability.All eyes will be on the RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 bps to 3.5%. The move comes amid easing inflation, slowing economic growth, and emerging signs of labor market weakness. Nearly 90% of the economists from the Reuters poll expect another 25 bps cut in May. The median forecast indicated a further 25 bps reduction in the third quarter, which would bring the OCR to 3.00% by the end of September. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
05:55 WTI climbs back closer to mid-$61.00s; upside potential seems limited
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices attract some buyers on Tuesday following the previous day's US tariffs-led volatile price swings and currently trade just below mid-$61.00s, up over 1% for the day.
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Concerns that US tariffs could lead to a global recession and dent fuel demand might cap Oil prices.A surprise OPEC+ supply increase further warrants caution before placing aggressive bullish bets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices attract some buyers on Tuesday following the previous day's US tariffs-led volatile price swings and currently trade just below mid-$61.00s, up over 1% for the day. The US Dollar (USD) attracts fresh sellers and stalls a two-day-old recovery from a multi-month low amid bets that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, in turn, is seen benefiting USD-denominated commodities and lending some support to Crude Oil prices. Apart from this, the uptick could be attributed to a technical bounce, especially after the recent slump to the lowest since early 2021 touched on Monday. Any meaningful recovery, however, still seems elusive amid growing concerns that US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs would trigger an all-out global trade war and weaken fuel demand. Moreover, a surprise decision by eight OPEC+ members, to pull forward a planned production increase and return 411,000 bpd to the market in May sparked oversupply concerns. This might turn out to be another factor that should contribute to capping gains for Crude Oil prices. Moving ahead, the market focus now shifts to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This will be followed by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Apart from this, trade-related developments will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to Crude Oil prices. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
05:43 USD/INR extends the rally after Trump's latest tariffs threat
The Indian Rupee (INR) declines on Tuesday, erasing all its gains of 2025. Fears over global trade tensions escalated after China implemented retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The heightened uncertainty has triggered risk-off sentiment, leading to outflows from emerging markets, including India.
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Escalating global trade tensions weigh on the INR. Investors brace for the RBI interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee (INR) declines on Tuesday, erasing all its gains of 2025. Fears over global trade tensions escalated after China implemented retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The heightened uncertainty has triggered risk-off sentiment, leading to outflows from emerging markets, including India. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the Indian currency. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could tolerate a sharper depreciation of the INR if China lets the Chinese Yuan weaken to cushion the impact of US tariffs, multiple sources aware of the central bank's thinking said.On the other hand, a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) due to the concerns over the potential recession in the United States might help limit the local currency’s losses. The RBI interest rate decision will be in the spotlight later on Friday. The Indian central bank is expected to cut key interest rates by up to 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, with lower inflation supporting an accommodative monetary policy stance. The attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for March, which is due later on Thursday.Indian Rupee remains fragile amid Trump’s tariff fallout"Bond yields slipped further after the RBI surprised by announcing another OMO for April, signaling a strong preference for surplus liquidity to aid transmission. We look for a 25bp cut in the repo rate to 6% and a change in stance to accommodative at the April meeting, tapping into the wide real rate cushion," said Radhika Rao, executive director and senior economist at DBS Bank.The markets have priced in a nearly 65% chance of a Fed cut in May, and futures now point to about 100 basis points (bps) worth of rate reductions by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said late Monday that significant tariff retaliation could boost inflation, adding that a global trade war eruption may lead to a consumer behavior shift.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted that some of the recent rise in goods and market-services inflation may be "anticipatory" of the effect of the Trump administration's tariffs. Kugler further stated that the Fed's focus should be on keeping inflation in check, per Reuters. USD/INR bulls seek to extend upside correction above the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee remains weak on the day. According to the daily chart, the USD/INR pair is set to resume its uptrend, with the price crossing above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pair could resume its upside journey if the price decisively closes above this level. The first upside barrier for USD/INR emerges at 85.88, the 100-day EMA. Any follow-through buying above the mentioned level could see a rally to 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round mark.The initial support level for the pair is seen at 85.20, the low of April 3. Sustained bearish pressure below this level could keep pulling USD/INR down to the next target at 85.00 psychological level, followed by 84.84, the low of December 19. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:23 Japanese Yen trades with positive bias against USD; seems poised to appreciate further
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's sharp retracement from the vicinity of the multi-month peak.
