Forex News Timeline

15:42 Canada real GDP grows 2.2% in first quarter vs. 1.7% expected
Canada's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.5% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This reading matched the 0.5% expansion recorded in the last quarter of 2024.

15:31 United States Wholesale Inventories came in at 0% below forecasts (0.4%) in April
United States Wholesale Inventories came in at 0% below forecasts (0.4%) in April

15:31 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.1%) in April
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.1%) in April

15:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.1%, below expectations (2.2%) in April
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.1%, below expectations (2.2%) in April

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in March
Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in March

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.2%, above expectations (1.7%) in 1Q
Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.2%, above expectations (1.7%) in 1Q

15:30 United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-87.62B, above expectations ($-141.5B) in April
United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-87.62B, above expectations ($-141.5B) in April

15:30 United States Personal Spending meets forecasts (0.2%) in April
United States Personal Spending meets forecasts (0.2%) in April

15:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in April
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in April

15:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.5%) in April
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.5%) in April

15:30 United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.3%) in April
United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.3%) in April

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in 1Q
Canada Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in 1Q

15:25 US Trade Rep. Greer: Concerned with China's non-compliance, has to be addressed
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer said that they are concerned with China's non-compliance and added that this situation has to be addressed, per Reuters.

15:19 US Pres. Trump: China has totally violated its agreement with US
In a post published on Truth Social on Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that China has violated its agreement with the US.

15:04 Germany annual CPI inflation holds steady at 2.1% as forecast
Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), held steady at 2.1% on a yearly basis in May, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Friday. This reading came in line with the market expectation.

Annual inflation in Germany remained unchanged at 2.1% in May as expected.EUR/USD stays in daily range below 1.1350 after the data.Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), held steady at 2.1% on a yearly basis in May, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Friday. This reading came in line with the market expectation.On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% following the 0.4% increase recorded in April.The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in Germany, the European Central Bank's preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.1% on a yearly basis after rising 2.2% in April. This reading came in above analysts' estimate of 2%.Market reactionThese figures don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the Euro's valuation. At the time of press, EUR/USD was down 0.25% on the day at 1.1337.

15:04 JPY outperforming as Tokyo CPI firms expectations for continued BoJ tightening – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is strong and outperforming all of the G10 currencies, entering Friday’s NA session with a 0.3% gain against the US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is strong and outperforming all of the G10 currencies, entering Friday’s NA session with a 0.3% gain against the US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Longer-term trend for USD/JPY remains bearish"A run of stronger than expected (Tokyo) CPI, industrial production, and retail sales data was responsible for the JPY’s Asian session gains as market participants considered their implications for the next BoJ policy meeting on June 17." "The Tokyo CPI print was most important, printing 3.6% y/y to reach its highest level since (the post-pandemic surge) of late 2022/early 2023. Japan’s government bond market took the release in stride, and a JGB auction of two year notes attracted its highest bid-to-cover ratio in four months." "The longer-term trend for USD/JPY remains bearish however near-term technicals are neutral as we await a break of the recent range roughly bound between 140 and the mid-148 area."

15:03 India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR climbed from previous 13468.52B to 15772.7B in March
India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR climbed from previous 13468.52B to 15772.7B in March

15:01 GBP quietly consolidating recent push to multi-year high – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, trading down a modest 0.1% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, trading down a modest 0.1% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Multi-month trend is bullish"GBP appears to be consolidating following Monday’s push to a fresh multi-year high, lacking any meaningful domestic catalyst in a relatively quiet week, data wise. Next week’s calendar also offers little, with third tier data and a few scheduled BoE speakers." "This week’s BoE speeches were generally cautious on growth with mild-concern about inflation as Gov. Bailey said that ‘we have been predicting this hump in inflation for a long time’ and spoke to concerns about second round effects." "The multi-month trend is bullish and GBP/USD has continued its push to fresh multi-year highs, nearly reaching 1.36 on Monday. Momentum is also bullish, with an RSI close to 60 leaving ample room for further gains ahead of the overbought threshold at 70."

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.1%) in May
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.1%) in May

15:00 Mexico Jobless Rate s.a remains at 2.6% in April
Mexico Jobless Rate s.a remains at 2.6% in April

15:00 Brazil Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.9% below forecasts (3.2%) in 1Q
Brazil Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.9% below forecasts (3.2%) in 1Q

15:00 South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) dipped from previous 24.77B to 14.08B in April
South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) dipped from previous 24.77B to 14.08B in April

15:00 Mexico Jobless Rate increased to 2.5% in April from previous 2.2%
Mexico Jobless Rate increased to 2.5% in April from previous 2.2%

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0.1%) in May
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0.1%) in May

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in May
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in May

15:00 Brazil Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (1.4%) in 1Q
Brazil Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (1.4%) in 1Q

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in May
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in May

14:59 Gold recovers quickly after US court ruling on Trump's tariffs – Commerzbank
The price of Gold briefly fell below the USD 3,250 per troy ounce mark on Thursday after it was announced that a US court had declared most of the tariffs imposed by US President Trump to be illegal, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

The price of Gold briefly fell below the USD 3,250 per troy ounce mark on Thursday after it was announced that a US court had declared most of the tariffs imposed by US President Trump to be illegal, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Gold can benefit continuing high demand for safe havens"It pointed out that only the US Congress could regulate trade with other countries. However, the precious metal recovered quickly as it was unclear whether the tariffs would be suspended immediately. In the evening, an appeals court ruled that the court ruling would be paused for the time being and that the tariffs would therefore remain in effect.""Furthermore, the court ruling primarily concerned reciprocal tariffs, but not sectoral tariffs on aluminium and steel, for example. The US government could therefore focus more on these instead of country-specific tariffs." "The trade conflict is therefore far from over, which means that the economic outlook remains gloomy and expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to remain strong. In addition to the continuing high demand for safe havens, Gold could also benefit from this."

14:57 CAD steady in quiet trade – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session. Broader market sentiment is relatively neutral, with European stocks a little firmer while US equity futures are currently trading lower.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session. Broader market sentiment is relatively neutral, with European stocks a little firmer while US equity futures are currently trading lower. Our fair value estimate for USD/CAD has edged a little lower into the end of the week (1.3839) as factors driving the estimate edge marginally more supportive for the CAD. With markets overall fairly calm and spot trading near its estimated equilibrium, narrow range trading may extend today, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GDP in focus ahead of BoC"This morning’s Canadian GDP data will likely reflect sluggish growth for March and Q1 overall. Growth headwinds remain unabated from US tariff developments while wildfires in Alberta may also start to impinge on oil production. Very soft data today may bolster market expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada next week. Swaps are currently pricing in only 6-7bps of easing risk." "USD/CAD is tracking a little higher on the week overall but net USD gains are not enough to challenge the bearish implications of last week’s net USD decline (bearish “engulfing” line on the week chart). Also, the net drop in the USD seen in yesterday’s session overall formed a daily outside range reversal patten on the chart. Trend momentum signals remain bearish on the daily and weekly studies but have eased to neutral on the intraday oscillator." "That may mean a little more range trading for funds in the short run but the broader, technical pointers remain tilted to the downside. That should mean limited scope for USD gains (resistance at 1.3850/60) and a little more weakness in the USD in the days ahead. Support is 1.3785 and 1.3750."

14:54 EU carbon surplus rises 3% on RePowerEU supply – Commerzbank
According to figures published on Wednesday, the number of certificates in circulation (TNAC) at the end of 2024 stood at 1.148 billion, which was actually around 3% higher than in the previous year, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

According to figures published on Wednesday, the number of certificates in circulation (TNAC) at the end of 2024 stood at 1.148 billion, which was actually around 3% higher than in the previous year, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. More allowances shifted to market stability reserve"This is primarily attributable to the additional supply of certificates to finance the RePowerEU plan. As a result, at 276 million, more emission allowances must now be transferred to the market stability reserve than in the previous year, when the figure was 266 million." "This will reduce the auction supply in the 12 months from September onwards. Nevertheless, according to BNEF, supply is likely to exceed demand again in the current year due to the front-loaded auctions. This is slowing down the recovery of carbon prices, which, at EUR 70 per ton, are nevertheless around EUR 10 higher than at the beginning of April.""However, long-term targets are the key factor for longer-term price developments. In this sense, the upcoming discussion on the interim target for 2040 is of great interest. The EU Commission intends to present a proposal on this matter on 2 July, which will include more flexibility for its proposed target of a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990."

14:44 US gasoline demand strong ahead of summer driving season – Commerzbank
Yesterday's weekly US inventory report halted the slide on the oil market, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Yesterday's weekly US inventory report halted the slide on the oil market, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. US crude stocks drop, gap to 5-year average widens"US crude oil inventories fell surprisingly sharply, and the gap to the five-year average widened again to 6%. However, the most notable development was the significant increase in US gasoline demand to almost 9.5 million barrels per day, a good 800,000 barrels more than in the previous week." "The fact that demand rose so sharply even before the start of the summer driving season, which began last weekend with Memorial Day, is also attributable to the method of recording, which is based on how much gasoline is delivered from US refineries to petrol stations." "Petrol station operators were obviously very optimistic. After all, the US Automobile Association (AAA) had also predicted a new travel record for the Memorial Day weekend."

14:36 USD/CAD consolidates within previous ranges, with 1.3835 holding bulls
The US Dollar is clinging to minor gains on Friday, with price action wavering within previous day’s ranges and the 4-hour RSI flat around the 50 level, which signals a lack of clear bias.The Dollar whipsawed on Thursday before closing the day with a 0.2% decline, as a federal court paused a previou

14:35 EUR soft in quiet trade – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in generally quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in generally quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB's 25bpt rate cut next week’s is fully priced "The currency remains range bound heading into next week’s ECB meeting, as market participants look through a widely anticipated and fully priced 25bpt rate cut and hope for medium-term policy guidance in the form of fresh economic projections." "Markets are pricing in at least one more 25bpt rate cut by year end and policymakers maintained a dovish bias without providing an ultimate landing target for rates. In terms of data, German state-level inflation figures were mixed. All eyes are on Tuesday’s release of preliminary euro area CPI data for the month of May." "The multi-month trend remains bullish, given the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Support has been observed at the 50 day MA (1.1196), and the recent range has been bound between support in the mid-1.10s and resistance in the upper-1.15s. Momentum is modestly bullish, and the short-term range is roughly bound between support below 1.1250 and resistance above 1.14."

