Forex News Timeline

Thursday, May 29, 2025

Gold price bounced off weekly lows of $3,245 and rose past $3,300 on Thursday, helped by a softer jobs report in the United States (US), while markets cheered a US court decision to block US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,318 and gains 0.94%.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,318 and gains 0.94%.The US Department of Labor revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment claims, exceeded estimates and the prior week’s report.The report adds pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease policy as the risk of high unemployment has increased. This, along with the confirmation of a contraction in the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q1 2025, sent the US Dollar into a tailspin, which boosted the prospects of the golden metal.Late on Wednesday, Bloomberg revealed that the US Court of International Trade, composed of a three-judge panel, declared that the Trump administration “had wrongly invoked a 1977 law in imposing his Liberation Day tariffs on dozens of countries and they were therefore illegal.”The US court decision freed Mexico, Canada and China from previously imposed tariffs, imposed over the security of the US border and fentanyl trafficking. However, tariffs on aluminum, autos and steel remain unaffected. The Trump administration is appealing the ruling, and Goldman Sachs expects broad tariff policy to remain on the books via other legal means.The Trump blockage headline prompted a rally on global equities. Gold tumbled to a weekly low, while the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the Greenback’s value, reached a weekly high of 100.54.The DXY, which tracks the US Dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies, tumbles 0.50% to 99.32.This week, Bullion traders are eyeing the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.Gold’s daily market movers: Plunging US yields, soft US Dollar boosts XAU/USDUS Treasury bond yields are plummeting following the release of US data. The 10-year Treasury note yield dives by four and a half basis points (bps) to 4.30%. Meanwhile, US real yields followed suit, also down four bps at 2.11%.US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 24 rose by 240K, up from 226K a week before and exceeding forecasts of 230K.US GDP's second estimate for the first quarter of 2021 came at -0.2% QoQ contraction, up from the preliminary estimate of -0.3%.Federal Reserve minutes cited uncertainty about the potential impact of tariffs on the economy, with officials adopting a patient stance due to high risks of elevated inflation and unemployment.Policymakers acknowledged some stagflation risks as they noted the “Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken.” They added that they are waiting for the “net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies to become clearer.”Data revealed that Gold imports to Switzerland from the US rose to its highest level since at least 2012 in April.Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 49 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, following the soft US Initial Jobless Claims report, according to Prime Market Terminal data.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price regains $3,300, poised to test $3,350Gold price resumed its uptrend, and as of writing, spot prices are near the May 28 daily high of $3,325. A daily close above the latter is needed, so XAU/USD could be poised to challenge $3,350. If surpassed, the next key resistance levels are $3,400 and the May 7 swing high of $3,438. If achieved, Gold’s next goal would be $3,500.On the downside, Gold tumbling below $3,300 opens the path to challenge $3,250. Once cleared, a move toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,217 is on the cards. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

United States 7-Year Note Auction up to 4.194% from previous 4.123%

According to a statement by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Fed Chair Jerome Powell met with United States (US) President Donald Trump on Thursday, where the head of the Fed reiterated that the Fed's decisions on monetary policy are based on trackable data from the US economy.

According to a statement by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Fed Chair Jerome Powell met with United States (US) President Donald Trump on Thursday, where the head of the Fed reiterated that the Fed's decisions on monetary policy are based on trackable data from the US economy. Donald Trump has been writhing on social media for months, desiring sharp rate cuts from the Fed as a low rate environment tends to make federal debt cheaper, something that the Trump administration's budget policies will add plenty of over the next ten years.Fed highlightsFed Chair Powell met with Trump at White House today.
Powell did not discuss expectations for monetary policy.
Powell said his policy will depend on incoming economic information.Market reactionMarkets remain broadly nonplussed on Thursday after US federal courts knocked down President Trump's tariffs overnight. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is sharply lower, falling back below 100.00 and testing an intraday floor near 99.35.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) whipsawed through the overnight session and into Wednesday’s trading window, with investors piling back into the tech rally after Nvidia (NVDA) posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings in Q1.

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Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -2.795M below forecasts (1M) in May 23

United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.22% to 4.215%

On Thursday, the Banco de México (Banxico) revealed its latest meeting minutes, in which the central bank decided to lower interest rates by 50 basis points to 8.50% at its May 15 meeting.

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The release of the minutes had barely a minimal impact so far on the USD/MXN pair, which trades with losses of 0.17% down at 19.35, weighed by broad US Dollar weakness.Key QuotesAll members agreed that the period between monetary policy decisions continued to be characterized by a high uncertainty generated by the various trade policy announcements worldwide.Most members expressed that the changes in trade policy have brought along a high level of uncertainty to the global outlook.All members expressed that gross fixed investment in Mexico intensified its downward trend.Most members mentioned that Mexican economic activity is expected to continue showing weakness.Most members indicated that the balance of risks for economic activity remains biased to the downside. All members highlighted the risks associated with a possible intensification of uncertainty regarding the US trade policySome members indicated that progress towards central banks’ inflation targets is expected to continue.All members noted that the US Dollar depreciated across the board against other currencies. Banxico FAQs What is the Bank of Mexico? The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%. How does the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy influence the Mexican Peso? The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor. How often does the Bank of Mexico meet during the year? Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that they could return to a situation where interest rates could come down if tariffs are avoided by a deal of otherwise, per Reuters.

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United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (99B) in May 23: Actual (101B)

Crude markets only have a very narrow path towards higher prices. In the imminent term, CTA selling activity will weigh on price action into the OPEC meeting.

Crude markets only have a very narrow path towards higher prices. In the imminent term, CTA selling activity will weigh on price action into the OPEC meeting. This selling activity is likely to be less significant than that which we expect in gold markets, but should weigh on prices nonetheless, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Crude prices vulnerable despite strong demand as supply returns"Ultimately, crude markets will struggle to absorb additional barrels from OPEC+ over the coming months, which we argue reflects a strategic pivot in policy driven by an attempt to a) test US shale production; b) improve compliance; and most importantly c) regain the supply-side leverage required to combat lower Oil prices in the event of a slowdown in demand." "Energy demand remains resilient, US shale production is peaking, Venezuelan export licenses have expired, and geopolitical risks surrounding Iran remain elevated – all of which will likely act as a shock absorber to lower prices.""Still, OPEC+ was ultimately forced into this strategic pivot, and remains emboldened to bring these barrels back during seasonally favorable months; markets will struggle to absorb these barrels, particularly following the summer months. The path to sustainably higher prices remains extremely narrow."

BoC to keep the policy rate on hold at its 4 June meeting (instead of a 25bps cut). With the policy rate at neutral, BoC has been unwilling to ease more unless growth goes further south.

BoC to keep the policy rate on hold at its 4 June meeting (instead of a 25bps cut). With the policy rate at neutral, BoC has been unwilling to ease more unless growth goes further south. There should be two more 25bps cuts for the remainder of 2025 as growth softness supports lower rates, Standard Chartered's economist Dan Pan reports. Looking for a more negative output gap"We now expect Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep the policy rate on hold at 2.75% at its 4 June meeting (instead of a 25bps cut). The central bank kept the policy rate unchanged at its April meeting, showing a reluctance to endorse further rate cuts until it has more information on tariffs and their impact on the economy. Tariff de-escalation since then has likely reduced downside risks to growth and limited the urgency for an imminent rate cut, in our view. Given that the policy rate is at the middle of the BoC’s neutral estimates, it may prefer to extend the pause to avoid overstimulating the economy. The acceleration of core inflation measurements since the beginning of the year also likely warrants additional caution against premature rate cuts.""Labour-market softness skews risks towards additional easing. The BoC has maintained that stronger-than-expected growth at end-2024 has resulted a smaller output gap and reduced the need for additional easing. But if growth data shows a material deterioration, the BoC may quickly revert to cutting as early as the June meeting. Our assessment is that the data so far may not indicate sufficient growth weakness to bolster the case for immediate easing, but that ongoing economic uncertainty is likely to weigh gradually on growth in the coming months. This should provide enough economic slack for the BoC to resume easing in Q3, especially if core inflation resumes its downtrend. We continue to expect two more 25bps rate cuts for the rest of the year, taking the year-end rate to 2.25%."

The NZD/USD pair advances to near 0.5990 during North American trading hours on Thursday after recovering initial losses.

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The Kiwi pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) turns upside down in the aftermath of the permanent injunction of the tariff policy imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump.On Wednesday, the US Court of International Trade accused Donald Trump of abusing the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify his tariff agenda. The court blamed Trump for claiming extra power to impose tariffs such as reciprocal, fentanyl, and border negligence without the Congressional vote under the cover of “national emergency”.Therefore, the court has ordered the administration to dissolve tariffs imposed within 10 days, to which the White House has appealed, according to a report from the Associated Press (AP).The event came in as positive for the US Dollar Index (DXY), which rallied almost 1% to near 100.50. However, it gives back initial gains and slides to near 99.50. The USD Index weakens as investors reassess the likely consequences of the US court banning Trump tariffs. Market experts believe that this will dampen business confidence and force owners to redesign their manufacturing and procurement plans.Though the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms the US Dollar, its outlook is uncertain as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has signaled a deeper monetary policy expansion cycle.  US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar. ban on

CTAs will still buy Gold regardless of any scenario this coming week. We expect imminent algo buying activity to persist and accelerate into NFP, potentially tallying up to a massive +30% of algos' max size, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

CTAs will still buy Gold regardless of any scenario this coming week. We expect imminent algo buying activity to persist and accelerate into NFP, potentially tallying up to a massive +30% of algos' max size, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Silver buying gathers momentum"Western funds surprisingly don't have much Gold to sell with macro funds largely net flat in the yellow metal, and considering that ETF inflows have been bolstered by a change in strategic asset allocations which mitigate the scope for outflows." "This reflects a combination of re-levering from long/short quant funds following the aftershock from Liberation day, along with vol-control and rising signal strength. Only retail ETF holders are vulnerable, but persistent central bank buying activity should be sufficient to offset outflows from this cohort." "Recent signs of selling exhaustion from both Chinese and Western ETFs suggest that the window has now opened for Gold prices to strengthen as a function of positioning. This session, we also expect large-scale buying activity in Silver to be additionally supported by improving trend signals."

The Indian Rupee (INR) is showing signs of stability against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the USD/INR pair trading near 85.41. This level reflects consolidation within a broader correction range following the volatile price action in May. 

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USD/INR monthly chart
This was followed by a two-month retracement that reset RSI below 70. In May, bullish momentum returned, briefly driving the pair to a new record high of 93.27 before sellers aggressively reversed the move.Prices have since pulled back and are currently holding just above the 20-month SMA at 84.23. This level, along with the May low of  83.69, forms a strong support zone. If it holds, the long-term uptrend remains intact; if breached, the risk of a broader reversal increases. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.

United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) dipped from previous -0.6% to -2.5% in April

United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) registered at -6.3%, below expectations (-1%) in April

According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the advanced GDP Growth Rate is expected to have contracted by 0.1% in the January-March period. The readings show a marked pullback from the prior quarter’s 2.4% expansion.

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South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (7.25%)

Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $678.5B vs $667.5B

US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance climbed to 240K for the week ending May 24, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print came in above initial estimates and the previous week's revised tally of 226K (from 227K).

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Canada Current Account registered at -2.13B above expectations (-3.25B) in 1Q

United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 240K, above expectations (230K) in May 23

United States Continuing Jobless Claims above forecasts (1.9M) in May 16: Actual (1.919M)

United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index in line with forecasts (3.7%) in 1Q

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average down to 230.75K in May 23 from previous 231.5K

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) came in at 3.4% below forecasts (3.5%) in 1Q

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) in line with forecasts (3.6%) in 1Q

United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at -0.2%, above expectations (-0.3%) in 1Q

Canada Current Account came in at -2.1B, above forecasts (-3.25B) in 1Q

In an interview with Fox Business Network on Thursday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said that he is confident in the success of the tariff ruling appeal, per Reuters.

In an interview with Fox Business Network on Thursday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said that he is confident in the success of the tariff ruling appeal, per Reuters.The Court of International Trade announced late Wednesday that US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs will be blocked from going into effect, explaining that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from the US' trading partners.Hassett further noted that the tariff ruling will not affect ongoing trade deals and added that three deals are basically done.Market reactionThe US Dollar (USD) Index edged slightly lower with the immediate reaction to these remarks and was last seen losing 0.05% on the day at 99.82.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) swings between mild gains and losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as markets digest a court ruling that blocks US President Donald Trump from imposing tariffs on imports. 

