Forex News Timeline

23:45 US Treasury yields climb as minutes. highlight Fed wait-and-see mode
US Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday following the release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes from May 6-7, which revealed the US central bank's concerns about tariffs and their impact on inflation and economic activity.

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On Thursday, the US Treasury is expected to offer $44 billion in 7-year T-notes.US economic data was scarce, although the Richmond Fed reported that manufacturing and service activity continued to show an ongoing economic slowdown in both sectors.Ahead this week, investors are eyeing the release of GDP and labor indicators on Thursday. By Friday, the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to dip slightly. Related news US yields slide as Trump tariff threats rattle markets, fuel ‘Sell America’ trend Breaking: Fed Minutes saw elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook Fed's Williams says wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent US 10-year yield vs. Fed funds rate December 2025 easing expectations
Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

23:38 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock down to -4.236M in May 23 from previous 2.499M
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock down to -4.236M in May 23 from previous 2.499M

22:49 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Stalls below 0.8300 after Fed minutes
The USD/CHF halts its advance after posting back-to-back days of gains that pushed the pair to its weekly high of 0.8290; yet, buyers remain in charge, even though the major is near its opening price at 0.8270.

22:11 Banxico Quarterly Report: Sheds 2025 GDP growth to 0.1%, further easing eyed
Banco de México revealed its Quarterly Report for January –March 2025, in which the central bank revised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward, compared to the last report of 2024.

22:11 Forex Today: US GDP, employment data and Fedspeak next on tap
The US Dollar (USD) maintained its bullish bias unchanged for the second day in a row on Wednesday amid steady optimism on the trade front, while a cautious tone from the FOMC Minutes also collaborated with the daily advance.

The US Dollar (USD) maintained its bullish bias unchanged for the second day in a row on Wednesday amid steady optimism on the trade front, while a cautious tone from the FOMC Minutes also collaborated with the daily advance.Here’s what to watch on Thursday, May 29:The US Dollar Index (DXY) added to Tuesday’s recovery, retargeting the psychological 100.00 barrier amid mixed developments from US yields across the board. The second estimate of Q1 GDP Growth Rate takes centre stage, seconded by the weely Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. In addition, the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee, and Daly are all due to speak.The intense rebound in the Greenback put the EUR/USD under extra downside pressure, testing the 1.1300 support. Next of note on the domestic calendar will be Germany’s Retail Sales and the preliminary Inflation Rate, all expected on May 30.GBP/USD receded to three-day lows, breaking below the 1.3500 contention zone to retest the mid-1.3400s amid the generalised offered stance in the risk-associated space. The next data releases across the Channel will be on June 2, when Mortgage Approvals/Lending are scheduled along with the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Nationwide Housing Prices.Extra weakness in the Japanese currency lifted USD/JPY to multi-day peaks near the 145.00 hurdle. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be the only release on the Japanese docket.AUD/USD built on weekly losses and came close to the key support around the 0.6400 mark, down for the third straight day. The key Private Capital Expenditure reading is due in Oz.The resumption of supply concerns lent support to crude oil and prompted the barrel of WTI to reverse part of the recent weakness and briefly retest the $62.00 mark on Wednesday. Traders, in the meantime, have largely priced in the OPEC+ decision to hike oil output.Gold prices alternated gains with losses around the $3,300 region per troy ounce following alleviating concerns on the trade front and steady geopolitical effervescence. Silver prices added to Tuesday’s retracement, challenging once again the $33.00 zone per ounce.

21:48 EUR/USD slips below 1.13 as Fed turns cautious amid looming stagflationary risk
The EUR/USD retreats below 1.1300 during the North American session as the US Dollar (USD) remains bid ahead following the release of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes. High US bond yields and a slightly sour mood have driven the Greenback higher against most G7 currencies.

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High US bond yields and a slightly sour mood have driven the Greenback higher against most G7 currencies.On May 6-7, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged, citing uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on the economy. The minutes revealed that policymakers were concerned that inflation could be more persistent, fueled by inflation-prone trade policies enacted by the Trump administration.Policymakers acknowledged some stagflation risks as they noted the “Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken.”Therefore, the Fed has taken a cautious approach regarding monetary policy, waiting for the “net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies to become clearer.” It is worth noting that the Fed meeting took place before Trump reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%.Meanwhile, traders bought the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is up 0.26% and is now just shy of testing the 100.00 figure.Tuesday’s upbeat Consumer Confidence report in the US offset a worse-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders report, which felt the impact of US President Donald Trump’s controversial trade policies.Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) Consumer’s Expectation Survey in April revealed that consumers are expecting higher prices, as inflation expectations rose due to high uncertainty over US tariffs. Meanwhile, the ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the central bank is unlikely to lower rates below 1.50%. Lane said, “Rates below 1.5% are clearly accommodative. Going there would only be appropriate in the event of more substantial downside risks to inflation, or a more significant slowdown in the economy. I do not see that at the moment.”EUR/USD daily market movers: Undermined by solid US data, FED minutesUS Treasury bond yields are rising, as the 10-year Treasury note yield increases by four and a half basis points (bps) to 4.493%, a headwind for the EUR/USD pair as the Greenback appreciates further.On Wednesday, the New York Fed President John Williams stated that inflation expectations are well-anchored. He added that he wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent, as that could become permanent.US Consumer Confidence in May rose by 98.0, the highest level seen in the last four years. Other data disappointed investors, as US Durable Goods Orders plunged 6.3% MoM in April, down from March's 7.6% increase but exceeding forecasts of a 7.8% contraction.ECB officials delivered dovish remarks, increasing the chances for a rate cut at the June meeting. Francois Villeroy stated that he does not see inflation picking up in Europe. Meanwhile, Klaas Knot hinted that near-term growth and inflation risks are tilted to the downside.ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey showed that inflation is expected to rise by 3.1%, up from 2.9% predicted a month ago, and well above the ECB’s 2% target.The Unemployment Rate in Germany stood at 6.3% as expected, unchanged from April.Financial market players had fully priced in that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2% at the monetary policy meeting next week.EUR/USD technical outlook: Struggles at 1.14, dives beneath 1.1300EUR/USD uptrend has paused, as the shared currency failed to clear the 1.14 figure and opened the door for the pullback, with sellers eyeing dynamic support at 1.1265, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Nevertheless, they must first clear the 1.1250 psychological level.Although buyers seem to lose some steam, sellers need to clear the May 12 swing low of 1.1064 to declare that the uptrend is questionable, opening the door for a deeper pullback. But momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), remains bullish.On the upside, the EUR/USD can resume its uptrend, with a daily close above 1.1300, which could clear the path to test 1.1350 and a May 27 peak of 1.1407. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

21:45 Dow Jones Industrial Average coils as equities snub Fed Meeting Minutes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is slightly lower on Wednesday, easing to intraday lows near 42,150 as equity traders await key earnings reports from tech heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA).

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Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

21:23 US Dollar Index jitters as Fed Meeting Minutes reveal increasingly-cautious Fed
The latest Meeting Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate meeting on May 6-7 indicate a historically rooted wait-and-see approach. At this meeting, policymakers observed that the US Dollar's (USD) status as a safe haven has recently diminished.

21:22 Gold price steadies near $3,300 after Fed flags stagflation risks in May minutes
Gold prices recovered some ground on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve revealed in the May 6-7 minutes that they see rising inflation and unemployment risks increasing due to the trade war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,300, virtually unchanged.

21:14 GBP/USD looks upward after Fed Meeting Minutes show growing caution
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) rate meeting on May 6-7 revealed that the Fed's wait-and-see approach has deep roots.

20:52 WTI Crude Oil price surges on cautious OPEC+ supply stance
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) convened at its Vienna headquarters on Wednesday to assess the current state of the oil market.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI crude climbs above $62 as OPEC+ signals no immediate change to current production policy.Oil prices rise on expectations that supply increases will remain limited in the near term.OPEC+ core eight meet Saturday to decide on a proposed 411,000/bpd production hike for July.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) convened at its Vienna headquarters on Wednesday to assess the current state of the oil market. While no immediate changes to production policy were announced, the meeting laid the groundwork for continued discussions on 2027 production baselines and the potential for future output adjustments in the months ahead. At the time of writing, WTI Crude oil is trading above $62, gaining more than 1.50% on the day as markets respond to the group’s cautious stance. A key backdrop to Wednesday’s meeting was the evolving trajectory of global oil demand, particularly within non-OECD economies. According to OPEC’s latest outlook, annual demand growth is expected to slow through 2029, with China’s contribution declining sharply after 2023. In contrast, “Other non-OECD” economies are projected to drive the majority of demand growth beyond 2025, even as total volumes begin to moderate.*Non-OECD refers to countries that are not members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). These are typically emerging and developing economies, in contrast to the OECD’s mostly advanced, high-income nations.*Source: OPECThis demand landscape directly informed OPEC+’s cautious approach to future output planning. It also underscored the urgency behind ongoing talks to revise 2027 production baselines as countries like the UAE and Iraq seek higher quotas aligned with their growing capacity to serve emerging markets. With demand patterns shifting and long-term growth slowing, the alliance is under increasing pressure to balance supply discipline with internal quota reform, making the outcome of these baseline negotiations pivotal to OPEC+’s long-term strategy.On Saturday, a separate meeting will be held via videoconference between the OPEC+ core eight key producers. Members include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman, and Kazakhstan.The primary objective of this gathering is to decide on a proposed 411,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) increase in oil production for July, following similar adjustments in May and June. This decision will be closely watched by markets since it underscores OPEC+’s ongoing efforts to align supply with evolving global demand conditions and maintain price stability. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

20:17 ECB's Knot: Inflation dynamics may cause considerable challenges
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of the Dutch central bank De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) noted on Wednesday that the current outlook on European inflation is murky, making it difficult for the ECB to engage in direct moves.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of the Dutch central bank De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) noted on Wednesday that the current outlook on European inflation is murky, making it difficult for the ECB to engage in direct moves.Key highlightsMedium-term inflation outlook is more ambiguous.

Near-term growth and inflation risks are to the downside.

Monetary-policy stance should be neutral.

Inflation dynamics may cause considerable challenges.

20:09 AUD/USD declines for the third straight day, with focus on Fed Minutes
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is facing a notable decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as markets process the latest inflation data from Australia and anticipate the Federal Reserve's (Fed) forthcoming decisions. At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades at 0.6421, down 0.33% in the day.

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At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades at 0.6421, down 0.33% in the day.With policy divergence becoming more pronounced, the AUD/USD pair is poised to record its third consecutive day of losses.AUD/USD remains tied to monetary policy, interest rates, and inflationIn the United States (US), focus shifts to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes from the May rate decision, which may offer greater clarity on the Fed’s policy outlook amid persistent inflation and the Trump administration’s trade policies.Looking ahead, any unexpected developments from the FOMC Minutes are likely to impact market expectations.If rate predictions stabilize and market participants anticipate a rate cut in September, attention will shift to the upcoming economic reports from the US. These will include the second preliminary reading of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter, as well as the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data and Michigan Sentiment index, both set to be released on Friday.Australian CPI data overshadowed by hawkish FedOn Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the April Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. The monthly CPI remained steady at 2.4% in the year to April, the same figure as in March and above the forecast of 2.3%. Those figures remain in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3%, and markets still price another rate cut at the next meeting in July. Following the reduction of Australia’s Cash Rate to 3.85% during the May 20 meeting, the Federal Funds Rate in the US remains in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, which has supported higher yields in the US. The Fed has maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing its commitment to being 'data-dependent,' which has limited any significant losses for the USD. Moreover, trade dynamics between the European Union (EU) and the United States appear to be improving, fostering optimism regarding a potential trade agreement between the two economic powers. Conversely, for Australia, which relies heavily on trade with China, indicators of economic weakness in China have direct ramifications for the AUD. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

20:04 United States 5-Year Note Auction climbed from previous 3.995% to 4.071%
United States 5-Year Note Auction climbed from previous 3.995% to 4.071%

19:34 Gold slips below $3,300 on US Dollar strength as traders await Fed Minutes
Gold price extended its losses during the North American session on Wednesday after hitting a daily high of $3,325 earlier in the day as market sentiment shifted sour. Nevertheless, sellers stepped in, driving the yellow metal prices below $3,300, resulting in a solid 0.18% decline.

