Gold price bounced off weekly lows of $3,245 and rose past $3,300 on Thursday, helped by a softer jobs report in the United States (US), while markets cheered a US court decision to block US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,318 and gains 0.94%.
United States 7-Year Note Auction up to 4.194% from previous 4.123%
According to a statement by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Fed Chair Jerome Powell met with United States (US) President Donald Trump on Thursday, where the head of the Fed reiterated that the Fed's decisions on monetary policy are based on trackable data from the US economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) whipsawed through the overnight session and into Wednesday’s trading window, with investors piling back into the tech rally after Nvidia (NVDA) posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings in Q1.
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -2.795M below forecasts (1M) in May 23
United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.22% to 4.215%
On Thursday, the Banco de México (Banxico) revealed its latest meeting minutes, in which the central bank decided to lower interest rates by 50 basis points to 8.50% at its May 15 meeting.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that they could return to a situation where interest rates could come down if tariffs are avoided by a deal of otherwise, per Reuters.
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (99B) in May 23: Actual (101B)
Crude markets only have a very narrow path towards higher prices. In the imminent term, CTA selling activity will weigh on price action into the OPEC meeting.
BoC to keep the policy rate on hold at its 4 June meeting (instead of a 25bps cut). With the policy rate at neutral, BoC has been unwilling to ease more unless growth goes further south.
The NZD/USD pair advances to near 0.5990 during North American trading hours on Thursday after recovering initial losses.
CTAs will still buy Gold regardless of any scenario this coming week. We expect imminent algo buying activity to persist and accelerate into NFP, potentially tallying up to a massive +30% of algos' max size, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
The Indian Rupee (INR) is showing signs of stability against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the USD/INR pair trading near 85.41. This level reflects consolidation within a broader correction range following the volatile price action in May.
United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) dipped from previous -0.6% to -2.5% in April
United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) registered at -6.3%, below expectations (-1%) in April
According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the advanced GDP Growth Rate is expected to have contracted by 0.1% in the January-March period. The readings show a marked pullback from the prior quarter’s 2.4% expansion.
South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (7.25%)
Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $678.5B vs $667.5B
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance climbed to 240K for the week ending May 24, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print came in above initial estimates and the previous week's revised tally of 226K (from 227K).
Canada Current Account registered at -2.13B above expectations (-3.25B) in 1Q
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 240K, above expectations (230K) in May 23
United States Continuing Jobless Claims above forecasts (1.9M) in May 16: Actual (1.919M)
United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index in line with forecasts (3.7%) in 1Q
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average down to 230.75K in May 23 from previous 231.5K
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) came in at 3.4% below forecasts (3.5%) in 1Q
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) in line with forecasts (3.6%) in 1Q
United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at -0.2%, above expectations (-0.3%) in 1Q
Canada Current Account came in at -2.1B, above forecasts (-3.25B) in 1Q
In an interview with Fox Business Network on Thursday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said that he is confident in the success of the tariff ruling appeal, per Reuters.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) swings between mild gains and losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as markets digest a court ruling that blocks US President Donald Trump from imposing tariffs on imports.
The US Dollar rallied earlier on Thursday, to find sellers at the 0.8345 area.
Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming the G10 currencies with a modest 0.2% decline vs. the US Dollar (USD), entering Thursday’s NA session with an impressive recovery from earlier sentiment-driven losses related to headlines on trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The USD/JPY pair retreats to near 144.90 during European trading hours on Thursday after facing stiff resistance above 146.00.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is also entering Thursday’s NA session flat vs. the USD, trading in tandem with its G10 peers and responding headline risk related to trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session nearly flat against the US Dollar (USD), having recovered from sizeable Asian session losses driven by headlines related to trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has picked up—marginally—on the back of the latest twist in the tariff saga but the gains are minimal relative to yesterday’s close.
Late yesterday, a US court blocked a large part of President Trump’s tariff plans, striking down reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs.