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While the decision lifted global risk sentiment, it also boosted the US Dollar and highlighted ongoing uncertainty around US-Mexico trade policy, further weighing on the peso.Also supporting the US Dollar, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Minutes from the May meeting revealed on Wednesday that policymakers are prepared to keep interest rates elevated for longer if inflation pressures persist. At the same time, Banco de México’s (Banxico) Quarterly Report flagged rising domestic recession risks, cutting the 2025 GDP growth forecast sharply to 0.1% and reinforcing a cautious policy outlook. On Thursday, key economic releases for the US include the second estimate of US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which are expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, in Mexico, attention shifts to the Bank of Mexico’s meeting Minutes, which are expected to provide deeper insight into policymakers’ thinking following the recent downgrade in growth projections. Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN awaits signs from Banxico At the May meeting, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja stated that the governing board estimates it could continue calibrating the monetary stance and consider adjusting it by a similar amount as the May 50-bps cut. The Meeting Minutes, to be released at 15:00 GMT, may provide additional clues around Banxico’s next move in their attempt to balance inflation and economic growth.On Wednesday, the tone of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes aligned with market expectations, as policymakers emphasized a need to assess the full impact of trade measures and inflationary pressures before adjusting policy. “Participants agreed that uncertainty about the outlook had increased and it was appropriate to take a cautious approach to monetary policy,” the Minutes said.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing in a 48.3% chance of a rate cut in September. For June and July meetings, the expectation is that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.The Banxico Q1 Quarterly Report for January-March acknowledged rising recession risks for the Mexican economy, downgrading the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 0.6% to 0.1%. Despite the downgrade, the central bank maintained a cautious policy stance. It stated, “The reference rate is expected to remain in restrictive territory for an extended period,” suggesting that future cuts will be gradual and data-dependent. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figures for April – the Fed's preferred inflation measure – and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures are both scheduled for release on Friday. With the Fed reiterating its 'data-dependent' stance, these data points are crucial for understanding inflation and consumer sentiment. Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN finds support at 19.40USD/MXN is trying to break decisively above prior technical resistance at 19.40, a level that has been limiting the pair's upside potential over recent days.In anticipation of Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, the US Dollar strengthened against the Peso, allowing it to clear prior trendline resistance at 19.29 and the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 19.34.With these levels now coming into play as support, bulls are gearing up for a retest of the 20-day SMA at 19.45. A break of this level and of the April 23 low at 19.47 could open the door for 19.58, which aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement (Fib) level of the October-February move.USD/MXN daily chart
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The US Dollar rallied earlier on Thursday, to find sellers at the 0.8345 area.

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The US Dollar rallied earlier on Thursday, to find sellers at the 0.8345 area. The pair is showing marginal gains on the daily chart, but a test of the 0.8265 support is on the cards, with the Dollar retreating against its main peers.

A sentence from a US federal court blocking Trump’s tariffs on US trade partners boosted demand for the US Dollar in a relief rally earlier today. The Greenback, however, lost momentum as the market digested the news, with investors increasingly cautious ahead of US GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims releases.USD/CHF Technical analysis: The immediate trend remains positiveFrom a technical perspective, the immediate USD/CHF bias remains positive, although the 4-hour RSI is approaching the key 50 level that divides the bullish from the bearish territory.

The break above the descending channel and the “Morning Star” candle formation in the daily chart suggest that the pair might have set a bottom at the 0.8190 area and is heading higher.

Resistance levels are at the May 20 high, 0.8365 and the May 16 high, at 0.8400. On the downside, a break of the mentioned 0.8265   and the reverse trendline, now at 0.8215, would cancel this view.USD/CHF 4-Hour Chart Swiss Franc PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% 0.02% 0.09% -0.06% -0.20% 0.03% 0.16% EUR -0.10% -0.07% 0.02% -0.16% -0.25% -0.07% 0.05% GBP -0.02% 0.07% 0.08% -0.08% -0.16% 0.00% 0.04% JPY -0.09% -0.02% -0.08% -0.16% -0.33% -0.11% -0.04% CAD 0.06% 0.16% 0.08% 0.16% -0.19% 0.10% 0.12% AUD 0.20% 0.25% 0.16% 0.33% 0.19% 0.18% 0.20% NZD -0.03% 0.07% 0.00% 0.11% -0.10% -0.18% 0.02% CHF -0.16% -0.05% -0.04% 0.04% -0.12% -0.20% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming the G10 currencies with a modest 0.2% decline vs. the US Dollar (USD), entering Thursday’s NA session with an impressive recovery from earlier sentiment-driven losses related to headlines on trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming the G10 currencies with a modest 0.2% decline vs. the US Dollar (USD), entering Thursday’s NA session with an impressive recovery from earlier sentiment-driven losses related to headlines on trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Japan’s bond markets look to have calmed"The topic is likely to remain dominant as Japan’s top trade negotiator arrives in DC for a fourth round of talks, with intentions to continue discussions despite the latest US court ruling that declared tariffs illegal." "Japan’s bond markets look to have calmed somewhat and spreads are steady, offering some space for domestic fundamentals to drive near-term price action as we note a heavy release calendar that includes employment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, and retail sales data."

The USD/JPY pair retreats to near 144.90 during European trading hours on Thursday after facing stiff resistance above 146.00.

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The pair gives up early gains as the US Dollar falls back after investors reassessed the consequences of the United States (US) court’s decision to strike down the tariff policy by President Donald Trump. However, the White House has appealed the decision.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders early gains and flattens around 99.90.On Wednesday, the US Court of International Trade accused Trump of overstepping his authority to fulfill his tariff agenda. The court stated that Trump has violated the constitutional limit by exercising national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to fix trade imbalances. According to a report from the Associated Press (AP), longstanding trade deficits do not constitute a sudden emergency.The event is expected to dampen the business confidence as owners started developing procurement and production strategies, assuming that tariffs will be persistent. Trump’s intention to impose tariffs on his trading partners also aimed to boost manufacturing capacities domestically.Meanwhile, investors also look cues about whether the White House will keep negotiating trade deals with its trading partners.Japan’s Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated earlier in the day that conduct ministerial talks on trade expansion and economic security cooperation, and will visit Washington for the fourth round of trade talks despite being “aware of the reports about the ruling”, Bloomberg reported. Akazawa refused to comment on the impact of the US court striking down Trump’s tariffs on “Japan-US negotiations” and said, “We [administration] intend to thoroughly examine the content of the ruling and its implications and respond appropriately.” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also entering Thursday’s NA session flat vs. the USD, trading in tandem with its G10 peers and responding headline risk related to trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also entering Thursday’s NA session flat vs. the USD, trading in tandem with its G10 peers and responding headline risk related to trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Bullish momentum is confirming the trend"Domestic developments have been limited and policymakers’ speeches have not generated significant headlines market movement. BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak at 3pm ET his post-speech media interview may offer some headlines." "Markets are currently pricing no change at the next BoE meeting on June 19 and 35bpts of easing by December, a significant reduction relative to the 95bpts that were priced on May 1." "The trend remains bullish, given the clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows since January. Monday’s multi-month high offers near-term resistance just below 1.36 and overnight price action has confirmed the importance of near-term support around 1.3420. Bullish momentum (RSI) is confirming the trend."

Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session nearly flat against the US Dollar (USD), having recovered from sizeable Asian session losses driven by headlines related to trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session nearly flat against the US Dollar (USD), having recovered from sizeable Asian session losses driven by headlines related to trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets are pricing at least one more 25bpt cut by year end"Sentiment appears to be dominating as we note EUR/USD’s tight relationship to risk reversals (options prices) and its ongoing break with yield spreads, reflecting a near-term misalignment with fundamentals." "The euro area release calendar has been sparse this week, leaving the focus squarely centered on market developments and headline risk. Next Thursday’s ECB meeting appears to be fully priced for a 25bpt cut, as market participants and policymakers continue to debate the extent of additional easing. Markets are still pricing at least one additional 25bpt cut by year end.""The multi-month trend is bullish, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows since early February. Support was most recently observed around the 50 day MA (then 1.1075, currently 1.1184), and near-term resistance is expected above 1.1400."

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has picked up—marginally—on the back of the latest twist in the tariff saga but the gains are minimal relative to yesterday’s close.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has picked up—marginally—on the back of the latest twist in the tariff saga but the gains are minimal relative to yesterday’s close. Oddly, the CAD did weaken in response to the announcement of the court decision late yesterday to reach the mid/upper 1.38s, likely reflecting the broader pull of the USD rising against the likes of the EUR and GBP in response to the news, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Daily and weekly oscillators remain bearishly aligned"Still, relief for Canada from the court ruling may be limited. It’s unclear how promptly the administration will respond to the ruling, the appeal process will play out—probably not that quickly—and businesses may wonder when, or how, they will get refunds on tariffs already paid out under the now banned measures." "Despite the volatility, spot is still trading a little below estimated fair value (1.3881) and we still feel that USD gains towards 1.39 offers decent value for USD sellers. Despite short-term volatility, price action may be signaling a halt to the USD rebound that developed after Friday’s recovery from the upper 1.36s." "Intraday trends in the USD look soft and drift from the overnight high is pressuring minor support at 1.3820; a move below here may see the USD edge back to the 1.3750/75 area. Overhead resistance looks firm near 1.3880/1.39, with trend resistance and the 40-day MA settling near the 1.39 point on the daily chart. Daily and weekly trend strength oscillators remain bearishly aligned for the USD which should limit scope for gains."

Late yesterday, a US court blocked a large part of President Trump’s tariff plans, striking down reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs.

Late yesterday, a US court blocked a large part of President Trump’s tariff plans, striking down reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs. The USD responded positively to the headlines, jumping in early Asian trade—helped by a squeeze on short USD positioning—but it has since slipped back, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD gains and slips on court decision blocking significant parts of tariff policy"The tariff risk premium on the USD may ease marginally in the short run but it is unclear whether there is much room for the USD to appreciate significantly. The court decision and the likely appeal which may run up to the Supreme Court simply extends the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and business decision-making, keeping a brake on global trade. The administration says it will appeal the decision and, even if that appeal is unsuccessful, other tariff avenues are likely to be pursued to help the president achieve his trade goals (and help raise revenue needed to help fund tax cuts)." "Risk assets have responded mostly positively to the news, however, with US equity futures also lifted by last nights earnings. The USD is tracking mostly lower against its major currency peers alongside weaker US Treasurys, however, which suggests this latest tariff reprieve will not (yet anyway) allow the USD to reconnect with highs US yields/wider yield spreads. This reflects the underlying bearish tone of the USD based on investor concerns about US institutional credibility and weak fiscal policy settings as well as potential challenges to Fed independence." "Overnight price action drove the DXY through resistance in the 100 zone but the slippage from the intraday high is pushing the index back to the upper 99s. Losses back under 99.75/80 would signal scope for a deeper USD drop on the day. The US data round this morning delivers the second read of Q1 GDP (expected unchanged at –0.3%), weekly claims, and Pending Home Sales. There are a number of Fed speakers with engagements over the course of the day. The Treasury is auctioning USD44bn of 7Y notes (results at 13ET). Banxico policy meeting minutes are out at 11ET. This evening, Japan reports Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Tokyo CPI data (May)."

The US Dollar has given away all the ground taken after the court ruling against US trade tariffs, and is trading with moderate losses ahead of the US Session opening, as the Canadian Dollar draws support from the rebound in Oil prices.A US federal court ruled on Wednesday that the US Congress has t

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar is giving away gains as the enthusiasm for the tariff ban wanes.- Investors are growing cautious with all eyes on the US GDP and Jobless Claims figures.- The rising Oil prices, on hopes of some trade normalisation, have buoyed the CAD.The US Dollar has given away all the ground taken after the court ruling against US trade tariffs, and is trading with moderate losses ahead of the US Session opening, as the Canadian Dollar draws support from the rebound in Oil prices.

A US federal court ruled on Wednesday that the US Congress has the exclusive authority to regulate international trade, and ordered the US administration to reverse all tariffs imposed after the April 2 “Liberation Day”.