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Nevertheless, sellers stepped in, driving the yellow metal prices below $3,300, resulting in a solid 0.18% decline.Price action has remained calm as traders await the release of the Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting at 18:00 GMT. Although it could move the markets, Fed officials have expressed that they are in wait-and-see mode, trying to assess the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States (US).Bullion’s rally appears to have stalled during the week as US Treasury bond yields recovered some of the previous week’s fall, underpinning the US Dollar. However, a surprise dovish tilt in the Minutes, the less likely scenario, could drive XAU/USD prices higher.On Tuesday, Fox Business News Gasparino, in a post on X, revealed that a framework between the US and India is close to being announced. It should be noted that the US has taken a more flexible approach to trade talks.Despite this, the Gold upside remains due to increasing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Middle East conflict involving Israel and Hamas.Goldman Sachs analysts recommended a higher-than-usual allocation to Gold in long-term portfolios, revealed Reuters. They cite elevated risks to US institutional credibility, pressure on the Fed, and sustained central bank demand.Ahead in the week, the docket will feature the Fed’s Minutes, the second estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q1 2025, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.Gold daily market movers: Bullion retreats on strong US Dollar and high US yieldsUS Treasury bond yields are rising as the 10-year Treasury note yield increases by four and a half basis points (bps) to 4.493%. Meanwhile, US real yields also advance four bps at 2.171%.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, rises over 0.33% to 99.89, fueled by an improvement in Consumer Confidence data, which grew the most in four years, revealed the Conference Board .New York Fed President John Williams said that inflation expectations are well-anchored and added that he wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent, as that could become permanent.Data revealed that Gold imports to Switzerland from the US rose to its highest level since at least 2012 in April.Besides this, Reuters revealed that “China's net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April from March, and were the highest since March 2024, data showed.”Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 44.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price pullback to challenge $3,250Gold prices have consolidated within the $3,280-$3,330 range over the last four trading sessions, as bullish momentum appears to be fading due to technical reasons. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is aiming toward its 50-neutral line, which if broken, could sponsor a leg-lower in XAU/USD prices.For a continuation of the uptrend, bulls must clear $3,300, $3,400 and the May 7 swing high of $3,438. If achieved, Gold’s next goal would be $3,500.On the downside, Gold tumbling below $3,250 could expose a move to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,211, followed by the May 20 daily low of $3,204. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

19:00 Russia Industrial Output came in at 1.5%, above forecasts (1.1%) in April
Russia Industrial Output came in at 1.5%, above forecasts (1.1%) in April

19:00 Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 2.7% (April) vs previous 5.9%
Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 2.7% (April) vs previous 5.9%

19:00 Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to -1.4% in April from previous -1.5%
Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to -1.4% in April from previous -1.5%

18:51 EUR/GBP hovering near support as UK fiscal caution faces fresh test – Rabobank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has had a good run in recent weeks. Notwithstanding cable’s uptrend this year, EUR/GBP has dropped from the year’s high close to 0.8738 on April 11 to below 0.84, where it is currently finding good support from the 200-day sma close to 0.8383.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has had a good run in recent weeks. Notwithstanding cable’s uptrend this year, EUR/GBP has dropped from the year’s high close to 0.8738 on April 11 to below 0.84, where it is currently finding good support from the 200-day sma close to 0.8383. The enthusiasm for the EUR in March can be explained by the market’s strong reaction to Germany’s decision to loosen its debt brake. This was widely seen as a ‘game-changer’ for German growth medium-term given the defence spending and infrastructure projects which are expected to be unleashed, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. Pound strength tested ahead of UK spending review, EUR support remains"By contrast, March brought the Spring Statement for the UK which brought a halving in the OBR’s UK growth forecast for 2025 and a stark reminder of the tight rope that UK Chancellor Reeves was walking to avoid breeching her own fiscal rules. More recently, the UK has seen a flurry of better news, which has helped lift the pound. That said, on June 11 the Chancellor will deliver her Spending Review which could again highlight the UK’s difficult fiscal position." "While concerns on this front may give GBP bulls pause for thought, the UK is clearly not the only country with a ‘too high’ debt burden. Indeed, the fact that the UK government at least recognises the constraints of living outside its means should provide GBP investors with some reassurance. We expect EUR/GBP to hold close to 0.84 in the coming weeks. That said, in the absence of better data on UK growth going forward, we see risk of EUR/GBP edging up to 0.87 on a 12-month view.""If the UK can continue its recent run of better-than-expected news, the 200 day sma would be in danger. A break below could put the April low close to EUR/GBP0.8323 in view. That said, the Spending Review will likely be uncomfortable for both the government and investors alike. Also, while the EUR may be due a bout of profit-taking after this year’s move higher, Germany’s relatively better debt position and expectations for better growth in 2026 and should provide longer term support for the EUR."

18:37 CTAs poised to pressure WTI as OPEC+ shifts strategy – TDS
CTAs will sell WTI crude in any scenario for prices this week. This selling activity is likely to be less significant than that which we expect in gold markets, but could weigh on prices nonetheless, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

CTAs will sell WTI crude in any scenario for prices this week. This selling activity is likely to be less significant than that which we expect in gold markets, but could weigh on prices nonetheless, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. WTI faces selling headwinds despite tight supply outlook"Ultimately, crude markets will struggle to absorb additional barrels from OPEC+ over the coming months, which we argue reflects a strategic pivot in policy driven by an attempt to a) test US shale production; b) improve compliance; and most importantly c) regain the supply-side leverage required to combat lower oil prices in the event of a slowdown in demand." "Energy demand remains resilient, US shale production is peaking, Venezuelan export licenses have expired, and geopolitical risks surrounding Iran remain elevated— all of which will likely act as a shock absorber to lower prices." "Still, OPEC+ was ultimately forced into this strategic pivot, and remains emboldened to bring these barrels back during seasonally favorable months; markets will struggle to absorb these barrels particularly following the summer months. The path to sustainably higher prices remains extremely narrow."

18:21 USD/CAD edges higher ahead of FOMC Minutes, with the interest rate outlook in focus
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading modestly lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with investors awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT.

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As such, the minutes from the May meeting could shape expectations for the near-term path of monetary policy.At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading near 1.3823 with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing resistance at 1.3874.Interest rate divergence fuels USD/CAD momentum ahead of Fed MinutesOn Tuesday, the US Dollar found renewed support after Consumer Confidence data showed a sharp jump to 98 in May, up from 85.7 in April. Easing tensions between the European Union (EU) and the US has also lent support to the Greenback and, together with hawkish comments from Fed officials, has reinforced the case for USD/CAD bulls.Interest rate divergence remains a primary driver of the pair’s strength. Recent Canadian data suggest that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may consider cutting rates in June. While headline inflation fell to 1.7% in April, core inflation—excluding volatile components like food and energy—rose to 3.15%, remaining above the BoC’s target.Markets are now pricing in a potential 25-basis-point rate cut from the Bank of Canada, which would bring the benchmark rate down from 2.75% to 2.50%. In contrast, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold in June, with market pricing showing a 97.8% probability of maintaining the current 4.25%–4.50% range. The next rate cut is expected at the September meeting.Any hawkish or dovish tone in Fed Minutes could shift sentiment further, especially ahead of Friday’s release of the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

18:19 CTA buying set to ignite next Gold rally – TDS
CTAs will buy Gold in any scenario for prices over the coming week, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

CTAs will buy Gold in any scenario for prices over the coming week, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Gold positioned for breakout as algos and funds return"We expect this buying activity to kick off tomorrow, to accelerate heading into next week's NFP report, and to tally up to a massive +30% of algos' max size. This will mark the first notable buying impulse in Gold futures since the large scale liquidations associated with macro fund divestment observed in the weeks surrounding Liberation day. For weeks, we have argued that the surprise in Gold will be that prices struggle to trade lower; despite the worst-case scenario on trade." "Now, we already see nascent signs of selling exhaustion from ETF holders, with Chinese ETF outflows grinding to a halt over the last session while Shanghai Gold prices have already broken out of the downtrend previously set from all-time highs. At the same time, a shift in strategic asset allocations has contributed a significant portion of recent global ETF inflows, suggesting that persistent central bank buying activity should be sufficient to offset such outflows from retail holders." "Selling exhaustion is now in the rearview. While markets await a catalyst for the next demand impulse, we now imminently expect CTA buying activity and macro fund underpositioning to catalyze the next leg higher in Gold prices."

17:24 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Trades flat near 0.5950
The NZD/USD pair gives up a majority of its initial gains and flattens around 0.5950 during North American trading hours on Wednesday.

17:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in line with forecasts (-9) in May
United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in line with forecasts (-9) in May

16:26 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers above $3,300 with pressure building within a bull flag
Gold prices are threatening key technical layers of support on Wednesday, with Bullion searching for a fresh catalyst to drive prices out of the confines of the bull flag pattern.

16:22 EUR/JPY flattens around 163.40, investors seek fresh cues on US-EU trade talks
The EUR/JPY pair trades flat around 163.40 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The cross consolidates as the Euro (EU) wobbles, with investors looking for fresh cues about the current status of trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY trades sideways around 163.40 as investors seek further development in US-EU trade discussions.Soft France CPI data for May paves the way for an interest rate cut by the ECB in June.The Japanese Yen capitalizes on a sharp increase in government bond yields.The EUR/JPY pair trades flat around 163.40 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The cross consolidates as the Euro (EU) wobbles, with investors looking for fresh cues about the current status of trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump signaled quick attempts from the EU to conduct trade talks with Washington. I have just been informed that the EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will," Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social.This comes as a positive trigger for global trade tensions as giant economies have agreed to reach a trade deal. Another reason behind the Euro's sideways performance is anxiety among investors ahead of the inflation data from key nations of the Eurozone, such as Germany, Spain, and Italy on Friday.Meanwhile, preliminary France Consumer Price Index (CPI) (EU norm) data for May has shown that inflationary pressures have cooled down. Year-on-year CPI rose at a slower pace of 0.6%, compared to a 0.9% growth seen in April. Soft inflation data has encouraged European Central Bank (ECB) officials to support reducing interest rates again in the June policy meeting.ECB policymaker and French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau mentioned in a speech on Tuesday that the 0.6% inflation rate in France is a “very encouraging sign of disinflation in action”. Villeroy guided a dovish stance on the interest rate outlook stating that the “policy normalization in the Euro area is probably not complete”.On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains following a significant jump in bond yields. 10-year JGB yields surge by 3% to near 1.52% after Japan’s Ministry of Finance signaled that it will consider tweaking the composition of its bond program, which could involve cuts to its super-long bond issuance, Reuters reported. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

16:15 Fed Minutes set to reveal details of hawkish stance amid Trump’s tariffs
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the Minutes of its May 6-7 meeting on Wednesday. Back then, policymakers decided to keep the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely anticipated by market participants.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Minutes of the Fed’s May 6-7 gathering are due on Wednesday.The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate on hold, as expected.The US Dollar is at risk of piercing its 2025 low amid tariff-related concerns.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the Minutes of its May 6-7 meeting on Wednesday. Back then, policymakers decided to keep the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely anticipated by market participants.The Federal Reserve (Fed) adopted a more hawkish stance at the beginning of the year, amid concerns about United States (US) President Donald Trump's tariffs' potential impact on economic progress and inflation. Not only did officials decide to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold, but they also gave no hints on future rate cuts, maintaining the wait-and-see stance adopted in March.The Fed is concerned about risks lying ahead Fed officials noted, “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” according to the statement released alongside the decision.Later in the press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell stated, "We are comfortable with our policy stance." "We think that right now, the appropriate thing to do is to wait and see how things evolve. There's so much uncertainty," he added. Additionally, the Fed slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings. The central bank has been allowing up to $25 billion in Treasuries to mature every month, and reduced the roll-off to just $5 billion starting in April. Shrinking the balance sheet is another tool the Fed uses to control inflationary pressures. President Trump’s massive tariffs have been the main reason behind the latest Fed’s hawkish stance. Despite his usual caution, Chairman Powell finally acknowledged that tariffs are “a good part” of their increased expectations for higher inflation. He added it would be “very difficult” to assess how much of the inflation is coming from tariffs."Looking ahead, the new Administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy," Powell said.When will FOMC Minutes be released and how could it affect the US Dollar?The FOMC is set to release the Minutes from its May 6-7 policy meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, and market players hope the document will shed some light on the future of monetary policy.Ahead of the release, the CME FedWatch Tool shows speculative interest does not expect interest rate cuts in June or July, with the odds for a 25 basis-point (bps) cut standing at around 48% in September.The US Dollar is under selling pressure ahead of the event, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) comfortably below the 100.00 mark. The Fed is not expected to adopt a dovish stance, meaning that most of what they could reveal is aligned with what the market already knows. The FOMC Minutes should then have a limited impact on the DXY. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, says: “The DXY trades not far above the multi-month bottom posted in April at 97.91, and the risk skews to the downside, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The index develops below all its moving averages, with a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing resistance at around 100.20. Gains beyond the latter expose the 101.00 area, ahead of the May peak at 101.98. Still, such an advance seems out of the picture, given limited buying interest. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame advanced, but remain well below their midlines, falling short of supporting a steady advance.”Bednarik adds: “On the other hand, relevant support comes at 98.70, May monthly low. A bearish breakout exposes the mentioned April low, followed by the 97.50 region.” Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more. Next release: Wed May 28, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve Why it matters to traders? Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

16:14 INR gains modestly as USD/INR dips from 85.70, market eyes on US data
The Indian Rupee (INR) is showing a modest strength against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session on Wednesday, recovering from early losses seen in Asian trading hours after USD/INR touched an intraday peak near 85.70.

15:57 United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 6.1% in May 23 from previous 5.4%
United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 6.1% in May 23 from previous 5.4%

14:41 USD/CHF steadies above 0.8250 as SNB Chairman flags concern over strong Swiss Franc and low inflation
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is moving sideways against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/CHF pair hovering near the previous day’s high after a solid almost 1% climb driven by renewed US Dollar strength.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF hovers near 0.8280 after Tuesday’s nearly 1% rally, supported by a firm US Dollar.The US Dollar Index DXY remains firm near 99.60 ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes later on Wednesday.SNB Chairman says negative inflation is possible, but the central bank’s focus is on medium-term price stability.The Swiss Franc (CHF) is moving sideways against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/CHF pair hovering near the previous day’s high after a solid almost 1% climb driven by renewed US Dollar strength. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF pair is trading slightly lower from intraday highs but maintains a foothold above the key 0.8250 psychological mark, last seen around 0.8275 during the European session.Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, remains steady. Upbeat US Consumer Confidence data released on Tuesday added to the Dollar’s strength, helping the DXY to hold firm near 99.50 ahead of the FOMC minutes due later in the day.However, demand for traditional safe-haven assets, such as the Swiss Franc, remains underpinned by lingering US fiscal concerns, ongoing global trade uncertainties, and the unresolved geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine.Adding to the cautious mood, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel cited subdued inflation, a strong Swiss Franc, and increasing market volatility as growing risks to price stability while speaking at an event in Basel. This reinforces the central bank’s readiness to take further action on it.Schlegel noted that “even negative inflation figures cannot be ruled out in the coming months,” but added that this would not necessarily prompt a policy response. “The SNB does not necessarily have to react to this. Our focus is not on the current rate of inflation, but rather on price stability over the medium term,” he said.Swiss inflation eased to 0.0% in April, touching the lower bound of the SNB’s official 0–2% target range and reinforcing expectations of further monetary easing. Markets widely anticipate the central bank will deliver another interest rate cut at its June 19 policy meeting, which would bring the benchmark rate down to zero.According to Reuters, market pricing currently reflects a 75% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) cut to 0.00%. There is also a 25% chance that the SNB could move more aggressively with a 50 bps cut, pushing rates back into negative territory at -0.25%. Swiss economy FAQs Where does Switzerland stand in terms of economic power? Switzerland is the ninth-largest economy measured by nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the European continent. Measured by GDP per capita – a broad measure of average living standards –, the country ranks among the highest in the world, meaning that it is one the richest countries globally. Switzerland tends to be in the top spots in global rankings about living standards, development indexes, competitiveness or innovation. Where does Swiss economic growth come from? Switzerland is an open, free-market economy mainly based on the services sector. The Swiss economy has a strong export sector, and the neighboring European Union (EU) is its main trading partner. Switzerland is a leading exporter of watches and clocks, and hosts leading firms in the food, chemicals and pharmaceutical industries. The country is considered to be an international tax haven, with significantly low corporate and income tax rates compared with its European neighbors. How does the Swiss economy impact the Swiss Franc’s valuation? As a high-income country, the growth rate of the Swiss economy has diminished over the last decades. Still, its political and economic stability, its high education levels, top-tier firms in several industries and its tax-haven status have made it a preferred destination for foreign investment. This has generally benefited the Swiss Franc (CHF), which has historically kept relatively strong against its main currency peers. Generally, a good performance of the Swiss economy – based on high growth, low unemployment and stable prices – tends to appreciate CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. Do commodity prices impact the Swiss Franc’s valuation? Switzerland isn’t a commodity exporter, so in general commodity prices aren’t a key driver of the Swiss Franc (CHF). However, there is a slight correlation with both Gold and Oil prices. With Gold, CHF’s status as a safe-haven and the fact that the currency used to be backed by the precious metal means that both assets tend to move in the same direction. With Oil, a paper released by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suggests that the rise in Oil prices could negatively influence CHF valuation, as Switzerland is a net importer of fuel.