The US Dollar has given away all the ground taken after the court ruling against US trade tariffs, and is trading with moderate losses ahead of the US Session opening, as the Canadian Dollar draws support from the rebound in Oil prices.A US federal court ruled on Wednesday that the US Congress has t
AUD/USD is holding above key support at 0.6400 but faces near-term resistance between 0.6500-0.6540, BBH FX analysts report.
Gold price (XAU/USD) claws back the majority of its initial losses in Thursday’s European trading session, recovers to near $3,300 from the weekly low of $3,245 posted earlier in the day.
Increase in momentum is likely to lead to US Dollar (USD) advance, potentially to 7.2130. In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is expected to strengthen; the significant resistance at 147.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, price action suggests further USD upside; too early to tell whether 147.50 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to continue to trade sideways, most likely in a range of 0.5925/0.5975. In the longer run, upward momentum has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) could edge below 0.6400 against US Dollar (USD); the next support at 0.6380 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
One might have expected EUR/CHF to trade a little higher on this tariff ruling and the decent rally in equity markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.25%, aligning with market expectations. However, the tone of the meeting suggests a shift away from a dovish stance.
It's interesting to see EUR/GBP still trading quite softly despite some better news on global trade, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade with a downward bias toward 1.3395 vs US Dollar (USD); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely.
FX markets should focus on two themes today: the US Court of International Trade ruling that the majority of President Trump's tariffs are illegal, and insights from the minutes of the 7 May FOMC meeting, which suggest that dollar selling in April was driven by hedging rather than outright sales of
The Aussie Dollar bounced up right above the 0.6400 psychological level on Thursday and is trading 0.30% higher on the day, with a retest of the 0.6450 resistance area on the cards, as the US Dollar rally loses steam.The Greenback appreciated across the board during late Wednesday and Thursday’s Asi
Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) rose from previous -1.5% to -1.1% in March
Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) down to -1.6% in March from previous -0.4%
Shorts in USD/JPY continued to get squeezed, from month-end USD buy flows to US trade court’s ruling on Trump tariffs partially helped to restore some credibility to the system, which has been undermined by the unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs.
Copper inventories on the LME fell to the lowest level in almost two years, with withdrawals continuing at warehouses in Rotterdam. Thousands of tonnes of Copper have been withdrawn over the past few trading sessions, with Glencore the key trader behind these requests.
US Dollar's (USD’s) rebound found momentum from a US court ruling, saying that Trump’s unilateral imposition of 'Liberation Day tariffs' under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is invalid.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.
South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.5% in April from previous 0.6%
South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY): 0.5% (April)
As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) for a sixth straight meeting by 25bps to 3.25%.
Italy 5-y Bond Auction: 2.73% vs previous 3.05%
Italy 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.83% to 3.57%
EUR/USD is understandably lower on the US tariff news in that it slightly re-appraises US growth prospects and the risk premium attached to the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
NZD/USD is trading around 0.5960 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair has trimmed its daily losses as a market bias remains neutral.
Italy Trade Balance non-EU down to €2.178B in April from previous €5.958B
Euro (EUR) continued to drift lower amid broad US Dollar (USD) rebound. Pair was last at 1.1250 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Oil markets strengthened yesterday as sanction risks against Russia increase, while the market appears to be losing hope that we’ll see a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. This might’ve led to the eventual lifting of oil sanctions.
WTI Oil prices accelerated their recovery on Thursday, as a US court ruling against Trump’s tariffs boosted hopes for some normalisation in global trade, which will support crude demand.The US Court for International Trade ruled on Wednesday that Trump’s unilateral trade tariffs overstep the US Cong
Further weakness is not ruled out; it is unclear whether Euro (EUR) can break and hold below 1.1200 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, to continue to decline, EUR must first close below 1.1200, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers early losses against the US Dollar (USD), after hitting a bottom of 1.3415, and trades flat around 1.3470 during European trading hours on Thursday.