The market reacted with a relief rally that sent the US Dollar to ten-day highs above the 100.00 psychological level. Likewise, investors dialled back expectations of Fed rate cuts to 42 basis points this year, from 50 bps. earlier this week.The USD loses ground as the dust from the tariff ban settlesThe USD, however, has lost momentum during the European trading session, with investors digesting the news and focusing on the US GDP figures, which are expected to confirm a 0.3% contraction in the first quarter. This is allowing some CAD recovery.

Hopes of some normalisation on global trade boosted expectations of an increase in Oil demand, and sent fears of an OPEC+ supply hike to the backseat. The US benchmark WTI oil extended its recovery from week lows right above $60.00 to $63.00, which provided some support to the Canadian Dollar.

In Canada, the focus is on Friday’s GDP figures, which are expected to show that the economy grew at a 0.1% pace in Q1. These figures are unlikely to alter hopes that the CAD might cut rates again next week, as the labour market shows signs of deterioration. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% -0.02% 0.09% -0.07% -0.22% -0.01% 0.10% EUR -0.05% -0.06% 0.05% -0.12% -0.21% -0.07% 0.04% GBP 0.02% 0.06% 0.12% -0.04% -0.13% -0.02% 0.03% JPY -0.09% -0.05% -0.12% -0.16% -0.34% -0.16% -0.10% CAD 0.07% 0.12% 0.04% 0.16% -0.20% 0.06% 0.06% AUD 0.22% 0.21% 0.13% 0.34% 0.20% 0.15% 0.15% NZD 0.00% 0.07% 0.02% 0.16% -0.06% -0.15% 0.00% CHF -0.10% -0.04% -0.03% 0.10% -0.06% -0.15% -0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

AUD/USD is holding above key support at 0.6400 but faces near-term resistance between 0.6500-0.6540, BBH FX analysts report.

AUD/USD is holding above key support at 0.6400 but faces near-term resistance between 0.6500-0.6540, BBH FX analysts report. 1Capex disappointment weighs, but AUD holds 0.6400 "Australia private new capital expenditure (capex) unexpectedly contracted over Q1. Capex fell -0.1% q/q (consensus: 0.5%) vs. 0.2% in 4Q (revised up from -0.2%) driven by a -1.3% q/q decline in equipment, plant and machinery." "Encouragingly, the second estimate for planned capex for 2025-26 was up 6.7% to A$95.6bn from the first estimate. RBA cash rate futures continue to price-in a total of 75bps of cuts to a low of 3.10% in the next 12 months."

Gold price (XAU/USD) claws back the majority of its initial losses in Thursday’s European trading session, recovers to near $3,300 from the weekly low of $3,245 posted earlier in the day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price recovers its early losses as the US Dollar falls back, with the legal roadblock of Trump’s tariffs raising global economic uncertainty.The US court orders the administration to lift reciprocal import duties and tariffs related to fentanyl and immigration controls.US businesses are expected to suspend their investment plans before getting clarity on levies.Gold price (XAU/USD) claws back the majority of its initial losses in Thursday’s European trading session, recovers to near $3,300 from the weekly low of $3,245 posted earlier in the day. The yellow metal bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) gives up its early gains in the aftermath of the legal roadblock on United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders initial gains and flattens slightly below 100.00 at the time of writing. Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Gold price a value bet for investors.On Wednesday, New York’s federal court accused US President Trump of violating the constitutional limit of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for fulfilling his tariff agenda, the Associated Press (AP) reported. The Manhattan-based court ordered the administration to lift import duties within ten days, to which the White House immediately appealed the decision.In April, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs for all of his trading partners and additional duties on Canada, Mexico, and China for border negligence and pouring fentanyl into the US economy. He declared a national emergency under the IEEPA to justify levies. This suggests that the imposition of tariffs by Trump on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and semiconductors remains intact.Daily digest market movers: Gold price recovers initial lossesThe US court blocking Trump’s tariffs came as relief for financial market participants who were cautious over the economic outlook, assuming that new international policies would be stagflationary for the economy. This led to a sharp decline in the demand for US bonds, which spiked 10-year US Treasury yields over 1% to above 4.53%, lifting demand for the US Dollar and US equity futures.However, the US Dollar is off from its day’s high as the event has renewed concerns over its credibility. The stop-and-go announcements on levies are expected to force domestic companies to revise their business plans, which were designed considering the import duty policy as the new normal. Businesses had started preparing investment plans to boost domestic manufacturing.US President Trump stated numerous times that his campaign to bring manufacturing back to the nation will be beneficial for the labor market. Last week, he also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on smartphone makers for not producing them in the US."My big worry is that companies start to put off things like hiring or capital expense or giving people raises for these factories or manufacturing," according to analysts at Invesco. They added that the event could certainly put a “damper on company earnings” and “consumption could also be impacted”.On the economic front, investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be released on Friday. The US core PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 2.5% on year, compared to the prior release of 2.6%. The impact of the inflation data is expected to be limited on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook as the US court striking down Trump’s tariffs has heightened uncertainty over economic prospects.Technical Analysis: Gold price wobbles around the 20-day EMAGold price recoups early losses but continues to struggle around the upward-sloping trendline on a daily timeframe around $3,335, which is plotted from the December 12 high of $2,726. The near-term trend of the precious metal is uncertain as it wobbles around the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $3,286.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.Looking up, the May 7 high around $3,440 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the May 15 low at $3,120.83 will be the key support zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Increase in momentum is likely to lead to US Dollar (USD) advance, potentially to 7.2130. In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Increase in momentum is likely to lead to US Dollar (USD) advance, potentially to 7.2130. In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Increase in momentum is likely to lead to USD advance24-HOUR VIEW: "USD rebounded to 7.1935 two days ago. Yesterday, we noted that 'The rebound lacks momentum, and instead of extending further, USD is likely to trade between 7.1750 and 7.1950.' USD subsequently traded in a 7.1860/7.1990 range. Although USD closed largely unchanged at 7.1928 (+0.01%), it lifted off and surged today. The increase in momentum is likely to lead to further advance, potentially to 7.2130. The next resistance at 7.2300 is probably out of reach. To maintain the momentum, USD must hold above 7.1900 (minor support is at 7.1980)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On Monday (26 May, spot at 7.1770), we indicated that 'while downward momentum has not increased significantly, as long as 7.2070 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached, the bias for USD is on the downside toward 7.1500. After USD dropped to 7.1626 and rebounded, we indicated yesterday (28 May, spot at 7.1880) that 'downward momentum is slowing and a breach of 7.2020 would mean that the downward bias has faded.' USD rose above 7.2020 today. For now, we expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 7.1800 and 7.2300."

US Dollar (USD) is expected to strengthen; the significant resistance at 147.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, price action suggests further USD upside; too early to tell whether 147.50 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is expected to strengthen; the significant resistance at 147.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, price action suggests further USD upside; too early to tell whether 147.50 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price action suggests further USD upside24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the sharp rally in USD two days ago, we indicated the following yesterday: 'While strong momentum could lead to further USD strength, deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance is likely limited to a test of 144.80. The major resistance at 145.30 is unlikely to come under threat.' USD rose more than expected, reaching a high of 145.07. Today, shortly after opening, USD surged. We continue to expect USD to strengthen, but this time around, the significant resistance at 147.50 is unlikely to come under threat. There is another resistance at 146.80. On the downside, any pullback is likely to remain above 144.90, with minor support at 145.40." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After expecting a weaker USD for a week, we revised our view to neutral yesterday (28 May, spot at 144.00). We indicated that 'the weeklong USD weakness has stabilised.' We also indicated that 'though there is room for USD to rise further, any advance is likely part of 142.70/145.30 range.' USD subsequently rose to 145.07. Today, USD surged above 145.30. Even though the price action suggests further USD upside, it is too early to tell whether 147.50 is within reach. To sustain the momentum, USD must remain above the ‘strong support’ level, now at 144.50."

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to continue to trade sideways, most likely in a range of 0.5925/0.5975. In the longer run, upward momentum has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to continue to trade sideways, most likely in a range of 0.5925/0.5975. In the longer run, upward momentum has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now24-HOUR VIEW: "We stated yesterday that NZD 'could continue to trade sideways, but the softer underlying tone suggests a lower range of 0.5920/ 0.5980.' Our view of sideways trading was not wrong, even though NZD traded in a slightly narrower range than expected (0.5927/0.5980). The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect NZD to trade sideways, most likely in a range of 0.5925/0.5975." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from Monday, 26 May, when NZD was at 0.5990, we noted that, 'While there has been an increase in momentum, it is not enough to indicate a sustained rise just yet.' We added, 'For a sustained advance, NZD must break and hold above the significant resistance at 0.6030.' On Tuesday, NZD fell to a low of 0.5941. Yesterday, Wednesday, we pointed out that “momentum is slowing rapidly, and the chance of NZD breaking decisively above 0.6030 is slim.” NZD then traded sideways, and upward momentum has faded. For now, we expect NZD to trade in a range, probably between 0.5900 and 0.6000."

Australian Dollar (AUD) could edge below 0.6400 against US Dollar (USD); the next support at 0.6380 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) could edge below 0.6400 against US Dollar (USD); the next support at 0.6380 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Next support at 0.6380 is unlikely to come under threat24-HOUR VIEW: "AUD edged to a low of 0.6435 two days ago. Yesterday, when AUD was at 0.6450, we highlighted that 'while the weakness has not quite stabilised, AUD does not appear to have enough momentum to continue to decline.' We were of the view that AUD is 'more likely to trade in a range of 0.6430/0.6485.' Although AUD traded in a lower range than expected (0.6410/0.6454), downward momentum has not increased significantly. That said, AUD could edge lower below 0.6400 today. The next support at 0.6380 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance levels are at 0.6435 and 0.6455." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Following the decline in AUD two days ago, we highlighted yesterday (28 May, spot at 0.6450) that 'The loss in momentum indicates the likelihood the likelihood of AUD reaching 0.6550 is low.' We added, 'if AUD were to break clearly below 0.6430 (‘strong support’ level), it would mean that it could range trade for a period.' AUD subsequently fell to 0.6410. Upward momentum has faded, and for the time being, we expect AUD to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485."

One might have expected EUR/CHF to trade a little higher on this tariff ruling and the decent rally in equity markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

One might have expected EUR/CHF to trade a little higher on this tariff ruling and the decent rally in equity markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.SNB constraints weigh on EUR/CHF despite risk-on mood"The fact that it is still trading below 0.94 probably owes to creeping distrust of US Treasuries and the view that the Swiss National Bank is in a bit of a bind when it comes to interest rates and FX intervention." "Looking at the SNB, it is reluctant to take the policy rate negative again, but it looks like it will have to when it next meets on 19 June. Currently, the market is split between a 25bp and 50bp rate cut." "Equally, investors are of the view that the SNB will be more constrained with FX buying intervention – an activity very much at odds with the directives coming from Washington. The big doubt now is that the SNB can be dovish enough in June to take pressure off the EUR/CHF downside, especially if the ECB is to cut twice more."

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.25%, aligning with market expectations. However, the tone of the meeting suggests a shift away from a dovish stance.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.25%, aligning with market expectations. However, the tone of the meeting suggests a shift away from a dovish stance. Key highlights from the MPC include a 5-1 vote split in favour of the cut, which contrasts with the prevailing market expectation for a unanimous decision. Pair was last at 0.5968 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is flat"RBNZ's updated projections indicate an average OCR of 2.9% by year-end. Chief Economist Conway emphasised that rates are nearing a neutral level, while Governor Hawkesby expressed caution about future rate adjustments, remarking 'we have done a lot of work'. ""This suggests the RBNZ is no longer committed to a predetermined easing trajectory, with future moves likely to depend on incoming economic data. We anticipate the possibility of another 25bp cut to 3.0% in the third quarter, potentially in August. Importantly, RBNZ's departure from its dovish stance since July 2024 may potentially be a positive for NZD. ""Daily momentum is flat while RSI fell. Golden cross formed with 50 DMA cutting 200 DMA to the upside. Interim, we see 2-way risks but more broadly, bias to buy dips. Support at 0.5930 (21 DMA), 0.5860 levels (50, 200 DMAs). Resistance at 0.6020, 0.6060 levels."