14:33 JPY up modestly & outperforming G10 – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is up a modest 0.2%, outperforming most of the G10 currencies in quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is up a modest 0.2%, outperforming most of the G10 currencies in quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Higher yields offer support to the JPY via spreads"Bond market developments continue to dominate the narrative and Japan’s latest weak bond auction is lifting domestic Japanese Government Bond yields and narrowing spreads in a JPY-supportive manner." "Domestic releases have been limited however the calendar is heavy into the end of the week with employment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, and retail sales data. A speech from BoJ Gov. Ueda has been added to the calendar for next week, and will be closely scrutinized for any possible shift in tone heading into the June 17 policy decision." "The BoJ has remained decidedly hawkish year-to-date and its tightening stance has been met with bond market turbulence in recent weeks."

14:33 EUR/GBP remains depressed below 0.8400 following dull Eurozone data
The Euro is trading practically flat below the 0.8400 round level, unable to put a significant distance from the 0.8380 multi-week lows, as Eurozone data strengthens the case for further ECB easing in June.Unemployment data from Germany released earlier today revealed that the jobless rate remained

14:33 Mexican Peso stalls close to YTD highs with FOMC Minutes and policy divergence back in focus
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is holding broadly steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, remaining close to year-to-date highs, as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) May Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

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According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing in a 49.1% chance of a rate cut in September. For June and July meetings, the expectation is that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate at the current 4.25%-4.50%.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, a FOMC voter, said on Wednesday that the Fed should respond “relatively stronger” when inflation begins to deviate from the target. “[I] want to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent,” he said.The FXStreet speech tracker, which gauges the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated William’s words as hawkish with a score of 7.2. This is a significant deviation from the 5.8 average, signaling a shift toward a more hawkish tone. If this narrative is reflected in the minutes, any changes to interest rate expectations could directly impact the US Dollar and, therefore, the USD/MXN exchange rate.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN hinges on the GreenbackMexico’s central Bank, Banxico, is set to release the minutes from its latest policy meeting on Thursday, following its seventh consecutive rate cut on May 15. Markets will closely examine the commentary for signs of a potential pause in the easing cycle, particularly as policymakers weigh external risks such as US tariff threats. Thursday also brings a wave of high-impact data from the United States, including the second reading of the Q1 Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which directly form part of the Fed’s string of indicators it considers when deciding on rates. The core PCE figures for April – the Fed's preferred inflation measure –and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures are both scheduled for release on Friday. With the Fed reiterating its 'data-dependent' stance, these data points are crucial for understanding inflation and consumer sentiment, as they gauge the feelings of US citizens about the current economic situation. On Tuesday, the US Dollar received some support after the publication of Consumer Confidence data from The Conference Board, which showed that households’ moods improved significantly after declining for five consecutive months. The rebound was partly attributed to the US-China trade deal.Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN struggles below trendline as bears defend resistance ahead of Fed MinutesUSD/MXN continues to trade within a downward trend, with prices capped beneath the 20-day SMA at 19.44.After hitting a new year-to-date (YTD) low of 19.18 on Monday, a modest rebound in the US Dollar has pushed the pair to trendline resistance from the April decline at 19.29.Momentum indicators remain weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flattening at around 39, indicating that while bearish momentum is present, the market is not yet in oversold territory. With the downtrend currently intact, a break below 19.20 could draw attention to the October 2024 low at 19.11, which serves as the next significant support level. A sustained break below this level could open the door to deeper declines toward 19.00, while any rebound would first need to reclaim 19.44 20-day SMA to shift short-term sentiment.USD/MXN daily chart
Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

14:32 India M3 Money Supply remains unchanged at 9.5% in May 12
India M3 Money Supply remains unchanged at 9.5% in May 12

14:31 EUR up marginally as ECB inflation expectations climb – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with a marginal 0.1% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in generally quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with a marginal 0.1% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in generally quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Complicating current bias to cuts"The currency remains range bound and releases have been limited to the ECB’s inflation expectations data. The 1Y inflation expectations measure climbed for a second month, to 3.1%, reaching its highest level since February 2024." " This presents a complicating development for the ECB as policymakers seek to determine the outlook for rates, in the context of their current dovishness and bias to further near-term cuts." "Chief Economist Lane has spoken to the ECB’s key rate not being cut below 1.5%, roughly 100bpts below its current level. Markets are currently pricing nearly one full 25bpt cut for the June meeting and 67bpts of easing by December.""The trend from February is bullish, despite the flat range that looks to have developed between the April high (1.1573) and the local May 12 low (1.1065). Momentum indicators remain bullish and we look to near-term support around 1.1280 and resistance above 1.1400."

14:27 GBP flat vs. USD, trading just below Monday’s multi-year high – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Wednesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD), trading flat around 1.3500 just below Monday’s multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Wednesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD), trading flat around 1.3500 just below Monday’s multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Key BoE speakers give speeches on Wed & Thur"Domestic developments have been limited and there are no major economic releases scheduled in the calendar. BoE Chief Economist Pill will be speaking at 11am ET, ahead of Gov. Bailey on Thursday. Pill has maintained a bias to ‘cautious and gradual’ cuts while comments from the Governor have been limited. Markets are pricing a hold for the next meeting on June 19 and 35bpts of cuts by December.""The trend from January is bullish and GBP/USD is currently trading just below its multi-year high reached on Monday. Momentum is bullish and the RSI’s current reading of 62 is still well shy of overbought levels closer to 70. We look to near-term support in the mid-1.34s and resistance in the upper 1.35s."

14:22 CAD underperforms but sits close to estimated fair value – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is the main underperformer against the softer USD in overnight trade and is holding a very minor (less than 0.1%) loss on the session so far.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is the main underperformer against the softer USD in overnight trade and is holding a very minor (less than 0.1%) loss on the session so far. The state opening of parliament saw King Charles outline the new government’s plan to drive 'the largest transformation' of the economy since the end of WWII, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Intraday trend momentum looks a little more neutral "There was heavy emphasis on building new trade relationships. Spot peaked near 1.3840 in overnight trade, which is more or less where we estimate fair value to be currently (1.3842). Factors (swap spreads, for example) driving the CAD have weakened a little over the past few sessions but scope for CAD losses remains limited in the near-term at least, we believe.""Solid gains in the USD yesterday give the short-term charts a potentially bullish tinge but bearish price action in the USD overall last week (which delivered a bearish 'engulfing' line on the weekly chart), and solidly bearish daily and weekly trend momentum signals suggest limited upside potential for the USD in the near-term at least." "Intraday trend momentum looks a little more neutral and the USD has held gains back above 1.3745/50—former support—which may allow for a deeper correction in the USD’s drop last week towards the mid/upper 1.38s before renewed selling pressure emerges."

14:19 USD edges lower on softer bonds, stocks – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading lower overall on the day, after easing back from its overnight peaks against the major currencies as global stocks and bonds slip, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading lower overall on the day, after easing back from its overnight peaks against the major currencies as global stocks and bonds slip, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Bearish sentiment moderates but trend lower is intact"A weak 40Y JGB auction appears to have weighed on bond market sentiment and stock markets are awaiting Nvidia results amid concerns about chip sector volatility. Month-end may still be a factor in short-term FX price moves. Earlier in the week, it had seemed as if some of the USD-negative headwinds were moderating; Treasurys had steadied and markets were perhaps coming round to the idea that President Trump’s tariff bark might be worse than its ultimate bite. But underlying fiscal worries remain as the president’s tax bill works its way through Congress." "Risk reversal pricing suggests some moderation in deeply bearish USD sentiment seen earlier this month but (BBDXY) riskies still reflect a solid skew in favour of dollar puts. Technical signals are supportive of some short-term stabilization in the USD but the broader bear trend in the USD (DXY) remains deeply entrenched across the short-, medium-, and long-term studies, suggesting that upside potential for the dollar generally remains quite limited. Overnight gains peaked around 99.87, effectively the lower end of the resistance zone (99.85/100.15) we highlighted yesterday. The RBNZ is the top performer on the session after the RBNZ cut rates to 3.25%, as expected." "But policymakers were split on the decision (1 dissenting vote) and the central bank signaled that policy was near neutral. Further rate cuts are likely but may be slower to emerge. Today sees the release of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May (forecast down but less negative than April’s –13), the auction of USD70bn in 5Y notes and the 7th May FOMC meeting minutes (likely reaffirming the cautious outlook for policy while tariff uncertainty persists). There are comments from BoE economist Pill and the Banxico releases its inflation report at 14.30ET. Australia releases private capex data tonight."

14:13 USD/CNH: Likely to trade between 7.1750 and 7.1950 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade between 7.1750 and 7.1950 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, downward momentum is slowing; a breach of 7.2070 would mean that the downward bias has faded, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade between 7.1750 and 7.1950 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, downward momentum is slowing; a breach of 7.2070 would mean that the downward bias has faded, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Downward momentum is slowing24-HOUR VIEW: "After USD dropped to 7.1626 two days ago and then rebounded, we indicated yesterday that 'downward pressure appears to have eased, and USD is likely to trade sideways today, probably between 7.1640 and 7.1840.' We did not expect USD to rebound to 7.1935. The rebound lacks momentum, and instead of extending further, USD is likely to trade between 7.1750 and 7.1950."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On Monday (26 May, spot at 7.1770), we indicated that 'while downward momentum has not increased significantly, as long as 7.2070 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached, the bias for USD is on the downside toward 7.1500.' USD subsequently dropped to 7.1626 and then rebounded. Yesterday, it rebounded further to 7.1935. While downward momentum is beginning to slow, only a breach of 7.2070 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the downward bias has faded."

14:10 USD/JPY: Any advance is likely limited to a test of 144.80 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could strengthen further vs Japanese Yen (JPY); deeply overbought conditions suggest that any advance is likely limited to a test of 144.80. In the longer run, week-long USD weakness has stabilised; USD is likely to trade in a 142.70/145.30 range.

US Dollar (USD) could strengthen further vs Japanese Yen (JPY); deeply overbought conditions suggest that any advance is likely limited to a test of 144.80. In the longer run, week-long USD weakness has stabilised; USD is likely to trade in a 142.70/145.30 range.Week-long USD weakness has stabilised24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are the excerpts from our update yesterday: 'USD could edge lower and retest the 142.20 level. A breach of this level is not ruled out, but any further decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 141.70. On the upside, resistance levels are at 143.10 and 143.45.' While USD subsequently dipped to 142.10, it surged sharply in a surprise move, reaching a high of 144.45. While strong momentum could lead to further USD strength, deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance is likely limited to a test of 144.80. The major resistance at 145.30 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 143.50; a breach of 143.20 would mean that the current upward pressure has eased."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a negative since late last week, we indicated two days ago (26 May, spot at 142.70) that 'the risk is still on the downside, but it remains to be seen if USD can maintain its pace of decline.' We also highlighted that 'the level to monitor is 141.70' and 'a breach of 144.00 (‘strong resistance’ level) would suggest the weakness has stabilised.' Yesterday, USD dropped to 142.10 and then lifted off, soaring above our ‘strong resistance’ at 144.00. The price action indicates that the week-long USD weakness has stabilised. Although there is room for USD to rise further, any advance is likely part of 142.70/145.30 range."

14:09 USD/JPY Price Forecast: 20-EMA acts as key barrier
The USD/JPY pair gives back its initial gains and falls to near 144.20 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The asset faces pressure as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend Tuesday’s strong recovery move.

14:03 NZD/USD: To trade sideways between 0.5920 and 0.5980 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could trade sideways between 0.5920 and 0.5980 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, momentum is slowing rapidly; the chance of NZD breaking decisively above 0.6030 is slim, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could trade sideways between 0.5920 and 0.5980 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, momentum is slowing rapidly; the chance of NZD breaking decisively above 0.6030 is slim, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Momentum is slowing rapidly24-HOUR VIEW: "On Monday, NZD rose to 0.6031 before easing. Yesterday, Tuesday, when NZD was at 0.5995, we indicated that 'conditions remain overbought, and instead of rising, NZD is more likely to trade in a range between 0.5960 and 0.6020.' Rather than trading in a range, NZD fell, reaching a low of 0.5941 and then traded sideways. Today, NZD could continue to trade sideways, but the softer underlying tone suggests a lower range of 0.5920 and 0.5980."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from two days ago, 26 May, when NZD was at 0.5990, we noted that, 'While there has been an increase in momentum, it is not enough to indicate a sustained rise just yet.' We added, 'For a sustained advance, NZD must break and hold above the significant resistance at 0.6030.' NZD then rose to 0.6031 and then pulled back. Yesterday, NZD dropped to a low of 0.5941. Even though our ‘strong support’ level at 0.5920 is not breached yet, upward momentum is slowing rapidly, and the chance of NZD breaking decisively above 0.6030 is slim. A breach of 0.5920 would indicate NZD could continue to range trade."