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A softer USD further contributes to capping USD/JPY’s recovery from a multi-month low.The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's sharp retracement from the vicinity of the multi-month peak. Despite growing concerns that harsher US reciprocal tariffs could negatively impact Japan's economy, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to lend support to the JPY.Furthermore, concerns about the global economic disruptions caused by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs benefit the JPY's relative safe-haven status. Meanwhile, traders have been pricing in the possibility that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates aggressively. This marks a big divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations, which stalls a two-day-old US Dollar (USD) recovery from a multi-month low and further underpins the lower-yielding JPY.Japanese Yen attracts some safe-haven flows amid BoJ rate hike betsData released on Monday showed that Nominal Wages in Japan rose 3.1% year-on-year in February compared to the previous month's downwardly revised 1.8% increase. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted real wages contracted 1.2% in February, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and suggesting that high inflation is weighing on earnings.In fact, the consumer inflation rate the government uses to calculate real wages grew 4.3% year-on-year. This comes on top of positive spring wage negotiations – which resulted in an agreement of 5.47% growth on average and offered a positive signal for the domestic economy – and backs the case for further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan.Investors remain worried that US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs will disrupt the global trading system and hit economic activity across the world. Furthermore, Trump upped the ante in his trade war with China and threatened an additional 50% tariff on China if it doesn't withdraw a retaliatory 34% import fee on American products.This further fuels worries that steep trade barriers around the world's largest consumer market could lead to a recession, which, in turn, assists the safe-haven Japanese Yen to attract some dip-buyers. The US Dollar, on the other hand, stalls a two-day-old recovery move from a multi-month low amid bets for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the US central bank was well positioned to wait for greater clarity before making changes like rate reductions and added that Trump's tariffs could have a strong inflationary impact. Meanwhile, Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates as soon as possible, arguing that the US economy is in a strong position.Moreover, traders are now pricing in a greater possibility that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and deliver at least four rate cuts by the end of this year. This, in turn, would result in the further narrowing of the rate differential between the US and Japan, which suggests that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding JPY is to the upside. There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Tuesday, leaving the USD at the mercy of trade-related developments and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's scheduled speech. The focus, meanwhile, remains on the release of FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and US consumer inflation figures on Thursday. USD/JPY could resume its downtrend once 147.00 is broken decisively
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair's inability to find acceptance above the 148.00 mark and the subsequent slide warrant caution for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone, validating the near-term negative outlook for the currency pair. However, a sustained move beyond the Asian session high, around the 148.15 region, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift spot prices to the 148.70 intermediate hurdle en route to the 149.00 round figure. The next relevant barrier is pegged near the 149.35-149.40 region, which if cleared should pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the 150.00 psychological mark.On the flip side, the 147.00 mark could offer some support, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the slide back towards the 146.00 round figure before dropping to the 145.40 region. Some follow-through selling could make spot prices vulnerable and may weaken further below the 145.00 psychological mark and test the multi-month low, around the 144.55 region, touched on Monday. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the currency pair towards the 144.00 mark. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair's inability to find acceptance above the 148.00 mark and the subsequent slide warrant caution for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone, validating the near-term negative outlook for the currency pair. However, a sustained move beyond the Asian session high, around the 148.15 region, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift spot prices to the 148.70 intermediate hurdle en route to the 149.00 round figure. The next relevant barrier is pegged near the 149.35-149.40 region, which if cleared should pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the 150.00 psychological mark.On the flip side, the 147.00 mark could offer some support, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the slide back towards the 146.00 round figure before dropping to the 145.40 region. Some follow-through selling could make spot prices vulnerable and may weaken further below the 145.00 psychological mark and test the multi-month low, around the 144.55 region, touched on Monday. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the currency pair towards the 144.00 mark. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:42 China’s Commerce Ministry: Will never accept the “blackmail nature” of the US
The Chinese Commerce Ministry issued a statement on Tuesday in response to the latest US threat to escalate tariffs on China.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry issued a statement on Tuesday in response to the latest US threat to escalate tariffs on China.Key quotesThe US threatens to escalate tariffs on China, “which is a mistake on top of a mistake”.China will never accept the “blackmail nature” of the US.Urge the United States to immediately rectify its ‘wrong practices’, cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China.Firmly opposes and will take countermeasures if the US enacts additional 50% tariffs.If the US side is bent on having its own way, the Chinese side will follow it to the end.
04:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence down to -3 in March from previous -1
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence down to -3 in March from previous -1
04:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions: 4 (March)
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions: 4 (March)
04:16 PBOC says it will provide lending support to sovereign fund to stabilize market
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said early Tuesday that it will provide support to a sovereign fund when needed as it firmly supports its decision to buy more stocks, per Bloomberg.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said early Tuesday that it will provide support to a sovereign fund when needed as it firmly supports its decision to buy more stocks, per Bloomberg. In a statement, China's central bank said that it will step up funding aid via a re-lending program to Central Huijin Investment Ltd. when it’s necessary, as needed to ensure capital market stability.Additionally, China Chengtong Holdings Group and China Reform Holdings Corp (Guoxin) stated that they would increase investments in stocks and ETFs, echoing a similar move by sovereign fund Central Huijin earlier in the day.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.14% higher on the day to trade at 0.5995. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2038 vs. 7.1980 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.2038 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1980 and 7.3321 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.2038 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1980 and 7.3321 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:56 AUD/USD recovers above 0.6000 amid fears of US recession
The AUD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 0.6015 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Aussie amid concerns over a recession in the United States following US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on trading partners.
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The AUD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 0.6015 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Aussie amid concerns over a recession in the United States following US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on trading partners.Analysts believe that the uncertainties surrounding the new Trump tariff policy will likely increase inflation and make a US recession more likely. Traders are stepping up bets the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates aggressively this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the markets have priced in a nearly 65% chance of a Fed cut in May, and futures now point to about 100 basis points (bps) worth of rate reductions by December. On the Aussie front, the rising speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could deliver faster and deeper rate cuts than previously expected could undermine the Australian Dollar (AUD) in the near term. The RBA will meet in May, and a 25 bps rate cut is likely, with a jumbo 50 bps reduction a slight possibility.Meanwhile, China announced last Friday that it will impose 34% counter-tariffs on the US, taking effect Thursday, as part of a retaliatory reaction to Trump's tariffs. The escalating trade war between the two largest economies in the world would damage the Australian economy and weigh on the AUD, as China is its biggest trading partner.China announced last Friday that it will impose a 34% tax on all US imports, taking effect Thursday, as part of a retaliatory reaction to Trump's tariffs. This marks Beijing's toughest retaliation to the American leader's trade war. The concerns over trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies exert some selling pressure on the China proxy, as China is a major trading partner to Australia. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
02:57 EUR/USD continues to pare brief tariff gains
On Monday, EUR/USD dropped again, marking a second consecutive day of declines for Fiber and pushing bids down to the 1.0900 level. Following a short break, the US Dollar is back in control of risk-off flows, with weakening investor sentiment further strengthening the Greenback across the board.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:56 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥712.9B (February) vs ¥-2937.9B
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥712.9B (February) vs ¥-2937.9B
02:51 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Japan's non-tariff barriers are quite high
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late Wednesday said late Monday that he has not yet received a trade offer from Japan. Nonetheless, Bessent expects Japan to be prioritized in negotiations due to their early approach, per Fox Business Network.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late Wednesday said late Monday that he has not yet received a trade offer from Japan. Nonetheless, Bessent expects Japan to be prioritized in negotiations due to their early approach, per Fox Business Network. Bessent emphasized that Japan’s non-tariff trade barriers are considerably high. However, he expressed optimism about the upcoming discussions.Key quotes
Says he has not seen a trade offer from Japan.