It's interesting to see EUR/GBP still trading quite softly despite some better news on global trade, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

It's interesting to see EUR/GBP still trading quite softly despite some better news on global trade, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Sterling holds firm as EUR/GBP trades soft"By nature of the UK's better trade position with the US and the fact that the UK has a trade deal, EUR/GBP normally should trade better bid on positive trade news. No doubt sterling's relatively high interest rates (4.30% per annum on a one-week deposit, versus 2.2% for the euro) are helping here. And there seems to be less fear over a tough UK government spending review on 11 June.""EUR/GBP looks comfortable down here in the 0.8350-0.8400 area."

Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade with a downward bias toward 1.3395 vs US Dollar (USD); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade with a downward bias toward 1.3395 vs US Dollar (USD); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely. In the longer run, slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to GBP trading in a lower range of 1.3330/1.3530, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP also may trade in a lower range of 1.3330/1.353024-HOUR VIEW: "Following GBP’s price action two days ago, we noted yesterday that 'the decline only resulted in a slight increase in downward momentum.' We also indicated that GBP 'is likely to trade in a lower range of 1.3480/1.3560.' We did not expect GBP to drop and close at 1.3458. GBP continues to decline today. Downward momentum is increasing, albeit not significantly. Today, we expect GBP to trade with a downward bias toward 1.3395. A sustained break below this level seems unlikely. Resistance is at 1.3460, followed by 1.3485." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a positive GBP view since late last week. Yesterday (28 May, spot at 1.3515), we pointed out that 'upward momentum is beginning to wane.' We stated that 'a break below 1.3460 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that 1.3635 is out of reach this time round.' GBP then broke below 1.3460. Upward momentum has faded. Downward momentum has increased slightly, but currently, this is likely to lead to GBP trading in a lower range of 1.3330/1.3530 rather than of a sustained decline."

FX markets should focus on two themes today: the US Court of International Trade ruling that the majority of President Trump's tariffs are illegal, and insights from the minutes of the 7 May FOMC meeting, which suggest that dollar selling in April was driven by hedging rather than outright sales of

FX markets should focus on two themes today: the US Court of International Trade ruling that the majority of President Trump's tariffs are illegal, and insights from the minutes of the 7 May FOMC meeting, which suggest that dollar selling in April was driven by hedging rather than outright sales of US assets. The dollar has rallied around 0.5/0.7% in Asia on the view that Trump may be more constrained in his trade war. This follows a court ruling that found he had exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to impose reciprocal tariffs in April, as well as earlier fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. The White House is, as expected, appealing the decision, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.USD may stay bid in the near term"The news that the legal system is constraining the use of tariffs has been welcomed by US equity markets, where S&P futures are up around 1.2% in Asia. Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report is also helping here. This is slightly bearish news for US Treasuries in that better US growth prospects further reduce the chance of an earlier Fed cut, but also that the assumed tariff revenue may not materialise to offset the fiscally expansionary Big, Beautiful Bill currently passing through Congress. Notably, the US 10-year US swap spread remains wide at 55bp and the risk premium in US Treasuries may be one of the factors preventing a more whole-hearted rally in the dollar.""The FOMC minutes are worth a read as they provide the Fed's take on market developments in April. They attribute the Treasury sell-off more to the swap spread (US 10-year Treasuries versus swaps) than to the basis trade (cash versus futures). The Fed also noted, based on feedback from its market contacts, that the sharp decline in the dollar was primarily driven by increased FX hedge ratios, rather than significant foreign selling of US assets. While acknowledging that global investors only change strategies slowly and not ruling out future changes, the suggestion that the dollar selling was mainly driven by hedging is slightly less serious for the dollar.""For today, the focus will be on revisions to the first-quarter GDP data and initial claims. Presumably, we will all be watching President Trump's social media feed too to see what he makes of last night's court ruling on tariffs. We think the combination of this tariff news and a slightly hawkish FOMC minutes (almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation could prove to be more persistent than expected), can help the dollar stay bid in the near term. The best case for DXY is probably a 1.6% rally to 102.00 – but this won't be in a straight line and conditions will remain choppy."

The Aussie Dollar bounced up right above the 0.6400 psychological level on Thursday and is trading 0.30% higher on the day, with a retest of the 0.6450 resistance area on the cards, as the US Dollar rally loses steam.The Greenback appreciated across the board during late Wednesday and Thursday’s Asi

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The Aussie Dollar bounced up right above the 0.6400 psychological level on Thursday and is trading 0.30% higher on the day, with a retest of the 0.6450 resistance area on the cards, as the US Dollar rally loses steam.

The Greenback appreciated across the board during late Wednesday and Thursday’s Asian session, boosted by a US court ruling against Trump’s trade tariffs, before pulling back during the European session.

In Australia, an unexpected decline in Private Capital Expenditure, which fell 0.1% in the first quarter, against expectations of a 0.5% increase, offset the positive impact of the sticky inflation numbers seen on Wednesday and added negative pressure on the AUD.Enthusiasm about the tariff ban fadesAfter the initial enthusiasm, Investors might have come to terms with the fact that this will be an extended process. The US Government immediately appealed the court's sentence, which suggests that Trump’s erratic trade policy is far from over.

The focus today is on the second reading of the US Q1 GDP, which is expected to confirm a 0.3% contraction.

The Weekly Jobless Claims will provide a fresh glimpse into the US Labour market, and Fed officials Goldsbee, Kugler, and Daly might offer some clues about the bank’s easing calendar.

The highlight of the week, however, is Friday’s PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s favourite inflation gauge, which is expected to show that price pressure ticked up in April.  Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.


Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) rose from previous -1.5% to -1.1% in March

Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) down to -1.6% in March from previous -0.4%

Shorts in USD/JPY continued to get squeezed, from month-end USD buy flows to US trade court’s ruling on Trump tariffs partially helped to restore some credibility to the system, which has been undermined by the unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs.

Shorts in USD/JPY continued to get squeezed, from month-end USD buy flows to US trade court’s ruling on Trump tariffs partially helped to restore some credibility to the system, which has been undermined by the unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs. Pair was last at 145.12 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Near term risks skewed to the upside"This aided USD’s recent rebound. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias while RSI rose. Near term risks skewed to the upside but bias to fade. Resistance at 146.50, 147.10 levels. Support at 144.40/70 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 142.50. US Core PCE data risk (Friday) may see further unwinding, leading to near term USD/JPY upside risks." "On Friday, we watch Tokyo CPI, IP, retail sales data. Hotter than expected data should curtail the recent rebound. While the timing of BoJ policy normalisation may be deferred, policy normalisation is not derailed. Fed-BoJ policy divergence and USD diversification theme should still support USDJPY's broader direction of movement to the downside."

Copper inventories on the LME fell to the lowest level in almost two years, with withdrawals continuing at warehouses in Rotterdam. Thousands of tonnes of Copper have been withdrawn over the past few trading sessions, with Glencore the key trader behind these requests.

Copper inventories on the LME fell to the lowest level in almost two years, with withdrawals continuing at warehouses in Rotterdam. Thousands of tonnes of Copper have been withdrawn over the past few trading sessions, with Glencore the key trader behind these requests. It’s making plans to deliver the metal, which is of Russian origin, to China, according to Bloomberg reports, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Copper inventories plunge as Glencore moves Russian metal to China"Copper stocks in LME warehouses now stand at 83,000 tonnes, the lowest since August 2023. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Copper inventories are at their lowest since 2022. The race to get Copper to the US after Trump launched an investigation on whether to impose import tariffs on the metal tightened markets elsewhere.""Prices rose in yesterday’s trading session following these withdrawals. Copper prices have been volatile since the beginning of the year, with this volatility mostly driven by tariff risks and China’s uncertain outlook.""Meanwhile, the latest commitments of traders report (COTR) shows that speculators decreased their net long position in aluminium by 2,957 lots to 89,957 lots for the week ending 23 May. Similarly, net bullish bets for Copper fell by 765 lots for a third consecutive week to 67,858 lots at the end of last week. By contrast, money managers increased net bullish bets for zinc by 1,112 lots to 12,338 lots -- the highest since the week ending on 11 April 2025."

US Dollar's (USD’s) rebound found momentum from a US court ruling, saying that Trump’s unilateral imposition of 'Liberation Day tariffs' under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is invalid.

US Dollar's (USD’s) rebound found momentum from a US court ruling, saying that Trump’s unilateral imposition of 'Liberation Day tariffs' under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is invalid. DXY was last at 99.93 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. 2-way trades still likely in the near term"The ruling also blocks the enforcement of fentanyl-related tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada that were announced earlier this year. In response, the Trump administration had filed a notice that it was appealing the ruling, and ultimately the US Supreme Court may have the final say. The court ruling helps to restore some credibility to the system which has been undermined by the unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs. ""The check and balance system is at least intact for now, providing a knee-jerk rebound for the USD while US futures jumped over 1%. Adding to FX market volatility was BoK Governor Rhee’s comments that Asian nations had currency talks with the US. This headline saw some knee-jerk reaction, slowing USD’s advance against Asian FX. Nevertheless, Rhee’s comments alongside, uncertainty over the legitimacy of Trump’s tariffs may continue to see more 2-way price action in the USD ahead of core PCE data (Friday)." "Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias while RSI rose. 2-way trades still likely in the near term. Resistance at 100.80/101 levels (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough). Support at 99.2 and 97.90 (2025 low)."

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 98.47 on Thursday, down from 99.71 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.5% in April from previous 0.6%

South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY): 0.5% (April)

As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) for a sixth straight meeting by 25bps to 3.25%.

As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) for a sixth straight meeting by 25bps to 3.25%. The decision was not unanimous, with one of the six Monetary Policy Committee members voting against the cut, marking only the second time an OCR decision has gone to a vote, UOB Group's economist Lee Sue Ann reports. RBNZ cuts rates to 3.25%, signals further easing ahead"In a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3.25%. The decision was not unanimous, with one of the six Monetary Policy Committee members voting against the cut, marking only the second time an OCR decision has gone to a vote." "The RBNZ signaled it might need to ease further due to higher tariffs and increased uncertainty. The central bank’s forward guidance shows the average OCR falling to 2.92% by the end of the year." "There will be no monetary policy meeting in Jun, and the next time the RBNZ meets will be on 9 Jul, where we are expecting another 25 bps cut. At this juncture, our view is that this will likely be the last 25 bps cut, though risks are tilted towards a lower OCR trough due to increased uncertainty."

Italy 5-y Bond Auction: 2.73% vs previous 3.05%

Italy 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.83% to 3.57%

EUR/USD is understandably lower on the US tariff news in that it slightly re-appraises US growth prospects and the risk premium attached to the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD is understandably lower on the US tariff news in that it slightly re-appraises US growth prospects and the risk premium attached to the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. EUR/USD may start to reconnect with the interest rate differential"Is the rules-based order winning out after all? A slight narrowing in the US risk premium on this news could see EUR/USD start to reconnect a little with the interest rate differential story. Here, the two-year EUR:USD swap differential is quite wide at 180bp – levels which last year prompted EUR/USD to trade down at 1.06.""We think global asset managers did have a shock in April and are seriously looking at their dollar hedge ratios. But the newsflow is mildly supportive for the dollar and there is a scenario where EUR/USD can make it back to the 1.1050 area – consistent with our baseline views for this year that EUR/USD traces out a 1.10-1.15 range.""The eurozone calendar is very light today, but we do have a new date for the diary: 25 June, when Germany could unveil a new economic package and add some weight to the fiscally expansive bullish euro story."