14:02 India Manufacturing Output above expectations (3%) in April: Actual (3.4%)
India Manufacturing Output above expectations (3%) in April: Actual (3.4%)

14:00 India Industrial Output came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2%) in April
India Industrial Output came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2%) in April

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -1.2% in May 23 from previous -5.1%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -1.2% in May 23 from previous -5.1%

13:58 Higher inflation in Australia, everything as expected in New Zealand – Commerzbank
The Australian inflation indicator for April, published this morning, came in at 2.4%, which is slightly higher than expected, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

The Australian inflation indicator for April, published this morning, came in at 2.4%, which is slightly higher than expected, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.Aussie inflation ticks higher; Kiwi holds steady after expected cut"However, it should be noted that it remains within the Australian central bank's target range of 2–3% and only reflects part of the actual price change. Before the central bank makes its next decision in early July, we will see the growth figures for the first quarter, another labour market report, and the inflation figures for May. Accordingly, it is hardly surprising that the Australian dollar has barely reacted to today's figures.""Meanwhile, as expected, the New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) cut interest rates by another 25 basis points this morning. The RBNZ pointed out that inflation is within the target range and that the real economy is slowly recovering, despite global uncertainties weighing on it. The key interest rate forecast was lowered slightly, suggesting that another rate cut is likely in the coming months." "However, the RBNZ is now close to its terminal rate. Today, one of the decision-makers voted in favour of keeping interest rates unchanged, which is likely one of the reasons for the positive reaction of the Kiwi. Additionally, the central bank's chief economist emphasised that the key interest rate has now reached its neutral range. We therefore expect the RBNZ to end its cycle of interest rate cuts soon."

13:50 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.6430/0.6485 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) does not appear to have enough momentum to continue to decline vs US Dollar (USD); it is more likely to trade in a range of 0.6430/0.6485.

Australian Dollar (AUD) does not appear to have enough momentum to continue to decline vs US Dollar (USD); it is more likely to trade in a range of 0.6430/0.6485. In the longer run, the loss in upward momentum indicates the likelihood of AUD reaching 0.6550 is low, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Likelihood of AUD reaching 0.6550 is low24-HOUR VIEW: "In the early Asian session yesterday, when AUD was at 0.6480, we expected it to 'consolidate in a range between 0.6455 and 0.6510.' However, AUD edged to a low of 0.6435. While the weakness has not quite stabilised, AUD does not appear to have enough momentum to continue to decline. Today, AUD is more likely to trade in a range of 0.6430/0.6485."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On Monday (26 May, spot at 0.6495), we indicated that 'there has been a rapid buildup in momentum.' We expect AUD to 'trade with an upward bias toward 0.6550.' AUD then rose to 0.6537 and pulled back. Yesterday, AUD pulled back further to 0.6435. The loss in momentum indicates the likelihood of AUD reaching 0.6550 is low. From here, if AUD were to break clearly below 0.6430 (no change in ‘strong support’ level), it would mean that it could range trade for a period."

13:45 Gold recovers while investors remain confident over swift progress in EU-US trade talks
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts bids and rises to near $3,320 during European trading hours on Wednesday, following an over 1% sell-off the previous day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price recovers to near $3,320 despite increasing hopes for a US-EU trade deal.Russia’s Putin demands that NATO restrict its eastern expansion in writing.Investors await FOMC minutes and the US PCE inflation data for April.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts bids and rises to near $3,320 during European trading hours on Wednesday, following an over 1% sell-off the previous day. The yellow metal rises despite investors becoming increasingly confident that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) will secure a trade deal soon. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in a post on Truth.Social that the EU is making swift efforts to come to the table for trade negotiations with Washington. "I was extremely satisfied with the 50% Tariff allotment on the European Union, especially since they were “slow walking". I have just been informed that the EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will," Trump wrote.This comes as an improvement in the global economic outlook as both economies trade a significant portion of the global business. Theoretically, signs of easing global economic uncertainty diminish demand for safe-haven assets, such as Gold.The optimism over the trade deal between the EU and the US has also supported the US Dollar (USD). During European trading hours, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surrenders its early gains and falls back to near 99.50 from the intraday high of 99.85. Though it has recovered significantly from the monthly low of 98.70 posted on Monday. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Gold price an expensive bet for investors.Daily digest market movers: Gold price awaits FOMC minutesThe next major trigger for the Gold price will be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the May policy meeting, due at 18:00 GMT. The FOMC minutes are expected to provide a detailed explanation behind the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to hold interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.After the interest rate announcement, the Fed guided to hold interest rates steady for a long enough period until officials gain clarity on the economic performance due to the imposition of new economic policies under the US President Donald Trump’s leadership. The Fed also warned that the risks of higher unemployment and inflation have risen.This week, investors will also focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be released on Friday. However, the impact of the inflation data is expected to be limited as Fed officials have warned that tariffs imposed by the White House could de-anchor consumer inflation expectations.On Tuesday, Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari supported holding interest rates for longer amid elevated uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy. “Until there is more clarity on the path for tariffs and their impact on prices and economic activity, it is better to keep a patient stance on the monetary policy, which is likely only modestly restrictive now,” Kashkari said.On the geopolitical front, hopes of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have diminished, potentially supporting the Gold price. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has demanded assurance from Western leaders to restrict the NATO enlargement on the east side in writing and the removal of sanctions on his nation to end the war in Ukraine.Technical Analysis: Gold price holds 20-day EMAGold price struggles around an upward-sloping trendline on a daily timeframe around $3,335, which is plotted from the December 12 high of $2,726. However, the near-term trend of the precious metal is bullish as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $3,288.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.Looking up, the May 7 high around $3,440 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the May 15 low at $3,120 will be the key support zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

13:43 Euro’s role as reserve currency: a missed opportunity? – Commerzbank
The dominance of the US Dollar (USD) is based on its use in cross-border transactions by third countries - i.e. its use as a so-called vehicle currency.

The dominance of the US Dollar (USD) is based on its use in cross-border transactions by third countries - i.e. its use as a so-called vehicle currency. According to data from the payment service provider SWIFT, the share of the USD in international payment transactions recently totalled around 60%, whereas the number 2, the euro, appears to be far behind at 13%, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen reports. Euro still struggles to rival the USD"The single currency came very close to challenging the Greenback for first place. At the end of 2017, the corresponding EUR share in the SWIFT data was just 2 percentage points below that of the USD. Since then, the US currency has of course extended its lead again, recently even considerably. However, the ECB points out that the significant decline in the EUR share since spring 2023 could be due to technical factors - in this respect, the SWIFT data should perhaps now be viewed with caution.""But back to the fact that the euro could well become a competitor to the US dollar in international payment transactions. In 1973, the economist Sven Grassman publicised his observation that trade in industrial goods was generally settled in the exporter's currency. He explained the dominance of the dollar in world trade at the time with the US's high share of world exports (Grassman's Law). This explanation could also be applied to the eurozone, which is now responsible for a high proportion of global exports. This basically gives companies in the eurozone a good negotiating position to push through the euro as the invoicing currency.""The timing of the temporary significant increase in the share of EUR in international payment transactions was significant. This occurred in the year in which Emmanuel Macron was elected President of France. In his election campaign at the time, Macron campaigned in favour of greater integration of the eurozone. From the perspective of many investors, this obviously reduced the risks associated with the euro. However, disillusionment quickly set in again after his election. A currency that is exposed to the risk of a break-up of the currency area obviously finds it difficult to assert itself as a vehicle currency. And so it remains the case that replacing the US dollar is likely to prove difficult, even if it is not completely unrealistic."

13:39 AUD/USD trims some losses but remains capped below the 0.6450 resistance area
The Aussie Dollar is posting marginal gains on Wednesday following a 0.70% decline during the last two days.

13:16 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a lower range of 1.3480/1.3560 – UOB Group
The slight increase in downward momentum suggests GBP is likely to trade in a lower range of 1.3480/1.3560.

The slight increase in downward momentum suggests GBP is likely to trade in a lower range of 1.3480/1.3560. In the longer run, upward momentum is beginning to wane, but only a breach of 1.3460 would mean that 1.3635 is out of reach this time round, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Upward momentum is beginning to wane24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for GBP to 'consolidate 1.3540 and 1.3600” yesterday was incorrect, as it fell to 1.3501 before closing at 1.3507, down 0.42%. The decline only resulted in a slight increase in downward momentum, and rather than a sustained drop, GBP is more likely to trade in a lower range of 1.3480/1.3560 today."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a positive GBP view since the middle of last week. In our most recent narrative from two days ago (26 May, spot at 1.3530), we pointed out that 'upward momentum remains strong.' We added, The next objective is 1.3635.' Yesterday, GBP saw a surprisingly sharp pullback, dropping to a low of 1.3501. While upward momentum is beginning to wane, only a break below 1.3460 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would mean that 1.3635 is out of reach this time round."

13:13 US tariff policy: not all that bad? – Commerzbank
The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey is an indicator that is not normally paid too much attention to. However, on the one hand, the current times are probably anything but normal and, on the other, it turned out to be much stronger than expected.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey is an indicator that is not normally paid too much attention to. However, on the one hand, the current times are probably anything but normal and, on the other, it turned out to be much stronger than expected. In fact, it clearly exceeded the expectations of even the most optimistic analysts in a Bloomberg survey, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen reports. Dollar finds support in strong consumer confidence data"It was obviously not expected that the recent backpedalling on US tariffs, and in particular against China, would lift the mood among US consumers to such an extent. Could the whole tariff hiccup end up leaving the US economy virtually unscathed? That would indeed be positive for the US dollar and would justify yesterday's, albeit only moderate, reaction.""Unfortunately, I do not share the optimism of the US households surveyed which may be partly due to the fact that the tariffs introduced so far have not yet had a noticeable effect on US consumer prices. But this is undoubtedly still to come. What is more - and I may repeat myself here - is that the uncertainty regarding the final tariffs remains high. Even if the Trump administration has abandoned its absurdly high punitive tariffs against China, it cannot be assumed that trade relations will be restored to the old status quo.""I am not alone in my scepticism. A look at the FX options market shows: From the market's perspective, the USD crash risks have not noticeably reduced despite the apparent easing of tensions in the US trade conflict. My preferred measure for this, EUR/USD risk reversals, have only moved slightly away from their recent highs. I believe this is justified."

13:05 China-US trade talks: The art of the deal – Standard Chartered
Our baseline scenario is that US tariffs on China will likely stay around current levels after the 90-day truce. The tit-for-tat tariff war in April and subsequent truce indicate more caution on both sides.

Our baseline scenario is that US tariffs on China will likely stay around current levels after the 90-day truce. The tit-for-tat tariff war in April and subsequent truce indicate more caution on both sides. Even in case of aggressive tariff re-escalation, exemptions will likely be considered to mitigate business impact, Standard Chartered's economists note. What can we expect at the end of the 90-day truce?"The trade trajectory following the end of the US-China 90-day tariff truce remains uncertain. Our baseline assumption is that the truce will likely be extended further and that average tariff levels may remain around current rates (see Figure 1). This approach would allow the continued flow of bilateral trade between the two nations and buy more time for negotiations on more complex and contentious issues.""We believe the worst of tariff headlines is behind us, and our baseline assumes limited room for further tariff hikes from current levels in 2025. The tit-for-tat trade war in April and subsequent sharp reduction in bilateral tariffs in May indicate more caution on future tariff action from both the US and China. In addition, there are plenty of unresolved issues on the table, including existing bilateral tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and the exchange rate. Furthermore, the US may be prioritising negotiations with other trade partners, with the 90-day tariff pause on other countries ending one month earlier than with China. Taking all of these factors into consideration, 90 days are likely not enough for the two countries to conclude a comprehensive deal; we, therefore, expect the tariff truce to be extended to allow for continued negotiations.""With our baseline assumption on tariffs, we maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.8%. China’s existing stimulus package is likely to largely offset the tariff impact. However, if the US hikes tariffs much higher than our baseline assumption, imposes other significant non-tariff measures against China, or if China’s housing market and consumption recovery falls short of expectations, additional fiscal support will likely be rolled out to prevent GDP growth from undershooting the growth target significantly."

13:01 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY): 3% (April) vs -1.3%
Ireland Retail Sales (YoY): 3% (April) vs -1.3%

13:01 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous -0.9% to 1.1% in April
Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous -0.9% to 1.1% in April

12:35 USD/CAD extends gains above 1.3800 with all eyes on the FOMC minutes
The US Dollar is showing a moderate advance on Wednesday, extending gains after Tuesday’s rebound.

12:32 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.55% to 2.01% in May
Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.55% to 2.01% in May

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.83% to -0.16% in May
Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.83% to -0.16% in May

12:11 AUD/JPY falls below 93.00, downside seems limited as Japan considers debt issuance changes
AUD/JPY halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 92.90 during the European hours on Wednesday.

12:08 USD/JPY: Near term rebound; sell rallies preferred – OCBC
USD/JPY rebounded amid chatters of USD short covering, month-end flows. Pair was last at 144.03 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY rebounded amid chatters of USD short covering, month-end flows. Pair was last at 144.03 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Near term risks for the USD/JPY are to the upside"Mild bearish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI rose. Near term risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 145.40 (50 DMA), 146.10 levels. Support at 142.20 levels." "USD risks (FOMC minutes, Core PCE) this week may see further unwinding, leading to near term USD/JPY upside risks. We look for rally to fade into again. On Friday, we watch Tokyo CPI, IP, retail sales data. Hotter than expected data should curtail the recent rebound. While the timing of BoJ policy normalisation may be deferred, policy normalisation is not derailed." "Fed-BoJ policy divergence and USD diversification theme should still support USDJPY's broader direction of movement to the downside."