Expects Japan to get priority in negotiations because they came forward early.
Japan's non-tariff barriers are quite high.
We are at maximum tariff levels.
It is my hope that through good negotiations, tariff levels will come down for countries that don't retaliate.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.02% lower on the day to trade at 147.80. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Says he has not seen a trade offer from Japan.
Expects Japan to get priority in negotiations because they came forward early.
Japan's non-tariff barriers are quite high.
We are at maximum tariff levels.
It is my hope that through good negotiations, tariff levels will come down for countries that don't retaliate.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.02% lower on the day to trade at 147.80. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
02:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥4060.7B, above forecasts (¥3800B) in February
Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥4060.7B, above forecasts (¥3800B) in February
02:37 Fed’s Goolsbee: Significant tariff retaliation could boost inflation
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said late Monday that significant tariff retaliation could boost inflation, adding that global trade war eruption may lead to a consumer behavior shift.
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Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said late Monday that significant tariff retaliation could boost inflation, adding that global trade war eruption may lead to a consumer behavior shift. Key quotesNearly unparalleled scenario where solid US economic data appears positive, but many uncertainties linger.
Fed policymakers hear anxiety.
Hard economic data is still quite good.
Anxiety, if tariffs are as large as announced, with counter-tariffs, could lead to supply disruptions, high inflation.
Significant tariff retaliation could boost inflation.
Global trade war eruption may lead to consumer behavior shift.
If this evolves into a worldwide era of trade, and refrain from imposing significant tariffs on one another, it won't have this adverse effect.
Federal job is to examine hard data. Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.06% on the day at 103.44. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Fed policymakers hear anxiety.
Hard economic data is still quite good.
Anxiety, if tariffs are as large as announced, with counter-tariffs, could lead to supply disruptions, high inflation.
Significant tariff retaliation could boost inflation.
Global trade war eruption may lead to consumer behavior shift.
If this evolves into a worldwide era of trade, and refrain from imposing significant tariffs on one another, it won't have this adverse effect.
Federal job is to examine hard data. Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.06% on the day at 103.44. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
02:37 GBP/USD extends backslide as safe haven trade resumes
GBP/USD sank again on Monday, extending Cable into a second straight trading day of declines and pushing bids back down to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just north of 1.2700.
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After a brief reprieve, The US Dollar has resumed dominating risk-off flows, with deflating investor sentiment bolstering the Greenback across the board.More tariffs? More tariffs.After a tense week that saw the US pivot fully into a protectionist trade stance (but without the industry infrastructure to back it up), widespread import tariffs are on the books, with the US charging a flat 10% import tax on all goods from all countries, as well as widely-varied “reciprocal” tariffs that were derived by dividing US imports by US exports. After imposing an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods, China clapped back with a retaliatory 34% tariff of its own on all goods bound from the US. Lacking any other means of problem-solving, the Trump administration has threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese goods, set to take effect on April 8.Forex Today: Trump’s tariffs remain in centre stage ahead of US CPIUS data once again comes front and center this week; US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are slated for Thursday, with US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index survey results are both set to publish on Friday. This will be the last blast of key US inflation and sentiment figures from the ‘pre-tariff’ phase of 2025, marking a key measurement metric for the remainder of the calendar year.According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, investors are piling back into bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates to head off a recession. Rate markets are pricing in nearly 200 bps in interest rate cuts through the remainder of 2025, despite the Fed’s ongoing middling policy speeches warning that trade uncertainty makes it harder, not easier, for the Fed to trim rates.GBP/USD price forecastGBP/USD has declined nearly 4% peak-to-trough from last week’s peak bids just above the 1.3200 handle. A sharp rebalancing of market flows has dragged Cable back into the 200-day EMA, forcing bids back into a midrange that has plagued the pair for over two years.Volatility is on the rise across the board, making technical levels difficult to identify. A rough resistance zone is priced in between 1.2900 and 1.3000, while the immediate technical floor is priced in from 1.2600.GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:24 US Chamber of Commerce considering a lawsuit to block new Trump global tariffs
The US Chamber of Commerce is considering bringing the tariff battle to court, and some of its largest members are urging it to do so.