14:33 USD firmer but tariff, fiscal uncertainties persist – Scotiabank
Tariffs were off Tuesday night and were back on again, at least for now, Thursday afternoon after a Federal Appeals Court allowed the president’s tariff plans to remain in place pending further rulings, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Tariffs were off Tuesday night and were back on again, at least for now, Thursday afternoon after a Federal Appeals Court allowed the president’s tariff plans to remain in place pending further rulings, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD firms modestly but investors fret over trade"Markets shrugged off the developments, with an appeal from the administration expected—though perhaps not that quickly. Tariff uncertainty continues and while markets were unfazed by the news, the erratic developments in tariff policy means uncertainty for business remains particularly acute and will surely become more apparent in US hard data soon. The USD has advanced a little in overnight trade but concerns that the USD’s prospects are being damaged by the administration’s tariff and fiscal policies are rising while the erosion of free trade and questions over the Fed’s independence are adding to negative USD sentiment." "A new concern for investors that has emerged this week is a provision in President Trump’s tax bill that would increase taxes on passive income for individuals and investors based in countries where tax policies on digital services are deemed 'discriminatory'. The measure could represent another headwind for foreign capital investment flows into the US and affect the USD31tn already invested in US assets by foreigners. Needless to say, reduced capital inflows or outflows even from US asset markets as a result of this provision could affect the USD longer run performance." "Uncertainty over the tax may limit the USD’s near-term potential to stabilize or improve. DXY trend line resistance looks solid around 100.25 which may be the ceiling for any gains in the short run. There are a number of US data reports this morning, including Personal Income and Spending plus PCE data, Wholesale Inventories, the Chicago PMI and (final) U. Michigan Sentiment data. China releases PMI data this evening."

14:31 India Bank Loan Growth declined to 9.8% in May 12 from previous 9.9%
India Bank Loan Growth declined to 9.8% in May 12 from previous 9.9%

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD up to $692.72B in May 19 from previous $685.73B
India FX Reserves, USD up to $692.72B in May 19 from previous $685.73B

14:21 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range of 7.1800/7.2000 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.1800/7.2000 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.1800/7.2000 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is likely to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "USD rose early yesterday. When it was at 7.2025, we noted that 'The increase in momentum is likely to lead to further advance, potentially to 7.2130.' However, USD rose less than expected to 7.2076 and then fell, reaching a low of 7.1828 in the NY session. The price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 7.1800 and 7.2000." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our USD view to neutral view yesterday (29 May, spot at 7.2025), indicating that 'the recent downward bias has faded.' We added, 'USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300 for now.' There is no change in our view for now."

14:15 No giving in from Kazakhstan: Will other key producers follow suit? – Commerzbank
The press statement following Wednesday's OPEC+ meeting was extremely short.

The press statement following Wednesday's OPEC+ meeting was extremely short. In the end, all previous decisions were confirmed, including production quotas until December 2026 and the mandate for the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. OPEC+ eyes further output hike at Saturday meeting"The focus is now on Saturday's (virtual) meeting of the eight key producers, who have additionally cut back their production. According to delegates, a further increase in production is on the cards (see above). This is all the more likely given the latest statements by Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov, who has apparently already informed OPEC that his country will not reduce production.""Around 70% of the country's oil production is in the hands of international companies, which cannot be held to any commitments. According to the minister, further increases in production cannot be ruled out from September onwards." "The Kazakh Deputy Energy Minister is also quoted as saying that a further increase in OPEC+ production is to be expected on Saturday, but that the exact figure has not yet been decided: 400, 500 or 600 thousand barrels per day. If production in July were to increase even more than in previous months, oil prices, which have already fallen slightly in the run-up to the meeting, are likely to come under further pressure."

14:11 USD/JPY declines below 144.00 as Japanese Yen strengthens on hot Tokyo CPI data
The USD/JPY pair trades lower slightly below 144.00 during European trading hours on Friday. The asset weakens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms across the board after the Statistics Bureau of Japan reported a hotter-than-projected Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May.

14:08 Gold declines as US Dollar rebounds after Appeals court suspends tariff ban
Gold price (XAU/USD) slides to near $3,290 during European trading hours on Friday, following a strong upside move the previous day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price falls back to near $3,300 as the US Dollar rebounds after US Appeals court lifts the ban on Trump’s tariffs temporarily.Earlier, US International Trade court struck down Trump’s tariffs as they were implemented under the cover of a national emergency.The US core PCE inflation is expected to grow moderately by 2.5% on year in April.Gold price (XAU/USD) slides to near $3,290 during European trading hours on Friday, following a strong upside move the previous day. The yellow metal faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after the United States (US) Court of Appeals suspends the federal trade court’s decision to ban the majority of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, potentially diminishing hopes of permanent invalidation of import duties.Typically, a higher US Dollar makes investment in the Gold price an expensive bet for investors. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back to near 99.65.On Wednesday, the US court of International Trade quoted most of the tariffs announced by Trump as “illegal”, citing that large trade imbalances don’t constitute a “national emergency” under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Using the IEEPA law, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on all of his trading partners, a fentanyl duty on China, Canada and Mexico, and border negligence levies on his North American peers.Daily digest marker movers: Gold price trades lower ahead of US PCE Inflation dataA slight corrective move in the Gold price is also driven by anxiety among financial market participants ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be published at 14:30 GMT. The core US PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 2.5% on year, compared to the prior release of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, the underlying inflation data is expected to have grown by 0.1% after remaining flat in March.However, the impact of the US PCE inflation data is likely to be limited in shaping market views on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as officials are more concerned about consumer inflation expectations amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy.On Thursday, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee stated that elevated uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy has held back US business. "If people can’t count on consistent policy, then they’re just going to slow down and not act," Goolsbee said, Reuters reported. Regarding the court ruling against the tariff policy, he added that the uncertainty would increase if the administration goes the other way to keep import duties in existence. Goolsbee also signaled that policymakers could bring interest rates down if “tariffs are avoided by a deal or otherwise”. The White House stated on Thursday that it will manage to keep tariffs in any way. “You can assume that even if we lose [in court], we will do it [tariffs] another way,” Washington trade negotiator Peter Navarro said, Reuters reported.Technical Analysis: Gold price wobbles around 20-day EMAGold price continues to struggle near the upward-sloping trendline on a daily timeframe around $3,335, which is plotted from the December 12 high of $2,726. The near-term trend of the precious metal is uncertain as it wobbles around the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $3,290.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.Looking up, the May 7 high around $3,440 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the May 15 low at $3,120 will be the key support zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

14:04 USD/JPY: Oversold conditions indicate that any decline is unlikely to reach 142.80 – UOB Group
Sharp drop in US Dollar (USD) could extend against Japanese Yen (JPY); oversold conditions indicate that any decline is unlikely to reach 142.80.

Sharp drop in US Dollar (USD) could extend against Japanese Yen (JPY); oversold conditions indicate that any decline is unlikely to reach 142.80. In the longer run, the outlook for USD is unclear after wild swings; for the time being it could trade between 142.10 and 146.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Outlook for USD is unclear after wild swings24-HOUR VIEW: "Two days ago, we expected USD to strengthen. Yesterday, after USD surged in the early Asian session, we indicated that 'We continue to expect USD to strengthen, but this time around, the significant resistance at 147.50 is unlikely to come under threat.' We pointed out that 'There is another resistance at 146.80.' USD rose less than expected to 146.28, and then in a surprise move, plunged to 143.94. The sharp drop could extend, but oversold conditions indicate that any decline is unlikely to reach 142.80. Resistance is at 144.60, followed by 145.20." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "USD surged in the early Asian trade yesterday. When it was at 145.75, we stated that 'even though the price action suggests further upside, it is too early to tell whether 147.50 is within reach.' We added, 'To sustain the momentum, USD must remain above the ‘strong support’ level, now at 144.50.' USD subsequently rose to 146.28 before reversing sharply, breaking below our ‘strong support’ level to reach 143.94. After the wild swings over the past few days, the outlook for USD is unclear. For the time being, USD could trade within this week’s wide range, between 142.10 and 146.30."

14:01 Gold is trading firmly amid trade uncertainty – Commerzbank
Gold prices are once again supported by geopolitical uncertainty. While prices dipped slightly after tariff delays, ongoing trade tensions continue to drive demand for the safe-haven meta, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Gold prices are once again supported by geopolitical uncertainty. While prices dipped slightly after tariff delays, ongoing trade tensions continue to drive demand for the safe-haven meta, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Tariff risks keep safe-haven demand elevated"The price of Gold is once again benefiting from the geopolitical situation. It has fallen again somewhat after Trump postponed an increase in tariffs against the EU and a US court ruled that most of the tariffs were illegal." "However, it is unclear whether the US administration will be impressed by this or whether it will find another way to introduce the tariffs. Uncertainty in the trade conflict is therefore likely to remain high until the negotiations are finalised, meaning that demand for the precious metal, which is considered a safe haven, should also remain high for the time being."

13:48 NZD/USD: Likely to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6000 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6000. In the longer run, upward momentum has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6000. In the longer run, upward momentum has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum has faded24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected NZD to 'trade in a sideways range of 0.5925/0.5975.' However, after testing the 0.5925 level (low of 0.5926), NZD rose to 0.5990. We continue to expect range trading, but given the slight increase in upward momentum, NZD is likely to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6000." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted yesterday (29 May, spot at 0.5950) that the recent 'upward momentum has faded.' We also highlighted that NZD 'is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now.' Our view remains unchanged."

13:46 Oil price caught between OPEC and geopolitics – Commerzbank
The Oil market is likely to be eagerly awaiting tomorrow's decision by the eight OPEC+ countries that have voluntarily cut their production.

The Oil market is likely to be eagerly awaiting tomorrow's decision by the eight OPEC+ countries that have voluntarily cut their production. Following media reports that some delegates had already indicated that they would probably decide on a further significant increase in production, the Oil price had fallen. The actual announcement is therefore likely to have only a limited effect. The Oil price would probably only come under greater pressure if the Oil-producing countries were to increase their production even more than in previous months or give indications that there will be similarly high production increases in the following months, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Oil price is being supported by geopolitical factors"However, the fact that OPEC+ has at its last meetings not wanted to commit itself in advance speaks against this, probably also to give some members — above all Kazakhstan — the opportunity to correct their previous overproduction. In our view, the failure of these countries to meet their production targets is the main reason why the eight OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia, have recently increased their production more than originally planned.""Meanwhile, the Oil price is being supported by geopolitical factors. The US administration has renewed a US company's licence to produce Oil in Venezuela, allowing the company to maintain its operations there at a minimal level. At the same time, however, it has prohibited the company from exporting Oil. This is likely to have come as a disappointment to some market participants after a further extension of the previous production and export licence was discussed." "In addition, US President Trump recently clearly criticised Russia's President Putin for the recent attacks on Ukraine and threatened new sanctions, which would most likely affect the energy sector there. In light of these developments, an early easing of energy sanctions, which still seemed possible a few weeks ago, is now hardly conceivable."