AUD/JPY continues its winning streak for the fifth successive day, trading around 93.60 during the European hours on Thursday.
USD/CHF gives back the majority of early gains as the US Dollar retreats.
EUR/USD is trading with moderate losses, around 1.1275 at the time of writing, after bouncing up from 1.1213 lows on the back of a significant US Dollar (USD) jump, following a US court ruling against trade tariffs.The three judges from the US Court of International Trade have voted unanimously agai
Italy Consumer Confidence registered at 96.5 above expectations (93) in May
Italy Business Confidence registered at 86.5 above expectations (86.2) in May
Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Thursday, “China and US have used multilateral and bilateral occasions to maintain communications at various levels.”
USD/CAD loses ground after registering gains in the previous two consecutive sessions, trading around 1.3820 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from improved crude Oil prices.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) are showing moderate gains on Thursday, after bouncing up from the support area, at $32.60-32.70 but the broader picture remains mixed with price action contained within recent ranges.The fundamental background is unsupportive today.
Spain Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.6% to 4% in April
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 29:
The EUR/GBP cross remains under selling pressure around 0.8375 during the early European session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) due to weak Eurozone data. Later on Thursday, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is set to speak.
Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Thursday that he “wants to meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this time” to conduct ministerial talks.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.64 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $61.62.
The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3435 during the early European session on Thursday. The Greenback strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) after the US trade court blocks US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Thursday that he “agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that exchange rate should be set by the market.”
The GBP/JPY cross prolonged its weekly uptrend for the fourth straight day on Thursday and climbed to the 196.30 area during the Asian session, back closer to a multi-month peak touched earlier this May.
FX option expiries for May 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.
EUR/JPY has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 164.00 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
Japan Consumer Confidence Index registered at 32.8 above expectations (31.8) in May
Gold price (XAU/USD) touched a one-and-a-half week low, around the $3,246-3,245 area during the Asian session on Thursday in reaction to the news that a federal court blocked US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs from going into effect.
The NZD/USD pair weakens to near 0.5935 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday bolstered by a firmer US Dollar (USD). The renewed trade tensions between the United States (US) and China weigh on the China-proxy Kiwi.
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its two-day losing streak, trading around $33.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a neutral bias, as the price of the precious metal consolidates within a rectangular pattern.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its gains for the third successive day and trading more than 0.50% higher around 100.30 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
The USD/CHF pair regains positive traction following the previous day's directionless price move and jumps to over a one-week high, around the 0.8345-0.8350 area during the Asian session Thursday.
EUR/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.1240 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Thursday in reaction to the news that a US federal court blocked President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect.
The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Thursday. The month-end US Dollar (USD) demand and the headline surrounding the US court blocking US President Donald Trump's tariffs provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the Indian currency.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued for the fourth successive session on Thursday, following disappointing Private Capital Expenditure data for the first quarter.
Australia Private Capital Expenditure registered at -0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in 1Q
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1907 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1894 and 7.2033 Reuters estimate.
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Thursday that his basic position is to strongly request review of tariff policy.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.15 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges higher on supply concerns after OPEC+ agreed to leave their output policy unchanged.
South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.5%)
Austria’s version of the FBI, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, claimed Iran is continuing with its active nuclear weapons program, which it says can be used to launch missiles over long distances, per Fox News.
On Wednesday, a US federal court blocked US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect, ruling that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy. per Reuters.
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥714.9B to ¥309.3B in May 23
The US President Donald Trump's administration has paused some sales to China of critical US technologies, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors, and certain chemicals., per New York Times.
The USD/CAD pair edges higher to near 1.3835 during the early Asian session on Thursday, bolstered by a stronger US Dollar (USD).
GBP/USD pared further gains on Wednesday, stumbling for a second straight session and easing back below 1.3500 after a failed attempt to recapture 1.3600 earlier this week.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby said on Thursday that he sees near-term growth headwinds.