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The US Chamber of Commerce is considering bringing the tariff battle to court, and some of its largest members are urging it to do so. The action could effectively provide cover for corporations who are concerned about the tariffs' impact on their business but fearful of incurring US President Donald Trump’s wrath by openly criticizing his trade policy, per Fortune. The Chamber might claim that Trump's invocation of emergency powers to impose the fresh tariffs is illegal. Last week, a nonprofit called the New Civil Liberties Alliance, adopted a similar approach, filed a lawsuit on behalf of a small company owner who imports products from China, claiming that Trump lacked the legal right to impose his February tariffs on China. Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.01% on the day at 103.49. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
02:05 USD/CAD softens below 1.4250 as investors ramp up bets on Fed rate cuts
The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.4240, snapping the two-day winning streak during the late American session on Monday.
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Investors are stepping up bets that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively this year. The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.4240, snapping the two-day winning streak during the late American session on Monday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) edged higher against the Greenback as Canada last week avoided new levies on its goods in a widening global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump.Last week, Trump announced sweeping new tariffs for dozens of countries, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US and higher targeted duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners. Canada and Mexico were notably spared in this round, except for auto exports and steel and aluminum which fall under separate tariff policies. This development provides some support to the Loonie against the US dollar (USD). "CAD is outperforming non-USD peers as Canada remains relatively shielded from the new round of tariffs," said Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities.Investors raise their bets of more interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year as Trump's tariffs raise US recession fears. The markets are now pricing in nearly 65% odds of a Fed cut in May and futures now point to about 100 basis points (bps) worth of rate reductions by December this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This, in turn, could drag the USD lower against its rivals in the near term. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:01 Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.52%, below expectations (0.58%) in March
Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.52%, below expectations (0.58%) in March
02:01 Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 5.09%, below expectations (5.15%) in March
Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 5.09%, below expectations (5.15%) in March
02:00 South Korea Current Account Balance climbed from previous 2.94B to 7.18B in February
South Korea Current Account Balance climbed from previous 2.94B to 7.18B in February
01:35 USD/CHF stabilizes near 0.8600 after volatility, tariffs and recession fears support USD
The USD/CHF begins Tuesday’s Asian session slightly lower, following a wild trading day on Monday, which saw swings within the 0.8450–0.8673 range, and ended virtually unchanged. At the time of writing, the major trades at 0.8588, down 0.02%.
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The USD/CHF begins Tuesday’s Asian session slightly lower, following a wild trading day on Monday, which saw swings within the 0.8450–0.8673 range, and ended virtually unchanged. At the time of writing, the major trades at 0.8588, down 0.02%.Pair trades near 0.8588 amid mixed sentiment, with investors eyeing US CPI for next directional catalystThe market mood is mixed, with one of the three US indices posting a green day, while the Volatility Index (VIX) finished at 46.98, its highest level since March 2020. Tariffs continued to be the main driver, sparking fears among investors as a global recession looms, following China’s retaliation, which imposed reciprocal tariffs of 34% on imports from the US.On Monday, Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on China’s products if they failed to lift levies on U.S. goods by April 8.Rumors of a 90-day pause on tariffs, except for China, revealed by White House economic adviser Hassett, were later denied by Washington, which called the comments “fake news,” thereby increasing demand for the Greenback.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six currencies that includes the CHF, rose 0.56% to 103.47.The US economic schedule remains empty, though traders are eyeing the release of March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. If headline and core figures surprise investors and rise above estimates and the previous month’s readings, this could hurt money markets' bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by almost 100 basis points, towards the year-end, according to Prime Market Terminal data. USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/CHF remains downwardly biased, even though the pair has shown signs of recovery. Following Monday’s trading, the pair is expected to consolidate within the 0.8450–0.8673 range, with neither buyers nor sellers in control.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, with the index remaining at oversold conditions. However, as the slope turns slightly upward, a chance of a rebound is possible.In that outcome, the USD/CHF first resistance would be the 0.8700 figure, followed by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8798. On the other hand, the downtrend is expected to resume, with the first floor level at 0.8550, followed by the 0.8500 mark. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
01:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) climbed from previous 16% to 19% in 1Q
New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) climbed from previous 16% to 19% in 1Q
00:50 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi dips toward 0.5550 as bearish momentum intensifies
The NZD/USD pair continued its slide on Monday ahead of the Asian session, with the Kiwi dipping toward the 0.5550 area.