13:40 AUD/USD: Likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6420/0.6470 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6420/0.6470 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6420/0.6470 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD to range trade in the coming days24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, when AUD was at 0.6420, we stated that AUD 'could edge below 0.6400.' However, we were of the view that 'the next support at 0.6380 is unlikely to come under threat.' Our expectations did not turn out as expected, as AUD traded between 0.6408 and 0.6459. The price movements appear to be part of a consolidation phase, even though the firmer underlying tone suggests AUD is likely to trade in a higher range of 0.6420/0.6470 today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from two days ago (28 May, spot at 0.6450), is still valid. As highlighted, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485."

13:38 AUD/USD retreats to levels near 0.6400 ahead with US inflation in the spotlight
The Aussie Dollar is retracing Thursday’s gains on Friday, with investors wary of holding large US Dollar shorts ahead of the release of US PCE inflation data.

13:37 USD: Trust in the US is shaken – Commerzbank
Yesterday, there was a brief glimmer of hope that US courts might overturn the US government's tariff policy. The resulting recovery of the US dollar was short-lived. After an appeals court blocked a corresponding injunction, the dollar took a significant hit. Of course, the ruling is preliminary.

Yesterday, there was a brief glimmer of hope that US courts might overturn the US government's tariff policy. The resulting recovery of the US dollar was short-lived. After an appeals court blocked a corresponding injunction, the dollar took a significant hit. Of course, the ruling is preliminary. The final outcome is not necessarily clear. Nevertheless, the US government has already made it clear that it would pursue further legal avenues if necessary: appealing to the Supreme Court, finding other legal grounds for the tariffs, etc, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. The uncertainty of the Big Beautiful Bill"And in any case, one must ask how capable the judiciary in the US is of stopping the government. The poor guy who remains in prison in El Salvador, even though this situation contradicts current US case law, is not only regrettable, but also a warning sign that the legal control of the US government is de facto incomplete. He is therefore not only relevant to US migration policy, but also to other policy areas, including trade policy.""Can we really believe that in case of doubt – when it is more relevant than it is at present – the president will accept the Fed's independence? Here, too, legalistic arguments can be made to explain why the president has only limited options to curtail Fed independence under the current legal framework. But here, too (as above), the market is unlikely to derive sufficient certainty from this. From a market perspective, confidence in the US legal system is likely to become increasingly insufficient, regardless of what individual court rulings say.""I find it particularly interesting that a section of the tax bill currently before the US Senate (the 'big beautiful bill') is attracting increasing attention: section 899. This gives the US president the right to impose a special tax on foreign investors in the US if the taxes in their home country are considered unfair from the US perspective. Europe would also be affected by this. Section 899 shows that what was feared is actually happening: now that the US government is realizing that tariffs are not a simple tool for forcing other countries into compliant behavior, alternative instruments are needed. Anyone who invests in the US or who is considering investing in the US must be aware of this. In my view, it is highly questionable how much of a premium the dollar still deserves for allowing capital to be invested there."

13:31 India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) above expectations (6.7%) in 1Q: Actual (7.4%)
India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) above expectations (6.7%) in 1Q: Actual (7.4%)

13:25 Italy Producer Price Index (YoY): 2.6% (April) vs previous 3.9%
Italy Producer Price Index (YoY): 2.6% (April) vs previous 3.9%

13:25 Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) up to -2.2% in April from previous -2.4%
Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) up to -2.2% in April from previous -2.4%

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.5%) in 1Q
Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.5%) in 1Q

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with expectations (1.6%) in 1Q
Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with expectations (1.6%) in 1Q

12:58 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 1.3455/1.3530 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range of 1.3455/1.3530. In the longer run, current price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase, likely between 1.3400 and 1.3600, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range of 1.3455/1.3530. In the longer run, current price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase, likely between 1.3400 and 1.3600, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements seem to be part of a range trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected GBP to 'trade with a downward bias toward 1.3395.' However, we pointed out, 'a sustained break below this level seems unlikely.' Our view was incorrect, as after dropping to 1.3417, GBP rebounded to close at 1.3490 (+0.23%). The slight increase in momentum is not enough to suggest further rise. Today, GBP is more likely to trade in a range of 1.3455/1.3530." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In the early Asian session yesterday (29 May, spot at 1.3435), we indicated that 'the slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to GBP trading in a lower range of 1.3330/1.3530.' We did not expect the subsequent strong rebound that reached 1.3507. The mild downward momentum has faded with the rebound, and upward momentum has increased slightly. That said, the current price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase, albeit a higher one, between 1.3400 and 1.3600."

12:55 JPY: Tokyo inflation data warns of July BoJ rate hike – ING
Tokyo May inflation data surprised on the upside, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Tokyo May inflation data surprised on the upside, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Risks are clearly skewed to the downside for the USD/JPY"At the 3.6% YoY, the ex-food reading was the highest since early 2023. The data supports her view that the risk of a Bank of Japan rate hike in July is underpriced by the market. Currently, investors only attach a 14% probability to such an outcome.""A hike in July would certainly support the yen. It would also make it a little less expensive for Japanese holders to FX hedge their US assets. Those investors from a low interest rate region (i.e., Japan) tend to have lower hedge ratios on US assets." "Clearly, a reduction in hedging costs would add to the current narrative that the global investor community wants to raise its dollar hedge ratios. We have a 140 year-end forecast for USD/JPY. But the risks are clearly skewed to the downside here."

12:48 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435 for now – UOB Group
There is scope for the sharp rally to extend; deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1330/1.1415.

There is scope for the sharp rally to extend; deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1330/1.1415. In the longer run, increase in momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained advance; EUR is likely to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. There is scope for the sharp rally to extend24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR plunged in the early Asian session yesterday. When EUR was at 1.1245, we highlighted that 'further weakness is not ruled out, but the sharp drop seems excessive, and it is unclear whether EUR can break and hold below 1.1200.' However, rather than weakening, EUR surged, reaching a high of 1.1384 in the late NY session. The sharp rally has scope to extend, but given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1330/1.1415. To put it another way, EUR is unlikely to break clearly above 1.1415." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: 'To continue to decline, EUR must first close below 1.1200. The risk of EUR closing below 1.1200 will remain intact provided that the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 1.1355, is not breached.' EUR never threatened 1.1200 (low of 1.1209). Instead, it reversed all of its early Asian session selloff, surging to close at 1.1371 in NY, up 0.70%. Although the sharp rally has gathered some momentum, it is not enough to indicate a sustained advance just yet. To rise in a sustained manner, EUR must first break and hold above 1.1435. Meanwhile, we expect EUR to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435."

12:45 USD: April spending and inflation data in focus – ING
Yesterday's dollar rally didn't last long. It quickly became clear that the Trump administration would pursue other trade laws to enact its tariffs, and later, the US Court of Appeals proposed a delay in the original court ruling that tariffs were illegal.

Yesterday's dollar rally didn't last long. It quickly became clear that the Trump administration would pursue other trade laws to enact its tariffs, and later, the US Court of Appeals proposed a delay in the original court ruling that tariffs were illegal. The suggestion now is that a further presentation of evidence could last up until 9 June in the appeals court, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY can make a run back to 98.70 "What weighed on the dollar more yesterday seemed to be the US macro data. Personal consumption got revised down to 1.2% from 1.7% quarter-on-quarter annualised in the first quarter GDP release. And a pick-up in initial claims didn't help either. In effect, we saw a return to traditional correlations, where US Treasury yields dropped 5bp and the dollar weakened.""Traditional macro correlations could be in store for the dollar today. The focus here is on the April PCE data. Perhaps most important will be the personal spending number, which is expected to soften to 0.2% month-on-month from 0.7%. Any downside miss here would hit the dollar. The market will also be looking at the price data. This is expected to be very benign, with the core deflator still at 0.1% MoM, bringing the year-on-year rate to 2.5% – the lowest since 2021.""Friday is also our day to report on Fed Custody holdings of US Treasuries for foreign official accounts. In the week to Wednesday, these actually rose $10bn. So no evidence this week of a further divestment in US assets. Remember, the Fed thinks it's hedging, not divestment, that has been driving the dollar lower recently. DXY could make a run back to 98.70 should personal spending disappoint today."

12:39 NZD/USD retreats from 0.6000 with the US Dollar picking up ahead of the PCE inflation release
The New Zealand Dollar has been rejected at the 0.6000 psychological area and returned to 0.5950, as the US Dollar regains lost ground, with investors bracing for the release of April’s US PCE Price Index reading.,The Dollar lost ground against its main peers earlier on Thursday, as a US federal co

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:02 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in May
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in May

12:02 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (1.7%) in May
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (1.7%) in May

12:02 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.9%) in May
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.9%) in May

12:02 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (0%) in May
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (0%) in May

12:01 Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) down to 8.3% in April from previous 9%
Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) down to 8.3% in April from previous 9%

12:00 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 0.5% in April
Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 0.5% in April

12:00 Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 0.3% (March) vs previous 4.6%
Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 0.3% (March) vs previous 4.6%

11:41 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD is looking for direction above the $32.70 support area
Silver keeps posting lower highs since peaking at $33.70 last weekRecent price action is forming a descending triangle pattern, a bearish sign.XAG/USD: Below the $32.60-3270 support, the next targets are $32.15 and $31.70.Silver prices (XAG/USD) are paring losses during Friday’s European session.

11:36 ECB’s Panetta: Reduced room to cut rates further, but macro outlook remains weak
European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Fabio Panetta said on Friday that there is a “reduced room to cut rates further, but the macro outlook remains weak and trade tensions could worsen it.”

11:32 US Dollar Index rebounds modestly as US Appeals court puts tariff-ban on hold
The US Dollar (USD) recovers on Friday after a sharp sell-off the previous day, with investors remaining uncertain over the existence of majority of tariffs imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump on all of his trading partners since his return to the White House this year.

11:24 EUR/USD trims gains, returning below 1.1350 with US PCE inflation in focus
EUR/USD is trading with minor losses around 1.1340 at the time of writing on Friday, but it holds most of the ground taken during Thursday after a US federal court reversed the block on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, triggering a sharp US Dollar (USD) sell-off.The US Court of Appeals paused th

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EUR/USD trims gains as the US Dollar finds support ahead of the PCE inflation data release.A US federal court reversed the previous day's sentence blocking tariffs and sent the US Dollar tumbling on Thursday. In Europe, the focus will be on the German CPI due later today.EUR/USD is trading with minor losses around 1.1340 at the time of writing on Friday, but it holds most of the ground taken during Thursday after a US federal court reversed the block on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, triggering a sharp US Dollar (USD) sell-off.