NZD/USD is trading around 0.5960 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair has trimmed its daily losses as a market bias remains neutral.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD could target the initial barrier at upper boundary of the rectangle around 0.6000.The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains above the 50 mark, continuing to attract buyers.The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.5951.NZD/USD is trading around 0.5960 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair has trimmed its daily losses as a market bias remains neutral. As indicating by the technical analysis of the daily chart, the pair is consolidating within a rectangular pattern and hovering around a nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).However, the bullish bias is likely to emerge as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is maintaining its position slightly above the 50 mark. This suggests that NZD/USD pair continues to attract buying interest.On the upside, the NZD/USD pair may target the upper boundary of the consolidation range near 0.6000, followed by the next target at the six-month high of 0.6038, last reached in November 2024. A successful breach above this key resistance zone could support the bullish bias to develop and open the doors for the pair to explore the region around the seven-month high of 0.6350, marked in October 2024.The NZD/USD pair could find the initial support at the nine-day EMA of 0.5951, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.5877. A break below these levels could weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and prompt the pair to break below the rectangle’s lower boundary around 0.5830. Further decline beneath this crucial support zone could cause the emergence of the bearish bias and pave the way for a deeper decline toward 0.5485, a level not seen since March 2020.NZD/USD: Daily Chart New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.15% 0.03% 0.25% -0.04% -0.18% 0.09% 0.31% EUR -0.15% -0.12% 0.10% -0.19% -0.27% -0.07% 0.15% GBP -0.03% 0.12% 0.23% -0.06% -0.14% 0.03% 0.19% JPY -0.25% -0.10% -0.23% -0.28% -0.45% -0.21% -0.04% CAD 0.04% 0.19% 0.06% 0.28% -0.19% 0.13% 0.24% AUD 0.18% 0.27% 0.14% 0.45% 0.19% 0.20% 0.32% NZD -0.09% 0.07% -0.03% 0.21% -0.13% -0.20% 0.12% CHF -0.31% -0.15% -0.19% 0.04% -0.24% -0.32% -0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Italy Trade Balance non-EU down to €2.178B in April from previous €5.958B

Euro (EUR) continued to drift lower amid broad US Dollar (USD) rebound. Pair was last at 1.1250 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) continued to drift lower amid broad US Dollar (USD) rebound. Pair was last at 1.1250 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Alternative reserve currencies including the EUR may benefit"Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias now while RSI fell. On price action, rising wedge pattern is playing out — typically associated with a bearish reversal. Support at 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high) and 1.1180 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.1420/30 levels." "A potential deal between EU-US may lead to EUR backing off from its recent highs in the near term. But more importantly, if the 'sell USD' trade remains alive amid diversification flows, alternative reserve currencies including the EUR may benefit."

Oil markets strengthened yesterday as sanction risks against Russia increase, while the market appears to be losing hope that we’ll see a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. This might’ve led to the eventual lifting of oil sanctions.

Oil markets strengthened yesterday as sanction risks against Russia increase, while the market appears to be losing hope that we’ll see a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. This might’ve led to the eventual lifting of oil sanctions. The market is also rising on news that the US Court of International Trade ruled President Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariffs overstepped his authority, blocking the levies. The Trump administration said it's appealing the decision, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Crude Oil rallies as OPEC+ output decision looms"Meanwhile, oil markets must contend with OPEC+ coming decision on July output levels at a meeting on Saturday. We're assuming the group will agree on another large supply increase of 411k b/d. We expect similar increases through until the end of the third quarter, as the group increases its focus on defending market share. Yesterday, OPEC+ ratified broader group production quotas through until the end of 2026. This weekend’s decision relates to additional voluntary cuts that some members had previously made.""Inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute overnight was fairly constructive. It showed US crude oil inventories fell by 4.24m barrels over the last week, while stocks at Cushing dropped by 342k barrels. It was more of a mixed bag for refined products. Gasoline inventories declined by 528k barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.3m barrels." "The latest positioning data shows that investment funds increased their net long in the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) by 16.5TWh over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long of a little over 100TWh. This was predominantly driven by fresh buying amid Norwegian outages. It’s the largest position speculators have held in TTF since early April."

WTI Oil prices accelerated their recovery on Thursday, as a US court ruling against Trump’s tariffs boosted hopes for some normalisation in global trade, which will support crude demand.The US Court for International Trade ruled on Wednesday that Trump’s unilateral trade tariffs overstep the US Cong

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Oil prices rally after a US court blocked Trump’s trade tariffsDeclining Crude stocks in the US have provided additional support to prices.Investors remain wary that  OPEC+ countries might decide to hike output on Saturday.WTI Oil prices accelerated their recovery on Thursday, as a US court ruling against Trump’s tariffs boosted hopes for some normalisation in global trade, which will support crude demand.

The US Court for International Trade ruled on Wednesday that Trump’s unilateral trade tariffs overstep the US Congress’s authority and have blocked the levies imposed after April’s “Liberation Day”.

Before that, a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed that US Crude stocks fell by 4,236 million barrels last week, following a 2,499 increase in the previous week, providing additional support for prices.

The US Government has appealed the sentence, putting the court’s authority into question. This process is likely to draw out long, which might dampen investors’ enthusiasm at some point.

Beyond that, investors remain wary about a likely decision by OPEC+ countries to hike output after their May 31 meeting. This would bring oversupply fears back to the table, adding bearish pressure on prices.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Further weakness is not ruled out; it is unclear whether Euro (EUR) can break and hold below 1.1200 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, to continue to decline, EUR must first close below 1.1200, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Further weakness is not ruled out; it is unclear whether Euro (EUR) can break and hold below 1.1200 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, to continue to decline, EUR must first close below 1.1200, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further weakness is not ruled out24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR dropped to 1.1321 two days ago. In the early Asian session yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1335, we highlighted that 'despite declining, EUR has not gained much momentum.' We expected EUR to 'consolidate between 1.1305 and 1.1375.' However, instead of consolidating, EUR edged down to close at 1.1292 (-0.32%). In the early Asian session today, EUR plunged (the low so far appears to be 1.1209). Further weakness is not ruled, but the sharp drop seems excessive, and it is unclear whether EUR can break and hold below 1.1200. For now, the major support at 1.1140 is unlikely to come under threat. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1275 and 1.1300." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our EUR view from positive to neutral yesterday (28 May, spot at 1.1335), indicating that 'upward momentum has mostly dissipated.' We also indicated that EUR 'is likely to trade in a 1.1255/1.1420 range for now.' Although our revision was timely, we did not expect EUR to drop below 1.1255 early today. To continue to decline, EUR must first close below 1.1200. The risk of EUR closing below 1.1200 will remain intact provided that the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 1.1355 is not breached. Looking ahead, below 1.1200, there is a significant support level at 1.1140 (the current level of the 55-day EMA indicated in the 1-3 months view below)."

The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers early losses against the US Dollar (USD), after hitting a bottom of 1.3415, and trades flat around 1.3470 during European trading hours on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling recovers to 1.3470 against the US Dollar as investors reassess the impact of the US court’s decision against tariffs.The US court ruled out Trump’s tariff policy, citing it as a violation of constitutional limits.The IMF has slightly raised its forecast for UK GDP growth for the year to 1.2%The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers early losses against the US Dollar (USD), after hitting a bottom of 1.3415, and trades flat around 1.3470 during European trading hours on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair rebounds as the US Dollar surrenders a chunk of its initial gains, as the United States (US) Court of International Trade’s verdict against President Donald Trump’s tariffs increases economic uncertainty further.The event also seems critical for business owners, who started designing their procurement strategies, considering Trump’s levies as the new normal for the global economy. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up only 0.25% around 100.10, which went around 100.50 earlier in the day.Earlier in the day, the US Dollar (USD), bond yields, and US equities gained sharply after the Manhattan-based court blocked Donald Trump from sweeping most tariffs.The court condemned Trump’s usage of the Carter-era International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify his international agenda, quoting it as exploitation of the president’s authority. The court has ruled out import duties announced by him on the so-called “Liberation Day”, while sector-specific tariffs such as automobiles, metals, and semiconductors are intact.Meanwhile,  a 10-day deadline has been issued by the court to the administration for a permanent injunction of Liberation Day tariffs, to which the White House appealed soon after the decision.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains on IMF revision of UK GDP growth to 1.2%The Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers on Thursday as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for the current year to 1.2% from 1.1% in the wake of upbeat economic performance seen in the first quarter.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported in the middle of the month that the economy expanded at a robust pace of 0.7%, compared to estimates of 0.6% and a nominal growth of 0.1% seen in the last quarter of 2024.Another reason behind the strength in the British currency is fading market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates again in the June policy meeting. Traders have pared BoE dovish bets on hotter-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a robust growth in the UK Retail Sales data for April.This week, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be released on Friday. The US core PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 2.5% on year, compared to the prior release of 2.6%.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling attracts bids near 1.3430The Pound Sterling bounces back against the US Dollar on Thursday after attracting bids near the horizontal support plotted from the September 26 high of 1.3434. The outlook of the pair remains firm as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 1.3385.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to hold above 60.00. The bullish momentum would come to an end if the RSI slides into the 40.00-60.00 range.On the upside, the 13 January 2022 high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the 20-day EMA will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

AUD/JPY continues its winning streak for the fifth successive day, trading around 93.60 during the European hours on Thursday.

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The currency cross rises due to risk-on sentiment after a three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan blocked President Donald Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect.The US federal found the President Trump exceeded his authority of imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful. The Trump administration put higher duties on imports from countries with large trade surpluses, such as China and the European Union, with introducing a 10% baseline tariff on most goods entering the US. Trump appears unlikely to back down, posted on his social media app Truth Social that he is on a "Mission from God".The upside of the AUD/JPY cross could be restrained as the Australian Dollar (AUD) could face challenges due to hopes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivering further rate cuts in the upcoming policy meetings. Governor Michele Bullock stated that the RBA is prepared to take additional action if the economic outlook deteriorates sharply, raising the prospect of future rate cuts.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the importance of monitoring potential spillover effects on shorter-maturity debt markets after observing a surge in super-long-term bond yields. Ueda reflected growing caution about financial stability risks amid shifting interest rate dynamics in Japan. Ueda has said earlier that the BoJ is ready to adjust monetary policy as needed to meet its inflation targets. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

USD/CHF gives back the majority of early gains as the US Dollar retreats.

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US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

EUR/USD is trading with moderate losses, around 1.1275 at the time of writing, after bouncing up from 1.1213 lows on the back of a significant US Dollar (USD) jump, following a US court ruling against trade tariffs.The three judges from the US Court of International Trade have voted unanimously agai

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The three judges from the US Court of International Trade have voted unanimously against US President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs, as they consider that the exclusive authority to regulate commerce resides with Congress.

The news has boosted risk appetite, triggering significant rallies on the US Dollar and sending Asian Stock markets higher. Eurozone and Wall Street futures are also pointing to a positive opening. 

Investors have welcomed the court ruling. Trump’s tariffs had fuelled concerns that higher inflationary pressures and a weaker economic outlook would pose a headache to the Federal Reserve (Fed), as the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting revealed.

The US Government, however, appealed the sentence quickly, which suggests that a lengthy process will follow. This might halt the relief rally at some point, but so far, the positive market mood has reversed the “Sell America” trade. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.13% 0.03% 0.28% -0.13% -0.35% 0.02% 0.34% EUR -0.13% -0.09% 0.13% -0.26% -0.42% -0.12% 0.19% GBP -0.03% 0.09% 0.23% -0.16% -0.31% -0.04% 0.20% JPY -0.28% -0.13% -0.23% -0.42% -0.64% -0.30% -0.05% CAD 0.13% 0.26% 0.16% 0.42% -0.26% 0.15% 0.35% AUD 0.35% 0.42% 0.31% 0.64% 0.26% 0.30% 0.51% NZD -0.02% 0.12% 0.04% 0.30% -0.15% -0.30% 0.20% CHF -0.34% -0.19% -0.20% 0.05% -0.35% -0.51% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: The Dollar jumps as a US court blocks trade tariffs
The US Court of International Trade has invalidated with immediate effect Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and instructed the administration to issue orders reflecting the ruling within the next ten days. The government appealed the sentence, questioning the court’s authority.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, has returned above the 100.00 psychological level and is trading about 1.8% above last week’s lows.
The news on levies has also prompted investors to pare back Fed easing hopes. Futures markets are now pricing an average of 42 basis points of interest rate cuts this year, down from 50 earlier this week.
On Wednesday, the Minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting reflected the central bank’s concerns about the risks of stagflation. Such a scenario would force the Fed to prioritize one of its two mandates: promoting employment or fighting inflation, which would deteriorate investors’ confidence in the US Dollar and other US assets.
Eurozone macroeconomic data failed to inspire on Wednesday. German Unemployment Rate remained steady at 6.3% despite a higher-than-expected increase in layoffs. France’s Nonfarm Payrolls declined to -0.1% against expectations of 0%, and Consumer Spending rose well below forecasts, 0.3% against 0.8%.
In the US calendar today, the second estimation of the first quarter’s GDP and several Fed speakers will provide some fundamental background for the US Dollar ahead of Friday’s all-important Personal Consumption (PCE) Price Index release.Technical analysis: EUR/USD is on a negative trend, with support at 1.1215 in play EUR/USD is going through a bearish correction after last week’s impulsive rally. The pair broke and confirmed below the ascending channel’s bottom, before finding some support at the May 20 low at 1.1215.