NZD/USD fell toward the 0.5550 zone on Monday, extending its losing streak ahead of the Asian session.The pair is weighed by persistent bearish signals, despite some neutral momentum readings.Key resistance sits near the 0.5700 area, with all major moving averages reinforcing downside pressure.The NZD/USD pair continued its slide on Monday ahead of the Asian session, with the Kiwi dipping toward the 0.5550 area. The bearish tone dominated as the pair lost ground within the broader range between 0.5551 and 0.5798, extending a recent decline that aligns with the weakening technical landscape.Daily chart
From a technical standpoint, the setup leans decisively bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a sell signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands bearish at 38.01 while other momentum indicators, such as the Stochastic %K at 46.20 and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -191.51, flash neutral readings, but reflect oversold bias nearing breakdown thresholds.The bearish momentum is supported by moving averages. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.57348, 100-day at 0.57179, and 200-day at 0.59039 are all sloping downward, signaling sustained pressure. In addition, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and SMA, both near 0.5712, also cap the upside.
From a technical standpoint, the setup leans decisively bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a sell signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands bearish at 38.01 while other momentum indicators, such as the Stochastic %K at 46.20 and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -191.51, flash neutral readings, but reflect oversold bias nearing breakdown thresholds.The bearish momentum is supported by moving averages. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.57348, 100-day at 0.57179, and 200-day at 0.59039 are all sloping downward, signaling sustained pressure. In addition, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and SMA, both near 0.5712, also cap the upside.
00:02 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Aussie dips toward 88.50 as bearish momentum persists
The AUD/JPY pair extended its soft tone on Monday ahead of the Asian session, easing toward the 88.50 area. Despite a mild daily decline, the pair remains entrenched in a broader downtrend, trading well beneath its key moving averages.
AUD/JPY traded near the 88.50 zone on Monday, drifting lower with modest downside momentum.Technical indicators point to a broadly bearish structure, with price still well below key moving averages.Resistance looms at 89.57 and beyond, while bearish momentum is reinforced by negative MACD and momentum readings.
The AUD/JPY pair extended its soft tone on Monday ahead of the Asian session, easing toward the 88.50 area. Despite a mild daily decline, the pair remains entrenched in a broader downtrend, trading well beneath its key moving averages. While intraday volatility was contained, the technical backdrop reflects persistent bearish pressure.
Daily chart
Momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) issues a sell signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 25.57, suggesting neutrality but nearing oversold territory. Although the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -309.10 may imply potential buy conditions, the broader trend is clearly bearish.Moving averages reinforce this view. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 93.546, the 100-day at 96.303, and the 200-day at 98.266 all slope downward, signaling sustained selling pressure. The shorter-term 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA, both sitting above 92.00, also point lower, further capping upside attempts.Key resistance is located at 89.578, followed by 90.944 and the 10-day EMA near 92.169. To the downside, further support may develop closer to the lower boundary of the recent range near 86.13, should the selling extend. While oversold signals may trigger a pause, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
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