The US Court of Appeals paused the previous day’s ruling of the Court for International Trade, which blocked most of the levies introduced on April 2. The decision has added to the global trade scenario and increased pressure on all US assets.

Investors’ concerns about the erratic trade policy, coupled with growing fears about US fiscal stability, heightened by a tax-slashing bill that is expected to add trillions of Dollars to an already high US debt, are fuelling the “Sell America” trade and undermining the USD over the last two months.

In the macroeconomic front, US data did little to improve markets ’mood, with weekly Initial Jobless Claims rising beyond expectations and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) confirming that the economy contracted in the first quarter.

In Europe, German Retail Sales data have failed to support the Euro (EUR), increasing concerns about the health of the Eurozone’s major economy, although the impact has been minimal. Investors’ focus is on the German Consumer Prices Index figures, due later in the day. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.21% 0.07% -0.13% 0.06% 0.36% 0.02% 0.07% EUR -0.21% -0.12% -0.38% -0.15% 0.18% 0.13% -0.15% GBP -0.07% 0.12% -0.21% -0.01% 0.32% 0.08% -0.01% JPY 0.13% 0.38% 0.21% 0.21% 0.61% 0.32% 0.28% CAD -0.06% 0.15% 0.01% -0.21% 0.39% 0.08% 0.00% AUD -0.36% -0.18% -0.32% -0.61% -0.39% -0.06% -0.33% NZD -0.02% -0.13% -0.08% -0.32% -0.08% 0.06% -0.27% CHF -0.07% 0.15% 0.01% -0.28% -0.01% 0.33% 0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar finds support ahead of the PCE reportThe US Dollar dropped sharply after the Court of Appeals’ decision to temporarily reinstate US President Trump’s trade tariffs. However, the Greenback found some footing on Friday, with investors bracing for the release of the US Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due later in the day.
US PCE inflation is expected to have ticked up by 0.1% in April, after a flat reading in March, with the yearly rate easing to 2.2% from the previous 2.3% reading. The core figure, of higher relevance to the Federal Reserve (Fed), is expected to show the same monthly performance, with the yearly inflation down to 2.5% from 2.6% in March.
Data released on Thursday revealed that the US Weekly Jobless Claims increased by 240K last week, well above the 230K expected. The previous week’s reading was revised down to 226K from the previously estimated 227K.
Apart from that, the first quarter’s US GDP confirmed that the economy contracted, although at a slower-than-expected rate, -0.2% instead of the -0.3% previously reported.
Furthermore, US consumer spending slowed down against expectations. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures eased to 3.4% in the first quarter, against the 3.5% expected, all in all increasing fears about the economic momentum.
In the Euro Area, German Retail Sales have shown an unexpected decline in April. Retail consumption fell by 1.1% against expectations of a 0.2% increase, which reveals the soft momentum of the country’s economy.
The highlight of the day, however, is the German CPI release, which is expected to show some moderation in April, with the yearly CPI steady at 2.1% and the core index easing to 2% from the previous 2.2%. These figures add to the case for further European Central Bank (ECB) easing in June and might hurt the Euro.Technical analysis: EUR/USD remains capped by the reverse trendline at the 1.1390 areaEUR/USD bounced sharply on Thursday, printing a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. This is a positive sign, but it needs to be confirmed by further appreciation above a previous trendline support, now turned resistance, at 1.1390, and also above the weekly high, at 1.1420.

A confirmation above those two levels would shift the focus towards the April 22 high, near 1.1545.

On the contrary, failure to extend beyond 1.1420 might put bears back in control, and increase pressure towards the 1.1220 support zone ahead of the 1.1135 (May 16 low) and 1.1070 (May 12 low) levels.EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

11:10 Pound Sterling corrects against US Dollar after US court reinstates Trump tariffs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops to near 1.3475 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European trading session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling falls slightly to near 1.3475 against the US Dollar as the Greenback rebounds slightly.A US federal appeals court temporarily puts on hold a lower court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs.Investors await the US PCE inflation data for April.The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops to near 1.3475 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European trading session. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure after a United States (US) federal appeals court temporarily halted a federal trade court’s decision to block most of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The move hurt market sentiment due to renewed fears over how the impact of a trade war between the US and its main trade partners could hit growth. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks up to near 99.50.On Wednesday, a US trade court ordered the permanent injunction of reciprocal, fentanyl, and border negligence-related tariffs in 10 calendar days for abusing the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court accused Trump of invoking “national emergency” to execute tariff policies, which should have been imposed with the approval of the Congress.The appeal court, however, halted the ruling due to the government’s appeal and ordered the plaintiffs [US small businesses] in the cases to respond by June 5 and the administration by June 9, according to a report from the Firstpost.Apart from the judicial woes related to tariffs, another reason behind the moderate recovery in the US Dollar is a clear signal from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that it will focus solely on maintaining the central bank’s dual mandate, shrugging off recent political pressure from Trump.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after his first face-to-face meeting with Trump since the return of the latter to the White House that the path of policy will depend entirely on “incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook," Reuters reported. Powell also said that he didn’t express his intentions to Trump regarding the monetary policy outlook. Trump said that he believes the Fed is making a mistake by not lowering interest rates.For fresh cues regarding the US monetary policy outlook, investors await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April at 12:30 GMT. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates until September.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades steadily against its peersThe Pound Sterling is broadly sideways against its major peers during European trading hours on Friday. The British currency is expected to close May on a positive note against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive month. Market expectations for a moderate policy-expansion cycle by the Bank of England (BoE) and the closure of trade deals with Washington, Delhi, and Brussels have helped strengthening the UK currency.According to a report from Reuters, the futures market indicates that traders expect borrowing rates to fall by around 38 basis points (bps) by the end of this year, implying one 25 bps interest-rate cut and a roughly 50% odds of a second.The major triggers behind traders paring BoE dovish bets are robust economic growth in the first quarter and, hotter-than-projected inflation.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its UK GDP growth forecast for the current year to 1.2% from its prior estimate of 1.1%. The upward revision came on the back of upbeat Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which showed that the economy expanded at a robust pace of 0.7% compared to 0.1% seen in the last quarter of 2024.On Thursday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey guided a “gradual and careful approach” in cutting interest rates, citing that the economy is “hard to read”. Bailey cautioned about “strengthening inflation in food and other product categories”. On the employment front, Bailey said that the UK labour market data is pretty much “in line with our expectations” and the “slowing wage increase trend is still intact”.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling holds key support level of 1.3445The Pound Sterling falls to near 1.3470 against the US Dollar on Friday after a strong upside move on the previous day. The GBP/USD pair holds the key horizontal support plotted from the September 26 high of 1.3434 and rises to near 1.3500. The outlook of the pair remains firm as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 1.3395.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to hold above 60.00. The bullish momentum would fade if the RSI slides into the 40.00-60.00 range.On the upside, the January 13, 2022, high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the 20-day EMA will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:07 Spain Current Account Balance: €1.42B (March) vs previous €2.31B
Spain Current Account Balance: €1.42B (March) vs previous €2.31B

11:04 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to 0% in May
Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to 0% in May

11:04 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY): 2.2% (May)
Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY): 2.2% (May)

11:04 Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.3% in May
Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.3% in May

11:04 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) declined to 0% in May from previous 0.5%
Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) declined to 0% in May from previous 0.5%

11:04 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.5%
Germany Saxony CPI (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.5%

11:04 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) down to 2.3% in May from previous 2.4%
Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) down to 2.3% in May from previous 2.4%

11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to 0.2% in May
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to 0.2% in May

11:01 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) climbed from previous 3.7% to 3.8% in April
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) climbed from previous 3.7% to 3.8% in April

11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) rose from previous 1.8% to 2% in May
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) rose from previous 1.8% to 2% in May

11:00 Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in April: Actual (1.9%)
Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in April: Actual (1.9%)

11:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 3.9% above expectations (3.7%) in April
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 3.9% above expectations (3.7%) in April

11:00 Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.3%) in 1Q
Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.3%) in 1Q

11:00 Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q
Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 2.1% (May)
Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 2.1% (May)

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to 0.1% in May
Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to 0.1% in May

10:59 GBP/JPY trades above 194.00 after paring recent losses
GBP/JPY extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 194.00 during the European hours on Friday.

10:56 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.4% to 2.2% in May
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.4% to 2.2% in May

10:56 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.5% to -0.1% in May
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.5% to -0.1% in May

10:40 WTI drops to levels near $60.00 as global trade uncertainty returns
WTI Oil prices reversed gains on Thursday, after the US Court of Appeals reversed a sentence from a lower court to block Trump's trade tariffs.

10:30 NZD/USD falls to near 0.5950 as US Dollar rises ahead of PCE Index data
NZD/USD halts its two-day winning streak after offering daily gains, trading around 0.5960 during the early European hours on Friday. However, the pair could regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) may struggle following the ruling allowing US President Donald Trump's tariffs to take effect.

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However, the pair could regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) may struggle following the ruling allowing US President Donald Trump's tariffs to take effect.A three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan, on Wednesday, condemned Trump’s misuse of the Carter-era International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify his international agenda. The federal court said that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful.“US President Donald Trump's administration is weighing on the use of an existing law that includes language allowing for tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days.” “The administration has not made a final decision, and it could wait to impose any plans,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.On the US data side, the US economy contracted as the preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized showed a 0.2% decline in the Q1. This contraction was less bad than the expected decline of 0.3%. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remained consistent at a 3.6% increase quarter-over-quarter in Q1, as expected. Meanwhile, Core PCE rose 3.4% QoQ against the expected 3.5% increase. Furthermore, the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report will likely be released on Friday.On the Kiwi side, the ANZ–Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence declined to 92.9 in May, down from 98.3 in April, weakening consumer sentiment. The persistent high inflation expectations continue to weigh on household sentiment. Moreover, the seasonally adjusted Building Permits depreciated by 15.6% month-on-month in April, as compared to the previous increase of 10.7% (revised from 9.6%) in March. Economic Indicator Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US).. The MoM figure compares prices in the reference month to the previous month. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri May 30, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.1% Previous: 0% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

10:14 USD/CAD sticks to modest intraday gains above 1.3800 ahead of US PCE data
The USD/CAD pair regains positive traction on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the 1.3860 area, or a one-week high.

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Spot prices stick to modest intraday gains around the 1.3815 region heading into the European session as traders keenly await the release of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The crucial US inflation report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/CAD pair. In the meantime, some repositioning trade assists the USD to attract some dip-buyers following Thursday's dramatic turnaround. Apart from this, weaker Crude Oil prices undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a tailwind for the currency pair.Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, still seems elusive in the wake of concerns about the worsening US fiscal situation. Furthermore, traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further this year, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Adding to this, diminishing odds for a Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cut in June could support the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and also contribute to capping the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom and positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from sub-1.3700 levels, or the year-to-date low touched on Monday. Nevertheless, the USD/CAD pair remains on track to register modest weekly gains, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for bullish traders. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

10:00 USD/CHF extends the decline below 0.8250, US PCE data in focus
The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.8230 during the early European session on Friday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) due to persistent trade-related uncertainties.