Price action is showing a mild recovery, yet with technical indicators well within bearish territory on the 4-hour chart. Upside attempts are likely to be challenged at a previous intraday support in the 1.1285 area and the reverse trendline, now at 1.1315.

Below the mentioned 1.1215 support area, the next targets are 1.1130 (May 16 low) and 1.1065 (May 12 low).EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Italy Consumer Confidence registered at 96.5 above expectations (93) in May

Italy Business Confidence registered at 86.5 above expectations (86.2) in May

Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Thursday, “China and US have used multilateral and bilateral occasions to maintain communications at various levels.”

Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Thursday, “China and US have used multilateral and bilateral occasions to maintain communications at various levels.”Further commentsFocused on US export controls abuse in semiconductors sector.

Very concerned by the  EU tire anti-dumping probe.

Will defend legitimate rights, interests of Chinese firms.

USD/CAD loses ground after registering gains in the previous two consecutive sessions, trading around 1.3820 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from improved crude Oil prices.

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Silver prices (XAG/USD) are showing moderate gains on Thursday, after bouncing up from the support area, at $32.60-32.70 but the broader picture remains mixed with price action contained within recent ranges.The fundamental background is unsupportive today.

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The fundamental background is unsupportive today. A US court has blocked Trump’s trade tariffs, and, although that might be positive for commodities trading, the US Dollar's strength might keep XAG/USD rallies limited.Technical analysis: A descending triangle is a bearish patternSilver has been posting lower highs over the last trading days, after its rejection at $33.70. Price action is showing a descending triangle, which has a potential ¡bearish outcome.

Immediate support is at the mentioned $32.60-32.70 area, where the precious metals found buyers on May 22 and today. If this area is broken, the next support levels are the May 20 low at $32.15 and the May 1 and 15 lows, at the $31.70 area.
On the upside, a successful break of the triangle’s top, now around $33.35, cancels this view and brings the $33.70 top back into focus.XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Spain Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.6% to 4% in April

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 29:

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 29:Markets turn risk-positive in the second half of the week as fears over an economic downturn in the United States (US) ease following a federal court's decision to block US President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter on Thursday. The US economic calendar will also feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and April Pending Home Sales data. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.84% 0.52% 2.15% 0.74% 0.90% 0.59% 1.24% EUR -0.84% -0.31% 1.33% -0.10% 0.05% -0.25% 0.41% GBP -0.52% 0.31% 1.33% 0.22% 0.37% 0.06% 0.74% JPY -2.15% -1.33% -1.33% -1.39% -1.24% -1.59% -0.90% CAD -0.74% 0.10% -0.22% 1.39% 0.18% -0.15% 0.52% AUD -0.90% -0.05% -0.37% 1.24% -0.18% -0.34% 0.37% NZD -0.59% 0.25% -0.06% 1.59% 0.15% 0.34% 0.67% CHF -1.24% -0.41% -0.74% 0.90% -0.52% -0.37% -0.67% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Court of International Trade announced late Wednesday President Trump's reciprocal tariffs will be blocked from going into effect, explaining that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from the US' trading partners, per Reuters. Commenting on the use of tariffs as leverage, "that use is impermissible not because it is unwise or ineffective, but because federal law does not allow it," a three-judge panel said. The Trump administration has reportedly already filed a notice of appeal, questioning the court's authority.The US Dollar (USD) gathered strength with the immediate reaction and the USD Index climbed to its highest level in over a week above 100.50. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.25% on the day at 100.12, while US stock index futures were gaining between 1.3% and 2%, reflecting the improving market mood.In the meantime, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed that officials saw elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook. "Participants noted they may face difficult trade-offs if inflation proved more persistent while outlooks for growth and employment weakened," the publication noted.Gold came under heavy bearish pressure in the Asian session and fell to its lowest level since May 20 below $3,250 before correcting higher. As of writing, XAU/USD was down 0.5% on the day near $3,270.EUR/USD extended its weekly slide and came within a touching distance of 1.1200 before recovering above 1.1250 by the European morning. GBP/USD continued to push lower toward 1.3400 in the Asian session on Thursday after closing the previous two days in negative territory. The pair regains its traction in the early European session and trades marginally lower on the day at around 1.3450. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Thursday that he agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that exchange rates should be set by the market. Meanwhile, Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said that he wants to meet with Bessent to conduct ministerial talks and reiterated that they will continue to demand that the US reconsiders tariff measures. USD/JPY builds on its weekly gains and trades above 145.50, rising about 0.5% on the day. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

The EUR/GBP cross remains under selling pressure around 0.8375 during the early European session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) due to weak Eurozone data. Later on Thursday, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is set to speak.

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The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) due to weak Eurozone data. Later on Thursday, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is set to speak.Data released by the German Statistics Office on Wednesday showed that the Unemployment Rate in Germany remained steady at 6.3% in April. Meanwhile, Unemployment Change rose by 34K in April versus 4K prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 11K. The downbeat data strengthens the case for further European Central Bank (ECB) easing in June, which drags the shared currency lower.ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said more rate cuts could be on the way, with little sign at present of upward pressure on consumer prices. Rothschild Wealth Management analyst Bastian Freitag expected that the ECB will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next week, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.00%.On the other hand, the unexpectedly strong UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Retail Sales have prompted investors to dial back hopes for a BoE rate cut in August. This, in turn, could provide some support to the GBP and act as a headwind for the cross. The chance of a BoE rate cut in August was reduced to 40% by investors, down from 60% before the inflation data, according to Reuters. However, interest rate futures pricing suggested investors saw about 37 basis points (bps) of BoE rate reductions by the end of 2025. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Thursday that he “wants to meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this time” to conduct ministerial talks.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Thursday that he “wants to meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this time” to conduct ministerial talks.Additional commentsWill continue demanding US to reconsider tariff measures.

Will conduct ministerial talks on trade expansion, economic security cooperation.

Aware of US court decision to block Trump tariffs.

Will examine the details and potential impact on Japan. Related news Japan’s Kato: Agreed with Bessent that exchange rate should be set by the market GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Sticks to strong intraday gains below 196.00 amid notable JPY weakness Japanese Yen maintains its offered tone as tariff-block news undermines safe-haven assets

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.64 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $61.62.

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The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3435 during the early European session on Thursday. The Greenback strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) after the US trade court blocks US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.

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The Greenback strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) after the US trade court blocks US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. The preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the first quarter (Q1) will be the highlight later on Thursday. The summary of the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggested that uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials said meeting its dual goals of full employment and low inflation has been complicated due to policy uncertainty. Fed policymakers emphasized the need to keep interest rates on hold for some time, as policy shifts in the US cloud the economic outlook.Early Thursday, a US federal court blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect. A federal trade court ruled that an emergency law invoked by the White House does not give Trump unilateral authority to impose tariffs on nearly every country. This headline provides some support for the Greenback and acts as a headwind for the major pair. The chance of more Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts falls as food inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) has risen for the fourth consecutive month, indicating signs of sticky inflation. Barclays analysts no longer expect the BoE to cut rates in June and now forecast the base rate will drop to 3.5 % by February 2026, rather than by the end of this year as previously predicted. A less dovish stance from the UK central bank might help limit the GBP’s losses in the near term. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Thursday that he “agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that exchange rate should be set by the market.”

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Thursday that he “agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that exchange rate should be set by the market.”Additional quotesNo talk of exchange rate target with Bessent.

Group of Severn (G7) finance ministers saw positive signs in tariff talks.Market reactionUSD/JPY has bounced back to test 146.00 on these comments, adding 0.83% on the day, as of writing. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.52% 0.31% 0.85% 0.12% 0.09% 0.50% 0.80% EUR -0.52% -0.19% 0.33% -0.39% -0.36% -0.00% 0.27% GBP -0.31% 0.19% 0.51% -0.18% -0.15% 0.18% 0.39% JPY -0.85% -0.33% -0.51% -0.73% -0.77% -0.38% -0.14% CAD -0.12% 0.39% 0.18% 0.73% -0.08% 0.39% 0.57% AUD -0.09% 0.36% 0.15% 0.77% 0.08% 0.36% 0.53% NZD -0.50% 0.00% -0.18% 0.38% -0.39% -0.36% 0.18% CHF -0.80% -0.27% -0.39% 0.14% -0.57% -0.53% -0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The GBP/JPY cross prolonged its weekly uptrend for the fourth straight day on Thursday and climbed to the 196.30 area during the Asian session, back closer to a multi-month peak touched earlier this May.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY jumps back closer to the multi-month top in reaction to the tariffs-block news.BoJ rate hike bets and the prevalent GBP selling bias keep a lid on any further gains.The setup favors bulls and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciation. The GBP/JPY cross prolonged its weekly uptrend for the fourth straight day on Thursday and climbed to the 196.30 area during the Asian session, back closer to a multi-month peak touched earlier this May. Spot prices, however, retreat around 50 pips from the daily swing high and currently trade around the 195.85-195.80 region, up 0.40% for the day. The US tariffs-block news led to a sharp bounce in risk trade and weighs heavily on the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY), which, in turn, assists the GBP/JPY cross to attract some follow-through buying. However, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates help limit JPY losses. Furthermore, a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) weighs on the British Pound (GBP) and contributes to capping the currency pair. From a technical perspective, the GBP/JPY cross recently showed some resilience below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The subsequent move-up and positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. However, bulls might wait for a sustained strength beyond the monthly swing high, around the 196.40 area, before placing fresh bets.The GBP/JPY cross might then aim to reclaim the 197.00 round figure for the first time since January. The momentum could extend further towards the 197.40-197.50 intermediate hurdle en route to the 198.00 mark and the 198.25 region, or the year-to-date high. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of the recent uptrend witnessed over the past two months or so.On the flip side, any further pullback could find some support and attract some dip-buyers near the 195.50-195.40 horizontal zone, which, in turn, should help limit the downside for the GBP/JPY cross near the 195.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling below the Asian session low, around the 194.85 region, might trigger some long-unwinding and drag spot prices to the 194.40-194.35 intermediate support en route to the 194.00 mark.GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.45% 0.28% 0.69% 0.11% 0.05% 0.45% 0.74% EUR -0.45% -0.16% 0.25% -0.34% -0.33% -0.00% 0.28% GBP -0.28% 0.16% 0.41% -0.17% -0.16% 0.15% 0.36% JPY -0.69% -0.25% -0.41% -0.61% -0.67% -0.30% -0.07% CAD -0.11% 0.34% 0.17% 0.61% -0.11% 0.35% 0.52% AUD -0.05% 0.33% 0.16% 0.67% 0.11% 0.34% 0.51% NZD -0.45% 0.00% -0.15% 0.30% -0.35% -0.34% 0.18% CHF -0.74% -0.28% -0.36% 0.07% -0.52% -0.51% -0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

FX option expiries for May 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1200 1.4b1.1250 942m1.1500 643mUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 141.00 870m142.20 804m145.00 2.7b146.30 911mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6375 662m0.6550 471mUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3730 447m1.3925 430m1.3965 495mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5975 440m

EUR/JPY has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 164.00 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}EUR/JPY appreciates as the Japanese Yen attracts sellers following a US federal court’s halting of Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs.The Trump administration has appealed against the court’s ruling; it appears unlikely to back down.ECB’s Klaas Knot noted that the current Eurozone inflation outlook challenges the central bank to engage in direct moves.EUR/JPY has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 164.00 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross receives support as the Japanese Yen (JPY) loses ground due to dampened safe-haven demand after a US federal court’s blocking President Donald Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect.A three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan ruled that Trump lacked the authority and declared the executive orders issued on 2 April unlawful. The Trump administration put higher duties on imports from countries with large trade surpluses, such as China and the European Union, by introducing a 10% baseline tariff on most goods entering the US. Trump appears unlikely to back down, posting on his social media app Truth Social that he is on a "Mission from God".The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to monitor potential spillover effects on shorter-maturity debt markets following rising super-long-term bond yields. Ueda reflected growing caution about financial stability risks amid shifting interest rate dynamics in Japan. Ueda has said earlier that the BoJ is ready to adjust monetary policy as needed to meet its inflation targets.However, the EUR/JPY cross also appreciated as the Euro (EUR) draws support from easing trade tension between the United States and the European Union (EU). Last week, President Trump extended the tariff deadline on imports from the EU from June 1 to July 9. Meanwhile, the Brussels also agreed to accelerate trade talks with the United States to avoid a transatlantic trade war.European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of the Dutch central bank De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), Klaas Knot, said on Wednesday that the current European inflation outlook is murky, challenging the central bank to engage in direct moves. On Tuesday, ECB policymaker and French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau noted that the 0.6% inflation rate in France is a “very encouraging sign of disinflation in action” and stated that the “policy normalization in the Euro area is probably not complete”. Related news Court cracks the tariff dam: markets surf the euphoria wave US Dollar Index rises to near 100.50 after court ruling Trump tariffs, Q1 GDP data eyed ECB survey: Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations stretch to 3.1% over next 12 months in April

Japan Consumer Confidence Index registered at 32.8 above expectations (31.8) in May

Gold price (XAU/USD) touched a one-and-a-half week low, around the $3,246-3,245 area during the Asian session on Thursday in reaction to the news that a federal court blocked US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs from going into effect.