12:04 NZD: Hawkish RBNZ cut lifts Kiwi dollar prospects – ING
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25bp to 3.25% as widely expected this morning, although the overall message was more hawkish than expected, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25bp to 3.25% as widely expected this morning, although the overall message was more hawkish than expected, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. NZD/USD to move back above 0.600 in the coming weeks"First, the vote split, 5-1 in favour of a cut, while baseline market expectations were likely a unanimous decision. Second, rate projections showed an average 2.9% level by year-end, which is below the 3.1% from February’s update but not fully signalling rates will be trimmed to 2.75%. Finally, Chief Economist Paul Conway said rates are now close to neutral, and Governor Christian Hawkesby also sounded quite cautious on future rate cuts saying 'we have done a lot of work'.""The key takeaway is that the RBNZ is no longer committing to a set easing path, with any further moves now likely to be driven by incoming data. While another 25bp cut to 3.0% this summer remains likely, we expect the RBNZ to move in August rather than July. We had already questioned whether rates would go below 3.0% this year, given the lack of inflation progress, and today’s hawkish tone reinforces our view that only one more cut is likely in 2025.""The RBNZ’s move away from the dovish stance seen since July 2024 is a clear positive for the NZD. We have been constructive on NZD/USD and continue to expect the pair to move back above 0.600 in the coming weeks."

12:00 Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q
Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q

11:58 DXY: FOMC minutes, core PCE this week – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) rebounded from lower grounds, owing to upside surprise from US consumer confidence and progress with EU-US trade talks. DXY was last at 99.56 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) rebounded from lower grounds, owing to upside surprise from US consumer confidence and progress with EU-US trade talks. DXY was last at 99.56 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias"Elsewhere chatters of month-end USD buy flows may also have contributed to the USD rebound. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias while RSI rose. Consolidation, with risks to the upside is not ruled out in the near term. Resistance at 100.1 (21 DMA), 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough). Next support at 97.90 (2025 low), 97.40 levels." "Today’s focus on Richmond fed manufacturing, FOMC minutes (2am tomorrow). Policy unpredictability surrounding Trump’s tariffs and ballooning debt and deficits are some of the US-centric risks that may continue to undermine confidence in the USD." "That said, we remain cautious on how month-end flows may distort price action as well as core PCE data (Friday). The risk of a firmer than expected print may lead to a reduction in USD short position (i.e. USD strength)."

11:54 USD: Data and Trump help the dollar – ING
Yesterday, we noted that the dollar needed some positive data surprises to regain firmer footing, and May’s consumer confidence figures delivered.

Yesterday, we noted that the dollar needed some positive data surprises to regain firmer footing, and May’s consumer confidence figures delivered. The index rebounded sharply to 98.0 from April’s 86, well above the 87 consensus, offering a tentative signal that the US-China deal – and, even more so, the equity rebound – have helped reassure US consumers. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index also surprised to the upside, adding to the more favourable outlook for the dollar, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.USD finds support in strong consumer confidence data"A more conciliatory tone from President Trump towards the EU, coupled with reports of pressure from some EU leaders for a quick trade deal, also contributed to the squeeze in USD shorts. Meanwhile, Japanese officials said they aim to reach a deal with the US before the G7 meeting between 15-17 June. While an EU-US deal is unlikely to include currency clauses (and would probably be USD positive), there is growing speculation that Japan may have to agree to limit JPY depreciation versus the dollar. If so, this could trigger a sharply negative USD reaction as markets price in the risk of similar FX clauses in other Asian trade deals.""The highlight of today’s US calendar is the FOMC minutes from the 7 May meeting. Markets will be looking for clues on where the Fed stands regarding the transitory nature of tariff-driven inflation. With two rate cuts priced in by year-end, the market consensus seems in line with Fed Chair Jay Powell’s cautious tone, though risks remain tilted slightly to the dovish side. It’s worth noting that the FOMC met before the US-China deal, so members were working off an average US tariff rate of 23%, not the current 13% (our estimates).""In general, markets tend to lean bearish toward the dollar. More positive data surprises are needed to rebuild confidence in US growth, and deficit worries aren’t disappearing anytime soon. When adding the themes of de-dollarisation and Trump’s plans for a weaker dollar in the longer run, we still think the greenback rallies can fade from here. We have been flagging downside risks for the dollar in the near term. The upside surprise in consumer confidence reduces those risks, but we remain cautious about chasing the DXY above 100."

11:44 European Gas rally pauses amid Norwegian outages – ING
The rally in European natural gas took a breather yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling 0.66% lower on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The rally in European natural gas took a breather yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling 0.66% lower on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.TTF slips as storage builds, JKM spread narrows"Some weakness in the JKM-TTF spread is dragging TTF lower. Meanwhile, outages in Norway have led to lower gas flows to Europe over the last week. The Troll field had power-related issues following maintenance last week; the outage might persist until this weekend." "EU gas storage continues to tick higher, standing at just under 47% full, down from 69% at the same stage last year and below the 5-year average of 58% full."

11:43 NZD/USD recovery loses steam at 0.5980
The New Zealand Dollar is paring some losses on Wednesday after having lost more than 1% on Tuesday. A hawkish RBNZ statement has provided some support to the Kiwi, but the overall USD strength is limiting upside attempts.The bank trimmed rates by 0.25% earlier today, to 3.25% as widely expected.

11:41 SEK softens despite EU optimism – ING
The Swedish krona has started the week on the softer side against the Euro, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes

The Swedish krona has started the week on the softer side against the Euro, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesSEK has been supported by equity repatriation from the US"Normally, SEK acts as a higher-beta version of the Euro and would have outperformed on positive EU news in other conditions. But the krona appears to have decoupled from the usual global risk sentiment drivers, moving instead in near-perfect asymmetry with the dollar." "Last week, US Treasury concerns coincided with a 1% drop in EUR/SEK. One reason may be that SEK has been supported by equity repatriation from the US, with negative US news accelerating these flows."

11:37 EUR/USD: Rising wedge on the charts – OCBC
Euro (EUR) fell on softer than expected French CPI, signs of progress on EU-US trade talks and broad US Dollar (USD) short covering. Pair was last at 1.1321, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) fell on softer than expected French CPI, signs of progress on EU-US trade talks and broad US Dollar (USD) short covering. Pair was last at 1.1321, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias"EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said he has a 'good call' with US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick. Earlier, French President Macron said European Commission Ursula and Trump had a 'good exchange'. Trump himself also said it was 'a very nice call', and the delay on tariff imposition would allow for the 2 sides to work on a deal." "EUR’s move lower was in line with our caution for the risk of a pullback in the near term. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias now while RSI fell from near overbought conditions. On price action, rising wedge pattern may be forming. This can be associated with a bearish reversal." "We continue to watch price action. Support at 1.1280 (21 DMA), 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high) and 1.1150 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.1420/30 levels. Decisive break puts next resistance at 1.1570 (recent high). Failing which, the pair may revert to trading recent range. Day brings 1y, 3y inflation expectations."

11:33 EUR/USD: Expected to consolidate between 1.1305 and 1.1375 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate between 1.1305 and 1.1375 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum has mostly dissipated; EUR is likely to trade in a 1.1255/1.1420 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate between 1.1305 and 1.1375 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum has mostly dissipated; EUR is likely to trade in a 1.1255/1.1420 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum has mostly dissipated24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR rose to 1.1418 on Monday and then eased off. Yesterday, Tuesday, we highlighted the following: 'Although upward momentum is slowing, there is scope for EUR to edge higher today. However, any advance is likely part of a 1.1360/1.1420 range.' Our view was incorrect, as after rising to 1.1407, EUR fell and tested the strong support level at 1.1320 (low of 1.1321). Despite declining, EUR has not gained much momentum. Today, we expect EUR to consolidate, likely between 1.1305 and 1.1375." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in EUR about a week ago. Yesterday (27 May), when EUR was at 1.1390, we indicated that 'A decisive break above 1.1435 could push EUR to 1.1475, with potential for further gains.' We also indicated that 'Conversely, should EUR break below 1.1320 (‘strong support’ level), it would mean that the EUR strength has come to an end.' We did expect EUR to drop and test the ‘strong support’ level as it reached a low of 1.1321. Although the ‘strong support’ has not been clearly breached yet, upward momentum has mostly dissipated. From here, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1255 and 1.1420. Looking ahead, as long as there is no clear break below 1.1255, EUR could see another push higher later on."

11:29 Oil: Sanction risks grow – ING
Crude oil prices came under pressure yesterday, with USD strength providing some headwinds for the market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Crude oil prices came under pressure yesterday, with USD strength providing some headwinds for the market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Risk of further sanctions against Russia"Participants are taking a wait-and-see approach to Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting, when members will decide on July output levels. The meeting, originally scheduled for Sunday, has reportedly been brought forward. Another committee within OPEC+, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, is scheduled to meet today, though it’s not expected to result in any policy changes.""The market is better supported in early morning trading today, possibly following comments overnight from President Trump about Russia. In a social media post, Trump said President Putin is “playing with fire”, suggesting frustration with Putin’s intensified attacks on Ukraine in recent days. This is despite a US push for a ceasefire. This increases the risk of further sanctions against Russia, putting Russian energy flows at risk.""The ICE gasoil market continues to show signs of tightness. The prompt gasoil timespread saw its backwardation widen to US$8/t. The crack is holding relatively firm, despite broader demand concerns. Over the last two weeks, speculators have become more constructive towards the market, switching from a net short to a net long position. As for inventories, distillate stocks in the US remain tight, at the lowest for this time of year since 2003, even as gasoil stocks remain comfortable in the ARA region in Europe."

11:25 EUR: 1.13 remains the anchor – ING
The euro has held up better than most G10 currencies, helped by positive headlines about EU-US trade negotiations, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The euro has held up better than most G10 currencies, helped by positive headlines about EU-US trade negotiations, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. 1.130 is likely an anchor, with upside risks for EUR/USD"On the data front, France posted a negative month-on-month CPI print for May, which adds to the narrative of an initial deflationary impact from tariffs on the EU. If Friday’s data from other member states confirms this trend, EUR swaps could start to price in a greater chance of ECB rates dipping below 1.75%. Today, the ECB publishes its CPI expectation surveys for April.""EUR/USD has found support around 1.130 on several occasions over the past six weeks. If US data and Trump continue to deliver positive surprises this week, a decisive break lower is possible. Still, we doubt markets are ready to price out the USD risk premium, especially with deficit concerns recently coming to the fore." "For now, we see 1.130 as a likely anchor, with upside risks for EUR/USD still dominant in the weeks ahead."

11:21 US Dollar Index steadies near 99.50 ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is steadying after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session. The DXY is trading around 99.60 during the European hours on Wednesday.

11:19 EUR/USD retreats to 1.1300, with the Dollar buoyed by good US data
EUR/USD is trading lower, around 1.1306 at the time of writing, for the second consecutive day in the early European session on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trades lower on positive US data and weak Eurozone confidence numbers.The risk-on mood following Trump’s decision to delay tariffs on Europe has favoured the US Dollar rather than the Euro.The Euro is under growing bearish momentum, with 1.1260 support in focus.EUR/USD is trading lower, around 1.1306 at the time of writing, for the second consecutive day in the early European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) is appreciating across the board, favoured by upbeat data and easing trade concerns.

Investors welcomed a significant recovery in US Consumer Confidence, which had been deteriorating during the previous six months. The survey revealed that the percentage of Americans expecting a recession in the coming months also declined.

These figures offset the decline in April’s US Durable Goods Orders, which highlights the negative impact of US President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff policy on business and manufacturing.

Beyond that, market sentiment remains buoyed by Trump's decision to delay levies on Eurozone products. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced about 1% from one-month lows, as fears of a new front in the trade war and its potential impact on global economic growth have eased.

In the Eurozone, US Consumer Confidence data failed to impress, and European Central Bank’s (ECB) member François Villeroy suggested that the bank has more room to cut interest rates. This added negative pressure on the Euro. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.09% 0.02% -0.14% 0.08% -0.02% -0.37% 0.00% EUR -0.09% -0.02% -0.20% -0.01% -0.09% -0.42% -0.03% GBP -0.02% 0.02% -0.12% 0.06% -0.05% -0.07% 0.00% JPY 0.14% 0.20% 0.12% 0.20% 0.10% -0.22% 0.22% CAD -0.08% 0.00% -0.06% -0.20% -0.09% -0.41% -0.06% AUD 0.02% 0.09% 0.05% -0.10% 0.09% -0.00% 0.05% NZD 0.37% 0.42% 0.07% 0.22% 0.41% 0.00% 0.06% CHF -0.01% 0.03% -0.01% -0.22% 0.06% -0.05% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: The Euro suffers against a firmer US Dollar
US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index improved to 98.0 in May, up from 85.7 in April. The survey showed improved expectations for income, business conditions, and employment, while fears of a recession in the next 12 months receded.

US Durable Goods Orders headline figure, on the other hand, declined by 6.3%, on the back of falling aircraft demand. April’s numbers came slightly better than the 7.9% fall anticipated by the market, failing to dent the US Dollar’s recovery.

In Europe, the German GFK Consumer Confidence Survey showed a mild improvement to -19.9 from the previous -20.8, but still remains at extremely low levels.

The Eurozone Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -15.2. The Economic Sentiment Indicator and Industrial Confidence data are improving moderately, but not enough to provide any significant support to the Euro.

The focus today will be on the release of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, which might provide further clues about the central bank’s next monetary policy steps.Technical analysis: EUR/USD broke trendline support and eyes the 1.1260 level EUR/USD is correcting lower after last week’s impulsive rally. The pair´s reversal has extended below the bottom of the ascending channel, and bears are eyeing support at 1.1255, the May 22 low, ahead of the May 19 lows at 1.1220.

On the upside, the pair might retest the reverse trendline, now at 1.1345, before extending lower. Above here, the next resistance is located at the May 27 and 26 highs,1.1400 and 1.1420, respectively.EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

11:16 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Sees more upside above 196.50
The GBP/JPY pair corrects to near 194.50 during European trading hours on Wednesday after refreshing an almost two-week high around 195.60 the previous day. The pair faces selling pressure as the Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms after a strong run-up in the past few trading days.

11:11 WTI holds gains above $61.00 as US bars Chevron from exporting Venezuelan Oil
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges higher after registering losses in the previous session, trading around $61.10 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday.

11:09 ECB survey: Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations stretch to 3.1% over next 12 months in April
The latest monthly Consumer Expectations Survey by the European Central Bank showed on Wednesday that Eurozone inflation is likely to trend higher for the year ahead in April.

11:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -51.6 to -22 in May
Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -51.6 to -22 in May

10:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. in line with expectations (6.3%) in April
Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. in line with expectations (6.3%) in April

10:55 Germany Unemployment Change registered at 34K above expectations (11K) in April
Germany Unemployment Change registered at 34K above expectations (11K) in April

10:48 Pound Sterling extends losses against US Dollar as trade concerns ease
The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its correction to near 1.3460 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling retraces further to near 1.3460 against the US Dollar as the Greenback recovers amid optimism on the EU-US trade front.The improvement in US-China trade relations has boosted US Consumer Confidence.Markets don’t expect the BoE to cut interest rates in June.The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its correction to near 1.3460 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair retreats for a second consecutive day after refreshing a three-year high at around 1.3600 on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground on hopes that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) will reach a trade deal soon.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 99.80, extending Tuesday’s recovery move.On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in a post on Truth.Social that the EU is increasing efforts to reach a bilateral trade deal. "I was extremely satisfied with the 50% Tariff allotment on the European Union, especially since they were ‘slow walking’. I have just been informed that the EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will," Trump wrote.Increasing optimism over the US-EU trade deal has helped the US Dollar claw back almost the losses seen on Friday, when US President Trump threatened to impose a flat 50% tariff on imports from the EU.Another reason behind the recent strength in the US Dollar is the upbeat US Consumer Confidence data for May. The data, released on Tuesday, showed that Consumer Confidence increased substantially to 98.0 after deteriorating for five consecutive months. The commentary from the Conference Board showed that de-escalation in US-China trade tensions contributed significantly to lifting households’ mood.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling takes a breather after a strong run-up The Pound Sterling underperforms its peers during European trading hours on Wednesday. The British currency takes a breather after a sharp rally in the past few trading days as investors look for fresh cues about whether the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates again at its June policy meeting.The BoE reduced its borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% earlier this month, with a 7-2 vote split, and guided a “gradual and cautious” interest rate cut approach.The latest strong United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for April, along with the upbeat Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, are sufficient to discourage BoE officials from cutting interest rates further.This month, the UK service inflation data, closely tracked by BoE policymakers, accelerated sharply to 5.4% year-over-year from 4.7% in March. Month-on-month, Retail Sales rose at a robust pace of 1.2%, compared to the 0.1% seen in March. UK economic growth came in at 0.7%, significantly higher than the 0.1% recorded in the last quarter of 2024.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised the UK GDP growth forecast for the current year to 1.2%, slightly higher than 1.1% anticipated earlier, on the back of an upbeat economic performance in the January-March period.This week, investors will focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be released on Friday. The inflation data is unlikely to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook as officials are expected to remain on hold until they get clarity on new economic policies under Trump’s leadership and the scope of their consequences on the economy.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling falls to near 1.3460The Pound Sterling retraces to near 1.3460 against the US Dollar from the three-year high around 1.3600 on Monday. Despite the recent decline, the outlook of the pair remains firm as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 1.3380.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is intact.On the upside, the January 2022 high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the 20-day EMA will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:34 Forex Today: US Dollar extends recovery ahead of FOMC Minutes
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 28:

10:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebound stalls above $33.00, keeps moving in range
Silver prices (XAG/USD) are posting moderate losses on Wednesday, weighed by the upbeat market sentiment, which is undermining demand for safe assets, and a firmer US Dollar.The Greenback is trading higher across the board, on the back of easing trade tensions, after Trump's decision to delay tariff

10:04 EUR/GBP holds below 0.8400 ahead of German employment data
The EUR/GBP cross trades with mild gains around 0.8390 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid the de-escalation of trade tensions between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP trades with mild gains around 0.8390 in Wednesday’s early European session.ECB’s Holzmann calls for rate cut pause until September amid trade tensions. Traders are BoE dovish bets after the stronger-than-expected UK April inflation data. The EUR/GBP cross trades with mild gains around 0.8390 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid the de-escalation of trade tensions between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US). Later on Wednesday, traders will focus on the German Unemployment Rate. US President Donald Trump halted his 50% threatened tariffs until July 9 on US imports of European goods following a weekend call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The rising hopes of a potential EU-US trade deal could lift the shared currency in the near term. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker, one of its most hawkish officials, Robert Holzmann said that the ECB should pause further interest rate cuts until at least September amid the simmering EU-US trade war. Holzmann added that he saw “no reason” for the central bank to lower rates at its June and July meetings. Holzmann’s hawkish comments provide some support to the Euro against the Pound Sterling.On the other hand, traders become increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will delay its easing cycle after the release of the stronger-than-expected growth in the UK inflation data for April. This, in turn, could boost the GBP and act as a headwind for the cross. The odds of a BoE rate cut in August were reduced to 40% by investors, down from 60% before the inflation data. However, interest rate futures pricing suggested investors saw about 37 basis points (bps) of BoE rate reductions by the end of 2025. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:00 Turkey Economic Confidence Index up to 96.7 in April from previous 96.6
Turkey Economic Confidence Index up to 96.7 in April from previous 96.6

09:50 FX option expiries for May 28 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1300 1.8b 1.1400 3b 1.1500 791m 1.1520 1.2b USD/JPY: USD amounts 141.00 1.4b 143.00 2.1b 144.00 1.9b 145.00 2.9b 145.50 1.1b AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6390 418m 0.6600 444m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3830 430m NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5725 1.1b 0.6200 1b

09:46 France Producer Prices (MoM) fell from previous -0.6% to -4.3% in April
France Producer Prices (MoM) fell from previous -0.6% to -4.3% in April

09:45 France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.8%) in April: Actual (0.3%)
France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.8%) in April: Actual (0.3%)

09:45 France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (0.1%) in 1Q
France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (0.1%) in 1Q

09:45 France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in 1Q
France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in 1Q

09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.92 per barrel, up from Tuesday’s close at $60.89.

09:00 Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) declined to 6.6B in April from previous 12.8B
Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) declined to 6.6B in April from previous 12.8B

08:58 USD/CHF gains traction above 0.8250 as traders await FOMC Minutes
The USD/CHF pair gains ground to near 0.8285 during the early European session on Wednesday. Better-than-expected US Consumer Confidence data and improved risk sentiment provide some support to the US Dollar (USD).

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Persistent US fiscal challenges, economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks might boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the CHF. The USD/CHF pair gains ground to near 0.8285 during the early European session on Wednesday. Better-than-expected US Consumer Confidence data and improved risk sentiment provide some support to the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the Swiss ZEW Survey and the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will be released later on Wednesday.The Greenback remains strong after US President Donald Trump backed away from imposing steep tariffs on EU goods. Additionally, encouraging economic signs in the United States (US) contribute to the USD’s upside. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index improved to 98.0 in May versus 86.0 prior (revised from 85.7). This reading suggested a growing optimism among US consumers. Nonetheless, investor appetite for safe-haven assets remains supported by persistent fiscal challenges in the US, economic uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions. Russian officials said early on Wednesday that Russian air defences destroyed or intercepted well over 100 Ukrainian drones far into the night over widely separated areas of Russia, per Reuters. Russia in the past week also sent waves of drones to attack Ukrainian cities.Following five consecutive rate cuts, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to cut its benchmark rate to 0% at the SNB’s upcoming policy meeting on June 19. That would end a period of positive monetary policy, the lowest in almost three years. SNB President Martin Schlegel suggested that the central bank would go sub-zero if needed. That doesn’t appear imminent for now, with only a handful of SNB policymakers expecting such a move this year. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

08:30 USD/CAD climbs to fresh weekly top, closer to mid-1.3800s ahead of FOMC minutes
The USD/CAD pair is seen prolonging this week's goodish recovery move from the 1.3685 area, or its lowest level since October 2024, for the third consecutive day on Wednesday.

08:26 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Breaks below 163.50, support appears near nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY halts its two-day winning streak, trading around 163.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The weakening of a bullish bias appears as the currency cross remains slightly below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, as suggested by the technical analysis of the daily chart.

07:54 US Dollar Index (DXY) advances to weekly top around 99.80; lacks bullish conviction
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, gains positive traction for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and moves further away from the monthly low touched earlier this week.

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The momentum lifts the index to the 99.80 region, or a fresh weekly top during the Asian session, though it seems to lack bullish conviction.The upbeat US macro data released on Tuesday helped calm recession fears, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the DXY. In fact, the US Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% in April, marking a stark turnaround from the 7.6% increase (revised from 9.2%) in the previous month. The reading, however, was better than the market expectation for a decrease of 7.9%. Adding to this, orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% during the reported month. Furthermore, the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded sharply after a prolonged fall since December 2024 and jumped to 98 in May. This represents a 12.3 points increase from 85.7 in April, marking the biggest monthly rise in four years amid an improving outlook for the economy and the labor market on the back of the US-China trade truce. This, in turn, inspires the USD bulls, though US fiscal concerns and dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations might cap any further gains.US President Donald Trump’s dubbed “Big, Beautiful Bill” was passed in the lower house last week and will be voted on in the Senate this week. The sweeping tax cuts and spending bill would add an estimated $4 trillion to the federal primary deficit over the next decade and worsen the US budget deficit. Moreover, traders ramped up their bets for at least two 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cuts by the Fed this year following the release of softer-than-expected US inflation figures earlier this month. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing aggressive USD bullish bets and positioning for any further gains. Traders might also opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC meeting minutes. This week's US economic docket also features the Prelim Q1 GDP print and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

07:38 Gold price seems vulnerable below $3,300 amid modest USD strength
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just below the $3,300 mark, close to the weekly low touched the previous day.

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A positive risk tone further undermines the XAU/USD pair, though the downside seems limited.Trade caution, US fiscal concerns, and Fed rate cut bets act as a tailwind for the precious metal.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just below the $3,300 mark, close to the weekly low touched the previous day. Better-than-expected US economic data released on Tuesday calmed recession fears and assisted the US Dollar (USD) in attracting buyers for the second straight day, which, in turn, is seen undermining the commodity. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone turns out to be another factor acting as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. However, the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs remains, which, along with geopolitical risks, should keep a lid on the market optimism. Apart from this, concerns about the worsening US fiscal situation and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further in 2025 should keep a lid on any meaningful USD upside. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the Gold price and warrants some caution before positioning for further depreciation. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid modest USD strength, positive risk toneThe US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% in April, marking a significant decline and a stark turnaround from the 7.6% increase (revised from 9.2%) in the previous month. The reading, however, was better than the market expectation for a decrease of 7.9%. Adding to this, orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% during the reported month. Moreover, the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded sharply after a prolonged decline since December 2024 and jumped to 98 in May. This represents a 12.3 points increase from 85.7 in April or the biggest monthly rise in four years amid an improving outlook for the economy and the labor market on the back of the US-China trade truce, which underpins the US Dollar. US President Donald Trump decided to postpone the proposed 50% tariffs on the European Union from June 1 until July 9, offering some relief to markets and weighing on the safe-haven Gold price. Investors, however, remain on edge amid the traded uncertainty, deep-rooted US-China trade tensions, concerns about the worsening US fiscal condition, and persistent geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, traders have been pricing in the possibility of at least two 25 basis points interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The bets were reaffirmed by signs of easing inflationary pressures. Adding to this, expectations that Trump’s dubbed “Big, Beautiful Bill”, if passed in the Senate, would worsen the US budget deficit at a faster pace than expected should keep a lid on further USD gains. On the geopolitical front, Trump on Tuesday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was playing with fire by refusing to engage in ceasefire talks with Ukraine. The remarks followed Russia's deadliest drone and missile attacks on Ukraine since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Furthermore, an Israeli official rejected claims that Hamas agreed to a new Gaza ceasefire deal proposed by the US.Traders now look forward to the release of FOMC meeting minutes for cues about the future rate-cut path, which will play a key role in influencing the USD and providing some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. This week's US economic docket also features the Prelim Q1 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Gold price could accelerate the slide once the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour timeframe is broken decisivelyFrom a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through a short-term ascending trend line was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Some follow-through selling below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and acceptance below the $3,300 mark will reaffirm the negative bias. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing traction – are yet to confirm the negative outlook. Hence, any subsequent fall could attract some buyers and find decent support near the $3,250-3,245 horizontal zone. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if broken would set the stage for a further near-term depreciating move for the Gold price. On the flip side, momentum beyond the Asian session peak, around the $3,315-3,316 area, now seems to confront some hurdle near the $3,340-3,345 region. The latter coincides with the ascending trend-line breakpoint, above which a fresh bout of a short-covering could lift the Gold price to over a two-week high, around the $3,365-3,366 zone touched last Friday. The subsequent move up should allow the XAU/USD pair to reclaim the A sustained strength beyond would be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark and climb further to the next relevant barrier near the $3,465-3,470 zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:38 NZD/USD surges above 0.5950 after RBNZ’s policy decision, FOMC Minutes awaited
NZD/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 0.5970 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains ground following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,075.98 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,090.57 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 105,860.40 per tola from INR 106,030.70 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,075.98 10 Grams 90,761.20 Tola 105,860.40 Troy Ounce 282,294.70 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Gold daily market movers: Bullion plummets on strong US Dollar and solid US Consumer Confidence US Treasury bond yields remain steady. The 10-year Treasury note yield falls six basis points (bps) down to 4.446%. Meanwhile, US real yields also declined by six basis points to 2.116%. US Consumer Confidence in May improved from 85.7 to 98.0, with the recovery attributed to the truce on tariffs. Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, said, “The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterward.” US Durable Goods Orders disappointed investors, plunged -6.3% MoM in April, down from March's 7.6% increase but exceeded forecasts of -7.8% contraction. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that interest rates should remain on hold until there is clarity on how higher duties affect price stability. Despite the backdrop, the Gold price outlook remains optimistic due to the still fragile market mood on US assets, ignited by the growing fiscal deficit in the United States, which prompted Moody’s to downgrade US government debt from AAA to AA1. Besides this, Reuters revealed that “China's net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April from March, and were the highest since March 2024, data showed.” Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 46.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:30 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges above 1.3550
The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3480 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Greenback strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on the economic signs in the United States (US).