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US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report will take center stage later on Friday. The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.8230 during the early European session on Friday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) due to persistent trade-related uncertainties.A federal appeals court late Thursday temporarily paused a sweeping ruling against US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs while it takes more time to consider the administration’s request for a longer-lasting hold. Moreover, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that “US President Donald Trump's administration is considering an existing law that includes language allowing for tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days.” However, Trump has not made a final decision. The administration’s unpredictable policy, along with the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, could support a safe-haven currency like the CHF and create a headwind for the pair. Following five consecutive rate cuts, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is anticipated to cut its benchmark rate to 0% at the upcoming policy meeting on June 19. That would end a period of positive monetary policy, the lowest in almost three years. SNB President Martin Schlegel said that the Swiss central bank would go sub-zero if needed. That doesn’t appear imminent for now, with only a handful of SNB policymakers expecting such a move this year.Traders await the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report due later on Friday for fresh impetus. Also, the final reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the Chicago of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be published. If the reports showed better-than-expected outcomes, this could lift the USD in the near term. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 1.9% in May from previous 2.2%
Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 1.9% in May from previous 2.2%

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in May
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in May

10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.6%
Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.6%

10:00 Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) down to -0.2% in April from previous 0.8%
Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) down to -0.2% in April from previous 0.8%

10:00 Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.9% in April from previous 0%
Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.9% in April from previous 0%

10:00 Forex Today: US tariff headlines limit USD upside ahead of key inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 30:

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) registered at 1.9%, below expectations (2%) in May
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) registered at 1.9%, below expectations (2%) in May

09:54 FX option expiries for May 30 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1250 974m1.1475 979m1.1500 1.1bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 140.00 2.4b143.00 3.3bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3455 390mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8140 450m0.8225 480m0.8325 448mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6065 819m0.6500 598mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3900 799m1.3980 786m1.4500 1.4bNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.6100 221m

09:42 AUD/JPY drops to near 92.50 following Tokyo’s inflation, Aussie Retail Sales data
AUD/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 92.50 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross depreciates nearly 0.50% as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains ground against its peers after Tokyo’s core inflation came in stronger than expected.

09:09 EUR/GBP holds losses near 0.8400 following German Retail Sales, eyes on CPI data
EUR/GBP edges lower after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8420 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross holds losses following the release of Germany’s Retail Sales data.

09:04 German Retail Sales grow 2.3% YoY in April vs. 1.8% expected
Retail Sales in Germany unexpectedly declined 1.1% month-over-month (MoM) in April, following the 0.9% revised growth (from -0.2%) reported in March, according to official data released by Destatis on Friday.

09:03 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.41 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $60.61.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $63.08 after its previous daily close at $63.30.

09:01 South Africa Private Sector Credit up to 4.6% in April from previous 3.45%
South Africa Private Sector Credit up to 4.6% in April from previous 3.45%

09:01 Sweden Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (1.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.9%)
Sweden Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (1.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.9%)

09:00 Sweden Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (0%) in 1Q
Sweden Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (0%) in 1Q

09:00 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -1.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April
Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -1.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April

09:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in April: Actual (2.3%)
Germany Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in April: Actual (2.3%)

09:00 US core PCE inflation likely steady in April as markets price Federal Reserve rate cut for September
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This index is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is expected to rise 0.1% MoM and 2.5% YoY in April.Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold the policy setting unchanged in June.Annual PCE inflation is forecast to edge lower to 2.2%.The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This index is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation.The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis in April, after remaining unchanged in March. Over the last twelve months, the core PCE inflation is forecast to edge lower to 2.5% from 2.6%. Meanwhile, the headline annual PCE inflation is seen retreating to 2.2% from 2.3% in this period. Anticipating the PCE: Insights into the Fed's key inflation metricPCE inflation data is usually seen as a big market mover because it is taken into account by Fed officials when deciding on the next policy move. During the press conference following the May meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that inflation remains above their target and added that they expect upward pressure to persist. Citing “a great deal of uncertainty about tariffs,” Powell argued that the right thing for them to do is to await further clarity before taking the next policy step. Previewing the PCE inflation report, TD Securities said: “We look for core PCE prices to remain subdued in April, rising 0.1% m/m after printing flat in March—though last month's data will be revised higher. Headline PCE inflation should also come in soft at 0.06%. On a y/y basis, we look for core PCE inflation to rise 2.6%. We also expect personal spending to mean-revert after front-loading led to a 0.7% m/m surge in March.”New York Fed President John Williams said earlier in the week that he wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that he supports maintaining interest rates until there is some more clarity on the impact of higher tariffs on inflation. Related news FX daily: Dollar gets a lift from tariff ruling and FOMC insight Fed's Barkin flags economic caution as inflation and fiscal strain linger The Fed must be watching Japan with fascination How will the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index affect EUR/USD?Market participants are likely to react to an unexpected reading in the monthly core PCE Price Index, which is not distorted by base effects. A print of 0.3% or higher MoM could support the US Dollar (USD) with an immediate reaction. On the other hand, a reading of 0% or a negative print could have the opposite effect on the USD’s performance against its major rivals.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently see virtually no chance of a Fed rate cut in June, while pricing in about a 25% probability of a cut in July. Hence, the market positioning suggests that the USD has some room left on the upside if the monthly core PCE reading surprises to the upside. Conversely, investors could reassess the probability of a rate reduction in July if a soft PCE figure eases concerns that inflation remains sticky. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds slightly above 50, and EUR/USD fluctuates above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a lack of seller interest. On the downside, 1.1200 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the January-April uptrend, lower limit of the ascending regression channel) aligns as first support before 1.1015-1.1000 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, round level).”“Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1400 (static level), 1.1500 (static level, round level) and 1.1575 (April 21 high).” Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

08:37 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish tone remains in play above 163.00
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 163.25 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates this year.

08:13 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers around $33.00 after breaking below nine-day EMA
Silver price (XAG/USD) offers its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around $33.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

08:13 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Trade below 1.3500; bullish bias remains ahead of US PCE data
The GBP/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.3415 area, or the weekly low amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick.

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The divergent Fed-BoE policy expectations should help limit any meaningful downfall for the major.Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the US inflation report before placing fresh bets.The GBP/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.3415 area, or the weekly low amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3475-1.3470 region, down 0.15% for the day, though the downside seems limited as traders might opt to wait for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.Heading into the key data risk, some repositioning trade assists the USD to regain positive traction following the previous day's dramatic turnaround from over a one-week high and exerts some pressure on the GBP/USD pair. However, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025 and US fiscal concerns might cap the USD. Furthermore, speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) would pause at its next meeting on June 18 and take its time before lowering borrowing costs further should act as a tailwind for the British Pound (GBP).Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts have been gaining some negative traction and back the case for a further intraday slide. However, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory. Moreover, the overnight bounce from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the monthly low favors the GBP/USD bulls. Hence, any subsequent fall might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 1.3425-1.3415 region, which if broken might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses.The GBP/USD pair might then extend this week's corrective pullback from the 1.3600 neighborhood – the highest level since February 2022 – and test the 1.3375-1.3370 confluence. The latter comprises the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart and the 50% Fibo. level, which, in turn, should act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below will negate the near-term constructive outlook and shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, which should set the stage for a slide towards the 1.3300 mark, or the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level.On the flip side, bulls might need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.3500 psychological mark before placing fresh bets. The GBP/USD pair might then climb to the next relevant hurdle near the 1.3540-1.3545 region and then make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 1.3600 round figure. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for the resumption of a two-month-old uptrend.GBP/USD 4-hour chart Economic Indicator Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri May 30, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.5% Previous: 2.6% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

08:00 Japan Construction Orders (YoY) up to 52.7% in April from previous 3.5%
Japan Construction Orders (YoY) up to 52.7% in April from previous 3.5%

07:37 Gold price slides below $3,300 amid a mildly positive USD; focus remains on US PCE
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong recovery move from the $3,246-3,245 region, or over a one-week low, and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price meets with a fresh supply on Friday amid the emergence of some USD dip-buying.Trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and Fed rate cut bets should limit losses for the commodity.Traders look to the US PCE Price Index for Fed rate cut bets and a fresh impetus.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong recovery move from the $3,246-3,245 region, or over a one-week low, and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) regains some positive traction following Thursday's dramatic intraday turnaround, amid some repositioning trade ahead of the pivotal inflation report from the US. This, in turn, is seen undermining demand for the bullion. However, a combination of factors should act as a tailwind for the commodity and help limit deeper losses. A federal appeals court on Thursday paused a separate trade court ruling that blocked US President Donald Trump's tariffs. This adds to a layer of uncertainty, which, along with persistent geopolitical risks, should offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price. Moreover, the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025 might keep a lid on any meaningful USD appreciation and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the non-yielding yellow metal, warranting caution for bears. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price drifts lower as repositioning trade ahead of US PCE leads to a modest USD uptickThe overnight sharp US Dollar retracement slide lacks follow-through as bears seem reluctant ahead of the release of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index later this Friday. A federal appeals court on Thursday temporarily reinstated US President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs, a day after a separate trade court deemed them illegal and ordered an immediate block. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Thursday that the Trump administration is considering an existing law that includes language allowing for tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday, that Russia, so far, has now received a response from Ukraine over its proposal to hold the next round of peace talks in Istanbul next week. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Israel has agreed to a US ceasefire proposal. Hamas said that the terms did not meet its demands, keeping geopolitical risks in play.Traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will step in to support the economy and deliver at least two 25 basis points interest rate cuts by the end of this year. However, Minutes of the FOMC May meeting released on Wednesday revealed a consensus to maintain the wait-and-see stance amid the uncertainty over the economic outlook and trade policies. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the US central bank could return to a situation where interest rates could come down if tariffs are avoided by a deal or otherwise.Moreover, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that two rate cuts this year would make sense if the labor market stays solid and inflation falls, but the range of possible risks is large.Separately, Dallas President Lorie Logan said that risks to employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced. If the balance shifts, the Fed is well prepared to respond, Logan added further.Fed Chair Jerome Powell, on the other hand, met with the President on Thursday and reiterated that decisions on monetary policy are based on the incoming economic data from the US.Hence, Friday's crucial inflation data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD pair. Gold price could extend downward trajectory to overnight swing low, around$3,246-3,245From a technical perspective, the overnight failure near the $3,325-3,326 horizontal resistance and a subsequent slide below the $3,300 mark favor the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, oscillators on the 4-hour chart have again started gaining negative traction and back the case for a further intraday depreciating move for the Gold price. Hence, some follow-through weakness towards the $3,280 static support, en route to the overnight swing low around the $3,246-3,245 region, looks like a distinct possibility. A convincing break below the latter should pave the way for deeper losses and expose the $3,200 round figure.On the flip side, the $3,325-3,326 area might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,345-3,350 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond could negate the negative outlook and trigger a fresh bout of a short-covering move, which should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the next relevant barrier near the $3,432-3,434 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,030.83 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,096.39 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 105,335.90 per tola from INR 106,098.50 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,030.83 10 Grams 90,313.78 Tola 105,335.90 Troy Ounce 280,890.40 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Gold’s daily market movers: Plunging US yields, soft US Dollar boosts XAU/USD US Treasury bond yields are plummeting following the release of US data. The 10-year Treasury note yield dives by four and a half basis points (bps) to 4.30%. Meanwhile, US real yields followed suit, also down four bps at 2.11%. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 24 rose by 240K, up from 226K a week before and exceeding forecasts of 230K. US GDP's second estimate for the first quarter of 2021 came at -0.2% QoQ contraction, up from the preliminary estimate of -0.3%. Federal Reserve minutes cited uncertainty about the potential impact of tariffs on the economy, with officials adopting a patient stance due to high risks of elevated inflation and unemployment. Policymakers acknowledged some stagflation risks as they noted the “Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken.” They added that they are waiting for the “net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies to become clearer.” Data revealed that Gold imports to Switzerland from the US rose to its highest level since at least 2012 in April. Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 49 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, following the soft US Initial Jobless Claims report, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:34 US Dollar Index holds positive ground near 99.50 ahead of US PCE inflation data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, edges higher to near 99.40 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