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The ruling led to a sharp bounce in risk trade and weighed heavily on traditional safe-haven assets, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the bullion for the fourth consecutive day. The tariffs-block news comes on top of hawkish FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to attract strong follow-through buying and contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding Gold price. That said, the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and the worsening US fiscal situation keep a lid on the market optimism and the USD, assisting the XAU/USD pair to trim a part of intraday losses. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to lose ground amid a combination of negative factorsA US federal court on Wednesday blocked US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect. The Court of International Trade ruled that the president overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from every country in the world.Investors cheered the court's order, which is evident from a sharp rise in the equity markets on Thursday. This, in turn, is seen weighing heavily on traditional safe-haven assets and dragging the Gold price lower for the fourth successive day amid a strong follow-through US Dollar buying.The better-than-expected US macro data this week calmed recession fears. Adding to this, Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting released on Wednesday revealed a consensus to maintain the wait-and-see stance on rates amid the uncertainty over the economic outlook and trade policies. Fed officials highlighted the need to keep interest rates on hold for some time until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer. This, in turn, lifts the USD Index (DXY) beyond the 100 mark and undermines the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly moving to restrict the sale of critical US technologies, including those used in the manufacturing of semiconductors, and certain chemicals, to China. This, along with persistent geopolitical risks, offers support to the XAU/USD pair. Israel's defence minister Israel Katz announced on Wednesday that their fighter jets struck the target of the Houthi militant group at Yemen’s Sanaa airport for the second time in a month. This strike comes after the Houthis had fired several missiles at Israel in recent days.Russia has proposed holding the next round of direct peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 amid rising pressure from Trump to end the war. Russian sources said that President Vladimir Putin wants a written pledge by Western powers not to enlarge the US-led NATO alliance eastwards. Traders now look forward to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the Prelim Q1 GDP print, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales. The focus, however, remains on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. Gold price technical setup favors bearish traders and suggests that any attempted recovery could be sold intoFrom a technical perspective, the intraday downfall stalls near the 50% retracement level of the recent goodish recovery from the monthly swing low. However, Wednesday's breakdown below a short-term ascending trend line and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favor bearish traders. Adding to this, negative oscillators on the said timeframe suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Hence, any subsequent recovery is more likely to confront a stiff barrier and remain capped ahead of the $3,300 mark, or the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, some follow-through buying, leading to a further move beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the Gold rice to the $3,324-3,325 hurdle en route to the next relevant resistance near the $3,345-3,350 supply zone.On the flip side, bearish traders might now wait for sustained weakness below the Asian session low, around the $3,246-3,245 region (50% retracement level), before placing fresh bets. The subsequent fall might then drag the Gold price to the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level, around the $3,215 region. The downward trajectory could extend towards the $3,200 round figure before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the $3,180 support. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The NZD/USD pair weakens to near 0.5935 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday bolstered by a firmer US Dollar (USD). The renewed trade tensions between the United States (US) and China weigh on the China-proxy Kiwi.

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This action is a response to China’s recent restrictions on exports of critical minerals to the US, a decision by Beijing that has threatened to cripple US company supply chains. Signs of escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies exert some selling pressure on the NZD as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25%, as widely expected. However, the signal that the RBNZ might be nearer to an end of easing than some in the market had hoped for might help limit the Kiwi’s losses. Markets scaled back the possibility of an RBNZ rate cut at the next meeting in July to around 36%, from 60% previously.  On the Greenback’s front, Reuters reported early Thursday that a US federal court blocked US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect. A federal trade court ruled Trump didn't have the authority to impose across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the US than they buy. The USD strengthens broadly following the report. Traders will closely monitor the preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the first quarter (Q1), which will be released later on Thursday. If the report shows weaker-than-expected outcomes, this could undermine the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the pair.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,001.15 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,038.44 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 104,990.70 per tola from INR 105,422.60 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,001.15 10 Grams 90,014.09 Tola 104,990.70 Troy Ounce 279,967.20   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Gold daily market movers: Bullion retreats on strong US Dollar and high US yields US Treasury bond yields are rising as the 10-year Treasury note yield increases by four and a half basis points (bps) to 4.493%. Meanwhile, US real yields also advance four bps at 2.171%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, rises over 0.33% to 99.89, fueled by an improvement in Consumer Confidence data, which grew the most in four years, revealed the Conference Board . New York Fed President John Williams said that inflation expectations are well-anchored and added that he wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent, as that could become permanent. Data revealed that Gold imports to Switzerland from the US rose to its highest level since at least 2012 in April. Besides this, Reuters revealed that “China's net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April from March, and were the highest since March 2024, data showed.” Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 45 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its two-day losing streak, trading around $33.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a neutral bias, as the price of the precious metal consolidates within a rectangular pattern.

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Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a neutral bias, as the price of the precious metal consolidates within a rectangular pattern.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly above the 50 level, indicating a potential for a bullish bias to emerge. Additionally, the Silver price is hovering around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), further highlighting that the short-term momentum is impartial.Silver price could retest the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of $33.10, followed by the 50-day EMA at $32.69. A break below these levels could weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the price of the grey metal to navigate the area around the lower boundary of the rectangle at $31.80, followed by the six-week low at $31.65, which was recorded on May 15.On the upside, the XAG/USD pair could explore the region around the rectangle’s upper boundary at $33.60, aligned with the seven-week high at $33.69, reached on April 24. A break above this crucial resistance zone could cause the emergence of the bullish bias and lead the Silver price to approach the seven-month high of $34.59, last seen on March 28.XAG/USD: Daily Chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its gains for the third successive day and trading more than 0.50% higher around 100.30 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index continues to advance as a federal court blocked Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect.US Gross Domestic Product Annualized is expected to fall again by 0.3% in the first quarter.FOMC Meeting Minutes indicated that Fed officials broadly agreed that heightened economic uncertainty warranted a cautious approach to adjusting rates.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its gains for the third successive day and trading more than 0.50% higher around 100.30 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Traders are likely awaiting the preliminary US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices QoQ, and Initial Jobless Claims, scheduled to be released later in the North American session.The Greenback receives support after a US federal court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. A three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan ruled that Trump lacked the authority and declared the move unconstitutional and beyond his presidential authority.Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Minutes for the latest policy meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that Federal Reserve (Fed) officials broadly agreed that heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments. Fed officials emphasized the need to keep interest rates unchanged for some time, as recent policy shifts cloud the US economic outlook.Market participants look forward to Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which is on the way to the Senate floor for voting. The US fiscal deficit is expected to widen as the Bill’s provisions could increase the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. Higher bond yields can keep borrowing costs higher for consumers, businesses, and governments. Trump’s bill is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.36% 0.22% 0.58% 0.08% 0.05% 0.50% 0.61% EUR -0.36% -0.12% 0.23% -0.27% -0.24% 0.14% 0.24% GBP -0.22% 0.12% 0.35% -0.13% -0.10% 0.25% 0.28% JPY -0.58% -0.23% -0.35% -0.51% -0.55% -0.14% -0.08% CAD -0.08% 0.27% 0.13% 0.51% -0.08% 0.42% 0.41% AUD -0.05% 0.24% 0.10% 0.55% 0.08% 0.38% 0.38% NZD -0.50% -0.14% -0.25% 0.14% -0.42% -0.38% -0.00% CHF -0.61% -0.24% -0.28% 0.08% -0.41% -0.38% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The USD/CHF pair regains positive traction following the previous day's directionless price move and jumps to over a one-week high, around the 0.8345-0.8350 area during the Asian session Thursday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CHF resumes its weekly uptrend after a US federal court blocked Trump's tariffs.Wednesday's hawkish FOMC Minutes boosts the USD and contributes to the move up. Traders now look forward to Thursday’s US macro data for short-term opportunities. The USD/CHF pair regains positive traction following the previous day's directionless price move and jumps to over a one-week high, around the 0.8345-0.8350 area during the Asian session Thursday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of a multi-day-old uptrend from sub-0.8200 levels, or a nearly three-week low touched on Monday. The global risk sentiment gets a strong boost after the Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked US President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal trade tariffs. Wall Street futures and equities across Asia rise sharply in reaction to the court ruling, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF). This along with a strong follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair. In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, scales higher for the third straight day in the wake of the tariff-block news and hawkish FOMC Minuets released on Wednesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials agreed to maintain the wait-and-see approach on interest rates amid the uncertainty about the economic outlook and trade policies. This tempers hopes for more aggressive Fed rate cuts and continues to push the USD higher. However, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will deliver at least two 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts by the end of this year. This, in turn, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and caps the USD/CHF pair. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the Prelim Q1 GDP print, the usual Weekly Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales data – for short-term trading opportunities. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.39% 0.25% 0.63% 0.10% 0.12% 0.53% 0.68% EUR -0.39% -0.13% 0.23% -0.29% -0.20% 0.13% 0.28% GBP -0.25% 0.13% 0.35% -0.15% -0.06% 0.25% 0.33% JPY -0.63% -0.23% -0.35% -0.53% -0.52% -0.15% -0.04% CAD -0.10% 0.29% 0.15% 0.53% -0.03% 0.43% 0.47% AUD -0.12% 0.20% 0.06% 0.52% 0.03% 0.34% 0.39% NZD -0.53% -0.13% -0.25% 0.15% -0.43% -0.34% 0.05% CHF -0.68% -0.28% -0.33% 0.04% -0.47% -0.39% -0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.1240 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD remains subdued as the US Dollar advances after a federal court halted Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect.US Gross Domestic Product Annualized is expected to fall again by 0.3% in the first quarter.ECB’s Klaas Knot noted that the current inflation outlook in Europe challenges the central bank to engage in direct moves.EUR/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.1240 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The preliminary US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices QoQ, and Initial Jobless Claims, scheduled to be released later in the day.The EUR/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground following a decision by a US federal court on Wednesday to block US President Donald Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. A three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan ruled that Trump lacked the authority and declared the move unconstitutional and beyond presidential authority.On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Minutes for the latest policy indicated that Federal Reserve (Fed) officials broadly agreed that heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments. Fed officials emphasized the need to keep interest rates unchanged for some time, as recent policy shifts cloud the US economic outlook.However, the downside of the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) could be restrained due to easing trade tension between the United States and the European Union (EU). Last week, President Trump extended the tariff deadline on imports from the EU from June 1 to July 9.The Brussels agreed on Monday to accelerate trade talks with the United States to avoid a transatlantic trade war. On Tuesday, Trump expressed his satisfaction in a post on Truth Social, noting that the EU is speeding up the process toward reaching a trade deal with the US. “I have just been informed that the EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will”, Trump wrote.On Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of the Dutch central bank De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), Klaas Knot, said that the current European inflation outlook is gloomy, challenging the central bank to engage in direct moves. Knot added that the medium-term inflation outlook is more ambiguous, which may cause considerable issues. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Thursday in reaction to the news that a US federal court blocked President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Thursday in reaction to the news that a US federal court blocked President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect. The development boosts investors' confidence and triggers a fresh wave of the risk-on trade, which, in turn, weighs heavily on traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Apart from this, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) wait-and-see approach remains supportive of a strong follow-through US Dollar (USD) move higher and assists the USD/JPY pair to prolong its weekly uptrend for the fourth consecutive day. Moreover, demand at an auction of 40-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) on Wednesday fell to the lowest since July and pointed to worries about the debt load in Japan. This leads to a further steep decline in the longest JGB yields and turns out to be another factor driving flows away from the JPY. Meanwhile, the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates marks a big divergence in comparison to bets that the Fed will lower borrowing costs further in 2025. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the lower-yielding JPY and cap the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen bears seize control on news that a US federal court blocked Trump's tariffsUS President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal trade tariffs were blocked by the Court of International Trade on Wednesday. The court ruled that the president overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs on goods from nearly every country in the world.The global risk sentiment gets a strong lift following the court's order, with Wall Street futures and equities across Asia rising sharply on Thursday. This undermines demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen, during the Asian session. Demand at an auction of Japan's longest-tenor bonds on Wednesday fell to the lowest since July and added to worries about the fiscal health of the economy. This further drives flows away from the JPY and pushes the USD/JPY pair higher for the fourth straight day. Meanwhile, traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates again this year amid signs of broadening inflation in Japan. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index on Friday. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May 6-7 policy meeting released on Wednesday revealed a consensus to maintain the wait-and-see approach on interest rates amid the uncertainty about the economic outlook and trade policies. The outlook supports the US Dollar. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool, however, indicates a greater chance that the US central bank might still deliver at least two 25 basis point rate cuts this year. This marks a big divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations and favors the JPY bulls. Market participants now look forward to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the Prelim Q1 GDP print, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales data. This, along with Fedspeaks, might influence the USD demand. USD/JPY needs to find acceptance above 146.00 to support prospects for further gainsFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair stalls its strong intraday move up near the 50% retracement level of the recent downfall from the monthly peak amid a slightly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on hourly charts. That said, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for an extension of the weekly uptrend. Hence, any corrective pullback below the 145.35 region, or the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 145.00 psychological mark. The latter is near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which if broken will negate the near-term positive outlook.On the flip side, the USD/JPY bulls might now await sustained strength and acceptance above the 146.00 mark before placing fresh bets. Spot prices might then accelerate the positive move towards the 146.70-146.75 intermediate hurdle en route to the 147.00 round figure and the next relevant barrier near the 147.60 supply zone. Some follow-through buying should allow the currency pair to climb further beyond the 148.00 mark, towards the monthly swing high, around the 148.65 region. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Thursday. The month-end US Dollar (USD) demand and the headline surrounding the US court blocking US President Donald Trump's tariffs provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the Indian currency.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indian Rupee trades flat in Thursday’s Asian session. The month-end US Dollar bid and Trump’s headline weigh on the INR. The second estimate of the US Q1 GDP report will be in the spotlight later on Thursday. The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Thursday. The month-end US Dollar (USD) demand and the headline surrounding the US court blocking US President Donald Trump's tariffs provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the Indian currency. Additionally, a rise in crude oil prices could exert some selling pressure on the Indian currency, as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Nonetheless, concerns over US trade and fiscal policies could undermine investor confidence in US assets and prompt the “Sell America” theme”. This might drag the USD lower in the near term. Traders await the release of the second estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the first quarter (Q1), which will take center stage later on Thursday. Also, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales will be released. The Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak later in the day, including Thomas Barkin, Austan Goolsbee, Adriana Kugler, and Mary Daly. Indian Rupee steadies after US court blocks Trump's tariffsIndia’s Industrial Output grew 2.7% YoY in April, compared to a rise of 3.0% in May, according to the Release and Implementation Program Statistics Department. The figure came in better than the expectation of 2.0%. India’s Manufacturing Output rose 3.4% YoY in April versus 4.0% prior (revised from 3.0%), stronger than the 3.0% expected. A US federal court on Wednesday blocked US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect. A federal trade court ruled Trump didn't have the authority to impose across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the US than they buy, per Reuters.The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting that ended May 7 said that the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials broadly agreed that heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments. Fed officials highlighted the need to keep interest rates on hold for some time, as policy shifts in the US cloud the economic outlook.USD/INR remains bearish as sellers defend the 100-day EMA resistanceThe Indian Rupee trades on a flat note on the day. The bearish outlook of the USD/INR pair prevails, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, suggesting that further consolidation cannot be ruled out.The first downside target to watch is 84.78, the low of May 26. A clean break below the mentioned level could open the door for a drop toward 84.61, the low of May 12. The next contention level is located at 84.00, the psychological level and the lower limit of the trend channel.On the flip side, the crucial resistance level is seen at 85.55, the 100-day EMA. Any follow-through buying could set the stage for another push toward 85.75, the upper boundary of the trend channel, en route to 85.10, the high of May 22.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.