07:04 EUR/USD falls to near 1.1300 as bond market optimism offsets impact of US-EU easing
EUR/USD continues its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.1310 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

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The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) draws support and as US yields depreciate following Japan’s indication of potential cuts in government debt issuance, which has boosted global bond markets. At the time of writing, the 10- and 30-year yields on US Treasury bonds are standing at 4.46% and 4.97%, respectively.Additionally, the Greenback received support as the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98.0 in May from the previous 86.0 reading. Meanwhile, US Durable Goods Orders fell by 6.3% in April against a 7.6% increase prior. This figure came in better than the estimated decrease of 7.9%. Traders likely await the FOMC Minutes, which are due later on Wednesday.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams emphasized the importance of inflation expectations should be well anchored. Williams wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent by responding relatively strongly when inflation begins to deviate from the target. On Tuesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that policymakers should avoid any adjustment in interest rates until reaching clear estimations of the impact on inflation due to higher tariffs.However, the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) gained support as trade tension eased between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). On Sunday, US President Donald Trump extended the tariff deadline on imports from the EU from June 1 to July 9. On Monday, the Brussels agreed to speed up trade talks with the United States to avoid a transatlantic trade war.On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump expressed his satisfaction in a post on Truth Social, noting that the EU is accelerating the process towards reaching a trade deal with the United States. Trump wrote, "I was extremely satisfied with the 50% Tariff allotment on the European Union, especially since they were 'slow walking". I have just been informed that the EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

06:06 RBNZ’s Hawkesby: Decision to hold vote on rates was healthy sign, not unusual at turning points
Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) acting Governor Christian Hawkesby explains the decision to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% at a press conference following the May monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

06:02 Japanese Yen drops to over one-week low against USD; downside seems limited
The Japanese Yen (JPY) slides to a one-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday, though the intraday downtick lacks follow-through.

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Comments from Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Katō suggested that the government will take some action to curb the recent sharp rise in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields. This, along with a generally positive risk tone, undermines the safe-haven JPY and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair amid some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying for the second straight day. The JPY bears, however, refrain from placing aggressive bets amid bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again. This marks a big divergence in comparison to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025, which should limit losses for the lower-yielding JPY. Moreover, the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and geopolitical risks should underpin the safe-haven JPY. Apart from this, the underlying USD bearish sentiment might cap further gains for the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen traders seem non-committed amid a combination of diverging forcesJapan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said this Wednesday that the government is concerned about the recent spike in yields and will closely monitor bond market situations. This comes after Reuters reported on Tuesday that Japan's Ministry of Finance will consider tweaking the composition of its bond program for the current fiscal year, which could involve cuts to its super-long bond issuance. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the outlook remains uncertain as tariff negotiations between the US and Japan are still ongoing. Ueda added that swings in short-term, and medium-term interest rates have bigger impacts on economic activities and that the central bank will closely monitor the bond market. This, along with the latest trade optimism, undermines the Japanese Yen. US President Donald Trump announced an extension of the deadline for imposing 50% tariffs on European Union imports until July 9, providing a strong boost to the global risk sentiment. This is seen as another factor undermining demand for the safe-haven JPY, though the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies remains. This, along with hawkish BoJ expectations, helps limit deeper JPY losses.BoJ officials recently showed a willingness to hike interest rates again if the economy and prices improve as projected. Adding to this, the incoming data pointed to a broadening inflation in Japan and backs the case for further policy tightening by the central bank. Investors, however, now seem convinced that BoJ policymakers will assess tariffs and trade flows before making the next policy move. In contrast, traders have been pricing in the possibility of at least two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 amid signs of easing inflationary pressure in the US. Moreover, concerns that the US budget deficit could worsen at a faster pace than previously expected on the back of US President Donald Trump's dubbed “Big, Beautiful Bill” act as a headwind for the US Dollar. Russia has refused to engage in ceasefire talks and its forces have made gains in Ukraine's northeast after the deadliest drone and missile attacks since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Meanwhile, Hamas reportedly agreed to the US ceasefire proposal for Gaza, though a US official said the deal being discussed was “unacceptable” and “disappointing”. This keeps geopolitical risks in play.Investors now look forward to the release of FOMC meeting minutes for cues about the future rate-cut path, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. The focus will then turn to the Prelim US Q1 GDP on Thursday, followed by the Tokyo CPI print and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.USD/JPY bulls now await a sustained move beyond the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level
The overnight breakout above the 143.65-143.75 confluence hurdle – comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the monthly peak – could be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bulls. Moreover, positive oscillators on the said chart support prospects for a further intraday appreciating move. However, a lack of follow-through beyond the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level and the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart are yet to confirm the constructive outlook warrant caution. Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to face stiff resistance and remain capped near the 145.00 psychological mark. This is followed by the 50% retracement level, around the 145.40 region, which if cleared should pave the way for additional gains.On the flip side, the 144.00 mark, followed by the 143.75-143.65 confluence resistance breakpoint, could offer some support to the USD/JPY pair. A convincing break below the latter will suggest that the corrective bounce has run out of steam and drag spot prices back to the 143.00 round figure. Some follow-through selling might expose the overnight swing low, around the 142.10 area, or the monthly trough. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:56 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD posts gains near $33.50 after losing over half a percent
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around $33.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, the precious metals, including Silver, faced selling pressure amid a strengthening US Dollar (USD).

05:27 NZD/USD holds positive ground above 0.5950 after RBNZ cuts rate to 3.25%
The NZD/USD pair gains ground to around 0.5965 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US dollar (USD) after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision.

05:23 Australian Dollar weakens despite steady Monthly Consumer Price Index
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday for the third successive session. The AUD/USD pair loses ground after the release of the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI).

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The AUD/USD pair loses ground after the release of the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that monthly inflation, in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers, steadied at 2.4% year-over-year in April, surpassing the expected 2.3% increase.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) restarted its cutting cycle by delivering a 25 basis points rate cut last week. The Aussie central bank acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and warned that US-China trade barriers pose downside risks to economic growth.National Australia Bank (NAB) expects the RBA to adopt a less dovish stance and continue to see the need for the central bank to return the cash rate to a neutral stance over the coming months. However, the NAB has lifted terminal rate expectation to 3.1% from the previous 2.6%.The RBA is expected to deliver further interest rate cuts in the upcoming policy meetings, which could put a limit on the Australian Dollar’s upside. Markets are pricing in a 65% odds of another rate cut in July, with expectations of a total 75 bps in easing by the first quarter of 2026. Governor Michele Bullock stated that the central bank is prepared to take additional action if the economic outlook deteriorates sharply, raising the prospect of future rate cuts.Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar extends gains amid stronger consumer confidenceThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, is rising following a more than 0.50% gain in the previous session. The DXY is trading around 99.70 at the time of writing. The Greenback received support from the stronger US Consumer Confidence data released on Tuesday. Traders likely await the FOMC Minutes, which are due later on Wednesday.The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 98.0 in May from 86.0 (revised from 85.7), suggesting a growing optimism among US consumers. Meanwhile, US Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% in April against a 7.6% increase prior (revised from 9.2%), the US Census Bureau showed on Tuesday. This figure came in better than the estimated decrease of 7.9%.Additionally, the US Dollar received some support as the long-term US yields declined. At the time of writing, the 10- and 30-year yields on US Treasury bonds are standing at 4.46% and 4.97%, respectively.The US fiscal deficit could increase further when Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” goes through the Senate floor, increasing the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. Higher bond yields can keep borrowing costs higher for consumers, businesses, and governments. Trump’s bill is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, as it would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).US Senator Ron Johnson told CNN on Sunday that "I think we have enough votes to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit.” Johnson added, “My primary focus now is spending. This is completely unacceptable. Current projections are a $2.2 trillion per year deficit.”Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, following similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.The AUD/USD pair may gain ground as the US Dollar is poised to face challenges amid rising concerns over the United States' (US) fiscal deficit. Additionally, the pair is expected to draw support from improving risk-on sentiment following the alleviated trade tension between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). US President Donald Trump extended the tariff deadline on imports from the EU from June 1 to July 9.Traders will keep an eye on Australia-China relations as China’s ambassador has criticised Australia’s plan to renege Darwin Port lease. The port was leased to the Chinese company Landbridge in 2015 for 99 years. The Chinese embassy called this decision an unfair and unethical move, per Reuters.China Industrial Profits rose 3% year-over-year in April, following a previous growth of 2.6%. Additionally, the profits increased 1.4% YoY in the first four months of 2025, advancing from 0.8% growth in the January–March period. The Global Times, a Chinese state media outlet, reported that positive developments contributed to a rise in industrial profits in April.Australian Dollar breaks below 0.6450, nine-day EMAAUD/USD is trading around 0.6440 on Wednesday, with a prevailing bullish bias. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern. However, the short-term price momentum weakened as the pair moved below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, suggesting upward momentum is in play.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6443, followed by a six-month high at 0.6537, which was recorded on May 26. A successful break above this level could reinforce the bullish bias and lead the pair to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6620.The AUD/USD pair could test, amid weakening short-term price momentum, the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6430, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6381.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.13% 0.10% -0.03% 0.09% 0.06% -0.20% 0.04% EUR -0.13% 0.00% -0.13% -0.04% -0.06% -0.29% -0.05% GBP -0.10% -0.00% -0.10% 0.00% -0.05% 0.04% -0.02% JPY 0.03% 0.13% 0.10% 0.09% 0.06% -0.15% 0.16% CAD -0.09% 0.04% -0.00% -0.09% -0.02% -0.24% -0.02% AUD -0.06% 0.06% 0.05% -0.06% 0.02% 0.10% 0.03% NZD 0.20% 0.29% -0.04% 0.15% 0.24% -0.10% -0.07% CHF -0.04% 0.05% 0.02% -0.16% 0.02% -0.03% 0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

05:18 USD/INR weakens ahead of FOMC Minutes
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Wednesday. Concerns over US trade and fiscal policies undermine the US Dollar (USD). Additionally, a decline in Crude oil prices provides some support to the Indian currency, as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer.

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Traders will closely monitor the FOMC Minutes, which will be released later on Wednesday.The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Wednesday. Concerns over US trade and fiscal policies undermine the US Dollar (USD). Additionally, a decline in Crude oil prices provides some support to the Indian currency, as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Nonetheless, foreign outflows worth $900 million from Zomato due to MSCI index rebalancing, along with the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), could weigh on the local currency. The month-end US Dollar (USD) demand from local companies and foreign banks might also contribute to the INR’s downside. Traders await the release of India’s April Industrial Output and Manufacturing Output, which are due later on Wednesday. On the US docket, the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be in the spotlight. Also, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May will be published. Indian Rupee gains ground despite a decline in equitiesThe local currency was expected to be in a range of 84.75 to 85.50, with an expectation of a Zomato outflow of $900 million due to the MSCI rebalancing, according to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. The US Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 98.0 in May from 86.0 (revised from 85.7), according to the Conference Board on Tuesday. US Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% in April, compared to a 7.6% increase in March (revised from 9.2%), the US Census Bureau showed on Tuesday. This figure came in above the market consensus of -7.9%.Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday, "There's no question the shock of tariffs is stagflationary.” Kashkari added that the officials should keep interest rates steady until there is more clarity on how higher tariffs affect inflation. USD/INR retains a bearish bias under the key 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades firmer on the day. The USD/INR pair paints a negative picture on the daily chart, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, indicating neutral momentum in the near term. USD/INR seems to be finding some support near 84.78, the low of May 26. Sustained trading below this level could lead to a retest of 84.61, the low of May 12. The next bearish target to watch is 84.00, the psychological level and the lower limit of the trend channel.On the other hand, the first upside barrier for the pair is seen at 85.55, the 100-day EMA. A decisive break above the mentioned level could pave the way to 85.75, the upper boundary of the trend channel. The additional upside filter is located at 85.10, the high of May 22. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:15 AUD/NZD slides back closer to 1.0800 after RBNZ’s widely expected 25 bps rate cut
The AUD/NZD cross attracts some dip-buying near the 1.0815 area during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through.

05:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.25%)
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.25%)

04:32 Australia’s monthly CPI inflation steadies at 2.4% YoY in April vs. 2.3% expected
Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) steadied at 2.4% in the year to April, compared to a 2.4% rise seen in March, according to the data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.

04:30 Australia Construction Work Done came in at 0%, below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q
Australia Construction Work Done came in at 0%, below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1894 vs. 7.1876 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1894 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1876 and 7.1996 Reuters estimate.

03:42 Japan’s Kato says will closely monitor bond market situations
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Wednesday that he will closely monitor bond market situations as he is concerned about a recent spike yields in Japan.

03:30 BoJ’s Ueda: Tariff negotiations mean outlook remains uncertain
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that many tariff negotiations, including those between the United States and Japan, are still ongoing, so the outlook remains uncertain. Ueda further states that the central bank will closely monitor the incoming data.

03:21 Fed's Williams says wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Wednesday that he wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent.

02:52 WTI holds below $61.00 amid supply concerns, all eyes on OPEC+ meeting
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.90 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price edges lower amid supply concerns after Iranian and US delegations made progress in their nuclear talks.

02:22 GBP/USD: Poised to buckle under the weight of its own success?
GBP/USD pared recent gains on Tuesday, snapping a six-day win streak and knocking price action away from the 1.3600 handle after the pair tapped fresh multi-year highs this week.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:03 USD/CAD rebounds above 1.3800, FOMC Minutes in focus
The USD/CAD pair posts modest gains near 1.3805 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after the stronger US Consumer Confidence data. The attention is shifted to the FOMC Minutes, which are due later on Wednesday.

01:21 South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI increased to 73 in June from previous 68
South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI increased to 73 in June from previous 68

01:05 NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs higher but bulls struggle to clear 86.00 resistance
NZD/JPY extended its rally for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, rose a slim 0.17%, but failed to clear key resistance seen at the Kijun-Sen at 85.92 to challenge the 86.00 figure. As Wednesday’s Asian session begins, the cross-pair trades at 85.81 virtually unchanged.

00:45 US yields slide as Japan’s signal shift in debt strategy
US Treasury yields fall across the whole curve due to concerns over an increase in rising global government debt supply, which sent yields rising last week, retraced somewhat on expectations that Japan could begin to issue short-term debt.