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Trump administration considered allowing tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days. The focus will be on the US PCE inflation data, due later on Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, edges higher to near 99.40 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. However, the potential upside for the Greenback might be limited, and the DXY is set for a fifth-straight monthly decline on trade and fiscal uncertainty. Thursday's US weekly Jobless Claims came in weaker than expected, which weighs on the US Dollar. The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits for the week ending May 24 rose to 240K, compared to the previous week of 226K (revised from 227K), the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed on Thursday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 230K. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims increased by 26K to reach 1.919M for the week ending May 17.The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Thursday, “US President Donald Trump's administration is considering an existing law that includes language allowing for tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days.” However, the administration has not made a final decision, and the uncertainty around tariffs might contribute to the DXY’s downside in the near term.Money markets suggest that traders have priced in nearly 49 basis points (bps) of rate reductions toward the end of the year, following the soft US Initial Jobless Claims report, according to Prime Market Terminal data. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday that policymakers might cut interest rates twice this year, but rates should remain steady for now to ensure inflation is on track to reach the Fed's 2% target.Traders will take more cues from the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report later on Friday, as it might offer some hints about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy trajectory. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the DXY’s losses. Additionally, the final reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak later in the same day. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

07:24 BoE’s Taylor: I thought we needed to be on a lower monetary policy path
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor told the Financial Times (FT) on Friday, “I thought we needed to be on a lower [monetary] policy path.”

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor told the Financial Times (FT) on Friday, “I thought we needed to be on a lower [monetary] policy path.”Additional quotesI’m seeing more risk piling up on the downside scenario because of global developments.

A trade war is going to be negative for growth.

Higher inflation isn't coming from demand & supply pressures; for most part, coming out of one-time tax & administered price changes.

07:11 WTI remains below $60.50 as US federal appeals court temporarily reinstates Trump tariffs
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $60.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday.

06:39 RBNZ’s Silk: Interest rates are in 2.5%-3.5% neutral band
In a Reuters interview on Friday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor Karen Silk said that “interest rates are in 2.5%-3.5% neutral band.”

05:54 NZD/USD maintains position above 0.5950 after trimming recent gains, US PCE inflation eyed
NZD/USD has trimmed its recent gains following weaker data from New Zealand released on Friday.

05:36 EUR/USD edges lower to mid-1.1300s; looks to US PCE Price Index for fresh impetus
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's solid bounce from the 1.1200 neighborhood, or a one-and-a-half week low, and trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Friday.

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Spot prices currently hover around the mid-1.1300s, down nearly 0.15% for the day, though the downside remains cushioned. Following the previous day's dramatic turnaround, the US Dollar (USD) attracts some dip-buyers amid the flight to safety and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. A federal appeals court paused a separate trade court ruling and reinstated US President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs late Thursday. This adds a layer of uncertainty in the markets and revives demand for traditional safe-haven assets. The USD uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction amid concerns about the worsening US fiscal condition and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs again in 2025. The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to draw some support from US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the imposition of tariffs on the European Union (EU), which contributes to limiting the downside for the EUR/USD pair. Moving ahead, the spotlight turns to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair heading into the weekend. The market focus will then shift to the crucial European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting next Thursday. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

05:34 USD/INR trades with mild losses ahead of India GDP, US PCE releases
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground on Friday, snapping the three-day losing streak. The downbeat US economic data and concerns that a US court ruling would change the outlook for US tariffs undermine the US Dollar (USD).

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The downbeat US economic data and uncertainty of Trump's policies weigh on the US Dollar. Traders brace for India’s Q1 GDP and US April PCE inflation reports, which are due later on Friday.The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground on Friday, snapping the three-day losing streak. The downbeat US economic data and concerns that a US court ruling would change the outlook for US tariffs undermine the US Dollar (USD). A decline in crude oil prices provides some support to the Indian currency, as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. However, the renewed importer USD bids during the month-end could help limit the pair’s losses. Traders will closely watch India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) due later on Friday. On the US docket, the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report will take center stage. Also, the final reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the Chicago of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be published. Indian Rupee remains firm as traders await key economic dataThe Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected India’s real GDP growth at 6.5% for the financial year 2025-26 amid global uncertainties.US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 24 climbed to 240K, compared to the previous week of 226K (revised from 227K), according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 230K. Continuing Jobless Claims increased by 26K to reach 1.919M for the week ending May 17.San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly said late Thursday that the central bank needs a modestly or moderately restrictive policy to keep bringing down inflation.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated the monetary policy is in a good place, adding that risks to employment and inflation goals are ‘roughly balanced.’USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in playThe Indian Rupee trades in positive territory on the day. The negative outlook of the USD/INR remains intact, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline.The initial support level for USD/INR emerges at 84.78, the low of May 26. Red candlesticks below the mentioned level could drag the pair lower to 84.61, the low of May 12. The next downside target to watch is 84.00, the psychological level and the lower limit of the trend channel.On the bright side, the key upside barrier is located in the 85.60-85.70 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the upper boundary of the trend channel. A solid break above this level could open the door for a run toward 86.10, the high of May 22. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:21 Japanese Yen bulls regain control as strong Tokyo CPI reaffirms BoJ rate hike bets
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts strong follow-through buying for the second straight day on Friday and recovers further from a two-week low touched against its American counterpart the previous day.

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A federal appeals court reinstates Trump’s tariffs and revives safe-haven demand. Japan’s upbeat data reaffirms bets for more BoJ rate hikes this year and lends additional support to the JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts strong follow-through buying for the second straight day on Friday and recovers further from a two-week low touched against its American counterpart the previous day. The global risk sentiment took a hit after a federal appeals court on Thursday paused a recent decision to block US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. This is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets and helps revive demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Meanwhile, Japan's upbeat macro data released earlier today, including strong Tokyo consumer inflation figures, backs the case for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (JPY) and lends additional support to the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, consolidates following the previous day's dramatic turnaround amid concerns about the worsening US fiscal situation and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stick to its easing bias. This further contributes to the USD/JPY pair's ongoing downfall. The Japanese Yen draws support from the global flight to safety and hawkish BoJ expectationsA federal appeals court paused a separate trade court ruling and reinstated US President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs late Thursday. This adds a layer of uncertainty in the markets and tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets, which, in turn, benefits the safe-haven Japanese Yen. The Statistics Bureau of Japan reported this Friday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo – Japan's capital city – rose 3.4% from a year earlier in May as compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, a gauge that excludes volatile fresh food climbed a more than two-year high.In fact, the Core CPI came in at 3.6% YoY following a 3.4% rise in April and exceeded median market forecasts for a 3.5% gain. Furthermore, a separate index that strips away the effects of both fresh food and fuel costs rose 3.3% in May in the year to May after a 3.1% rise recorded in April.The Tokyo CPI has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three straight years and pointed to sticky food inflation. This will keep the central bank under pressure to hike rates further, though the uncertainty over US tariffs might force the BoJ to maintain the wait-and-see approach. Separate data showed that Japan’s Industrial Production shrank 0.9% in April, marking a reversal from a 0.2% rise in March. The contraction, however, was smaller than anticipated. Moreover, a survey revealed that manufacturers expect output to increase by 9.0% in May and drop by 3.4% in June.Adding to this, Japan's Retail Sales rose more than expected, by 3.3% YoY in April, compared to 3.1% in the prior month. This comes on top of expectations that bumper wage hikes will boost private consumption and backs the case for further policy normalization by the BoJ. From the US, the second Q1 GDP estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday showed that the economy contracted by 0.2% annualized rate during the January-March period. The reading, however, was better than the 0.3% fall initially expected and consensus forecast. The US Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time, known as Initial Jobless Claims, climbed to 240K for the week ending May 24. This marked a substantial increase from the previous week's revised tally of 226K.The market focus now shifts to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The crucial data will influence market expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the US Dollar and the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY seems vulnerable to extending the downfall further below the 144.00 round figureFrom a technical perspective, the overnight failure near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the monthly peak and the subsequent fall favors the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, negative oscillators on daily/hourly charts suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the 143.45 region will reaffirm the bearish outlook and drag the pair to the 143.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 142.40 intermediate support en route to the 142.10 area, or the monthly low touched on Tuesday.On the flip side, the 144.25-144.30 region now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the USD/JPY pair could aim to reclaim the 145.00 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter should pave the way for a move toward the next relevant hurdle near the 145.65 horizontal zone en route to the 146.00 round figure and the overnight swing high, around the 146.25-146.30 region. Economic Indicator Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu May 29, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.6% Consensus: 3.5% Previous: 3.4% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

05:06 Trump administration considers allowing tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days – WSJ
Citing people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Thursday, “US President Donald Trump's administration is considering an existing law that includes language allowing for tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days.”

Citing people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Thursday, “US President Donald Trump's administration is considering an existing law that includes language allowing for tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days.”“The administration has not made a final decision and it could wait to impose any plans,” the WSJ reported.