The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued for the fourth successive session on Thursday, following disappointing Private Capital Expenditure data for the first quarter.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar depreciates as the US Dollar is trading more than 0.50% higher on Thursday.Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure declined by 0.1% in Q1, against the expected increase of 0.5%.A US federal court has blocked President Trump’s proposed "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect.The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued for the fourth successive session on Thursday, following disappointing Private Capital Expenditure data for the first quarter. The AUD/USD pair extends its losses as the US Dollar (USD) is trading higher after a US federal court blocked US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. A Reuters report showed that a federal trade court ruled Trump didn't have the authority to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from countries that sell more to the US.The Trump administration has halted some sales of jet engines, semiconductors, and certain chemicals to China. The New York Times cited two familiar sources saying that this action is a response to China’s recent export restrictions on exports of critical minerals to the US. Any change in Chinese markets could impact the Australian Dollar as Australia and China are close trade partners.The AUD could face challenges as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver more rate cuts in the upcoming policy meetings. The central bank acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and warned that US-China trade barriers pose downside risks to economic growth. Governor Michele Bullock stated that the RBA is prepared to take additional action if the economic outlook deteriorates sharply, raising the prospect of future rate cuts.Australian Dollar declines as US Dollar continues to advance ahead of Q1 GDP data releaseThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, is trading more than 0.50% higher at 100.40 at the time of writing. Traders likely await the preliminary US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices QoQ, and Initial Jobless Claims, scheduled to be released on Thursday.Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Minutes for the latest policy meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that Federal Reserve (Fed) officials broadly agreed that heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments. Fed officials emphasized the need to keep interest rates unchanged for some time, as recent policy shifts cloud the US economic outlook.The US fiscal deficit could increase further when Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” goes through the Senate floor, increasing the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. Higher bond yields can keep borrowing costs higher for consumers, businesses, and governments. Trump’s bill is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, as it would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).US Senator Ron Johnson told CNN on Sunday that "I think we have enough votes to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit.” Johnson added, “My primary focus now is spending. This is completely unacceptable. Current projections are a $2.2 trillion per year deficit.”Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, following similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.The US Dollar faced challenges due to improved risk-on sentiment following the alleviation of trade tensions between the United States and the European Union (EU). President Trump extended the tariff deadline on imports from the EU from June 1 to July 9.China Industrial Profits rose 3% year-over-year in April, following a previous growth of 2.6%. Additionally, the profits increased 1.4% YoY in the first four months of 2025, advancing from 0.8% growth in the January–March period. The Global Times, a Chinese state media outlet, reported that positive developments contributed to a rise in industrial profits in April.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that monthly inflation, in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers, steadied at 2.4% year-over-year in April, surpassing the expected 2.3% increase.Australian Dollar falls below ascending channel toward 0.6400, 50-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6410 on Thursday, with a weakening bullish bias. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair has broken below the ascending channel’s lower boundary. The short-term price momentum also weakens as the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 50 mark, suggesting neutral bias is in play.The AUD/USD pair could attempt to regain ground to stay within the ascending channel and test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6437, followed by a six-month high at 0.6537, which was recorded on May 26. A breach above this level could reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6640.On the downside, the 50-day EMA at 0.6382 appears as the initial support. A break below this level could weaken the medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around 0.5914, the lowest since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.40% 0.25% 0.69% 0.11% 0.23% 0.58% 0.70% EUR -0.40% -0.14% 0.30% -0.28% -0.11% 0.17% 0.29% GBP -0.25% 0.14% 0.43% -0.13% 0.04% 0.30% 0.34% JPY -0.69% -0.30% -0.43% -0.56% -0.47% -0.15% -0.09% CAD -0.11% 0.28% 0.13% 0.56% 0.06% 0.47% 0.47% AUD -0.23% 0.11% -0.04% 0.47% -0.06% 0.29% 0.30% NZD -0.58% -0.17% -0.30% 0.15% -0.47% -0.29% 0.00% CHF -0.70% -0.29% -0.34% 0.09% -0.47% -0.30% -0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Australia Private Capital Expenditure registered at -0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in 1Q

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1907 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1894 and 7.2033 Reuters estimate.

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Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Thursday that his basic position is to strongly request review of tariff policy.

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Our basic position is to strongly request review of tariff policy.Market reaction  At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.74% higher on the day to trade at 145.91.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.15 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges higher on supply concerns after OPEC+ agreed to leave their output policy unchanged. 

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The WTI price edges higher on supply concerns after OPEC+ agreed to leave their output policy unchanged. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to leave their formal output quotas unchanged. OPEC+ nations said they decided to “reaffirm the level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries” as agreed during the December meeting. The WTI price gains momentum after the meeting. A separate meeting on Saturday of OPEC+ countries is expected to decide on an increase in oil output for July.The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending May 23 fell by 4.236 million barrels, compared to a rise of 2.499 million barrels in the previous week. So far this year, crude oil inventories are up more than 21 million barrels, according to calculations of API data.Optimism that trade deals will brighten the US economic outlook could boost the Greenback. This, in turn, might weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Oil traders will take more cues from the EIA Crude Oil Stocks weekly report due later on Thursday, along with the second estimate of the US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.5%)

Austria’s version of the FBI, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, claimed Iran is continuing with its active nuclear weapons program, which it says can be used to launch missiles over long distances, per Fox News. 

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In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

On Wednesday, a US federal court blocked US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect, ruling that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy. per Reuters. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Wednesday, a US federal court blocked US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect, ruling that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy. per Reuters. Market reaction The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.19% higher on the day at 100.08, as of writing. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥714.9B to ¥309.3B in May 23

The US President Donald Trump's administration has paused some sales to China of critical US technologies, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors, and certain chemicals., per New York Times.

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The USD/CAD pair edges higher to near 1.3835 during the early Asian session on Thursday, bolstered by a stronger US Dollar (USD).

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The second estimate of the US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate will take center stage later in the day, followed by the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales.Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) latest policy meeting showed on Wednesday that Federal Reserve (Fed) officials broadly agreed that heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments. Fed officials highlighted the need to keep interest rates on hold for some time, as policy shifts in the US cloud the economic outlook. The upbeat US economic data released earlier this week also boosted the Greenback. The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 98.0 in May from 86.0 in April (revised from 85.7).Traders will also keep an eye on the Canadian GDP data on Friday for fresh impetus. The Canadian GDP is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the first quarter. This figure could guide expectations for the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy decision.Meanwhile, a rise in Crude Oil prices might underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the upside for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.  Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

GBP/USD pared further gains on Wednesday, stumbling for a second straight session and easing back below 1.3500 after a failed attempt to recapture 1.3600 earlier this week.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby said on Thursday that he sees near-term growth headwinds.

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There's weaker demand and weaker inflation pressures than there were in February.
There are a lot of different ways that this could play out from here.
There is uncertainty around where those tariffs will land, they could be very different.Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway noted that he’s probably a little more pessimistic on the country's medium-term productivity performance. Additionally, RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk forecast a modest increase in house prices due to rate cuts. Silk added that New Zealand house prices are at the top end of our sustainable house price range.Market reaction At the time of writing, the NZD/USD pair is trading 0.08% higher on the day to trade at 0.5971. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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