00:15 RBNZ expected to cut interest rates amid concerns over economic growth, US tariffs
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% from 3.50% after concluding its May monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to trim interest rate by 25 bps to 3.25% on Wednesday.A rate cut in May is fully priced; RBNZ updated forecasts, acting Governor Hawkesby’s presser eyed.The RBNZ's policy announcements are set to ramp up the volatility around the New Zealand Dollar.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% from 3.50% after concluding its May monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The decision will be announced at 02:00 GMT and will be followed by acting RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby’s press conference at 03:00 GMT.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to experience intense volatility on the RBNZ policy announcements and a fresh set of quarterly economic projections.What to expect from the RBNZ interest rate decision? With an interest rate cut fully locked in, all eyes will remain on the OCR forecasts published in the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for further hints on the RBNZ’s path forward on interest rates.The February MPS suggested the OCR track at 3.1% by the first quarter of 2026.Since then, US tariff developments and uncertainty over the global economic outlook have increased the downside risks to New Zealand’s growth prospects.Therefore, a downward revision to the OCR track to sub-3% wouldn’t surprise markets. Markets are currently pricing in a 60% chance that the RBNZ will drop the OCR to 2.75% by the end of the year, per Herald NZ. In the April policy statement, the central bank noted, “as the extent and effect of tariff policies become clearer, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate.”“Future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term,” the statement read.Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.5% YoY in the first quarter (Q1), compared with the 2.2% increase seen in Q4 2024, according to the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand on April 16. The reading beat the estimates of a 2.3% rise.The latest RBNZ monetary conditions survey showed that New Zealand's (NZ) two-year inflation expectations rose to 2.29% in Q2 from 2.06% in Q1.Even though the central bank has left the door open for further rate cuts, elevated inflation levels could raise questions about the timing of the next rate cut, which could happen either in July or August. In that light, the RBNZ could switch to the data-dependency mode amid lingering uncertainty over US tariff policies. How will the RBNZ interest rate decision impact the New Zealand Dollar?The NZD/USD pair hit year-to-date (YTD) highs above the 0.6000 threshold on Monday in the countdown to the RBNZ event risk. The continued US Dollar (USD) weakness due to domestic fiscal concerns and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs helps the pair stretch higher.The Kiwi pair could witness a profit-booking decline if the RBNZ explicitly signals another rate cut in July while acknowledging downside risks to the economic outlook.Additionally, a downgrade to the OCR track for this year and the first quarter of 2026 could be clearly read as dovish, weighing heavily on the New Zealand Dollar.On the other hand, the NZD could see the extension of the ongoing upward trajectory if the RBNZ hints at a pause in the next meeting amid concerns over sticky inflation. Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for NZD/USD and explains:“Risks appear skewed to the upside for the NZD/USD pair as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays well above the midline. Buyers need acceptance above the 0.6000 round level for a sustained uptrend. Further up, the October 21 high of 0.6085 will be tested en route to the 0.6150 psychological barrier.”“If the corrective decline from 2025 highs gathers steam, the initial support is aligned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5931, below which the 200-day SMA at 0.5877 will be threatened. On an extended downside, the line in the sand for buyers is seen at the 50-day SMA at 0.5853,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Next release: Wed May 28, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 3.25% Previous: 3.5% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

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Forex News Timeline

23:38 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock down to -4.236M in May 23 from previous 2.499M United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock down to -4.236M in May 23 from previous 2.499M

22:49 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Stalls below 0.8300 after Fed minutes The USD/CHF halts its advance after posting back-to-back days of gains that pushed the pair to its weekly high of 0.8290; yet, buyers remain in charge, even though the major is near its opening price at 0.8270.

22:11 Banxico Quarterly Report: Sheds 2025 GDP growth to 0.1%, further easing eyed Banco de México revealed its Quarterly Report for January –March 2025, in which the central bank revised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward, compared to the last report of 2024.

22:11 Forex Today: US GDP, employment data and Fedspeak next on tap The US Dollar (USD) maintained its bullish bias unchanged for the second day in a row on Wednesday amid steady optimism on the trade front, while a cautious tone from the FOMC Minutes also collaborated with the daily advance.

21:45 Dow Jones Industrial Average coils as equities snub Fed Meeting Minutes The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is slightly lower on Wednesday, easing to intraday lows near 42,150 as equity traders await key earnings reports from tech heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA).

21:14 GBP/USD looks upward after Fed Meeting Minutes show growing caution The Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) rate meeting on May 6-7 revealed that the Fed's wait-and-see approach has deep roots.

20:52 WTI Crude Oil price surges on cautious OPEC+ supply stance The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) convened at its Vienna headquarters on Wednesday to assess the current state of the oil market.

20:04 United States 5-Year Note Auction climbed from previous 3.995% to 4.071% United States 5-Year Note Auction climbed from previous 3.995% to 4.071%

19:00 Russia Industrial Output came in at 1.5%, above forecasts (1.1%) in April Russia Industrial Output came in at 1.5%, above forecasts (1.1%) in April

19:00 Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 2.7% (April) vs previous 5.9% Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 2.7% (April) vs previous 5.9%

19:00 Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to -1.4% in April from previous -1.5% Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to -1.4% in April from previous -1.5%

18:21 USD/CAD edges higher ahead of FOMC Minutes, with the interest rate outlook in focus The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading modestly lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with investors awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT.

18:19 CTA buying set to ignite next Gold rally – TDS CTAs will buy Gold in any scenario for prices over the coming week, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

17:24 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Trades flat near 0.5950 The NZD/USD pair gives up a majority of its initial gains and flattens around 0.5950 during North American trading hours on Wednesday.

17:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in line with forecasts (-9) in May United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in line with forecasts (-9) in May

16:26 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers above $3,300 with pressure building within a bull flag Gold prices are threatening key technical layers of support on Wednesday, with Bullion searching for a fresh catalyst to drive prices out of the confines of the bull flag pattern.

15:57 United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 6.1% in May 23 from previous 5.4% United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 6.1% in May 23 from previous 5.4%

14:33 JPY up modestly & outperforming G10 – Scotiabank Japanese Yen (JPY) is up a modest 0.2%, outperforming most of the G10 currencies in quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:32 India M3 Money Supply remains unchanged at 9.5% in May 12 India M3 Money Supply remains unchanged at 9.5% in May 12

14:27 GBP flat vs. USD, trading just below Monday’s multi-year high – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Wednesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD), trading flat around 1.3500 just below Monday’s multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:22 CAD underperforms but sits close to estimated fair value – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is the main underperformer against the softer USD in overnight trade and is holding a very minor (less than 0.1%) loss on the session so far.

14:19 USD edges lower on softer bonds, stocks – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is trading lower overall on the day, after easing back from its overnight peaks against the major currencies as global stocks and bonds slip, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:09 USD/JPY Price Forecast: 20-EMA acts as key barrier The USD/JPY pair gives back its initial gains and falls to near 144.20 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The asset faces pressure as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend Tuesday’s strong recovery move.

14:02 India Manufacturing Output above expectations (3%) in April: Actual (3.4%) India Manufacturing Output above expectations (3%) in April: Actual (3.4%)

14:00 India Industrial Output came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2%) in April India Industrial Output came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2%) in April

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -1.2% in May 23 from previous -5.1% United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -1.2% in May 23 from previous -5.1%

13:58 Higher inflation in Australia, everything as expected in New Zealand – Commerzbank The Australian inflation indicator for April, published this morning, came in at 2.4%, which is slightly higher than expected, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

13:50 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.6430/0.6485 – UOB Group Australian Dollar (AUD) does not appear to have enough momentum to continue to decline vs US Dollar (USD); it is more likely to trade in a range of 0.6430/0.6485.

13:45 Gold recovers while investors remain confident over swift progress in EU-US trade talks Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts bids and rises to near $3,320 during European trading hours on Wednesday, following an over 1% sell-off the previous day.

13:43 Euro’s role as reserve currency: a missed opportunity? – Commerzbank The dominance of the US Dollar (USD) is based on its use in cross-border transactions by third countries - i.e. its use as a so-called vehicle currency.

13:39 AUD/USD trims some losses but remains capped below the 0.6450 resistance area The Aussie Dollar is posting marginal gains on Wednesday following a 0.70% decline during the last two days.

13:16 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a lower range of 1.3480/1.3560 – UOB Group The slight increase in downward momentum suggests GBP is likely to trade in a lower range of 1.3480/1.3560.

13:05 China-US trade talks: The art of the deal – Standard Chartered Our baseline scenario is that US tariffs on China will likely stay around current levels after the 90-day truce. The tit-for-tat tariff war in April and subsequent truce indicate more caution on both sides.

13:01 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY): 3% (April) vs -1.3% Ireland Retail Sales (YoY): 3% (April) vs -1.3%

13:01 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous -0.9% to 1.1% in April Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous -0.9% to 1.1% in April

12:35 USD/CAD extends gains above 1.3800 with all eyes on the FOMC minutes The US Dollar is showing a moderate advance on Wednesday, extending gains after Tuesday’s rebound.

12:32 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.55% to 2.01% in May Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.55% to 2.01% in May

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.83% to -0.16% in May Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.83% to -0.16% in May

12:11 AUD/JPY falls below 93.00, downside seems limited as Japan considers debt issuance changes AUD/JPY halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 92.90 during the European hours on Wednesday.

12:08 USD/JPY: Near term rebound; sell rallies preferred – OCBC USD/JPY rebounded amid chatters of USD short covering, month-end flows. Pair was last at 144.03 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:04 NZD: Hawkish RBNZ cut lifts Kiwi dollar prospects – ING The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25bp to 3.25% as widely expected this morning, although the overall message was more hawkish than expected, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

12:00 Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q

11:58 DXY: FOMC minutes, core PCE this week – OCBC US Dollar (USD) rebounded from lower grounds, owing to upside surprise from US consumer confidence and progress with EU-US trade talks. DXY was last at 99.56 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

11:54 USD: Data and Trump help the dollar – ING Yesterday, we noted that the dollar needed some positive data surprises to regain firmer footing, and May’s consumer confidence figures delivered.

11:44 European Gas rally pauses amid Norwegian outages – ING The rally in European natural gas took a breather yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling 0.66% lower on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:41 SEK softens despite EU optimism – ING The Swedish krona has started the week on the softer side against the Euro, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes

11:37 EUR/USD: Rising wedge on the charts – OCBC Euro (EUR) fell on softer than expected French CPI, signs of progress on EU-US trade talks and broad US Dollar (USD) short covering. Pair was last at 1.1321, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

11:29 Oil: Sanction risks grow – ING Crude oil prices came under pressure yesterday, with USD strength providing some headwinds for the market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:25 EUR: 1.13 remains the anchor – ING The euro has held up better than most G10 currencies, helped by positive headlines about EU-US trade negotiations, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:19 EUR/USD retreats to 1.1300, with the Dollar buoyed by good US data EUR/USD is trading lower, around 1.1306 at the time of writing, for the second consecutive day in the early European session on Wednesday.

11:11 WTI holds gains above $61.00 as US bars Chevron from exporting Venezuelan Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges higher after registering losses in the previous session, trading around $61.10 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday.

11:09 ECB survey: Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations stretch to 3.1% over next 12 months in April The latest monthly Consumer Expectations Survey by the European Central Bank showed on Wednesday that Eurozone inflation is likely to trend higher for the year ahead in April.

11:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -51.6 to -22 in May Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -51.6 to -22 in May

10:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. in line with expectations (6.3%) in April Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. in line with expectations (6.3%) in April

10:55 Germany Unemployment Change registered at 34K above expectations (11K) in April Germany Unemployment Change registered at 34K above expectations (11K) in April

10:48 Pound Sterling extends losses against US Dollar as trade concerns ease The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its correction to near 1.3460 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Wednesday.

10:34 Forex Today: US Dollar extends recovery ahead of FOMC Minutes Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 28:

10:00 Turkey Economic Confidence Index up to 96.7 in April from previous 96.6 Turkey Economic Confidence Index up to 96.7 in April from previous 96.6

09:50 FX option expiries for May 28 NY cut FX option expiries for May 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

09:46 France Producer Prices (MoM) fell from previous -0.6% to -4.3% in April France Producer Prices (MoM) fell from previous -0.6% to -4.3% in April

09:45 France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.8%) in April: Actual (0.3%) France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.8%) in April: Actual (0.3%)

09:45 France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (0.1%) in 1Q France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (0.1%) in 1Q

09:45 France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in 1Q France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in 1Q

09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.92 per barrel, up from Tuesday’s close at $60.89.

09:00 Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) declined to 6.6B in April from previous 12.8B Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) declined to 6.6B in April from previous 12.8B

08:58 USD/CHF gains traction above 0.8250 as traders await FOMC Minutes The USD/CHF pair gains ground to near 0.8285 during the early European session on Wednesday. Better-than-expected US Consumer Confidence data and improved risk sentiment provide some support to the US Dollar (USD).

08:30 USD/CAD climbs to fresh weekly top, closer to mid-1.3800s ahead of FOMC minutes The USD/CAD pair is seen prolonging this week's goodish recovery move from the 1.3685 area, or its lowest level since October 2024, for the third consecutive day on Wednesday.

07:38 Gold price seems vulnerable below $3,300 amid modest USD strength Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just below the $3,300 mark, close to the weekly low touched the previous day.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:30 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges above 1.3550 The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3480 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Greenback strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on the economic signs in the United States (US).

07:04 EUR/USD falls to near 1.1300 as bond market optimism offsets impact of US-EU easing EUR/USD continues its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.1310 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

06:02 Japanese Yen drops to over one-week low against USD; downside seems limited The Japanese Yen (JPY) slides to a one-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday, though the intraday downtick lacks follow-through.

05:23 Australian Dollar weakens despite steady Monthly Consumer Price Index The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday for the third successive session. The AUD/USD pair loses ground after the release of the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI).

05:15 AUD/NZD slides back closer to 1.0800 after RBNZ’s widely expected 25 bps rate cut The AUD/NZD cross attracts some dip-buying near the 1.0815 area during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through.

05:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.25%) New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.25%)

04:30 Australia Construction Work Done came in at 0%, below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q Australia Construction Work Done came in at 0%, below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1894 vs. 7.1876 previous On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1894 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1876 and 7.1996 Reuters estimate.

03:42 Japan’s Kato says will closely monitor bond market situations Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Wednesday that he will closely monitor bond market situations as he is concerned about a recent spike yields in Japan.