04:55 Australian Dollar remains subdued as monthly Retail Sales fall in April
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing its recent gains from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued following the release of disappointing economic data from Australia.

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0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar holds losses following the disappointing economic data released on Friday.Australia’s Retail Sales fell 0.1% MoM in April, against the expectations of remaining consistent at a 0.3% increase.The US Dollar struggles due to trade uncertainty and mixed US economic data.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing its recent gains from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued following the release of disappointing economic data from Australia.Australia’s seasonally adjusted Retail Sales declined by 0.1% month-over-month in April, against the expectations of remaining consistent at 0.3% growth. Meanwhile, the monthly Building Permits fell by 5.7%, against the expected increase of 3.1%.The AUD/USD pair continues to receive downward pressure after a three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan halted US President Donald Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. The federal court found that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful. However, Trump appears unlikely to back down, posting on his social media app Truth Social that he is on a "Mission from God".In Australia’s close trading partner, China, Securities Times reports that analysts believe that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) may boost Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL). This move would offer low-cost, long-term funding to policy banks, which in turn support government-prioritized sectors like housing, urban redevelopment, and major infrastructure projects.Australian Dollar depreciates despite weaker US Dollar amid trade uncertainty, mixed dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second consecutive day and trading at around 99.20 at the time of writing. The US Dollar (USD) depreciated after the release of mixed United States (US) economic data. Traders will likely observe the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report, scheduled to be released on Friday.The preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.3%. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remained consistent at a 3.6% increase quarter-over-quarter in Q1, as expected. Meanwhile, Core PCE climbed 3.4% QoQ against the expected 3.5% increase.The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported that US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 24 rose to 240K, worse than the previous week’s 226K (revised from 227K). This figure came in above the market consensus of 230K. Additionally, Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 26K to reach 1.919M for the week ending May 17.Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Minutes for the latest policy meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that Federal Reserve (Fed) officials broadly agreed that heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments. Fed officials emphasized the need to keep interest rates unchanged for some time, as recent policy shifts cloud the US economic outlook.The US fiscal deficit could increase further when Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” is on the way to the Senate floor for voting, increasing the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. Higher bond yields can keep borrowing costs higher for consumers, businesses, and governments. Trump’s bill is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, as it would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).US Senator Ron Johnson told CNN on Sunday that "I think we have enough votes to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit.” Johnson added, “My primary focus now is spending. This is completely unacceptable. Current projections are a $2.2 trillion per year deficit.”Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, following similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.The Trump administration has halted some sales of jet engines, semiconductors, and certain chemicals to China. The New York Times cited two familiar sources saying that this action is a response to China’s recent export restrictions on exports of critical minerals to the US.The AUD could face challenges as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver more rate cuts in the upcoming policy meetings. The central bank acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and warned that US-China trade barriers pose downside risks to economic growth. Governor Michele Bullock stated that the RBA is prepared to take additional action if the economic outlook deteriorates sharply, raising the prospect of future rate cuts.Australian Dollar remains below nine-day EMA near 0.6450 barrierThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6430 on Friday, indicating a potential of weakening bullish bias. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the pair is hovering around the ascending channel’s lower boundary. The short-term price momentum weakens as the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish bias is still active.The AUD/USD pair could test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6439, followed by the 0.6537, a six-month high recorded on May 26. A breach above this crucial resistance zone could revive the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6640.On the downside, a break below the channel could lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6385. A breach below this level could weaken the medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to approach 0.5914, the lowest since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.03% -0.27% 0.07% 0.22% -0.10% -0.11% EUR -0.07% -0.02% -0.38% -0.01% 0.18% 0.15% -0.18% GBP -0.03% 0.02% -0.35% 0.02% 0.21% 0.00% -0.15% JPY 0.27% 0.38% 0.35% 0.34% 0.58% 0.33% 0.22% CAD -0.07% 0.00% -0.02% -0.34% 0.23% -0.04% -0.18% AUD -0.22% -0.18% -0.21% -0.58% -0.23% -0.03% -0.36% NZD 0.10% -0.15% -0.00% -0.33% 0.04% 0.03% -0.33% CHF 0.11% 0.18% 0.15% -0.22% 0.18% 0.36% 0.33% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in Australia. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri May 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -0.1% Consensus: 0.3% Previous: 0.3% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The primary gauge of Australia’s consumer spending, the Retail Sales, is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) about 35 days after the month ends. It accounts for approximately 80% of total retail turnover in the country and, therefore, has a significant bearing on inflation and GDP. This leading indicator has a direct correlation with inflation and the growth prospects, impacting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rates decision and AUD valuation. The stats bureau uses the forward factor method, ensuring that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.

04:41 Japan’s Trade Negotiator Akazawa plans to meet Bessent for trade talks
Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that he “plans to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others for Japan-US tariff talks.”

Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that he “plans to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others for Japan-US tariff talks.”Further commentsWill take appropriate actions while gathering necessary information when asked about US court blocking Trump’s tariffs.

Mutual trust deepening between PM Ishiba and President Trump through phone talks two weeks in row.

04:33 Australia’s Retail Sales decline 0.1% MoM in April vs. 0.3% expected
Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, declined 0.1% MoM in April, compared to a rise of 0.3% in March, the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Friday.

04:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.5%) in April
Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.5%) in April

04:30 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in April: Actual (-0.1%)
Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in April: Actual (-0.1%)

04:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) increased to 6.7% in April from previous 6.5%
Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) increased to 6.7% in April from previous 6.5%

04:30 Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -5.7%, below expectations (3.1%) in April
Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -5.7%, below expectations (3.1%) in April

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1848 vs. 7.1907 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1848 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1907 and 7.1859 Reuters estimate.

04:05 USD/CAD softens to near 1.3800 ahead of US PCE, Canadian GDP releases
The USD/CAD pair trades in a negative territory around 1.3810 during the early Asian session on Friday. The concerns that a US court ruling would change the outlook for US tariffs weigh on the Greenback.

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US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 240K last week.The US PCE inflation and Canadian GDP reports will be the highlights later on Friday. The USD/CAD pair trades in a negative territory around 1.3810 during the early Asian session on Friday. The concerns that a US court ruling would change the outlook for US tariffs weigh on the Greenback. Investors will closely monitor the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which are due later on Friday. A federal appeals court late Thursday temporarily paused a sweeping ruling against US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs while it takes more time to consider the administration’s request for a longer-lasting hold. The Trump administration’s unpredictable policy could exert some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) in the near term. Furthermore, the downbeat US economic data, including US Initial Jobless Claims, drag the USD lower. The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits for the week ending May 24 climbed to 240K, compared to the previous week of 226K (revised from 227K), the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed on Thursday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 230K. Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices might undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and help limit the pair’s losses. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

03:45 Fed's Logan: Monetary policy in a good place
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gave opening remarks and participated in a moderated conversation before the Greater Waco Member Appreciation event.

03:36 BoJ’s Ueda: We are aware of firm's aggressive price, wage-setting behavior continuing
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the BoJ's financial position won't affect its short-term rate decision, which will focus on achieving the price target.

02:50 Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) increased to 0.5% in April from previous -1.2%
Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) increased to 0.5% in April from previous -1.2%

02:50 Japan Retail Trade (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (3.1%) in April
Japan Retail Trade (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (3.1%) in April

02:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 0.7% (April) vs previous 1%
Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 0.7% (April) vs previous 1%

02:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (-1.4%) in April: Actual (-0.9%)
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (-1.4%) in April: Actual (-0.9%)

02:48 Fed's Daly: Need modestly or moderately restrictive policy to keep bringing inflation down
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly said late Thursday that the central bank needs modestly or moderately restrictive policy to keep bringing down inflation.

02:40 Japanese life insurers cut protection against stronger Yen to fresh 14-year low - Bloomberg
Japanese life insurers cut protection for their foreign assets against a stronger Japanese Yen (JPY) to a fresh 14-year low, signaling subdued expectations of a sustained rally in the JPY, per Bloomberg.

02:33 Japan's Tokyo CPI inflation declines to 3.4% YoY in May
The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose 3.4% YoY as compared to 3.5% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose 3.4% YoY as compared to 3.5% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

02:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 3.5% to 3.4% in May
Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 3.5% to 3.4% in May

02:30 Japan Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (2.5%) in April
Japan Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (2.5%) in April

02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above forecasts (3.5%) in May: Actual (3.6%)
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above forecasts (3.5%) in May: Actual (3.6%)

02:30 Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets forecasts (1.26) in April
Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets forecasts (1.26) in April

02:15 AUD/USD gathers strength to near 0.6450 amid renewed tariff concerns
The AUD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.6445 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) due to the resurgence of trade uncertainty and disappointing US economic data.

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The renewed tariff concerns weigh on the US Dollar. Rising bets of further RBA rate cuts might cap the pair’s upside. The AUD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.6445 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) due to the resurgence of trade uncertainty and disappointing US economic data. The US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report Will be in the spotlight later on Friday. A US federal court on Wednesday blocked US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect. A federal trade court ruled Trump didn't have the authority to impose across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the US than they buy. However, a federal appeals court late Thursday temporarily paused a sweeping ruling against Trump’s global tariffs while it takes more time to consider the administration’s request for a longer-lasting hold. The uncertainty of Trump's policies and concerns that tariffs will slow the economy drag the Greenback lower and create a tailwind for the pair.Data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday showed that US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 24 climbed to 240K, compared to the previous week of 226K (revised from 227K). This figure came in above the market consensus of 230K. Additionally, Continuing Jobless Claims increased by 26K to reach 1.919M for the week ending May 17.On the other hand, the expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver more rate cuts in the upcoming policy meetings could undermine the Aussie. The RBA acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and warned that US-China trade barriers pose downside risks to economic growth. RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that the central bank will take additional action if the economic outlook worsens, raising the chance of further rate cuts. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:13 GBP/USD recovers 1.35 ahead of key US inflation data
GBP/USD made a choppy relief rally on Thursday, jumping back into the 1.3500 handle as markets gear up for the latest batch of United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation figures due on Friday.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:00 South Korea Service Sector Output climbed from previous -0.3% to -0.1% in April
South Korea Service Sector Output climbed from previous -0.3% to -0.1% in April

02:00 South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) above expectations (4.2%) in April: Actual (4.9%)
South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) above expectations (4.2%) in April: Actual (4.9%)

02:00 South Korea Industrial Output Growth below expectations (0.5%) in April: Actual (-0.9%)
South Korea Industrial Output Growth below expectations (0.5%) in April: Actual (-0.9%)

01:42 US Treasury Secretary Bessent: We will stabilize debt-to-GDP by 2028
United States (US) Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent stated the Trump administration's intention to "stabilize" the US's debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by 2028, and insisted that trade agreements will be announced in the weeks ahead.

United States (US) Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent stated the Trump administration's intention to "stabilize" the US's debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by 2028, and insisted that trade agreements will be announced in the weeks ahead.President Donald Trump was elected on a campaign platform to have the US's debt issue resolved "within months", and White House staffers have been noting that trade deals that have been strong-armed out of other countries by Trump tariffs are "days away" for weeks.Key highlightsPresident can establish trade agenda for the United States.

courts obstructing tariff revenue.

trading partners approaching us in good faith

trading partners approaching us positively, have observed no shift in their stances in the past 48 hours

Couple of large deals are near.

Japanese delegation visiting office Monday.

Judiciary has no right to comment on tariffs.

Expect China discussions to continue in coming weeks.

Considers a conversation between Trump and Xi in the future.

China negotiations bit slow.

Tariffs not distinct from budget.

Anticipate additional China discussions in upcoming weeks.

European Union in movement as well.

Predicts federal deficit will be smaller year on year than last.

Elon Musk completed significant tasks, DOGE will not end with Elon.

Treasury includes several Department of Government Employees on a permanent basis.

By 2028, we will stabilize debt to gross domestic product.

Sympathetic to deficit hawks.

01:35 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Struggles at 93.00 as bears gain steam
AUD/JPY loses some ground on Thursday ahead of the beginning of Friday’s Asian session, falls over 0.19%, below the 93.00 figure, yet retains its sideways bias as the cross pair remains above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo).

01:00 New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 98.3 to 92.9 in May
New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 98.3 to 92.9 in May

00:28 BoE's Bailey: The UK's needs, not tariffs and trade, will be key driver for UK rates
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey noted late on Thursday that the primary drivers behind the BoE's main reference rate remains the economic needs of the United Kingdom (UK), not external drivers such as the Trump administration's tariff policies.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey noted late on Thursday that the primary drivers behind the BoE's main reference rate remains the economic needs of the United Kingdom (UK), not external drivers such as the Trump administration's tariff policies.Key highlightsRaising the UK's potential growth rate critical.

We take a gradual and careful approach as the economy is hard to read.

Spend a lot of time examining risks from market fragilities, including bonds.

Not useful to ask if dollar will remain reserve currency, may see some rebalancing but not anywhere near dollar losing its status.

Rate cuts uncertainty prevalent.

UK labour market data pretty much in line with our expectations.

Evidence on United Kingdom is in line with our expectations.

United Kingdom issues are key drivers of policy.

UK needs, not tariffs and trade, will be key driver for UK rates.

Strengthening in food inflation but not alone in that.

Slowing wage increase trend still remains.

Less volatile segments of United Kingdom inflation are gradually decreasing, very slowly.

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Forex News Timeline

15:42 Canada real GDP grows 2.2% in first quarter vs. 1.7% expected Canada's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.5% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This reading matched the 0.5% expansion recorded in the last quarter of 2024.

15:31 United States Wholesale Inventories came in at 0% below forecasts (0.4%) in April United States Wholesale Inventories came in at 0% below forecasts (0.4%) in April

15:31 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.1%) in April United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.1%) in April

15:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.1%, below expectations (2.2%) in April United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.1%, below expectations (2.2%) in April

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in March Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in March

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.2%, above expectations (1.7%) in 1Q Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.2%, above expectations (1.7%) in 1Q

15:30 United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-87.62B, above expectations ($-141.5B) in April United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-87.62B, above expectations ($-141.5B) in April

15:30 United States Personal Spending meets forecasts (0.2%) in April United States Personal Spending meets forecasts (0.2%) in April

15:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in April United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in April

15:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.5%) in April United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.5%) in April

15:30 United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.3%) in April United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.3%) in April

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in 1Q Canada Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in 1Q

15:19 US Pres. Trump: China has totally violated its agreement with US In a post published on Truth Social on Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that China has violated its agreement with the US.

15:04 Germany annual CPI inflation holds steady at 2.1% as forecast Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), held steady at 2.1% on a yearly basis in May, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Friday. This reading came in line with the market expectation.

15:03 India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR climbed from previous 13468.52B to 15772.7B in March India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR climbed from previous 13468.52B to 15772.7B in March

15:01 GBP quietly consolidating recent push to multi-year high – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, trading down a modest 0.1% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.1%) in May Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.1%) in May

15:00 Mexico Jobless Rate s.a remains at 2.6% in April Mexico Jobless Rate s.a remains at 2.6% in April

15:00 Brazil Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.9% below forecasts (3.2%) in 1Q Brazil Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.9% below forecasts (3.2%) in 1Q

15:00 South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) dipped from previous 24.77B to 14.08B in April South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) dipped from previous 24.77B to 14.08B in April

15:00 Mexico Jobless Rate increased to 2.5% in April from previous 2.2% Mexico Jobless Rate increased to 2.5% in April from previous 2.2%

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0.1%) in May Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0.1%) in May

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in May Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in May

15:00 Brazil Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (1.4%) in 1Q Brazil Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (1.4%) in 1Q

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in May Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in May

14:57 CAD steady in quiet trade – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session. Broader market sentiment is relatively neutral, with European stocks a little firmer while US equity futures are currently trading lower.

14:44 US gasoline demand strong ahead of summer driving season – Commerzbank Yesterday's weekly US inventory report halted the slide on the oil market, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

14:35 EUR soft in quiet trade – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in generally quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:31 India Bank Loan Growth declined to 9.8% in May 12 from previous 9.9% India Bank Loan Growth declined to 9.8% in May 12 from previous 9.9%

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD up to $692.72B in May 19 from previous $685.73B India FX Reserves, USD up to $692.72B in May 19 from previous $685.73B

14:15 No giving in from Kazakhstan: Will other key producers follow suit? – Commerzbank The press statement following Wednesday's OPEC+ meeting was extremely short.

14:08 Gold declines as US Dollar rebounds after Appeals court suspends tariff ban Gold price (XAU/USD) slides to near $3,290 during European trading hours on Friday, following a strong upside move the previous day.

14:04 USD/JPY: Oversold conditions indicate that any decline is unlikely to reach 142.80 – UOB Group Sharp drop in US Dollar (USD) could extend against Japanese Yen (JPY); oversold conditions indicate that any decline is unlikely to reach 142.80.

13:46 Oil price caught between OPEC and geopolitics – Commerzbank The Oil market is likely to be eagerly awaiting tomorrow's decision by the eight OPEC+ countries that have voluntarily cut their production.

13:38 AUD/USD retreats to levels near 0.6400 ahead with US inflation in the spotlight The Aussie Dollar is retracing Thursday’s gains on Friday, with investors wary of holding large US Dollar shorts ahead of the release of US PCE inflation data.

13:31 India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) above expectations (6.7%) in 1Q: Actual (7.4%) India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) above expectations (6.7%) in 1Q: Actual (7.4%)

13:25 Italy Producer Price Index (YoY): 2.6% (April) vs previous 3.9% Italy Producer Price Index (YoY): 2.6% (April) vs previous 3.9%

13:25 Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) up to -2.2% in April from previous -2.4% Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) up to -2.2% in April from previous -2.4%

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.5%) in 1Q Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.5%) in 1Q

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with expectations (1.6%) in 1Q Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with expectations (1.6%) in 1Q

12:55 JPY: Tokyo inflation data warns of July BoJ rate hike – ING Tokyo May inflation data surprised on the upside, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:48 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435 for now – UOB Group There is scope for the sharp rally to extend; deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1330/1.1415.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:02 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in May Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in May

12:02 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (1.7%) in May Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (1.7%) in May

12:02 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.9%) in May Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.9%) in May

12:02 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (0%) in May Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (0%) in May

12:01 Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) down to 8.3% in April from previous 9% Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) down to 8.3% in April from previous 9%

12:00 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 0.5% in April Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 0.5% in April

12:00 Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 0.3% (March) vs previous 4.6% Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 0.3% (March) vs previous 4.6%

11:36 ECB’s Panetta: Reduced room to cut rates further, but macro outlook remains weak European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Fabio Panetta said on Friday that there is a “reduced room to cut rates further, but the macro outlook remains weak and trade tensions could worsen it.”

11:10 Pound Sterling corrects against US Dollar after US court reinstates Trump tariffs The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops to near 1.3475 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European trading session.

11:07 Spain Current Account Balance: €1.42B (March) vs previous €2.31B Spain Current Account Balance: €1.42B (March) vs previous €2.31B

11:04 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to 0% in May Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to 0% in May

11:04 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY): 2.2% (May) Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY): 2.2% (May)

11:04 Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.3% in May Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.3% in May

11:04 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) declined to 0% in May from previous 0.5% Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) declined to 0% in May from previous 0.5%

11:04 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.5% Germany Saxony CPI (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.5%

11:04 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) down to 2.3% in May from previous 2.4% Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) down to 2.3% in May from previous 2.4%

11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to 0.2% in May Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to 0.2% in May

11:01 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) climbed from previous 3.7% to 3.8% in April Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) climbed from previous 3.7% to 3.8% in April

11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) rose from previous 1.8% to 2% in May Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) rose from previous 1.8% to 2% in May

11:00 Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in April: Actual (1.9%) Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in April: Actual (1.9%)

11:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 3.9% above expectations (3.7%) in April Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 3.9% above expectations (3.7%) in April

11:00 Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.3%) in 1Q Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.3%) in 1Q

11:00 Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 2.1% (May) Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY): 2.1% (May)

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to 0.1% in May Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) fell from previous 0.4% to 0.1% in May

10:59 GBP/JPY trades above 194.00 after paring recent losses GBP/JPY extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 194.00 during the European hours on Friday.

10:56 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.4% to 2.2% in May Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.4% to 2.2% in May

10:56 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.5% to -0.1% in May Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.5% to -0.1% in May

10:40 WTI drops to levels near $60.00 as global trade uncertainty returns WTI Oil prices reversed gains on Thursday, after the US Court of Appeals reversed a sentence from a lower court to block Trump's trade tariffs.

10:14 USD/CAD sticks to modest intraday gains above 1.3800 ahead of US PCE data The USD/CAD pair regains positive traction on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the 1.3860 area, or a one-week high.

10:00 USD/CHF extends the decline below 0.8250, US PCE data in focus The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.8230 during the early European session on Friday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) due to persistent trade-related uncertainties.

10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 1.9% in May from previous 2.2% Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 1.9% in May from previous 2.2%

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in May Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in May

10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.6% Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0% (May) vs previous 0.6%

10:00 Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) down to -0.2% in April from previous 0.8% Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) down to -0.2% in April from previous 0.8%

10:00 Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.9% in April from previous 0% Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.9% in April from previous 0%